China mining decision May 7

[WinslowIII]

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

[pooya87]

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately,

that would have been true if 70% of the hashrate was in China which it clearly isn't.

Chinese government being unsure about bitcoin is nothing new. it has been going on for nearly as long as bitcoin existed. the more they pushed, the more it meant the small number of miners that were in China leaving China into areas outside of their jurisdiction.

[nc50lc]

Well, it's true that China will drop the decision within this week.
But where the heck did you find the data of the ratio of miners per country where China has 70% of the total hashrate?

Another thing is: total hashrate and the price can't really directly affect each other.
If the hashrate dropped due to closing Chinese mining farms, it's still up to them to immediately liquidate their crypto assets (especially Bitcoin) to be able to affect the market.

That might be not a far-fetched idea if trading or Cryptocurrency in general will be illegal in China alone.
Mining to be illegal, not much of a market buzz.

[WinslowIII]

Wth are you guys talking about China doesn't account for 70% of the bitcoin hashrate? this info is everywhere if you google the question, here's just one article:
https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/china/

What I'm saying is, if 70% of the hashrate stops on a dime (and it will with the official decision) then that gives the rest of the miners who aren't located in China a much larger coin reward until the slack is picked up in other countries. Why wouldn't this result in a price drop? Think about it - 30% of the miners were getting 30% of the coin rewards, within a day these same miners will now split 100% of the coin rewards.

[tokeweed]

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately,

that would have been true if 70% of the hashrate was in China which it clearly isn't.

Chinese government being unsure about bitcoin is nothing new. it has been going on for nearly as long as bitcoin existed. the more they pushed, the more it meant the small number of miners that were in China leaving China into areas outside of their jurisdiction.

And here's the thing.  The fact that BTC has broken out and keeps breaking out could mean that insiders know the decision is gonna be favorable to BTC.  If everybody was so spooked by the coming decision, everything would be dropping like a rock right now.  IMHO.

[WinslowIII]

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately,

that would have been true if 70% of the hashrate was in China which it clearly isn't.

Chinese government being unsure about bitcoin is nothing new. it has been going on for nearly as long as bitcoin existed. the more they pushed, the more it meant the small number of miners that were in China leaving China into areas outside of their jurisdiction.

And here's the thing.  The fact that BTC has broken out and keeps breaking out could mean that insiders know the decision is gonna be favorable to BTC.  If everybody was so spooked by the coming decision, everything would be dropping like a rock right now.  IMHO.

Well, what is a favorable decision? if they announce that mining can continue, then things go on as they were with mining continuing to be centralized in China. If they announce it is now illegal and miners must stop using cheap China electricity and shut down immediately, how could that be favorable in the short term, when the other miners will now be getting like 3x the bitcoin for the same work? Long term it would favor the price because the cost of mining will go up. But short term - why would the price be stable or continue to go up?

Why am I the only one talking about this decision that will happen in 3 days? seems like a big deal, what am I missing here?

[tokeweed]

^  So what are you saying?  Either way BTC is f*cked and should drop like rock...?    It won't.  But I guess some people who haven't bought any at the recent lows would love to see it happen. 

[WinslowIII]

^  So what are you saying?  Either way BTC is f*cked and should drop like rock...?    It won't.  But I guess some people who haven't bought any at the recent lows would love to see it happen.  

I would think if they decide to continue allowing mining that the price would continue on the course it's on, because this is in effect no change. However, I think the China mining ban will for sure be announced - why would they ignore the committee they set up to examine this situation's recommendation?
Explain to me how coin rewards suddenly going up 300% for remaining miners would not result in a temporary price drop? And how would a loss of 70% of the network hashrate effect the network? will trxs slow to a crawl? that's a huge drop to happen all of a sudden.
And stfu with the fud comments, this is a serious question that deserves discussion. If you don't have anything constructive to add just move along.

[tokeweed]

^  Yup.  All that would def be bad.  But it's not happenning.  And here's the thing...  Nobody cares if anybody wants to talk about it.  Lololol.

Edit:  And I'm not trolling you or anything but all the China ban stuff is getting old.  BTC isn't going anywhere.

[Adriano2010]

Even if there the miners from China will be stopped and some miners will start sell their bitcoins, i don't think all miners will sell their bitcoins and the price will not drop too much.

[coinplus]

Chinese mining is not as big of a deal as people make it out to be. People make it look like it is similar to when china banned ICO and than following that ICO went down so when they ban mining the same will happen. They are not the same thing, first of all ICO did get banned in China around the same time ICO started to lose its appeal so it got lower all around the world not just China and that is why we can't say ICO dropped because of the Chinese ban.

On the plus side right now bitcoin prices are going up which means that bitcoin mining will get much more attention whereas ICO was dropping in attention globally, so we are going to see China doing something against the current hype which will have much less affects on the price as well. I feel like nothing at all will happen.

[WinslowIII]

Chinese mining is not as big of a deal as people make it out to be. People make it look like it is similar to when china banned ICO and than following that ICO went down so when they ban mining the same will happen. They are not the same thing, first of all ICO did get banned in China around the same time ICO started to lose its appeal so it got lower all around the world not just China and that is why we can't say ICO dropped because of the Chinese ban.

On the plus side right now bitcoin prices are going up which means that bitcoin mining will get much more attention whereas ICO was dropping in attention globally, so we are going to see China doing something against the current hype which will have much less affects on the price as well. I feel like nothing at all will happen.

I guess we will find out Tuesday, but I don't see how a change like that wouldn't affect the price at least temporarily.

[exstasie]

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before.

I've been reading for years about how larger operations like Bitmain are moving out of China and establishing globally distributed mining farms. This threat has been looming for years. I don't believe for a second that the biggest Bitcoin miners haven't been preparing for it.

The hash rate you're seeing pointed at Chinese pools is not the same as the hash rate located in China.

There's a strong possibility (like all other "China bans Bitcoin" moments) this is just a "nothing" event and nothing will happen. It looks like Chinese miners aren't worried about it at all: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-minings-new-bidding-war

[2chase]

It seems to me that we all should not panic and expect any catastrophic scenarios, even if China responds rather harshly about this issue, then I don’t think that this will lead to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin. There may be a slight drawdown in the price, but no more than that.

[chenille]

It seems to me that we all should not panic and expect any catastrophic scenarios, even if China responds rather harshly about this issue, then I don’t think that this will lead to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin. There may be a slight drawdown in the price, but no more than that.

I don't think it will affect Bitcoin price, only hashrate if something happens at all. The Chinese government has announced a ban of mining many times but never forced any action and maybe that's what will happen this time again. If they are really going to enforce a complete ban of mining the big firms will shut down in first line but all private miners can still be undetected. China is a big country with huge population and no chance to spot private miners.

[seoincorporation]

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

Maybe the bump and btc going to $6k is a signal saying china will not ban bitcoin, or maybe is a small bump before the desicion. At the end any desition god or bad will affect bitcoin price. I would say china will not ban mining, but lets see..

[Jating]

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

70% where do you get that number?

Of course if they stop or ban mining then the price could be affected negatively. But I think big miners have already a plan B in place in case Chinese government banned bitcoin mining. And I don't think they will be caught with their pants down.

Maybe this time they already have moved somewhere else, so there will be net effect, but I don't think it will be on long term though.

[WinslowIII]

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

70% where do you get that number?

Of course if they stop or ban mining then the price could be affected negatively. But I think big miners have already a plan B in place in case Chinese government banned bitcoin mining. And I don't think they will be caught with their pants down.

Maybe this time they already have moved somewhere else, so there will be net effect, but I don't think it will be on long term though.

The whole reason so much mining is done in China is the cheap electricity, so I fail to understand people who think this decision won't have any impact on price.
Another issue I'm wondering about is how are Chinese miners selling the crypto they mine since they can't legally sell it in China? have many mining rewards for the past year have been held by Chinese miners? if that's the case, and mining is stopped, could this create more selling pressure from the miners in other countries who are free to sell all the increased rewards for fiat?

[YuginKadoya]

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

70% where do you get that number?

Of course if they stop or ban mining then the price could be affected negatively. But I think big miners have already a plan B in place in case Chinese government banned bitcoin mining. And I don't think they will be caught with their pants down.

Maybe this time they already have moved somewhere else, so there will be net effect, but I don't think it will be on long term though.

The whole reason so much mining is done in China is the cheap electricity, so I fail to understand people who think this decision won't have any impact on price.
Another issue I'm wondering about is how are Chinese miners selling the crypto they mine since they can't legally sell it in China? have many mining rewards for the past year have been held by Chinese miners? if that's the case, and mining is stopped, could this create more selling pressure from the miners in other countries who are free to sell all the increased rewards for fiat?

Because of the number of Hashrate that the article indicated can be a bluff and China can never have such percentage on the mining pool, There is a second percentage that the Hashrate are all unknown and many of us is not consider that a lot of Hashrates was because of China, We can not take a mere hearsay can be viable and the only conclusion, We should take direct research about it,

But considering the fact that there might be an effect for miners when mining will be really stopped in China's part, I guess it can only be a slight change with the pace If they would want to really stop mining in their country so be it, We don't really need them.

[figmentofmyass]

The whole reason so much mining is done in China is the cheap electricity, so I fail to understand people who think this decision won't have any impact on price.
Another issue I'm wondering about is how are Chinese miners selling the crypto they mine since they can't legally sell it in China? have many mining rewards for the past year have been held by Chinese miners? if that's the case, and mining is stopped, could this create more selling pressure from the miners in other countries who are free to sell all the increased rewards for fiat?

hydro power is cheap during the wet season (4-6 months of the year) in places like sichuan but mines operate year round at much higher average rates. so it's not just cheap electricity that motivates chinese miners---capital flight is real. if you want to move capital offshore, you can expend on mining in RMB and take all your profits offshore.

miners can legally sell crypto in china. there's nothing illegal about p2p trading. at a time when chinese are desperate to move money outside the country, i'm sure some miners are stepping in to meet that demand.....