I am not in the same phase of my investment journey as the overwhelming majority of the population, including members participating in this thread. An overwhelming number of the world including members of this thread is either in accumulation phase or pre-accumulation phase. Even though I accumulate from time to time, I mostly went through my BTC accumulation in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and sure sometimes it can be difficult for any of us to know where we are at in our bitcoin journey, but I doubt that it is going to be very helpful to attempt to do what I am doing when it does not really apply to what you likely should be doing. which is accumulating bitcoin and tailoring your bitcoin accumualtion to your own circmstances.
I agree with your opinion that long-term investment requires patience and a level of foresight for those in accumulating Bitcoin. like the current situation where we have to adjust a larger budget to be able to collect 1 Bitcoin and that is of course very different from the history of those of your who bought it in 2014, 2015 and 2016 because at that time the price of Bitcoin was quite cheap and lucky for those who bought in large quantities big at that time.
Even so, we still stick to our respective positions because if we want to have some BTC in our portfolio, maybe we have to be diligent in buying every dip that occurs. DCA is one of the best strategies for long-term investment and can be applied in various situations. I mean if we miss one or two stages, we can cover the gap by buying aggressively in the next stage.
It is normal for a long-term investment portfolio to have a large amount of Bitcoin investments, but it is unusual for a deep investment portfolio to have a low Bitcoin investment. When long-term investments are mentioned, the name Bitcoin comes up naturally. Now we understand Bitcoin as a long term investment. No one would prefer any coin other than Bitcoin for long-term investment. I have a long term investment plan of my own portfolio where I invest 90% in Bitcoin and the remaining 10% in some other coin in the market. Honestly I am trusting only Bitcoin and rest 10% invested in other coins I don't trust that investment but I have bought some coins to build portfolio. I believe the portfolio I have built around Bitcoin in the long term is the right decision for me and I will get a lot out of the investment because I believe the longer the investment is held in Bitcoin the more likely it is to succeed.
I doubt that any of us can really provide very accurate assessments regarding either how much bitcoin people hold or various other aspects of their overall portfolio holdings, including the extent to which they might be diversified in other traditional assets (such as stocks, bonds, property, cash) or using shitcoins as part of what they believe to be diversification (which it is not).. there are a lot of factors that affect people's investment portfolios including likelihood that many people don't have an investment portfolio and/or they are not consciously figuring out how to best allocate it in a kind of active way. many people are in debt up to their eyeballs and frequently don't really know the difference between consumption and investment and gambling, and sure I am not trying to be patronizing, but there are differences between what any of us might recommend people do and what they actually do, and probably people who participate in forums like this and threads like this one, are going to be a bit more active in terms of figuring out their investment portfolio and its allocations as compared to the population as a whole.
Even if you reframed it as "profit booking" we are still not talking about that here in this thread. If you have a long term plan of buying BTC, then it likely is not going to matter if you continuously bought even at tops, because maybe some of the shorter term folks might have 4-10 years, but some of the longer term folks might have 15, 20, 30 or 40 years in which they are either accumulating and/or maybe getting int maintenance stage that either leads to liquidation or maybe when in maintenance stage for a while, then shaving off bitcoin here and there becomes one of the options and the person is not getting distracted by dollar nonsense of "booking profits" because all of his coins are profitable..
and yeah some of the BTC are more profitable than others, but why would it matter if s/he is shaving off 0.000001 BTC at a time when BTC prices might be in the 7 to 8 digit territory and most of his coins were gotten in the 4 digits and the lower 5 digits territory....and so maybe even some might end up getting sold in 6 digits rather than 7 or 8 digits, but still when we are looking at potential for magnitudes of BTC price moves within the timelines of some of the current BTC accumulators, why would s/he want to screw up his/her whole BTC accumulation by fucking around with taking profits in dollars when the whole weight of value may well end up hinging upon accumulating BTC and not running out of them too soon.
Do you really think others think of what you do or what you think maybe your general overview about bitcoin progression? This why most people doesn't care about their investment plans but rather what they think of is their profits as they want to utilize and maximized the profiting aspect of it rather than keep holding for a long term, even though most people here keeps yelling about the hodl hold we know that at the back when the price became much eyes appealing they might got tempteyand push out some of the fractions they felt is worth disposing at the cost of profit booking or profits utilizations.
There are a lot of people who think in terms of dollar profits and who make a lot of mistakes in the way that they invest that might end up causing them to become more nervous than they should be because they likely do not go through the process of sufficiently figuring out their BTC investment strategy in light of their personal circumstances, and so it can be more challenging in the earliest years of first getting involved in bitcoin and building a BTC investment portfolio.
Most people (in the ballpark of 99%) are not investing into bitcoin, so presumptively they don't know much if anything about bitcoin, otherwise we would have more people invested into it... and sure maybe part of the problem is that they are not invested into anything, except maybe their house (if they have one) and their retirement funds through their employer.. such as a 401k or equivalent (if they have one)
Yet we can't questions their choice of action and options since that is the real reason and motives they got associated with bitcoin, but yet are lacking the vision to know that holding for decades is where they would derived extremely joyous or profits but are subjected to have it coming slow as present of gift or kind of patients to watch while their increase and profits are being numerating as a subject of change in their capacity to hold for decades because that is their oversight overview of the future without having the long time projections towards their investments.
Sure many members of this forum are working in the direction of investing long term into bitcoin, but still we are likely a very small minority, and also even members of this forum get mixed up between bitcoin and shitcoins and trading and investing and so it sometimes can take a while to figure out some kind of a long term investing approach because many members might not even realize that they are wanting to get involved in long term investing and instead they may or may not figure that part out later. I hate to try to generalize too much but I would presume that forum members are better overall than the general public in terms of both their planning and their putting their plans into action, but I doubt that it is very much different because even though many people should be able to understand and employ basic and regular investing techniques, even forum members are sometimes going to want to attempt to play the cycles of getting in and out and sometimes just making mistakes of not adequately having their finances sufficiently together and having to sell some or all of their bitcoin (if they ended up accumulating some) at a time that is not exactly of their own choosing.
Even if you decides to present a whole lot of btc to such people or person they can be still tempted to disposal it at the cost of little changes to the difference in dollars while still are holding same values in btc, since 1.1btc still remains 1.1btc but has been subjected to change in dollars value which at present could worth $33k plus but can not bear the watching while draining gradually in dollars, that is why most people do not care how much units of bitcoin they are holding rather dollars equivalent are being driven to forcefully disposed their bitcoin at cheaper rate at the cost of profit booking or maximisation.
You are not wrong about any of this, and frequently there are needs to diversify into other assets classes and to change your allocations, and so I am not sure if I like the term profit booking, even though it amounts to a similar thing, but it starts to seem like trading if the only other asset that someone holds is dollars (or fiat), so if they are reallocating based on price movements that can be healthy even thought it might not necessarily be a good idea to retain only two assets in your investment portfolio, especially as you become more and more wealthy... and surely if some people cannot see themselves buying property, stocks, bonds, commodities and maybe other forms of cash (cash equivalents), then they might start to think that the ONLY way to diversify is into shitcoins..
And, these matters of diversification (or reallocation) are not bad problems to have (because it may well mean that your networth is going up and you are trying to figure out the extent to which you might either have too much exposure in some areas and not enough exposure in other areas).. and I like to think of the matters of having too much assets in terms of your goals that could be something like getting to fuck you status (which would be 20x to 30x the size of your annual income.. .
so probably getting that first year of your annual income saved up takes the longest, and it could take 7-15 years if you are investing 8% to 15% of your annual income just to get to the amount of one year's annual income worth of savings, and so we imagine with bitcoin that the process might get shortened and also there is potential for the amounts to get higher quicker. so sure, some folks are going to already start to feel nervous about their investment when they start to get into the 20% to 50% of their annual income,
and I am not even going to try to judge for someone else, but there are ways to attempt to figure out your approach towards ongoingly investing into bitcoin and perhaps in other asset classes in ways so that you are able to lessen your sense of dread about your BTC holdings becoming too large in terms of what other kinds of assets that you hold, and you are likely going to be in a tougher position if you do not diversify, and I am surely not talking about diversifying into shitcoins, even though some people might feel that they don't have other investment assets available to them... so maybe shitcoins might end up serving some kind of a diversification role for some people, even though i still think that it is probably better to try to stick to more traditional asset classes (namely property, stocks, bonds, commodities and cash equivalents..
not shitcoins).. but everyone will have to decide for themselves whether to diversify and how to do it in order to feel less anxious about having too much value in one asset (namely bitcoin).
Another thing that I would like to suggest, just to supplement my earlier point, is that I was not a brand new investor when I came to bitcoin since when I got into bitcoin, I already had more than 20 years investing and building my investment portfolio, so likely the ONLY reason that I could pretty much establish my BTC position in a few years is because I already had a pretty well established and diversified investment portfolio.
You have a unique way of mapping out the pattern of investment, you have really done well for yourself with the effort you put on your investment diversification and just like you said you have 20 years of investment,
My point was not so much about potentially being smart from having experiences in investing, but I was largely suggesting that when I came to BTC, I already had more than 20 years building my investment portfolio, and I am not even necessarily suggesting that my various investments performed well prior to getting into bitcoin, and even my bitcoin investment took more than 3 years before it really started to show profits and also to bring up the value of the rest of my investments (and my investment portfolio overall). So now I can proclaim to have more than 30 years in terms of investing and building my investment portfolio, but ONLY almost 10 of those years involved bitcoin.. and I do think that I learned quite a lot from being in bitcoin, but at the same time, I had modified my BTC price performance in such a way that I did not really expect the portion that I was putting into bitcoin to necessarily outperform my other investments, and largely my other investments have mostly been performing right around 5.5% per year (on average),
so when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, I hoped for better performance on average, but I was willing to take the risk that the bitcoin portion might end up going to zero and might end up dragging down my overall investment portfolio, but instead bitcoin ended up bolstering my whole investment portfolio which was largely causing it to have really outstanding average returns.. I have not calculated it exactly, but likely my overal portfolio ended up going into the 30% to 40% per year returns because of my having had added bitcoin.. and surely we know that all of the years were not positive, but looking at how bitcoin performed from late 2013 to present, we can see great performance, but also, I made several mistakes along the way too..but even with the mistakes, the bitcoin portion end up dragging up the performance of the overall investment portfolio to way higher levels.. and it seems that overall the non-bitocin portion of my investment portfolio continued to largely perform at its historical rates of around 5.5% per year.
perhaps it will be very easy for an investor with such portfolio to meet any targeted amounts of Bitcoin you want to accumulate using lump sum,
I did not lump sum too much. I did do some front loading, but I put most of my initial investment into bitcoin over the 1st year, so at first I did not really know what my target was except that I had created a 6 months budget (allowance) for myself and once the first 6 months expired, I extended a similar budget for the second 6 months, and by the time the second six months was close to running out (which was at the end of 2014), I realized that I had largely gotten to about a 10% allocation into bitcoin as compared to the other assets in my investment portfolio, and I thought that 10% was a reasonable amount to have in BTC, except we know what the BTC price did for 2015 and even 2016, which largely contributed to my continuing to mostly invest into BTC using forms of DCA throughout 2015... which got me to right around 13.5% in BTC... which I considered to feel was over-allocated, but at the same time, since the BTC price largely went from $250 to $19666 between August 2015 and December 2017, my allocation in bitcoin as compared with my other investments went from around 13.5% to 80%-ish and then dropped back down to 45%-ish and still bounced around and so an overwhelming explanation for my allocations increasing into bitcoin came from BTC price appreciation rather than from my having had put more value into BTC which I did not do so much of that putting more value into BTC after 2015..
but I still did put some more value into BTC from time to time, but mostly after 2015 and even more so after 2016, I had started to feel that I was more transitioning into BTC maintenance practices rather than BTC accumulation practices.. even though there was some mixing of various strategies, even though my sense of mostly being in a kind of maintenance status did grow after 2015 and became stronger with each year thereafter, even in spite of some of some of the BTC price fluctuations, I did not feel that I was really falling out of a kind of maintenance status because even if you think about the matter, and maybe we might concede that my average cost per BTC might have been right around $1k (after some mistakes), the BTC price went nearly 20x above my average costs and then still remained 3x above that even with the worst of the price dips, and so it becomes somewhat easy to calculate that if someone might have had felt that they had enough BTC in late 2014, but still ended up acquiring more, in 2015 and 2016, so then there were not really any feelings of not having enough at later dates if the overall strategy was maintenance and not fucking around with overly selling, so even some sells that might have brought down the quantity of my BTC, those sells were not so high as to really cause me to have to worry about having enough BTC and/or recognizing that my overall BTC had stayed largely in various degrees of profits using around a $1k per BTC cost estimate.
for example if the normal accumulation target was for 10 years to get some amounts of Bitcoin using DCA, perhaps you can lump sum to reduce the targeted years because of the price fluctuations so by buying at ones will be the best,
Actually, when I got into bitcoin, I was hoping that my BTC holdings would come close to matching the value of some of the assets in my overall investment portfolio, so probably I would have more than been willing to continue to invest into BTC on a regular basis and even DCA if the BTC price stayed down, and so then maybe after 10 years or maybe a bit more, then my BTC might come close to matching the size of the rest of my portfolio, but partially based on my having had gotten to 10% in late 2014 and then just slowly adding throughout 2015, I had not really felt any urgency to try to accumulate a lot more BTC, but just to continue to buy slowly.. yet once the BTC prices started shooting up a little in late 2015 and then even more in 2016 and then even more in 2017, I felt that I had to change some of my thinking because through BTC's price appreciation, my BTC investment had gotten close to matching all of the other investments by early 2017 and then ended up quite surpassing them and even the corrections in 2018, 2019 and 2020 kept my BTC performance in the ballpark of matching all of the other assets in my portfolio and even going quite beyond expectations so that a lifetime's price performance ended up happening in a way shorter period.. so then I would not feel bad by minimizing any of the extra value that I ended up bring into BTC, especially after 2016.
so Having a diversified investment with a good portfolio is what every investors would wish for because you can easily meet your targeted amounts of Bitcoin needed in a space of time and could also help you to have an investment to fall back on if the other one fails.
It is not necessarily easy to figure out where to have value, especially if you think about March 2020 when almost everything was crashing at the same time, but bitcoin did end up recovering better than a lot of those other assets, even though some people got sucked into selling their BTC during that time. .. but bitcoin ended up recovering way better than everything else, and so those of us who mostly hung onto our BTC during early 2020 and even later, have been greatly rewarded for maintaining that bitcoin allocation.
