A trader's diary - my Bitmex journey

[N0sferatu]

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
BTC   BTC   BTC
My Bitmex trading diary


This is the resumption of my previous thread: Take Profit or keep the position open? (Bitmex)

Introduction
Since i entered the cryptocurrency market back in June 2017, i was always looking for new opportunities to grow my BTC balance.
I tried faucets, gambling sites, HYIP's, classical daytrading, social trading, bot trading... basically anything that might generate an outcome.

As you might imagine, most of the mentioned methods weren't reliable.
I got best results with daytrading, though it seemed hard to understand the market and establish a reasonable trading strategy.

Why Bitmex
I've only got a small amount of financial assets.
The possibility to leverage my positions was the key reason to start trading on Bitmex.

About this thread
I couldn't find any regularly updated Bitmex trading journal in the forum, so I believe some users here might have an interest in this.
There will also be a "Q&A" section since some unusual questions pop up from time to time.

I am open to constructive criticism about this thread or its design! Feel free to comment & ask any questions.


Strategy & targets

"You need to have a solid plan and stick to it no matter what!" - is a phrase you can read in every trading discussion thread here.

For me this is only true in theory. The market doesn't stick to a certain plan, neither do I.
I just have set some basic rules:

applying cost-average effect
barely relying on indicators
personal overall BTC sentiment: bullish
risk management by diversification
studying orderbook and in-depth chart regularly
reading candlestick patterns
limit-orders only
no stop-losses*
maximum leverage x15*
no shorts*


*rules are there to be broken!

The only target is to grow my BTC balance as high as possible. I will never stop.

My entry & exit points are always around certain support / resistance levels that i evaluated myself.
All my decisions are based on my own observations.
I am checking prices frequently every hour and am able to enter my Bitmex account any time of the day (except when sleeping).

I am going to share my open positions,orders & account balance on a daily basis.


Starting balance on 26/02/2019: 0.0139 BTC

Today's balances:





Profit since the opening of this thread: 0.1276 BTC

Profit since the start of my journey: approx. 0.2352 BTC

Current ROI > 1650%

BTC   BTC   BTC

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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[N0sferatu]

Q&A section

Q: Take profit or keep the position open? (discussion)
A: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5127120.0

Q: I opened a position last night at x9 leverage. When i woke up, it was at x13. Why?
A: If the market doesn't move in your favor, Bitmex needs to adjust leverage so the position size will stay the same.

Q: Is it possible to have a 2nd account?
A: I have tried this since you can't do two positions in one pair at the time in Bitmex. You can use the referral link from your main account to create your 2nd account to gain a small commission.
(Quote from: GreatArkansas on April 15, 2019, 09:31:56 PM)
Also see: Link Bitmex accounts to avoid transaction fees

Q: Why are you not using indicators or stop-losses?
A: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140545.msg50947191#msg50947191

Q: Which advice would you give a newbie trader?
A: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140545.msg51039900#msg51039900

[N0sferatu]

Daily summary #1

Sentiment:

- overall bullish
- expecting a correction, lowest point around 5400$
- expecting price swinging between 5700$ - 5950$


Open position:



Active orders:





Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

[butka]

OK, it looks exciting, I'm in, I'll try to follow your Bitmex journey. I'm also trading on Bitmex, pretty much due to the same reasons as yours. You say you won't be using any indicators. I myself am using indicators only, but I'll gladly follow your trades and try to find some logic in them.

Now, you say you won't be using stop losses, which considering your maximum leverage (15x) could be very risky if you ask me. You would have to rely on the bullish sentiment not being overrun by the bears for this to work, isn't it?

Anyhow, I wish you a lot of good luck, in addition to your trading skills.

[adaseb]

With Bitmex you need to becareful how and where you set your stop-losses. Basically you should always give room for your stop losses to fill incase there isn't enough liquidity at a certain stop, basically your stop and your limit stop need to be wide.

Also don't put your stops near any important pivots because you will get crazy slippage and your stop will usually fill right at the top and price will usually pull back afterwards.

The issue with Bitmex is that many people go 50x or 100x there and its the reason why we sometimes get these $100 1 minute candles with over 40-50 Million in USD volume, mostly they are just stop hunts.

[N0sferatu]

OK, it looks exciting, I'm in, I'll try to follow your Bitmex journey. I'm also trading on Bitmex, pretty much due to the same reasons as yours. You say you won't be using any indicators. I myself am using indicators only, but I'll gladly follow your trades and try to find some logic in them.

Now, you say you won't be using stop losses, which considering your maximum leverage (15x) could be very risky if you ask me. You would have to rely on the bullish sentiment not being overrun by the bears for this to work, isn't it?

Anyhow, I wish you a lot of good luck, in addition to your trading skills.

Thank you!  

Why am i not using indicators?

I have been trying to trade with indicators like the stochastic RSI, bollinger bands and MACD etc.
Those never worked for me - indicators are lagging and are only displaying a trend that has already happended.

Some are useful to get some good entry or exit points, though.
I am determining those solely backed by the in-depth chart of Bitmex.

Why am i not using stop-losses?

Using stop-losses for me is like gambling with a martingale strategy but not going for the last rolls (that might eat up your balance).
I am confident in the positions i open, so there is no need for a stop-loss.
If a liquidation happens, it's fine for me - that's part of my personal risk management.

I don't always go for a x15 leverage, currently my position is on x9. It basically displays how confident i am in my current decisions.
Very sure = high leverage, unsure = lower leverage.

And yep, i fully rely on a bullish sentiment in the long run.  

With Bitmex you need to becareful how and where you set your stop-losses. Basically you should always give room for your stop losses to fill incase there isn't enough liquidity at a certain stop, basically your stop and your limit stop need to be wide.

Also don't put your stops near any important pivots because you will get crazy slippage and your stop will usually fill right at the top and price will usually pull back afterwards.

The issue with Bitmex is that many people go 50x or 100x there and its the reason why we sometimes get these $100 1 minute candles with over 40-50 Million in USD volume, mostly they are just stop hunts.

Thanks for your input!  

You showed me some more reasons why i don't use stop losses at all.
Instead, i am just increasing my long position at lower prices to stay away from liquidation.

[Vispilio]

I agree with the no stop loss approach as there is a lot of long wicks on Bitmex.

The reward to risk ratio can justify no stop loss trading on a leveraged account, if you adjust your target profits accordingly.

[N0sferatu]

Daily summary #2

Current balance updated in the OP.

Sentiment:

- overall bullish
- expecting a correction, lowest point around 5450$
- expecting price swinging between 5830$ - 6050$


Open position:

-

Filled orders:



Active orders:



Made a nice profit of around 0.007 BTC again.
Even opened a short position from 6130$ before i went to sleep - it didn't get filled overnight so i cancelled it again (highest point was 6095$).

Open orders remain the same, still waiting for a correction of up to 10%.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

[traderethereum]

Did you use an alarm to know if your target price reached?
So far, I see that you already make a nice profit from bitmex.
But you still need to be careful because of the market still unpredictable as I see in a few days ago, we saw a flash dump in a moment, but gladly, the price is back to the higher price again.
Do you have a percentage of the profit that you want to make it every time you trade?

[N0sferatu]

Did you use an alarm to know if your target price reached?
So far, I see that you already make a nice profit from bitmex.
But you still need to be careful because of the market still unpredictable as I see in a few days ago, we saw a flash dump in a moment, but gladly, the price is back to the higher price again.
Do you have a percentage of the profit that you want to make it every time you trade?

No, i don't use any notifications or alarms.
I just frequently check prices manually.

A simple price alarm wouldn't be enough for me at all because it says nothing about the current liquidity.

I don't have a specific target price or profit. All my buying- or selling actions are determined by the current market situation and my personal FOMO.  

[traderethereum]

Did you use an alarm to know if your target price reached?
So far, I see that you already make a nice profit from bitmex.
But you still need to be careful because of the market still unpredictable as I see in a few days ago, we saw a flash dump in a moment, but gladly, the price is back to the higher price again.
Do you have a percentage of the profit that you want to make it every time you trade?

No, i don't use any notifications or alarms.
I just frequently check prices manually.

A simple price alarm wouldn't be enough for me it all because it says nothing about the current liquidity.

I don't have a specific target price or profit. All my buying- or selling actions are determined by the current market situation and my personal FOMO. 

That is nice because not many people use that and sometimes, we miss the time to buy or sell.
I thought that you are a pro trader so you can find the right price to buy and sell.
Still, it's difficult to trade on bitmex especially without having good knowledge in leveraged trading.
Thank you for the diary. I hope that you can get success for your journey and keep posting of your journey so we can learn something from you.

[N0sferatu]

Daily summary #3

Current balance updated in the OP.

Sentiment:

- superbullish
- expecting an uptrend to 6700$
- expecting price swinging between 6200$ - 6480$


Open position:



Filled orders:



Active orders:



Made a nice profit of around 0.003 BTC.

I broke one of my rules and shorted this morning from around 6280$ and closed the position later as i saw the strength of the support.
PNL was around 0. Yes, FOMO kicked in.  

Actually i did expect the support at 6050$ to be weak, but this doesn't seem to be the case.

Downward wicks are pretty long, so i assume the power of the bears still remains pretty low.

You may notice my withdrawal - i funded my 2nd Bitmex account for another "strategy". Going to add that one in the next days!

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

[N0sferatu]

Daily summary #4

Current balance updated in the OP.

Sentiment:

- bullish to sideways
- expeced price reached!

- expecting an uptrend to 6700$

- expecting price swinging between 6600$ - 6980$


Open position:

-

Filled orders:



Active orders:



Made a nice profit of around 0.009 BTC.

Bitcoin is still gowing strong. It broke several resistances in only 48 hours and reached 6985$ at its peak. Wow!
It gets harder and harder to predict where the price is going, so i am very careful with my positions.

I think we either see a rise to 7800$ in the upcoming days or we're going sideways in the 6300$ - 6800$ range.

A greater pullback would require a significant signal before (to my mind!).

Today the ROI of my Bitmex journey reached 1007%.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

[N0sferatu]

Daily summary #5

Current balance updated in the OP.

Sentiment:

- bullish to sideways
- expected price reached
- price swinging between 7100$ to 7600$


Open position:



Filled orders:



Active orders:



Made a profit of around 0.0036 BTC.

I messed up a short position AGAIN - another reminder why i should stick to my own rules.  

I got more confident in the bullish momentum, that's why i built up a greater long position.
I think we're going to retest the 7600$ area anytime soon again.
The resistance is strong there so we might have reached the top for now.



Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

[N0sferatu]

Daily summary #6

Current balance updated in the OP.

Sentiment:

- bullish to sideways
- expected price reached
- price swinging between 7300$ to 7900$


Open position:

-

Filled orders:



Active orders:



Made a huge profit of around 0.042 BTC!

I was able to build up a huge position around the 7000$ in the past 24 hours with my cost-averaging strategy.
It really paid off - the biggest profit within a day i had so far!

I could have sold my position a little later with higher profit, but that won't bother me.  

Win is win.

I am not in the mood to make any prediction about tomorrow, but there are no signs of a reversal.  



Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

[DeathProxy]

I got rekted once on bitmex, and never do margin trading again. Bitmex is not advisable for newbies, they may end up losing a great deal.  I will advice any novice that would want to use bitmex should settle down and learn its basics before Puting in real funds

[N0sferatu]

I got rekted once on bitmex, and never do margin trading again. Bitmex is not advisable for newbies, they may end up losing a great deal.  I will advice any novice that would want to use bitmex should settle down and learn its basics before Puting in real funds

I also got rekt on Bitmex on my very first try. 
There is an old saw: "You need to get broke 2 times before being able to get rich."

Yeah one should always do research before putting in any money.
Not everyone is born a trader - you need to be disciplined at first place.

But, if a newbie would ask me about important things on how to start, i would tell him:

• only trade a small portion of your assets at a time
• never panic - stick to your decisions
• use a very low leverage

Everything else is only experience.

[Gyrsur]

interesting project! jumped in for updates of you.

[N0sferatu]

Daily summary #7

Current balance updated in the OP.

Sentiment:

- uncertain (still bullish? / waiting for a correction)
- price swinging between 7900$ to 8300$



Open position:

-

Filled orders:



Active orders:



Made a profit of around 0.001 BTC.
(it is somehow included in the previous' day PNL)

I feel a bit uncertain about the market, so i didn't trade at full risk as usual.

Had to clear up my buy orders as they were not reasonable any more.
Am still looking for quick profits in the 7900$ - 8300$ area.

A correction becomes more and more plausible.
I expect a dip in the next days, possibly down to 6800$, but who knows.

interesting project! jumped in for updates of you.

Cool, thanks for being with me on this journey! 



Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

[N0sferatu]

Daily summary #8

Current balance updated in the OP.

Sentiment:

- uncertain to bearish
- correction to around 6800$ becomes more plausible
- price swinging between 7000$ to 7900$



Open position:

-

Filled orders:



Active orders:

-

Made a profit of around 0.0034 BTC.

My current sentiment got confirmed by the market today.
Instead of keeping my position, i sold it now since a correction seems more and more plausible due to the current candlesticks.

I also cleared all my buying orders because of this.

We failed to retest the 8300$ resistance, instead we're currently testing the 7900$ support over and over.



As you can see in the chart:

2 Dojis followed by a Dragonfly and another Doji, and currently we can see a new red bar forming.
If this gets confirmed by additional red candles, we might see a "bearish checkmate".

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.