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Author Topic: Transaction to Price correlation  (Read 318 times)
pooya87
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April 26, 2019, 03:53:34 AM
 #21

My prediction for what its worth is 6K within the next few days, 8K within the next month and then breaking the important 10K barrier within 3 months.

sorry to disappoint you but what you are describing here is not a bull run specially at this point, this is a bubble you are expecting and because of that, it will not happen. the $10k in 3 months is more than 300% rise and in such a short time we can not reach it.
you are also forgetting that this current state is the INITIAL reversal stage where price slowly recovers from the 1 year long drop and market trends is switching from bear to bull. so it is bound to be slower.

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spoogle (OP)
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April 26, 2019, 09:24:16 AM
Merited by o_e_l_e_o (1)
 #22

If you are a holder since 2015, I can assume then that the big jump of 2017 happened for you without enough skill to sell at least a fraction of your bitcoins, perhaps believing that the price would grow well beyond the 20K barrier.

Therefore, I think I should not be too enthusiastic about your predictions, unless you prove that you were able to predict this great fall observed throughout 2019.

Yes you are correct, like most people at the time i knew things were getting out of hand and growing too quick in late 2017; as they say once your taxi driver asks you about bitcoin and where they can get some you know its time to get out! But accurately predicting the top is completely impossible, i thought at 12K it was getting fairly near and then of course we went all the way to 20K. At this point when it dropped a bit i thought maybe it would correct back to 14K and then climb back up again. Hindsight is always great but anyone who says they could have called the top and the subsequent year long fall from grace is obviously deluded.

Would be nice to think i could have sold 50 coins at this point and then bought them back in December for a cool 850K profit but you should never dwell on what could have been its what is going to happen that's important.

My strategy has always been a long term holder as i ultimately believe in the concept, of course its probably just as likely to correct to 3K as it is to break 6K within a few weeks but that's the fun of crypto investing.

If i wanted as easy ride i would hold coca-cola shares or invest in government bonds.
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April 26, 2019, 09:33:27 PM
 #23

The big correction was all of last year IMO.

Now banks and stock markets are listing cryptos I think it's gona explode.

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Pumared
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April 27, 2019, 01:39:06 AM
 #24

The big correction was all of last year IMO.

Now banks and stock markets are listing cryptos I think it's gona explode.

With bank entry the trend is yes, but practically any good reason drives the price and consequently the transactions since these are used to move

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0zero0
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April 28, 2019, 04:58:12 AM
 #25

Could somebody tell me how to find the number of unconfirmed transactions for a specific period of time.
You can use this site to see it represented in a graph: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,all. You can select a small area to zoom in on just that area to make it easier to pull out the exact data you want.

The highest number of unconfirmed transaction since this site starting tracking was on May 20th 2017, at 188,000. Corresponding price at this time was only around $2,000.
The highest number of unconfirmed transaction during the bull run was on December 8th 2017, at 185,000. Corresponding price at this time was around $17,000.

You can also use this chart which shows very similar (but not exactly the same) data - https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/mempool-count?timespan=all.
That's an useful site. Bookmarking it for future reference. Thanks.
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May 03, 2019, 09:29:50 PM
 #26

Could somebody tell me how to find the number of unconfirmed transactions for a specific period of time.
You can use this site to see it represented in a graph: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,all. You can select a small area to zoom in on just that area to make it easier to pull out the exact data you want.

The highest number of unconfirmed transaction since this site starting tracking was on May 20th 2017, at 188,000. Corresponding price at this time was only around $2,000.
The highest number of unconfirmed transaction during the bull run was on December 8th 2017, at 185,000. Corresponding price at this time was around $17,000.

You can also use this chart which shows very similar (but not exactly the same) data - https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/mempool-count?timespan=all.

I am the one who answers the question on the topic.  For both the low and the high the transactions remained high.

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magneto
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May 05, 2019, 08:33:00 AM
 #27

I think that the correlation should be very obvious. Since the majority of transactions are to and from exchanges, it is intuitive to think that the level of transactions as well as general economic activity within the bitcoin network will increase as trading volume and prices increase in a bull market.

However, is this figure necessarily an indicator for the future? That's not something that's so obvious imho.

It might indicate what stage of the market cycle we are at in terms of bitcoin's valuation, but it doesn't guarantee anything in terms of gains. After all, at the end of the day, on chain activity is completely independent from prices, which is one of the reasons why bitcoin is decentralised in the first place.
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May 05, 2019, 08:40:56 AM
 #28

After all, at the end of the day, on chain activity is completely independent from prices
Exactly. At the height of the last bull run, many exchanges were not batching their withdrawals, which resulted in many more transactions than were required. Now that the large exchanges are all batching, many thousands of transactions have been condensed in to a few hundred, which obviously has a huge effect on how full the mempool is. As Lightning Network becomes ever more popular, more transactions will disappear out of the mempool as they move to utilizing LN. And remembering of course that 20-25% of bitcoin transactions are currently due to VeriBlock.

There are too many factors at play here to make any firm link between transaction volume and price.
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May 10, 2019, 02:55:44 AM
 #29

After all, at the end of the day, on chain activity is completely independent from prices
Exactly. At the height of the last bull run, many exchanges were not batching their withdrawals, which resulted in many more transactions than were required. Now that the large exchanges are all batching, many thousands of transactions have been condensed in to a few hundred, which obviously has a huge effect on how full the mempool is. As Lightning Network becomes ever more popular, more transactions will disappear out of the mempool as they move to utilizing LN. And remembering of course that 20-25% of bitcoin transactions are currently due to VeriBlock.

There are too many factors at play here to make any firm link between transaction volume and price.

Exactly, I can simply send a transaction to someone else and this directly does not influence anything, and maybe not even indirectly. So that high numbers of transactions influence the price is a mistake.

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