Could someone tell me which part of the calculation I messed up?

[StackGambler]

Something in my stats elective got me thinking about maths and gambling sites, and I decided to try out the expected value formula on bustabit data.

E(X) = ∑X * P(X)

Basically, the expected value for a set of data is the sum of each data point multiplied by the probability of its occurence. For example, if the odds of getting a 0 is 50% and the odds of getting a 1 is also 50%, your expected value would be (0*0.5)+(1*0.5) = 0.5, so it's sort of like a weighted average.

I took a table with all possible bust values on bustabit and their corresponding odds. The formula to calculate the odds of a bust is the absolute value of [(0.99/bust+0.01)-(0.99/bust)]. The odds of getting exactly 1x are 0.0198, exactly 1.1x are 0.00892, and so on. As per the formula for E(X), I multiplied each bust value with its corresponding probability and summed the total, which came out to over 2.3, even though the expected value is supposed to be 1.98. Can anyone tell me which part of this is wrong? Thanks

[davis196]

I don't trust crash sites or dice sites,even though they state the fact that they are "probably-fair".
I'm pretty bad at math anyway,so I can't help,but why do you wanna know this?
Do you think that you can find some calculation that will help you predict all odds and outcomes?

[StackGambler]

The part that is wrong is not with the calculation but the way you think about it. Although you come up with an equation, computing with your best mathematical braincells, a gamble is still a gamble. No formula can define what number would win. If you want a challenging number game then i guess you are more fit with trading. Im sure you earn enough with that skill.

The point of my post completely flew over your head.

[YuginKadoya]

I really think that gambling doesn't need any computation regarding winning and lessening your losses because gambling is base on luck, I guess you can sure need computation over the house edge but that is on the owner in giving the percentage of it, But the bet is all random and you can not predict any outcome unless it is Sportbets and poker, Well I am not used in mathematical computation and maybe there isn't wrong with your computation but I guess apply it to gambling will only result in random outcome, But again I think this can be applied with a bot if you surely want an auto gambling.

[traderethereum]

I think you have a big curiosity in the gambling game so you make a formula that could explain to you and maybe can help you to win from the games.
I never think deeply about gambling game even for making formula on why the strategy of my calculation cannot help me to be the winner because I realize that gambling is not just a calculation, but it's more than that.

[Micerker]

Accurate calculation of the calculation and there are no false inferences about it. But it is 50%, so you always have a chance to win when you roll, the ratio will fall to 1 or 0. It will always fall into 1 and also fall into 0 because the rate is 50%.

[sheenshane]

The part that is wrong is not with the calculation but the way you think about it. Although you come up with an equation, computing with your best mathematical braincells, a gamble is still a gamble. No formula can define what number would win. If you want a challenging number game then i guess you are more fit with trading. Im sure you earn enough with that skill.

@Goaldigger has a point. Gambling is always gambling no algorithms, no equation. Let's put it this way. You are a person who would like to open a gambling site. Now, the developer put an equation, formulas, and algorithms you will know that some people with his same capabilities and skills could bypass it and take advantage of your site. What would you do? Remove the equation, make sure to control the wins and loses. Because you opened a gambling site to have a profit from it. Not to provide a platform to solve with these equations.

If you think you're good with numbers, then gambling might not be the best field you could enter. You may try to consider trading.

[samcrypto]

Something in my stats elective got me thinking about maths and gambling sites, and I decided to try out the expected value formula on bustabit data.

E(X) = ∑X * P(X)

Basically, the expected value for a set of data is the sum of each data point multiplied by the probability of its occurence. For example, if the odds of getting a 0 is 50% and the odds of getting a 1 is also 50%, your expected value would be (0*0.5)+(1*0.5) = 0.5, so it's sort of like a weighted average.

I took a table with all possible bust values on bustabit and their corresponding odds. The formula to calculate the odds of a bust is the absolute value of [(0.99/bust+0.01)-(0.99/bust)]. The odds of getting exactly 1x are 0.0198, exactly 1.1x are 0.00892, and so on. As per the formula for E(X), I multiplied each bust value with its corresponding probability and summed the total, which came out to over 2.3, even though the expected value is supposed to be 1.98. Can anyone tell me which part of this is wrong? Thanks

Looking at the formula is too stressful, I don't gamble for this reason and I don't want to spend my time solving how much probability for me to win. Gamblers don't care about the mathematics side, they care about having fun and getting the money. You are too desperate to win which can't be solve by many formulas. Gambling is game of luck, and gambling can't be solve by numbers.

[creeps]

The part that is wrong is not with the calculation but the way you think about it. Although you come up with an equation, computing with your best mathematical braincells, a gamble is still a gamble. No formula can define what number would win. If you want a challenging number game then i guess you are more fit with trading. Im sure you earn enough with that skill.

@Goaldigger has a point. Gambling is always gambling no algorithms, no equation. Let's put it this way. You are a person who would like to open a gambling site. Now, the developer put an equation, formulas, and algorithms you will know that some people with his same capabilities and skills could bypass it and take advantage of your site. What would you do? Remove the equation, make sure to control the wins and loses. Because you opened a gambling site to have a profit from it. Not to provide a platform to solve with these equations.

If you think you're good with numbers, then gambling might not be the best field you could enter. You may try to consider trading.

Formulas can't make gamblers rich, they still need a luck and you're right the house will not let you realize how to solve the problem, they should be better than you. The OP looks good in numbers and the suggestion to trade is good for him since he can now easily learn how to read the charts. I can't tell what is wrong with your calculation OP, its too hard to compute just try to know how much luck you have today and play more.

[rosezionjohn]

This is probably the first time I've seen someone post a mathematical formula for gambling.

@OP, have you tried this formula in other gambling sites? The regular online casinos.

[Hydrogen]

Something in my stats elective got me thinking about maths and gambling sites, and I decided to try out the expected value formula on bustabit data.

E(X) = ∑X * P(X)

Basically, the expected value for a set of data is the sum of each data point multiplied by the probability of its occurence. For example, if the odds of getting a 0 is 50% and the odds of getting a 1 is also 50%, your expected value would be (0*0.5)+(1*0.5) = 0.5, so it's sort of like a weighted average.

When calculating probability or odds, I think potential boolean values like 0 or 1 which could represent values like "true" or "false" should not be mixed with integer or floating point values? That said I don't comprehend everything in your post 100%. I've never used bustabit and have no clue as to how they calculate odds.

With electronic gambling games, I don't think true probability can be calculated without details as to how random number generation (RNG) is implemented. At its most basic level of implementation RNGs will take the current second and run it through an algorithm to generate a "random" number. There are many variants to this in terms of some RNGs utilizing "randomized data" such as weather patterns in an effort to generate numbers that are more randomized and less predictable than algorithms based on the current second. Of course these algorithms have their unique quirks and wouldn't necessarily split 50/50 probability on a boolean true versus false output.

It could be fair to say generating random numbers with computers has an entire branch of study devoted towards it. And there are many hardware and software quirks lurking beneath the mathematical formulas which can make things difficult to quantify or predict.

[Haunebu]

Over the years, I found that the best way to gamble is randomizing everything rather than depending on a single pattern or formula in any game basically. I did try out different strategies(Martingale etc) which always let me down in the long-term.

Advice: Forget formulae op. Stick to randomizing in any game.

[swogerino]

The fact that people think that math people or people who do statistics as their daily job can win more in gambling than other people is only a myth.

No matter what complex algorithm you build in order to win in gambling you cannot win in it in the long run because gambling is a game of luck.All persons who sell these things as complex software for predictions of an outcome simply scam people.

[Gozie51]

I do believe also that gamble is a calculation sometimes it might not be a pure mathematics and combination of algorithm and algebraic connotations but logic and psychology

[goaldigger]

The part that is wrong is not with the calculation but the way you think about it. Although you come up with an equation, computing with your best mathematical braincells, a gamble is still a gamble. No formula can define what number would win. If you want a challenging number game then i guess you are more fit with trading. Im sure you earn enough with that skill.

@Goaldigger has a point. Gambling is always gambling no algorithms, no equation. Let's put it this way. You are a person who would like to open a gambling site. Now, the developer put an equation, formulas, and algorithms you will know that some people with his same capabilities and skills could bypass it and take advantage of your site. What would you do? Remove the equation, make sure to control the wins and loses. Because you opened a gambling site to have a profit from it. Not to provide a platform to solve with these equations.

If you think you're good with numbers, then gambling might not be the best field you could enter. You may try to consider trading.

Formulas can't make gamblers rich, they still need a luck and you're right the house will not let you realize how to solve the problem, they should be better than you. The OP looks good in numbers and the suggestion to trade is good for him since he can now easily learn how to read the charts. I can't tell what is wrong with your calculation OP, its too hard to compute just try to know how much luck you have today and play more.

I dont know why he deleted the original comment but i guess the OP is not open for any suggestions. I didnt even read the formula because its so confusing and im not really good at math though but i think he has some good conclusions for the next bull run or the next coin to rise.

[rizkyhiw]

The fact that people think that math people or people who do statistics as their daily job can win more in gambling than other people is only a myth.

No matter what complex algorithm you build in order to win in gambling you cannot win in it in the long run because gambling is a game of luck.All persons who sell these things as complex software for predictions of an outcome simply scam people.

I also don't understand much in math because it's very complicated for me and will confuse myself, and I don't play seriously because I play casually and take advantage of luck or find the right momentum too, I don't think it will be easy to win and it can also be as luck if you get a victory, it's okay for those who like such a strategy, if indeed they are able to do it.

[MakeMoneyBtc]

I think you should go and ask themselves because it seems like no one from here is too good at math or they simply don't want to waste their time writing different formulas for gambling. At the end of the day what's the difference between 1.98 and 2.3 when we are talking about gambling, especially a crash game? Go there ,enjoy the game and if wins are supposed to come that's a bonus for you. Otherwise don't spend your time trying to beat the gambling house with math formulas because it's impossible.

[Ailmand]

Gambling would not be fun if you will base your bet on mathematical equations. I prefer going with my luck when gambling, this makes it exciting and fun. If gambling can be defeated by equation mathematicians would have been rich by now and casinos won't be making that much money. Gambling is a game of chance.

[swogerino]

I think it is dangerous to rely on math on casinos games, math and statistic are better to use on sports gambling, also did you add the house edge to your calculations?

Even if you add math and statistics to your sport betting it will not help you at all.They might if the referees would be neutral and fair in their judgment but this is impossible because every human being make errors.This way the referees impact the game because of some errors in their judgment making math and statistics useless.

[adam7119]

Seems like it's just a case of miscalculation. Your formula for the expected value is correct. You can use https://mathspar.com/mean-calculator/ to check your work. As you said, it is like calculating weighted mean, just that the sum of weights happens to be 1.