Don't Fomo , 3800$ incoming ?

[Slow death]

I wasn't really seeing a $3800 price point in a short-mid term period, as I was expecting a bit more upside to probably $6000, but after the new Tether news, $3800 has been definitely increasingly and increasingly possible in my opinion.

Do you remember when the price was $3400? What was the opinion of most people? most people said that the price would fall to $2,500 and then fall to $1000. and other people said it was the end of bitcoin. The price does not fall below to $3000. but the price increased to the point of having increased without any good news like as usual and this should serve as a great lesson for us all, in this market the chances of some prediction coming true is very small


I prefer to wait the next few days to see how the price will behave, but I highly doubt that it will fall to $3800

This one. It's barely what 24 hours since the news came out. $5200 seems to be a strong support so I doubt that the price will go below $5000 now. Just momentarily lapses for traders to panic, or they're just simply booking their profits. And I do think that this news won't deter investors, the market is in the bullish zone for two months now without any good news so it will continue to grow and not touch $3800, IHMO.

Oh today the price went up a lot, it rose to  $5840, we were very close to reaching the  $6000



if we continue with this gradual increase, we will have great chances to end the year with the price of $8000

I agree, besides Tom Lee gave good 7 reasons for a possible increase of value and even rumours that Disney is ready to spend billions of $.

speaking in Tom Lee, Fundstrat Analyst Advises told another guy to speak

Buy Bitcoin Before Next Bull Run in H2 2019, Fundstrat Analyst Advises

is Tom Lee trying to appear less in the press to preserve his image?

[Distinctin]

is Tom Lee trying to appear less in the press to preserve his image?

He may just give limited statement because he made lots of bad prediction in the past, but he is a bullish so probably if bitcoin will continues its bullish trend, we might heard more words from him again. I cannot remember anymore what's his call for this year's price.

[pixie85]

if we continue with this gradual increase, we will have great chances to end the year with the price of $8000

If we break it and I don't think that we will without a correction and touching the new bottom somewhere at 5500. We passed this levert too fast and will come back to confirm it as support.

is Tom Lee trying to appear less in the press to preserve his image?

What image? Of the person with the most missed predictions in crypto? Tom Lee is a guy you listen to when you want to lose money.

[ausbit]

Bear market is over guys , cant you see bitcoin is going up little by little as the day passes. Im pretty sure that bitcoin heading to 10,000$  by july.

I stand by this too mate, though I don’t expect bitcoin to touch that value that soon, we might be looking at $8000 by the end of July because I dint expect the value to continue this way without breaking, there will still be retrace as usually and it might go down to $5600 shortly and then stay on it for a while before going further to touch the $6000 by month ending.

If this is the part bitcoin wants to be tracing, then what will be the target by JULY would be $8000, which is just speculation though, I don’t know the fundamental factor that may come in within the short period to change things.

[BlueStackz]

Bear market is over guys , cant you see bitcoin is going up little by little as the day passes. Im pretty sure that bitcoin heading to 10,000$  by july.

Most cryptocurrency users and believers needs to start adjusting their mind and getting use to the pattern bitcoin is trying to follow through to its ATH this time, which will be the heftiest one that will really give more investors and government the confidence they desire to see in bitcoin first before attempting to join the crypto space.

The bear market already became suppressed the moment we crossed over to $4000 and since then, bitcoin has been slowly appreciating making the market very healthy as we are not seeing a major dump that could damage the market again, and I think this is how will continue to slowly appreciate till it touches another ATH and we may never see any speedy BULL.

[mikeywith]

Thought i'd drop and update here:

as you can tell, we did close above the 50SMA on the weekly , however ! ! i am still leaning towards a re-test towards 3.8k to 4.4k or so

This scenario will of course be invalidated if we close above 6k , or 62xx$ on the BLX chart, the big question is , what are the chances of breaking above 6k vs going down?

i would say 30% to break up and moon, 70%  drop . The way i am playing the charts now is simply adding more shorts , not exactly aiming for 3.8k  , my aim is 4.2k-4.4k but that all of that can change depending on how things evolve.

if we close above 6.2k , i will of course close my shorts and suffer some loss, and enter long positions tho i don't see that happening, those who are in shorts positions, be prepared for some wicks , stay calm and pay attention to candle closing and not just a wick.

 

[Pursuer]

this was a very good educational experience for everyone who "panicked" here thinking a drop is coming. it can teach you not to go against the market trend when it is obviously in an upward movement just because you saw SMAs looking a certain way because they don't indicate anything specially when all the rest of the signs (the market trend, the sentiment, the volume,...) pointing to a rise instead.

[upsidedown75]

Thought i'd drop and update here:

as you can tell, we did close above the 50SMA on the weekly , however ! ! i am still leaning towards a re-test towards 3.8k to 4.4k or so

This scenario will of course be invalidated if we close above 6k , or 62xx$ on the BLX chart, the big question is , what are the chances of breaking above 6k vs going down?

i would say 30% to break up and moon, 70%  drop . The way i am playing the charts now is simply adding more shorts , not exactly aiming for 3.8k  , my aim is 4.2k-4.4k but that all of that can change depending on how things evolve.

if we close above 6.2k , i will of course close my shorts and suffer some loss, and enter long positions tho i don't see that happening, those who are in shorts positions, be prepared for some wicks , stay calm and pay attention to candle closing and not just a wick.

You should notice by now that TA doesn’t really work that much in predicting the long term value of Bitcoin, this is exactly the same way someone who I believe could read TA better than me, practically told me that it will be impossible for bitcoin to break the barrier of $6000 without first having a retest of $4800, and advised that I never buy more for now, but to sell while waiting for the retest, look at the value now.

I am glad I dint follow his suggestion and decided to go with mine. We broke the barrier of and I see that this may be how we will continue to increase until probably there will be a FUD news that will pull it backward.

[EastSound]

-snip-

You should notice by now that TA doesn’t really work that much in predicting the long term value of Bitcoin, this is exactly the same way someone who I believe could read TA better than me, practically told me that it will be impossible for bitcoin to break the barrier of $6000 without first having a retest of $4800, and advised that I never buy more for now, but to sell while waiting for the retest, look at the value now.

I am glad I dint follow his suggestion and decided to go with mine. We broke the barrier of and I see that this may be how we will continue to increase until probably there will be a FUD news that will pull it backward.

If you understand from his original and update post. His readings arent for long-term, the speculation presented are for short-term.

being updated on what is happening in crypto is the best indicator for price, not drawing lines and circles on a chart.

[fullhdpixel]

When i look at these beautiful pictures and read the rationales that cryptocurrency experts are willing to provide in abundance, then a picture comes to my mind when a carrot is hung near the face of a poor donkey and manipulated with him. Sometimes it is better to be in calm and continue to keep coins without being tempted by such forecasts.

Remaining calm and trade base on the analysis you have done is what separates amateur from professionals traders.  I think we have see many analysis like this in the past and many of them did not come to pass and we just need to wait for time to tell.  If you sell because of another person analysis you may blame yourself in future.

Hmm, different speculation here and there, I though technical analysis is meant to give same report generally if it is well read, how come yours is giving you 11k while others are getting $8k in 3 months’ time, anyway, he market is really unpredictable and speculative tools is not that very much active for a long term prediction, we need to rely more on what we see on news, because those factors we see on news are the ones that will really determine the movement of bitcoin, either its heading for the BULL or heading for a retrace, but whatever the case maybe, and no matter the pull back, the future is what I know is very bright.

[romero121]

$3800 was a long back FOMO, once after price reaching $4200 it suddenly dropped low to $3800. Further when the price grew reaching $4200 the FOMO was felt among the users. By the same time there were predictions around the market from experts stating that the price will fall low to $3000 or will cross $4500. To the good the market crossed $4500 and the same has been carried forward with the ongoing bull market.

[bigvito19]

I know most of you guys hate it when someone points out a bearish set-up , we all want lambos but facts must be stated.


last month i started this topic > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5125728.msg50358025#msg50358025


i mentioned that if we were to close above 20SMA on the weekly, we will head to the 50SMA which was at about 5600$ , that was when btc price was struggling to break 4000$, surprisingly , it did exactly that, despite the low probability.


This suggests that we can very likely continue with the same structure, let's look at the chart. 




looking back at july 2015 , we can see that right after testing the 50SMA we head straight back to the 200SMA , which now sits at around 3600$ , but with a bit of room till the price gets there, it should be at around 3700$-3800$ , also notice that we can have a wick like we did back then, that wick can go to as low as 3300$.


this , plus being at probably the strongest resistance area that we had since day 1 in bitcoin , breaking that from the first trial is not very possible, a good run of correction to the down side is very high likely going to happen.


so don't fomo, don't panic, if the 2015 chart is to repeat itself, in about a month from now, we should mark the our bull-market-starting-point.



*This set up gets invalidated if we close above 6k
*a correction is very likely, but no guarantee we going that low , so buying at possible support areas is the best practice.

This is not a financial advice




let's see what you guys got to say about this, hopping to see some counter-TA and not some crystal ball or my girlfriend thinks so b.s  .

also, moon guys, don't hate , i am trying just trying to warn you about a very possible scenario.


Good luck

Seems like you're wrong, you can't predict the markets...

[mikeywith]

this was a very good educational experience for everyone who "panicked" here thinking a drop is coming.

Nothing TA wise pointed to a movement to the upside, everything was screaming down, and it just did not work this time, it's normal it happens quite often because TA is not a crystal ball.

using the term "panicked"  makes me think that you are not a day trader, which is why you shouldn't be reading any TAs because they will be of no use to you, anybody who knows about TA would have shorted the 5.8k region because the probability of falling from a resistance is more likely than not , but whatever the plan failed  and that happens every day, and we did close above 6k which means that shorting at that point is useless, and entering long position is the proper move.

this is what i mentioned

if we close above 6.2k , i will of course close my shorts and suffer some loss, and enter long positions

Update

i took a loss on my all of last shorts with the an average loss of about -7.4% , but I entered long and i am already at about 6% profit , I did close all my long positions too at current price 6860 , not going to fight the 6800 level , in fact i am thinking of opening a few short position for a possible correction to the lower 6k area or lower.

The key here is not to get married to one side of the trend and admit that you were wrong when  it happens and act based on the current situation in front of you


I am also going to be focusing more on ALTs , when BTC domince gets this high , there are always better chances with ALTs than with BTC

I will of course keep this chart updated

[justspare]

this was a very good educational experience for everyone who "panicked" here thinking a drop is coming. it can teach you not to go against the market trend when it is obviously in an upward movement just because you saw SMAs looking a certain way because they don't indicate anything specially when all the rest of the signs (the market trend, the sentiment, the volume,...) pointing to a rise instead.

I am a bitcoin believer and I have substantial investment in bitcoin till date but I still believe that there will be a very big retrace soon back to $4000 or $4500 possibly, you are right that the market is obviously switching to an uptrend, but presently, the market has been overbought, so there is a possibility for a big retrace before we fully embark on the uptrend that will lead us to the bull run.

So for a long term holder, they should keep continue holding but for short term investment, this is not the right time for them to buy if I may say, so they should be patient. Anyway, I know time will tell and we will know who is good at it.

[--DarkSecrets--]

this was a very good educational experience for everyone who "panicked" here thinking a drop is coming. it can teach you not to go against the market trend when it is obviously in an upward movement just because you saw SMAs looking a certain way because they don't indicate anything specially when all the rest of the signs (the market trend, the sentiment, the volume,...) pointing to a rise instead.

I am a bitcoin believer and I have substantial investment in bitcoin till date but I still believe that there will be a very big retrace soon back to $4000 or $4500 possibly, you are right that the market is obviously switching to an uptrend, but presently, the market has been overbought, so there is a possibility for a big retrace before we fully embark on the uptrend that will lead us to the bull run.

So for a long term holder, they should keep continue holding but for short term investment, this is not the right time for them to buy if I may say, so they should be patient. Anyway, I know time will tell and we will know who is good at it.

This time i am thinking that most people have been caught in the bait in short FOMO joe's are in the market. I am fully confident that in this parabolic pump a surprise dump or retrace like everyone is not expecting. I only disagree right now on
$4500 or below because i am seeing that if we correct on this price range we may only retest $5000-$5500 area which is built with a psychological strong support and conitnue to move up again before the next big dump.

[egyptian magician]

Anyone keeping an eye on the NVT indicator? It's at 188, which is the most overbought reading... ever. Even higher than December 2017. How much more gas can possibly be in the tank for this rally??

[cryptjh]

The chances that bitcoins will go down with 50% to $3800 seems very small now, the bitcoin market is much bigger than in 2015, I think bitcoins will go sideways for some times and then try to break bullish, testing $9k or $10k, with one year to next halving we are now in a period where people buy more bitcoins than they want to sell.

[gabbie2010]

The chances that bitcoins will go down with 50% to $3800 seems very small now, the bitcoin market is much bigger than in 2015, I think bitcoins will go sideways for some times and then try to break bullish, testing $9k or $10k, with one year to next halving we are now in a period where people buy more bitcoins than they want to sell.

Bitcoin had not conform with most TA speculated in this thread its retracement or pullback to $3800 is not feasible now many investors had come on board thus triggering the present bullish runs, the price had retraced and hits or met a strong support at $6600 to $7000 then continues to be bullish again I agreed with you that rather for the price to fall down to $3800 it will ranges or moves sideways for some time before  journey upward again.

[STT]

Never heard of the NVT indicator, explain that one.   I thought we had moved quite steadily upto recently.   It might backtrack but probably not further then 6000 now I guess.

What I'm waiting for to observe weakness is a break of a simple blue line underlining the recent action.   It has broken below on the last sell but did not close there to hold a negative trend.   A test of 6600 seems fair enough and then draw further conclusions if that should happen

[adaseb]

this was a very good educational experience for everyone who "panicked" here thinking a drop is coming.

Nothing TA wise pointed to a movement to the upside, everything was screaming down, and it just did not work this time, it's normal it happens quite often because TA is not a crystal ball.

using the term "panicked"  makes me think that you are not a day trader, which is why you shouldn't be reading any TAs because they will be of no use to you, anybody who knows about TA would have shorted the 5.8k region because the probability of falling from a resistance is more likely than not , but whatever the plan failed  and that happens every day, and we did close above 6k which means that shorting at that point is useless, and entering long position is the proper move.

this is what i mentioned

if we close above 6.2k , i will of course close my shorts and suffer some loss, and enter long positions

Update

i took a loss on my all of last shorts with the an average loss of about -7.4% , but I entered long and i am already at about 6% profit , I did close all my long positions too at current price 6860 , not going to fight the 6800 level , in fact i am thinking of opening a few short position for a possible correction to the lower 6k area or lower.

The key here is not to get married to one side of the trend and admit that you were wrong when  it happens and act based on the current situation in front of you


I am also going to be focusing more on ALTs , when BTC domince gets this high , there are always better chances with ALTs than with BTC

I will of course keep this chart updated

You weren't wrong with your analysis entirely even if the trade was a loss. I am pretty sure everybody assumed $5800-$6000 would be the top since its basically strong resistance and everybody either sold, hedged, or entered into a short position.

The fact that it engulfed that area very fast was bullish and hinted that we might see more upside which was true since we quickly went into the $8300 shortly after.

Right now the bull trend is too strong to fight, you need to wait for more confirmations before shorting.