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I also try to consider how different individuals have different definitions and perspectives of what "overaccumulation state" really looks like. What one person might consider to be a whole lot of bitcoin might only be just a piece of cake for another, some investors might choose to be more aggressive and some on the other hand might choose to be more conservative in their various strategies. But in the long run, it's pretty much just about finding out what really works for you and aligns pretty well with your personal financial situation, and of course being able to make necessary adjustments too.
I have gone back and back-tested my current formulas, and even though I like my current formulas for figuring out how much BTC a person might need for sustainable withdrawal. I don't really like them for figuring out when a guy might have had reached overaccumulation status.
So I am thinking that overaccumulation for starting to engage in
price-based sustainable withdrawal merely has to do with creating selling formulas that are based on the bitcoin price, and so a guy is able to see that he is ONLY selling a certain portion of his BTC stash as the BTC price goes up, yet if the BTC price does not go up then he does not sell.. yet he also might not buy more either, especially if he has concluded that he has enough or more than enough for such purposes.
To be able to justify the employment of
time-based sustainable withdrawal, then likely a person has to either have a higher quantity of BTC, or maybe he has come to a conclusion that he can live off of the amount based on the 200-WMA (bottom prices) in order to assure himself that he is not overly withdrawing from his BTC based on current spot prices, even though surely any sales are made at the BTC spot price and not at the 200-WMA, unless the BTC price happens to be suppressed at the time of the withdrawals. My own formulas allow for higher level of time-based withdrawals when the BTC price is greater percentages higher than the 200-WMA as compared to lower level of withdrawals if the BTC price is at only 25% above the 200-WMA or lower, and surely my formulas even contemplate halting withdrawals if the BTC price is significantly below the 200-WMA such as 35% below the 200-WMA.. which also seems a time to be buying bitcoin rather than selling it.. or at least just HODLing through those kinds of times, if they come in the future..
I have another problem with my own situation, since when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, I had already established some variation of a sustainable passive income from other investments (not bitcoin), yet I had figured that I could invest some extra money in bitcoin, that would end up potentially serving as a back up source of funds for my already existing investments.. So then when I assessed my having had enough or more than enough bitcoin, I had measured my bitcoin holdings in light of my other non-bitcoin holdings to conclude by late 2014 that I had enough bitcoin, since I was not then going to withdraw from the bitcoin but just sit on the bitcoin, yet since the bitcoin price continued to stay down throughout 2015, I continued to accumulate more and reached overaccumulation status.. based on my then criteria, which I may well would not have reached the same assessment based on my today's criteria.. even though I cannot turn back the clocks.
I guess the punchline is that there is no real hard and fast rule to figure out the reaching of overaccumulation status - even though it seems that price-based sustainable withdrawal seems to be justifiable towards being able to start with such price-based sustainable withdrawals at lower BTC accumulation thresholds as compared with time-based sustainable withdrawals, and yeah it might not make any sense at all to begin any sustainable withdrawals if there might be some comfort with the funds coming from other places (even including a job), yet surely some folks do want to get themselves into a position to be able to either completely quit their job(s) or perhaps to at least cut back on their need to have to work for money so they can cut down on the hours of work or change the kind of work to something more enjoyable, which then the reaching of such status may well justify some forms of either discontinuing of the accumulation of BTC in such an aggressive way (or at all), or to start to withdraw from their BTC holdings to either supplement their income or perhaps to completely provide their income and hopefully in sustainable ways.
Another thing is storing your bitcoin safely for holding, and if you do it wrongly, your holding practice can turn to be a nightmare as well.
Just like any other investments, if you keep it wrongly, your hard work could become worthless if someone stole or you lost it. Keeping your bitcoin safely is the most basic task of a hodler. Your best option is to put it on a hardware wallet and make 2-3 copies of its secret phrase then put it on unusual places that you won't forget.
There surely is more responsibility in regards to saving coins in a private wallet as compared with a custodian holding the coins, yet a lot of the empowerment of bitcoin comes from normal people both being able to hold their coins privately and also their exercising such options.
A non-custodial wallet is your alternative to a hardware wallet but you should be wary on the links you're clicking. If your device is compromised, hackers could access your wallet and drain your bitcoin inside.
A non-custodial wallet is another way of saying self-custodial, which is the same as a hardware wallet. Hardware wallets are considered to fit in the category of non-custodial and/or self-custodial.
There is a certain preference that various self-custodial wallets be open source, yet it can also be confusing to have hardware wallets with secure elements claiming to be open source, since aspects of the secure element may well be closed source. It can be difficult to figure out which wallets to recommend, and surely there is also quite a bit of self-responsibility in terms of both learning how to self-custody and how to safeguard private keys and also safeguard any back up keys... and then also be careful not to give out too much of your private key information and sometimes you may well not even want to share too much about your bitcoin storage set up, which devices you use and even the extent to which you use multi-sig and/or passphrases, while at the same time, you likely do not want to have your security so complex that you end up locking yourself out of your own coins. sometimes even something like natural disasters may require some level of geographical separation with backups.
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True, BTC can either dip or not we can’t 100% be accurate on that, but what we should try understanding is every dip or price BTC appears to be is definitely a buying opportunity if we get the long term picture..
Based on my understanding Bitcoin does not reward those who panic, it rewards those who stay patient and keep adding to their bag. Whether it’s $70K or $110K or right now at $105K, what really matters is that we should keep buying consistently and keep building our bag. I learnt this and would keep accumulating BTC for the next years to come..
We should know this is not just about short term price moves, it is about being part of something much bigger. Also Dan Held said, there will always be dips. The ones who come out on top are not the smartest traders, they’re the ones who stay committed and keep accumulating over time.
So yeah, keep buying every dip and price you find BTC and keep hodling. That’s how we WIN.
Yeah, but aren't you also holding up to 20% of your bitcoin investment size in shitcoins? I am not sure if I believe that you are practicing what you preach, and you are also still pretty new here (only 1 month) in terms of how long you may have had been buying bitcoin and having experiences that go beyond your forum registration date, and maybe you might want to better introduce yourself rather than just spouting out general bitcoin investment principles... Sure, you are not the ONLY one who does that, but it is good for us to try to get to know guys who are claiming to be talking from experiences.. but then at the same time being somewhat friendly to shitcoins, which is not generally a topic of this thread.
It is obvious I am pretty new here, and yeah, before joining the forum, I already had a way I managed my portfolio initially, I am not here to pretend that I am some OG in this space. I’m still growing which I mentioned in one of my other posts. I also mentioned that I am new to accumulating Bitcoin.
Fair enough if you are working on yourself, your investment approach and you are here to share information while learning. No problem with any of that.
Now, since I joined the forum and have also been doing the little research I could, I’ve been getting different perspectives on investment from you all and several crypto pals who have been in the game way longer than myself which is obviously giving me a new perspective entirely.
This thread is about bitcoin here, so we are mostly not talking about crypto or shitcoins, unless to perhaps denigrate them from time to time, yet anyone wanting to talk about shitcoins and/or crypto will likely need to go to some other thread.
Anyone confusing crypto and bitcoin and/or wanting to use the term crypto to describe bitcoin-related matters will likely end up showing that they do not sufficiently understand bitcoin in order to realize that using the term crypto is not making them look any smarter, even if they might be trying to use it in some kind of artistic or creative way or perhaps as a way to try to denigrate bitcoiners.
Sure, not everyone participating in this thread understands the difference between bitcoin and/or crypto, yet many times there are members pointing out that if we are trying to stay on topic and/or to be clear in our language, then it is better to not use the term crypto when we could have had used the term bitcoin in order to make our point.
Frequently when folks use the term "crypto" and also they are trying to somehow refer to bitcoin too, they either do not understand the term that they are using, so they do not understand that bitcoin and crypto is different, and maybe they do not understand that many shitcoiners will be using the term crypto to distract and mislead folks from understanding how bitcoin is different from shitcoins, since their use of the term crypto is to try to proclaim that they are all part of some same scholarly similar category, which sure might be true in theory, yet in practice, using the term crypto to describe something including bitcoin is disingenuous, ignorant, misleading, and/or confusing.. and surely there are times when the term crypto could be used without being disingenuous, ignorant, misleading, and/or confusing... such as in some situations in which the context is made clear.
It’s true that my previous investment plan might not have changed as it was my starting point before joining the forum, the only difference is I kept adding to BTC only.. Since then, I have already started seeing thing differently, seriously reconsidering my allocation as I am gaining new and better perspectives in here on the forum. And honestly, I believe one of the most important things I should be doing right now is unlearning and relearning. And trust me, I’m 100% willing to do that.
Yes. It can take some time to unlearn bad habits. Many of us frequently suggest focusing on bitcoin first, and then perhaps if we might have some curiousity in various shitcoins then to limit that to less than 10% of our time, energies and/or value, and surely you may have read that some guys believe that even 10% is too much to allow for shitcoins, yet I tend to be more open in regards to guys figuring out things for themselves, yet at the same time, I am not going to want to show signs that I am welcoming of shitcoin ideas, especially in a bitcoin thread like this.. . .and I largely don't even participate in the non-bitcoin sections of the forum where the shitcoin discussions are more welcomed. So for example in a thread like this, if any of us starts to talk favorably about any particular shitcoin, then there woudl likely end up playing out some slippery slope in regards to trying to distinguish between which shitcoin might happen to be less shitty than some other shitcoin.. which surely is distracting to a bitcoin thread topic, which frequently justifies attempting to just say no to any shitcoin discussion...
As for practicing what I preach, I am not preaching perfection, I am just sharing where I’m at and what I’m trying to improve. If anything, my posts reflect my current journey: not from a place of authority, but from someone actively shifting toward a more BTC focused approach.
Sure. I can see that as a possibility, even though I had seen some fairly strong language in your earlier post. but yeah, maybe I was reading too much into your post.. and surely some of us might also recognize various contradictions that might come out within posts and between posts, even though I am not trying to discourage you from either posting or sharing your ideas in this thread or other parts of the forum.
And you are right, I have not done a full introduction maybe I should have started there. I am just here to be part of the conversation like everyone else, to learn, and to grow alongside others. I respect the direction of each thread and will stay aligned with it. My intention is not to promote altcoins here but to be open about where i am coming from and where I’m heading…
You likely realize by now, that within bitcoin threads, we are not too friendly to shitcoin discussions, even though from time to time, some aspects of shitcoins does come up in the threads, and yeah in terms of introductions, it is understandable that guys might want to be somewhat reserved in regards to overly sharing of personal details.. yet there are other forum members who are somewhat new to the forum, yet they don't share too many details about what they are doing while at the same time they are seeming to talk about various theories in regards to what should be done and what should not be done... which those kinds of conversations can be difficult to follow too.. ... and surely, each of us have our own posting style, so I would not necessarily want to interfere with your posting style.
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For our fellow plebs who have not accumulated fully yet, hopefully they get a deeper correction because it would be good for them. More units of Bitcoin will be purchased for the same amount of fiat.
But for my own selfish reasons - Yes, I don't want a deeper correction.
In summary, sure it is possible that BTC prices might dip more from here, yet they might not...
so any low coiners or no coiners should be focusing on buying bitcoin persistently, consistently, regularly, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively, whether or not there might be further dips from here (currently in the last 4-5 hours bouncing in the lower $106ks).
During the current state of the market, I believe they may not have a choice. Although I would suggest they accumulate conservatively. It isn't the early 2023 phase of the market anymore. Plus personally, I will never do what I did during 2021 again when I suggested to friends and family that they invest aggressively with a large portion of their savings.
NEVER NEVER NEVER AGAIN.
Oh gosh!! How can you so frequently have so many dramatic stories that go from one extreme to another... or maybe they are just playing off similar themes in terms of how to communicate with others about bitcoin. I would think that basics in bitcoin involve trying to make sure that people are responsible for their own actions (or non-actions).. ... and I find it difficult to conclude that either starting out aggressively or deciding to invest into bitcoin aggressively is a bad idea, as long as the person has 4-10 years or longer for their investment timeline... and yeah, there is problem with being aggressive and being overaggressive, and so surely there could have had been some folks investing into bitcoin through out 2021 expecting the price to get to $100k or more, but then the highest it got was $65k in the first half of the year and then $69k in the second half of the year. So then they might have had been regretting all of their front loading of their investment if they ended up running out of money in 2022 and 2023.. so surely that would be a problem since anyone starting out their investment into bitcoin likely should be continuing to invest into bitcoin, yet even the ones who might have frontloaded in 2021 may well could have had gotten back into the positive in late 2023 or even somewhere in 2024.
Maybe we could use an example? Let's say that a guy in his mid-30s in 2021 only makes around $30k per year, and so maybe over the prior 6 years (between 2015 and 2021) he had saved up and invested close to his annual salary by investing around $100 per week (which included the appreciation of the money).. and maybe he also heard about bitcoin so he wanted to continue to invest into bitcoin... yet he decided to be aggressive and then withdrew $10k to invest into bitcoin and then he continued to invest $100 per week into bitcoin.
Where would he be? maybe he got around 0.182 BTC for his first $10k, but he continued to invest the $100 per week, so he ended up investing another
$21.5k since early 2021 until now, and so he accumulated an additional 0.59 BTC. So now his total amount invested into bitcoin is around $31.5k and he has around 0.772 BTC... That does not seem to be a bad place to be, even though he front loaded his bitcoin investment towards the top in 2021.
0.772 BTC has a 200-WMA value of $37k and a spot price value of $81.6k. He still likely has to keep accumulating BTC for another whole cycle or more, but he is not really in a bad place for having had stayed persistent in his buying of BTC, even if he bought his first $10k-ish towards the 2021 top. He has invested slightly more than his annual salary into bitcoin and if the bitcoin price does a 10x (and especially if the 200-WMA does a 10x), then he will be at fuck you status for his own income level.. sure he might want an income that is higher than his current income, but he still is not in a bad place, and I personally think that he could passivley draw around $3,700 per year from his current BTC investment, yet he may want to get to a place of being able to draw $40k to $50k from it, which means just keep buying bitcoin at a similar rate as he had been doing, perhaps a whole another cycle..
Part of the key to me seems to be continuing to buy until getting to a place of comfort in which there might be an assessment to lighten up on the BTC accumulation process.
You, Wind_FURY, seem to continue to error on the side of whimpy rather than aggressive, and surely over the years I have considered a buying on the dip approach to be the more whimpy approach as compared with ongoing buying of bitcoin, and so each of us has discretion in regards to where we choose to fall in terms of our level of aggressiveness in our bitcoin investment approach.
Even though you say that this is not early 2023 anymore which was largely the bottom of the dip (yet we did not know at that time), yet I also remember you in late 2023, when the price was bouncing between upper $26ks and $2k and you were proclaiming that you were waiting for low $20ks or even sub-$20k, and you have no regrets about what ended up being your level of dumb.. since at that time the BTC price was still at or below the 200WMA, yet you were wanting more and more and more before you would buy. Waiting for more dip is not a good BTC accumulation strategy for either folks who have no coins or for folks who have low coins and who are still accumulating bitcoin.. which likely anyone in their first whole cycle and frequently persistent and ongoing BTC accumulation can continue through two whole cycles before a guy should be letting off or slowing down in his ongoing BTC accumulation through buying.
