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Author Topic: Bitcoin down Litecoin UP 2014  (Read 10137 times)
podyx
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March 14, 2014, 11:56:52 AM
 #21

"The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." -Satoshi 

with Asics coming out for Litecoin , I think LTC will be over $100 in 2014.

why would anyone spend more money to generate the same amount one is already getting??

power consumption

well if the power consumption gets lower, then the production cost also gets lower, no?
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pietje
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March 14, 2014, 12:00:14 PM
 #22

I have heard that some whales are moving from bitcoin to litecoin because they are afraid that the stolen coins from Mt.Gox will be sold.

If they get sold ltc will take a very big hit too.
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March 14, 2014, 12:06:20 PM
 #23

"The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." -Satoshi 

with Asics coming out for Litecoin , I think LTC will be over $100 in 2014.

why would anyone spend more money to generate the same amount one is already getting??

power consumption

well if the power consumption gets lower, then the production cost also gets lower, no?

 power consumption gets lower , chips get faster , asics price goes higher , Ltc goes higher

just how bitcoin soared when ASICs came out.

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March 14, 2014, 01:22:47 PM
 #24

im fairly bullish on Litecoin on the short-mid-term

bitcoinlitcoinbtcltc
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March 14, 2014, 01:35:26 PM
 #25

Litecoin doesn't have any real added value, it is even a bigger pump and dump coin than bitcoin. It went to almost 50 within a few hours and is now around 15-16, it rose to almost 22 1.5 weeks ago and is dropping again despite ''the good news'.
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March 14, 2014, 01:41:03 PM
 #26

Litecoin is the higher risk, higher reward coin.. but right now it's better then bitcoin because bitcoin has filled it's full potential already and now it's slowly retreating, while there is still potential to be filled with litecoin.
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March 14, 2014, 01:44:49 PM
 #27

Litecoin is the higher risk, higher reward coin.. but right now it's better then bitcoin because bitcoin has filled it's full potential already and now it's slowly retreating, while there is still potential to be filled with litecoin.

ppl tend to forget that Litecoin actually provided better returns than Bitcoin in 2013

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/01/13/a-100-worth-of-litecoin-a-year-ago-is-worth-30000-today/

Peter R
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March 14, 2014, 02:16:57 PM
 #28

I disagree with the OP's projection of 0.038 BTC/LTC, especially over the medium and long terms.

I often hear it argued that "litecoin is the silver to bitcoin's gold."  The fair price assuming this analogy holds is:

   0.023 BTC / LTC     [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=508064.0]

But litecoin is not, at least yet, the silver to bitcoin's gold.  And because it may never fulfil this imagined destiny, I would argue that it is overpriced now at 0.026.  The primary reason human society evolved to use a bi-metalic monetary system (gold and silver) was the silver solved gold's divisibility problem.  An ounce of gold represented a month's worth of work for many people; it wasn't feasible to scrape off a shred to purchase a loaf of bread.  

With bitcoin there is no divisibility problem.  Alt coins will play a smaller role than the one played by silver with respect to gold.    

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March 14, 2014, 03:14:33 PM
 #29

I have heard that some whales are moving from bitcoin to litecoin because they are afraid that the stolen coins from Mt.Gox will be sold.

Seriously great point who wouldn't be skeptical. Is there a chance they've already been sold. We still have no idea when the coins were stolen recently, yrs ago, or over time.

I never thought my life could be. Anything but catastrophe. But suddenly I begin to see. A "BIT" of good luck for me. Cause I've got a golden ticket!
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March 14, 2014, 03:18:10 PM
 #30

I have heard that some whales are moving from bitcoin to litecoin because they are afraid that the stolen coins from Mt.Gox will be sold.

Seriously great point who wouldn't be skeptical. Is there a chance they've already been sold. We still have no idea when the coins were stolen recently, yrs ago, or over time.
We have same news for bitcoins which freezed by FBI in silkroad case but its never happen just because of this I sure its just rumor not fact

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March 14, 2014, 03:51:40 PM
 #31

I disagree with the OP's projection of 0.038 BTC/LTC, especially over the medium and long terms.

I often hear it argued that "litecoin is the silver to bitcoin's gold."  The fair price assuming this analogy holds is:

   0.023 BTC / LTC     [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=508064.0]

But litecoin is not, at least yet, the silver to bitcoin's gold.  And because it may never fulfil this imagined destiny, I would argue that it is overpriced now at 0.026.  The primary reason human society evolved to use a bi-metalic monetary system (gold and silver) was the silver solved gold's divisibility problem.  An ounce of gold represented a month's worth of work for many people; it wasn't feasible to scrape off a shred to purchase a loaf of bread.  

With bitcoin there is no divisibility problem.  Alt coins will play a smaller role than the one played by silver with respect to gold.    

Bitcoin has a slow confirmation time problem which litecoin fixes , everyone knows Litecoin is the silver to bitcoin gold and made up formulas won't change that.

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March 14, 2014, 04:33:45 PM
 #32

power consumption gets lower , chips get faster , asics price goes higher , Ltc goes higher

just how bitcoin soared when ASICs came out.
You're trying to say that price follows the difficulty level.

This is not true.
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March 14, 2014, 05:01:53 PM
 #33

i am 30% in litecoin for a while. but just because it was a really good moment. looking forward to trade them back into btc soon. my target is 0.028~0.030.
for the long term i feel more confident with bitcoin. imo the problem with the current altcoins is that if bitcoin fails they will fail too. they are too similar, they add mostly cosmetic modifications.

but i appreciate altcoins and specially the litecoin community, they help cryptos to succeed.
 

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March 14, 2014, 05:06:59 PM
 #34

power consumption gets lower , chips get faster , asics price goes higher , Ltc goes higher

just how bitcoin soared when ASICs came out.
You're trying to say that price follows the difficulty level.

This is not true.

no , again "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." -Satoshi 



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March 14, 2014, 05:28:11 PM
 #35

no , again "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." -Satoshi
It would seem then that Litcoin's price will be going down if this is so universal, as ASICs tend to provide a lower production price per k/hash (including electricity).

I think the relative youth of cryptocurrency means that price discovery is throwing that theory out the door in the short-medium term. Longer term, it will almost certainly ring true.
MANofthePEOPLE
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March 14, 2014, 07:35:28 PM
 #36

Guy in btc-e trollbox said ltc/btc might go to 0.25. BUY BUY BUY!!!

I believe the right word is btc-e 'infobox', not 'trollbox'.
juve4v
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March 14, 2014, 08:15:00 PM
 #37

I  belive as well this year we will witness LTC increasing more . Just remember what happened last time when BTC asics came up and compare to what is happening right now  Wink
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March 14, 2014, 08:21:57 PM
 #38

Nope, meant exactly that.

So a 150-fold increase in LTC valuation against BTC is just around the corner? Groovy.

Seriously, though - can someone explain why the "standard" seems to be to refer to trading pairs as X/Y, and report the price as Y/X?



Alt/BTC is "standard" for prices almost everywhere.
Have you seen many people referring to BTC/ALT?
Maybe it's a noob thing or someone is confused...? 
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March 14, 2014, 08:30:09 PM
 #39

I though there was still a high correlation between LTC and BTC but guess I'll leave this question open to answers
Peter R
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March 14, 2014, 08:40:11 PM
Last edit: March 14, 2014, 08:56:02 PM by Peter R
 #40

...everyone knows Litecoin is the silver to bitcoin gold and made up formulas won't change that.

It was assumed that "litecoin was the silver to bitcoin's gold" in the analysis I linked.  The equivalent litecoin price according to this analogy should be near 0.023 BTC/LTC.  Unless there was an error in the calculations, this is simply a statement of fact.  Once again, I'm not implying that this analogy holds, just that I thought the result was interesting.  


Bitcoin has a slow confirmation time problem which litecoin fixes

With any proof-of-work (PoW) based coin, there exists some probability that a transaction gets reversed (double-spent) for a given amount of effort (cost).  This probability of success decreases and the cost to make such an attempt increases as time passes since the transaction was broadcast.  Visualize the two curves like this:





I argue that for a given effort (cost) the probability of success for double spending will be less for the dominant PoW crypto over the entire curve, largely independent of the block confirmation times.  I can't prove this yet, but if it turns out that I am right, then the perceived benefits of a coin like litecoin are greatly diminished.  


NOTE: I haven't worked out the the shape I expect such curves to take, but the idea is that the probability of success decreases with time at fixed effort (cost), and the cost to achieve success with a given probability increases with time.

With a highly-connected listening node, one could perform statistical research to determine the probability that the "average" transaction gets reversed versus time.  You wouldn't know how much effort people spent trying to reverse such transactions, but it would provide useful network statistics.  

 

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