That is rather a stupid comparison to say the least, we are not discussing how much
BTC will that s11 mine over the next 12 months, we are discussing about the current figures.
Your theory about a chain's hashare increasing overtime is like saying if you let your faulty 1600cc engine idle for a few hours it turns to a brand new 2000cc engine. (that's exactly how stupid
you it sounds)
I know you have nothing solid to support your false claims, so you will keep wasting my time, but i rather go do something else. nothing personal tho.
regards.
No, you clearly do not understand that the numbers shown can be high or low over a short period of time.
5 mins in CERTAINLY within the realms of a short period of time.
Heck I've seen a miner show 150% for an hour due to luck finding low diff shares.
You can even work out the probabilities of that - since it's EXACTLY the same working as the probabilities with block finding.
Miners haven't mined at 1diff since before the S2, so the difficulty produced shown on the web page is based on a much larger value also.
Edit: from the POV of a pool: if a miner mines at 19THs, what's the chance that for 90 shares, it will average worse than 18.2THs?
This is calculated using the probability density function of the Erlang distribution.
On my pool web site I call this the CDF[Erl] and show that for various pool block statistics.
My pool sets 18 shares per minute, so 90 shares would normally take 5 minutes at 19THs or 3.333 seconds per share.
If a miner, with the same 19THs specs, instead was averaging 18.2THs, it would take 19/18.2 times as long.
i.e. 104.4% or about 5 1/4 minutes
So what's the chance of 90 shares averaging 104.4% - CDR[Erl] of 90, 1.044 = 0.672371
So that means a 1 in (1 / (1-0.672371)) chance of being worse than 18.2THs = 1 in 3.05 chance - yeah pretty often.
From the POV of the miner it depends on the difficulty it mines internally, you'd have to find that out.
But lets say it does something like 1024 diff
At 1024 Diff a 19THs miner would be expected to find 19*10^12 / (1024 * 2^32) = 4.32 1024 Diff shares per second
So for 5 minutes that's ~1296 shares.
So what's the CDF[Erl] of 1296, 1.044? 0.941859
So that means a 1 in (1 / (1-0.941859)) chance of being worse than 18.2THs = 1 in 17.2 chance
i.e. you run 17 miners, or start your miner 17 times, you'd expected to get one to close to 18.2THs or worse for the first 5 minutes.
The pool Diff for a 19THs miner is 19*10^12 * (60/18) / (2^32) = 14746 Diff
Bitmain miners mine at a power of 2 - so the next power of 2 below that would be 8192 so if that is what it is mining at, then it's more likely than 1 in 17.2 by a lot.
His picture shows the pool Diff higher (65536) so either he set it himself or the pool doesn't do it too well.
