Has the monthly RSI told the whole story the entire time?

[soxxx]

It accurately showed the top in both 2013 and 2017, it also accurately showed the bottom in 2015, and it appears to have shown the bottom in 2018.....now this can be up for debate but it is also showing that the accumulation period has been much shorter than last time and is possibly over. If the RSI goes above 54 then it could be off to the races, we are pretty much at a resistance point right now, however when it reach this RSI level last time, the Bull run was at the very beginning. I would keep an eye on that, if it gets rejected then we will likely see a double bottom for the RSI which would make a lot of sense, however if it breaks through the bull market is likely on, it also would probably Bitcoins price is somewhere above $6000.....



*someone quote my image, im a newbie

[1714682754]

1714682754

[1714682754]

1714682754

[1714682754]

1714682754

[1714682754]

1714682754

[figmentofmyass]

matching up RSI levels (especially with such little data) is akin to fractal analysis. it's like voodoo. i'd rather look at the price structure. RSI and similar indicators are just derivatives of price---we have better data already (the price itself).

until we're holding above $6k consistently and trapping all the bears who sold over the last 6+ months, i don't see evidence of a bull market. RSI in the 50s = yawn. let know when we're overbought on the monthly---then things will get interesting!

[adaseb]

It accurately showed the top in both 2013 and 2017, it also accurately showed the bottom in 2015, and it appears to have shown the bottom in 2018.....now this can be up for debate but it is also showing that the accumulation period has been much shorter than last time and is possibly over. If the RSI goes above 54 then it could be off to the races, we are pretty much at a resistance point right now, however when it reach this RSI level last time, the Bull run was at the very beginning. I would keep an eye on that, if it gets rejected then we will likely see a double bottom for the RSI which would make a lot of sense, however if it breaks through the bull market is likely on, it also would probably Bitcoins price is somewhere above $6000.....



*someone quote my image, im a newbie

I requoted your post to save people the trouble of clicking the link to see the chart.

The issue with this in my opinion is that it only happened once in the past and its not a good guage. Basically since BTC is about 10 years old, using a monthly chart is not a good indicator, especially since it can easily dip lower and it would still look bullish on the monthly charts.

In my opinion use the weekly chart max as any type of analysis, basically the 200W MA has held back in December and it might provide good support if it ever breaks the $4700 area and $4200 support.

[BitHodler]

In my opinion use the weekly chart max as any type of analysis, basically the 200W MA has held back in December and it might provide good support if it ever breaks the $4700 area and $4200 support.

It did hold, but the thing with support levels is that the more often you test them, the more likely it is for them to break. We have had two tests of the 200WMA after the bottom already, and I prefer to not see it be tested again.

Currently the 200WMA hovers around $3600 and a break or a wick could easily retest the previous low (double negative in my opinion). The close after that will tell what the market will do, but again, I rather avoid these retests.

[Pursuer]

"accurately" is an overstatement. nothing could have predicted the top and the bottom of the recent ATH and the bottom afterwards.  specially since the bottom was the product of a big manipulation in 2015 where a large scale "bitcoin is dead" campaign started running which crashed price to $150 momentarily.

[omonuyak]

It accurately showed the top in both 2013 and 2017, it also accurately showed the bottom in 2015, and it appears to have shown the bottom in 2018.....now this can be up for debate but it is also showing that the accumulation period has been much shorter than last time and is possibly over. If the RSI goes above 54 then it could be off to the races, we are pretty much at a resistance point right now, however when it reach this RSI level last time, the Bull run was at the very beginning. I would keep an eye on that, if it gets rejected then we will likely see a double bottom for the RSI which would make a lot of sense, however if it breaks through the bull market is likely on, it also would probably Bitcoins price is somewhere above $6000.....



*someone quote my image, im a newbie

I do agree with you and many speculators that has spoken on the present market conditions.  If you look at the nature of things you will understand that we are more of bullish trend now and bitcoin is in good condition now compared to 2018. Though rsi is a langing indicators it is clear that op has indeept knowledge on the market.

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

For the past years, the halving was considered to be one of the key factors in the rising and the downfall of the prices. When the first halving took place in 2012 the subsequent year (2013) was the pumping year which brought the btc to more than $1000 but later on due to the speculative increase, they were  suddenly sold by the investors which made the price to tank. Similarly FOMO was one of the particular reasons for the huge surge in prices and most of the world population were well aware of btc and other cryptocurrencies as a get rich quick scheme which pushed them to invest more in crypto. With more governments issuing bans and control over the cryptocurrencies, the price fell which was accompanied with a fear among the investors.

The resistant levels are a little bit sort of a last hope for the FOMO investors for the whole last year. Last year we were trading at sideways and got tanked to $3500. But we need to note that in order to reach the real pricings, we need to go have some real good news which brings in the real pump for the whole crypto market.

[Adriano2010]

I also think the halving influence the price, i think next year we can have a bull run before halving and possible a new ATH for bitcoin, and when market is on red is because a lot of money are cashout from market.

[1Referee]

specially since the bottom was the product of a big manipulation in 2015 where a large scale "bitcoin is dead" campaign started running which crashed price to $150 momentarily.

I am not sure if that was actually manipulation. Back in 2015 there wasn't all that much going on for Bitcoin that made it different than the Bitcoin it was in 2011-2014. On top of that, the bottom of $150 was the result of bots chain selling causing a flash crash, which was quickly bought up.

I remember trying to buy into it, but didn't come further than less than a whole Bitcoin that my buy order managed to obtain a few $$ shy of $200.

In general, end of the year tops are quite easy to call considering that the first few months of each new year are the worst months for Bitcoin. If you sell mid-ish December, you with a very high probability will be able to buy back much lower the few months after that. Look up the charts.

[exstasie]

specially since the bottom was the product of a big manipulation in 2015 where a large scale "bitcoin is dead" campaign started running which crashed price to $150 momentarily.

I am not sure if that was actually manipulation. Back in 2015 there wasn't all that much going on for Bitcoin that made it different than the Bitcoin it was in 2011-2014. On top of that, the bottom of $150 was the result of bots chain selling causing a flash crash, which was quickly bought up.

I don't think it was bots that caused anything. Most algorithms just trade in the direction of the trend and repair their positions during corrections to that trend. That crash was a result of strong supply based in fear and panic, and it was exacerbated by overleveraged longs on Bitfinex. Bots adding fuel to the fire was just a byproduct of extremely bearish sentiment.

In particular, the August crash below $200 was essentially caused by a selloff and margin cascade on Bitfinex. I remember that day quite well. These were long squeezes.

[cryptjh]

It accurately showed the top in both 2013 and 2017, it also accurately showed the bottom in 2015, and it appears to have shown the bottom in 2018.....now this can be up for debate but it is also showing that the accumulation period has been much shorter than last time and is possibly over. If the RSI goes above 54 then it could be off to the races, we are pretty much at a resistance point right now, however when it reach this RSI level last time, the Bull run was at the very beginning. I would keep an eye on that, if it gets rejected then we will likely see a double bottom for the RSI which would make a lot of sense, however if it breaks through the bull market is likely on, it also would probably Bitcoins price is somewhere above $6000.....



*someone quote my image, im a newbie

After the long sell-off in 2018, the reversal of the RSI was expected, we are now in the 4 green months in a row. The parallel to 2015 is there and this looks like we have reached the bottom, but we might retest it, before next bull run.

[soxxx]

Update:

The monthly RSI is at a 53.5, either we are about to get rejected here, or we are about begin our ascent to the moon....

I think the ascent is more likely, we still have room to go higher and break this.

[South Park]

It accurately showed the top in both 2013 and 2017, it also accurately showed the bottom in 2015, and it appears to have shown the bottom in 2018.....now this can be up for debate but it is also showing that the accumulation period has been much shorter than last time and is possibly over. If the RSI goes above 54 then it could be off to the races, we are pretty much at a resistance point right now, however when it reach this RSI level last time, the Bull run was at the very beginning. I would keep an eye on that, if it gets rejected then we will likely see a double bottom for the RSI which would make a lot of sense, however if it breaks through the bull market is likely on, it also would probably Bitcoins price is somewhere above $6000.....

snip image

*someone quote my image, im a newbie

One of the many mistakes investors make is that you could always find and indicator or combination of indicators that perfectly describes the past, but when you test your strategy with new data then the strategy fails, this is called overfitting and it is a classic mistake that traders make, unless you backtest your theory against multiple markets and then you try your strategy on new data and confirm it then what you are seeing is nothing more than a random occurrence.

[buwaytress]

I remember in 2018 at several points, RSI was screaming buy. Week after Week after Month, and yet selling pressure maintained, profit taking happened at every rally, then RSI tapered off until Oct-Nov when we were all tempted to think that we're finally in consolidation.

6 months later we're back at the same price point, but RSI hasn't even been as strong indicators as last year, so it's telling the story sure, but the shoe just happens to fit right now, that's all.