Bitcoin Forum
August 03, 2021, 01:41:58 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.21.1 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 [11]  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Long term advance notice!  (Read 3494 times)
THX 1138
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 206
Merit: 103



View Profile
November 15, 2019, 07:16:28 PM
Last edit: November 19, 2019, 10:06:13 AM by THX 1138
 #201

Relaying a follow-up message:

Quote from: Shelby
According to new IRS rulemaking, coins are received when they are manifest on the blockchain. Don’t move your coins to the new blockchain, ergo you have not received them, ergo no tax due.

Unless of course you want to claim them. That’s a problem of your own making.

I’m amazed that you don’t comprehend how a hard fork airdrop works.

When the Core chain forks off by refusing to accept the legacy blocks which donate SegWit UTXO to the miners[1], then those who hodl in legacy or Core addresses will have received a free air-drop of Core shitcoins at the moment of the timestamp of offending legacy blocks. The hodler of legacy or Core address BTC has no choice and automatically then hodls a private/public key pair which is separately in the UTXO of both the legacy and Core forks. And thus according to the IRS, those who automatically received this diabolical “free” airdrop owe income tax at the market value on the free Core tokens airdrop at the time of the said timestamp. The market value will be whatever nosebleed BTC price before Craig starts his posited (and warned) SegWit donations “attack” (not actually an attack but as I explained in detail in this thread and (links to) other threads linked from this thread, rather it’s a “poison pill” self-defense economic, Schelling point, Nash equilibrium game theory of proof-of-work that prevents a proliferation of competing mutated hard/soft forks, which would otherwise dilute value via supply inflation and contentious politics/opinion).

Thus the huge problem for those who hodl in legacy or Core addresses is that we will receive the free airdrop of Core shitcoins whether we like it or not. And we will receive them as recorded by the timestamp on the blockchain (which the new IRS “common (non)sense” guidance designates for timing) when the market value of these soon-to-be-worthless Core tokens are still at whatever nosebleed BTC price the miners decide to run the price up to before the SegWit attack begins (posited and warned to begin at the May 14, 2020 halving). But as legacy address hodlers we will not be able to split our legacy and Core tokens until Craig has published his initially private legacy chain with the offending blocks, and thus by the time we can actually sell our Core shitcoins separately from our legacy BTC, the price of Core shitcoins will be essentially ~$0, because Craig will have dumped all this Core tokens on the exchanges (after splitting them from his legacy BTC on his initially private legacy chain) and the miners will begin jumping en masse from the Core chain to the recently published legacy chain thus driving the hashrate on the Core chain down severely meaning each new Core chain block will not be found for up to perhaps a week. So we will not be able to sell our Core shitcoins because they will be essentially worthless at that juncture, but yet the IRS will expect us to pay income tax on the full value of the Core shitcoins at the time of the fork as recorded by the timestamp on the blockchain when the price will still skyhigh before the attack began.

And the Core address hodlers are even more fucked than legacy address hodlers because their BTC on the legacy chain is “anyone can spend” (because P2SH is unrecognized by the legacy protocol) and will taken by legacy miners as donations to fund the readoption of the legacy protocol and forcing the Core shitcoin to fork-off. So Core address hodlers will owe the nosebleed high income tax, but will only hodl worth-less Core tokens and no valuable legacy BTC tokens. So how will they pay their huge tax bill? They are fucked.

On top of this, the posited attack will likely bankrupt most of the exchanges. And because of the attack, all exchange activity even on OTC markets might be locked up. So we will owe taxes but can’t even sell any of our legacy BTC to pay the taxes. And P2P transactions will virtually impossible for most of us because:

[…]

Also keep in the mind that of the ~10 million BTC for which the private keys have not been lost, about ~7 million of them (last time I checked) are stored in SegWit addresses which will be donated to the legacy miners in 2020 if the SegWit attack occurs (which I think will be the event that drives the price of the legacy Bitcoin skyhigh). Thus the block reward can be perhaps orders-of-magnitude higher than normally, which as I say may facilitate mining with GPUs again until all of the SegWit donations have been taken (only so many can fit in each block).

Which btw, means that while the SegWit attack is ongoing, the transaction fee attached to your legacy Bitcoin transaction must be greater than the value of the SegWit donations that can be taken instead of including your transaction in a block. Which is why mostly none of us will be able to sell Bitcoin at the $1+ million price in 2020. By the time we are able to get our transaction included in the blockchain (2022?), the likelihood is much greater for us being walled off from doing so by the governments’ automatic nosebleed high income tax on obligatory airdropped Core tokens, capital controls, blockchain blacklists to be enforced by miners, proof-of-source-of-funds, KYC, AML, etc...

[…]

You see the diabolical powers-that-be will run the BTC up to some very high price before the halving and SegWit attack fork-off, perhaps $30 – 100k. This is going to shock many people who will be unprepared because they ignored these warnings. If they hodl Core addresses and do not sell, they lose all the value. If they hodl legacy addresses, they will end up in a tax and liquidity nightmare if they do not sell at this high price before the halving. But most people will not sell because they will think the price is going much higher after the halving. This diabolical plan is so clever.

[1] Again Core is forking off, not vice versa, because legacy address hodlers automatically receive a free airdrop of Core tokens at the posited event, but Core address hodlers only retain their Core tokens and lose their legacy BTC which will be donated to the miners.

Meanwhile in other news:[/size]

The sheet, prefaced by a warning that it’s only a draft and not an actual document for filing taxes, asks at the top:

Quote
“At any time during 2019, did you receive, sell, send, exchange, or otherwise acquire any financial interest in any virtual currency?”

The main parts of the form, “Additional Income” and “Adjustments to Income,” both appear below this question.

“Taxpayers who file Schedule 1 to report income or adjustments to income that can’t be entered directly on Form 1040 should check the appropriate box to answer the virtual currency question. Taxpayers do not need to file Schedule 1 if their answer to this question is NO and they do not have to file Schedule 1 for any other purpose,” the IRS said

And in other news Craig Wright explains/claims that Bitcoin’s miners will end up seizing BTC on behalf of coordinated government requests.



Quote from: Shelby
Approximately every 4 years the reward that miners receive for finding a block, halves. This event is referred to as the “Bitcoin halving” and was hardcoded by Satoshi Nakamoto into the Bitcoin protocol to enforce its deflationary monetary policy.

[…]

What will the Bitcoin price be at the halving?

[…]

This video provides the exact price range to expect at the halving and looks at the possible height of the bull market following.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU

You mentioned in your video that some people think the BTC price will reach a new ATH before the coming May 14, 2020 halving. I’m one of the proponents of the theory that the BTC price will reach a new ATH before the May 14, 2020 halving event.

A fundamental causation for my posited re-acceleration hypothesis is because I have analyzed the possibility that the legacy Bitcoin protocol is being “readopted (analogous to the moonshot in the BTC price when legacy was first adopted in before 2013 and misdirection of adoption onto the impostor Core “soft fork” protocol) as warned by the powers-that-be. And I find evidence of this posited BTC price re-acceleration in the charts and also in the recent actions of some whales (c.f. also the Trilema.com/Dao attacker and what Bakkt did). All of the cryptocosm value will be refocused into the legacy Bitcoin with the coming “poison pill” game theory defense mechanism of the one proof-of-work chain to rule them all.

Below I will discuss some of the evidence of re-acceleration I find in the charts. Click the images to go to their source.

Readers may also be interested in my blog: McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price

Let’s start with your chart comparing the 4 year period prior to each of the 2 prior halving events and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event (3 cases total). Note the prior ATH of the current (i.e. top-most on your chart) case was nearer to the start of the four year period analogous to the prior (i.e. middle on your chart) case. Whereas, the final “over the cliff” drop to the bottom and the sudden and steep (i.e. more accelerated both in time and price) out that of that bottom for the current case is more similar to the first (i.e. bottom-most on your chart) case. Also notice for first (i.e. bottom-most) case that the rise in the price before the halving was not as great as for the prior (i.e. middle) case, but the rise after the halving was much more accelerated (both in time and price) for the first (i.e. bottom-most) case as compared to the prior (i.e. middle) case. Thus the BTC price rise after the halving for the current case should be more accelerated than the prior case:




Next let’s refer to your chart comparing the level of the price at each subsequent halving event and the length of the “reaccumulation” (sic) phase before each halving event. Note that the prior (i.e. middle on this chart) case had both a higher price at and longer “reaccumulation” before its succeeding halving event than the first (i.e. left-most on this chart) case. Given an even longer “reaccumulation” before its succeeding halving event for current (i.e. right-most on this chart) case compared to the prior case, the BTC price should be even higher before and right at the coming May 14, 2020 halving as compared to the prior case:



Let’s refer to the stock-to-flows (aka S/F) model below to see that the BTC price at the halving event in the prior case was 1.6 times higher than the S/F model price:



How much higher than the prior case should the price be at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event? Note in the charts below that the BTC price in your “accumulation” and “expansion” phases for the prior case were either below (at the same timing before the halving given by similar shade of green color) or at best only up to the S/F model price:







Whereas, the current case has already achieved 1.6 times higher than the S/F model price in this “accumulation” and “expansion” phase:



Thus we should expect the BTC price at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event to be accelerated 1.6 × 1.6 = 2.6 times the ~$8800 S/F model price at the coming halving event. Additionally the current case has even more “reaccumulation” time than the prior case to build an even higher BTC price at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event. Thus the price at the coming halving event could be 3 ­– 4 times $8800 or roughly $26 – $35k. Additionally, I’m positing double of (i.e. two times) those prices projections at the halving due to third-order derivative (i.e. the rate of increase in the acceleration) mathematical effects which I don’t want to attempt to explain now.

Another reason the BTC price can front run the S/F model price rise at the halving is because PlanB recently unveiled the model.

Note I think the anonymous PlanB might be an agent (or an unwitting tool) of the bastard global elite who created Bitcoin are organizing the SegWit attack. PlanB (or someone at Twitter and Medium) banned and censored me from commenting on his Twitter and Medium blogs because I was getting too close to revealing these truths. I posit he has released this model to cause the market to front run the model and thus help achieve their goal of a nosebleed, moonshot BTC before the halving so that the hashrate difficulty will be so high when they initiate the SegWit donations attack that the Core protocol fork-off chain will become so slow that perhaps only a new block found every week or month. To drive the Core protocol fork-off to ~$0 price and complete their objective of surreptitiously concentrating most of the BTC in their own hands.

Also your projection for the ATH price after the coming halving is much, much too low. As I explained above, there is a reacceleration tweening between the prior and first cases. In those cases, the ATH price reached 3 and 10 times the S/F model price. Given the S/F model price will be $104k in 2021, the peak ATH should be at least $300k – $1 million. And there is a front running acceleration, so that peak ATH price could be attained as early as the end of 2020 so that McAfee doesn’t have to eat his dick. C.f. also my blog: McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price

The current state of the RSI is indicating a sudden rise in the price is imminent analogous to 2013 (not 2017) for the reasons I explained above:



I thus expect the rise in the BTC price to mimic the entire year of 2013 from this point forward. A moonshot rise pre-halving, then a dip with the SegWit attack killing Core and focusing the cryptocosm on legacy Bitcoin, then legacy Bitcoin rising above $300k before the end of 2020.



I really thought that once the price had moved into late 4 figures and 5 figures the percentages of the moves would be radically lower. People would be excited by a couple of hundred bucks. Yet it can still lose or gain 30-40% in a single day just as it could when it was 2 figures.

I don't know what that means, it doesn't seem healthy to me, but the possibility for truly barking moves is still more than alive and kicking.

If we think in terms of market cap and just how thin these markets are then it still doesn't really require huge sums to make giant moves. I expected it to be past that by now but it hasn't changed. It looks like it needs another monstrous move up before it does start to behave in a less shitcoiny manner and even then it might need another one.

Plausible reasons:




For the price objectives and timing over the next months until the Bitcoin halving event, I recently wrote in private email several days ago before the drop below $8600 and before LTC had dropped below $60:

Quote from: myself in email
Quote from: myself in email
IMPORTANT. MAKE SURE YOU READ THIS.

Strangely the fractal pattern at the current juncture for LTC/USD could be correlated to either early to mid Feb 2019 or Jan 10 2019. It appears LTC may be accelerating in time (but not in proportional price) compared to the prior fractal pattern earlier this year. So perhaps LTC will not decline below $60 again in 2019.

Whereas, BTC appears to not be accelerating in time but is accelerating in proportional price.

By proportional price, I mean compare the price rises from the prior $22 and $3102 bottoms as the difference in price from the bottom divided by the price drop from the cliff edge at $56 and $6550.

The calculation shows that LTC is 93% and BTC is 260% (2.6X) of the proportional price rises thus far compared to the prior fractal.

Thus I compute projected prices for LTC of $82, $116, and $158. And for BTC  three consecutive monthly highs of $13k, $21k, and $32k.

But those prices do not have to occur at the same time, especially not the $82.

It seems the only way to fulfill the 0.01 LTC/BTC target is for LTC/USD to hit $82 while BTC/USD drops to $8200. Then the $116 can occur with a rocket shot in BTC to $13k. I was expecting that rocket shot at start of February, but everything may be accelerating in time.

Recently @infofront cited a Twitter post that said the LTC miners are preparing to disconnect their machines and pumping the LTC price so they can get out and liquidate their mining equipment (and LTC) at the best prices. Apparently they expect BTC dominance to return soon and they want to cash out.

BTC/USD may decline to $8200 before end of November with LTC rising to $82 as the very short altcoin season bleeds BTC for a month only. Then BTC slowly rising to $9600 before end of 2019. Then a rocket shot to $13k on Armstrong’s ECM turn date in the start of January. With LTC rising to $116. Then $158 and $21k in February. In March BTC hits $32k and LTC and all altcoins are declining. In April BTC goes supernova to $50+k. My target for a spike high was $78k.

Let’s revisit what may end up being a very, very important blog, perhaps even more important than Plan B’s stock-to-flows model:

https://medium.com/@positivecrypto/the-golden-ratio-multiplier-c2567401e12a

Focus on this chart:



Interestingly at the recent $13.8k high, the ratio to the 350 DMA was 2.4. That places it between the red and purple lines. Which thus corresponds to a tweening between the peaks in Q3 2012 and Q3 2013. Whereas the corresponding peak in 2015 commensurately before the halving was only up to the green line, so current fractal pattern is not corresponding to the 5 multiplier. And if we do get a rocket shot into the May (actually late April) 2020 halving, then the chart is going to look very fractally similar to the 2013 rocket shot.

So this means (as I had posited previously) that the multiplier for the coming peak in late April 2020 should be between 8 and 13. The 350 DMA is currently $7k and will rise to greater than $10k. Even if the multiplier does decline to 3 as that blog posits, that is still going to be in excess of $30k for the peak. So perhaps my $32k will be the peak and perhaps the rocket shot to $13k will not begin until February 2020.

However, I assert that the legacy Bitcoin is being readopted, which will cause a stampede effect and thus a reversion to the 8 or perhaps 10 multiplier. Again 8 would place it near to my $78k expectation.

Also the above linked Medium blog gives a very useful metric for timing the ATH, when the 111 DMA crossed over 2 multiplied by the 350 DMA. We should remember to watch for that. So estimating now roughly when the 3.5 month average price is higher than somewhere above $20+k. So if we take my 3 consecutive month price estimates $13k, $21k, and $32k and presuming some acceleration along the way to average is weighted more towards the lower prices. Also those are peak prices, with dips in between. And the 350 DMA is likely to be higher than $10k. So a quick moon shot to $50+k in April after a dip from $32k in March, is within the realm of mathematical possibility.

$32k is the minimum for the ATH before May 2020, presuming my thesis is correct that the price will be pumped in advance of a posited SegWit attack at the halving.

Interestingly the 350 DMA should be ~8+k by early January, so a 1.6 multiplier would be $13k. By February should be $8.5+k thus 2 to 2.4 multiplier provides my $21k target (remember the tweening). By March $9 – $10k, so the 3 – 4 multiplier will provide my $32k target.

My current scenario after studying carefully the fractal pattern correlation. The current U-shaped correction appears to be roughly 71% of the duration of the prior one earlier this year.

BTC should bottom on this current retracement below $8500 by Nov. 24. The ideal target is $8200. LTC will retrace to somewhere between $57 and $60.

On ~Nov 24, a spike up for LTC and BTC to ~$70 and ~$8700. Then a decline over next several days to $60 – $64 and $8 – $8.4k. Then another spike up on ~Dec. 5 to ~$75 and $9.7k. Then a decline over next couple of days to ~$65 and ~$8.5k. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up for LTC coupled with a slow rise for BTC to ~$80 and $8.7k. Then slow rise by ~Dec. 22 to ~$83 and $8.9k.

Thus I see LTC/BTC reaching only a maximum of 0.0093, although perhaps 0.0098 is possible on some intraday spike divergence for LTC and BTC. I would probably sell LTC at $80 and thus 0.0092 is likely the best I could achieve. Given an entry at 0.0069, that would be a 33% gain in BTC, if repurchasing BTC immediately after selling LTC. Those who entered at 0.006 might get a 50% gain in BTC if they time it perfectly.

Another strategy might be to sell maybe half at $75 and then if LTC drops to $65 repurchase for a 15% gain, else (if LTC does not drop) purchase BTC for ~$8.5k (because it seems BTC must drop otherwise it can’t rise to $8.7k), so that is still a 27% gain in BTC is purchased LTC when LTC/BTC was 0.0069.

Frankly only a 33% potential gain (relative to BTC) is not all that incredibly enticing given the risk of the volatility of LTC. Timing may be end up elusive.

GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS

I did the same calculations for GRS and it’s about 3X leveraged in price compared to the prior fractal earlier this year. On ~Nov 24, GRS should rise to ~0.27 which if BTC is $8700, then GRS/BTC will be 0.000031. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up ~$0.48, and thus GRS/BTC 0.000055. So I think GRS/BTC has better leverage and can double your BTC, but you must have your sell limit orders waiting because the spikes can be completed in a couple of hours sometimes. A strategy would be to sell maybe half at $0.27 and attempt to reload at $0.23 or purchase BTC at $8700.

In this scenario, the rocket shot is timed perfectly with Armstrong’s monumental ECM turn date, so ~Jan 1, 2020, a rocket shot to ~$116 and ~$12.5k. That will be the last chance to trade LTC for BTC. BTC may have an intraday (or next day) spike low of $11k. So if you sold at say $110 and repurchased $11.5k, that would be 0.096, thus increasing potential BTC gains to 40% (if purchased when LTC/BTC is 0.0069) or 65% if entered when LTC/BTC was 0.006. But that’s going to be some chaotic timing. Hope the exchanges don’t get slammed.

In this scenario, during the rest of January LTC will decline to ~$86 and BTC will oscillate but reach a peak of $13k. I wonder if we will get another flash crash in late January to $10k this time, mimicking the flash crash in April 2019.

In this timing scenario, before Feb 12 (2020), BTC will spike up again to $21k. Within a week a decline to perhaps ~$17.3k. Then another rocket shot to ~$32k by ~March 2.

The market would be somewhat confused at this point because the ATH would have been significantly exceeded well before the halving. Thus I would expect some sort of deeper and slightly longer correction. Maybe back to $21k again to throw many off the train who are looking to repurchase below the 2017 $20k ATH before the halving currently targeted for May 14:

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

That and including the uncertainty about whether the price will indeed go higher than ~$32k before any SegWit attack is why I will probably take all the cash I am going to need at $32k, then perhaps repurchase half of what I sold if the price drops to say $21k before the halving. Also I will be keeping my eye on the 111 DMA vs. twice the 350 DMA as mentioned in my prior email. Such an extended decline might be necessary to keep that 111 DMA from prematurely crossing down under twice the 350 DMA.

So then in April suddenly a moonshot to $50+k. Again my target is $78k but I will reaccess at that time after looking at all factors including where is the 350 DMA at that juncture.



Quote from: Shelby
It's just too exaggerated to give a random numbers while the market price today is under $9,000.

McAfee’s Dick Math may be based on point-set topology. Also re-read the lengthy post I made in this thread.

The legacy BTC price is likely going to $1 million in 2020, but I posit the official Bitcoin Core (which is actually an impostor) is going towards ~$0 after the SegWit “anyone can spend” donations to the miners attack at the May 2020 halving event if Craig Wright fulfills his Long-term advance notice. Craig is indeed a fake Satoshi and his BSV is probably a red-herring, but his warning is probably reality. Read the linked threads entirely to learn why.


55k is definitely not too high if you look at the history of Bitcoin. Even 100k is not too high.
In 2017 we went from 900 to 20k in a year. When we broke previous ATH we went times 20! Breaking 20k would take us to 200k if it happens again. I know we can't compare because it takes a lot more money to reach those levels but when we were below 1 k people were talking about the 2013 bull market and saying the same thing that we went from 300 to 1000 in a month but a 3x rise from ATH won't happen because it's a lot of money. Do you even remember today what people were saying when we were going through 3k? No? I don't remember it too because it was so fast.

Everyone forgets, incorrectly thinks Bitcoin’s price is decelerating, and gets lulled to sleep. Here is a mathematical model of what you are referring to:

McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price


i believe that the more we move forward as the market size grows, the less drastic the big swings are going to be. meaning both rises and falls are going to happen in a more reasonable percentages. it is about more adoption and more packed order books that makes it so that when a big buy or a sell take place the price wouldn't jump up or down 30%!
so with that logic this upcoming rally price should go up to about $300k since last time price went up from $150 (the bottom) to $19900 which is 13166%. with the current bottom being $3200 that means reaching $424,512 which if it becomes smaller we should reach $300k instead

Everyone seems to think Bitcoin is decelerating, but it’s actually accelerating. My theory as to why is because of the upcoming readoption of legacy Bitcoin and the destruction of the Bitcoin Core imposter soft-fork, thus focusing wealth as most people are kicked off of Bitcoin and their BTC is donated to the miners. Whales never sell, thus the liquid float will decrease. Everyone seems to think Bitcoin needs to scale transaction volume, but I posit that was never the intended purpose of Bitcoin when the global elite created it.

My (and apparently McAfee’s) theory is you are being deceived by mismatching your comparisons of peaks from different topological sets. See the above link to McAfee’s Dick Math.

Your $300k is also my lowest level target for 2020. But $1+ million may be more likely if you believe the (unpublished) math McAfee claims.


in 2012 and 2016 halving, people still put a lot of doubts in bitcoin saying bitcoin will have zero value, majority did not believe that bitcoin will be worthy in the future and then the price skyrocketed, proven they all wrong.
nowadays majority so over confident about the upcoming bitcoin halving making speculation it will worth 5 to 20times from the current price , guess what should happen? the price fall down , prove the majority wrong?

Instead I posit that everyone will be destroyed by the SegWit attack at the halving and then the price will go much, much higher than anyone expects. But this attack is going to hoist huge income taxes on everyone due to the free airdrop of the Core tokens when it is forced to hard fork-off.

The majority is always wrong, but never in exactly the same way. New tricks are the up the sleeves of our slave masters who created the 666 Bitcoin.

1627954918
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1627954918

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1627954918
Reply with quote  #2

1627954918
Report to moderator
1627954918
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1627954918

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1627954918
Reply with quote  #2

1627954918
Report to moderator
1627954918
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1627954918

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1627954918
Reply with quote  #2

1627954918
Report to moderator
Bitcoin addresses contain a checksum, so it is very unlikely that mistyping an address will cause you to lose money.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1627954918
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1627954918

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1627954918
Reply with quote  #2

1627954918
Report to moderator
OROBTC
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2226
Merit: 1202



View Profile
November 18, 2019, 01:01:03 AM
Last edit: November 18, 2019, 02:24:16 AM by OROBTC
 #202

...

Address Types of BTC Block Winners (Blocks 604143 – 604242, n = 100)


(Please excuse poor formatting, I'll try another way in another post soon)
                                        
Pool Name                 Address               Blocks Won      

F2Pool                    1KFHE7...          21              
BTC.com                    bc1q18...          15              
AntPool                    12dRug...          12              
Poolin “1” wallet                 1MUz4V...          11              
Poolin “3” wallet                 3HqH1q...            6      
SlushPool                         11CK6K...            6              
ViaBTC                    18cBEM...            5            
Unknown “1” (THash & 58COIN)   147SwR...            4                 
Unknown “4.1” (Huobi)      1C81BG...            4
Unknown “4.2” (Huobi)      1MvYAS...            2
Unknown “5” (okpool.top)      3DNPFX...            3
Unknown “6”                  3QLeXx...            3
Unknown “2” (Spiderpool)      38u1sr...            2
Unknown “7” (bytepool)      39m5Wv...            2
Unknown “3” (BitFury)      3KF9nX...            2              
BTC.TOP                    1Hz96k...            1              
Unknown “8”                 14eygc...            1

Total:                                   100 blocks won


Data looks better here at this Google Drive Link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pLWVImy9E8O9A3yY4RcwkL-HZeiAFTcSudu8oTpk90I/edit?usp=sharing


Notes:

1.   Information on some “Unknowns” from blockchair.com (OP-RETURN info?, from blockchair.com)
2.   There are SIX unique SegWit (addresses) and ONE SegWit Native (address) above, addresses in purple
3.   SegWit addresses (both types) won 33% of the 100 blocks examined
4.   Note Poolin and Huobi have different addresses winning blocks…
5.   Percent blocks won last 24 hours do not add to 100%, probably due to different block winners…
6.   Data from blockchain.info and blockchair.com, and are blocks won approx. midday 17 Nov 2019 (ET)
7.   It might be worthwhile to see if any of the SegWit addresses of miners change as May 2020 gets closer…


17 Nov 2019





jbreher
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2912
Merit: 1515


lose: unfind ... loose: untight


View Profile
November 18, 2019, 02:29:51 AM
 #203

Quote from: Shelby
According to new IRS rulemaking, coins are received when they are manifest on the blockchain. Don’t move your coins to the new blockchain, ergo you have not received them, ergo no tax due.

Unless of course you want to claim them. That’s a problem of your own making.

I’m amazed that you don’t comprehend how a hard fork airdrop works.

I know perfectly well how a hardfork airdrop works, tyvm.

I'm amazed you are seemingly relying upon colloquial definitions of words, in the context where the IRS has very specifically defined them. Have you read the actual ruling? https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rr-19-24.pdf

"A hard fork occurs when a cryptocurrency undergoes a protocol change resulting in a permanent diversion from the legacy distributed ledger.  This may result in the creation of a new cryptocurrency on a new distributed ledger in addition to the legacy cryptocurrency on the legacy distributed ledger.  If your cryptocurrency went through a hard fork, but you did not receive any new cryptocurrency, whether through an airdrop (a distribution of cryptocurrency to multiple taxpayers’ distributed ledger addresses) or some other kind of transfer, you don’t have taxable income." (from the associated IRS FAQ, emphasis added)

Anyone with a campaign ad in their signature -- for an organization with which they are not otherwise affiliated -- is automatically deducted credibility points.

I've been convicted of heresy. Convicted by a mere known extortionist. Read my Trust for details.
THX 1138
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 206
Merit: 103



View Profile
November 18, 2019, 07:41:17 AM
Last edit: November 18, 2019, 06:27:19 PM by THX 1138
 #204

Relaying another message:

Quote from: Shelby
3.   SegWit addresses (both types) won 33% of the 100 blocks examined

This data is rather meaningless, because:

1. The miners which unbeknownst to us at this time will ultimately be aligned with Craig Wright at the initial stage of the warned SegWit donations taking attack, will be able to steal their SegWit tokens back to themselves.

2. Miners typically sell BTC to buy more mining equipment and pay electric bills, so they do not plan to be hodling much BTC at any given time (of a posited attack).




Quote from: Shelby
According to new IRS rulemaking, coins are received when they are manifest on the blockchain. Don’t move your coins to the new blockchain, ergo you have not received them, ergo no tax due.

Unless of course you want to claim them. That’s a problem of your own making.

I’m amazed that you don’t comprehend how a hard fork airdrop works.

I know perfectly well how a hardfork airdrop works, tyvm.

I'm amazed you are seemingly relying upon colloquial definitions of words, in the context where the IRS has very specifically defined them. Have you read the actual ruling? https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rr-19-24.pdf

"A hard fork occurs when a cryptocurrency undergoes a protocol change resulting in a permanent diversion from the legacy distributed ledger.  This may result in the creation of a new cryptocurrency on a new distributed ledger in addition to the legacy cryptocurrency on the legacy distributed ledger.  If your cryptocurrency went through a hard fork, but you did not receive any new cryptocurrency, whether through an airdrop (a distribution of cryptocurrency to multiple taxpayers’ distributed ledger addresses) or some other kind of transfer, you don’t have taxable income." (from the associated IRS FAQ, emphasis added)

The IRS clearly states the conditions by which we will have been deemed to have received the airdrop. The timing is when the hard fork occurs as recorded on the blockchain. A hard fork duplicates the UTXO into two orthogonal ledgers. And since you already hodl the private key that can sign for those tokens on both of the said orthogonal ledgers (instantly after the fork), then you have instantly and automatically received the new cryptocurrency due to the hard fork without any action required on your part. Sorry man, but you’re fucked. The powers-that-be are going to destroy you and take all your crypto wealth. Prepare yourself to live in poverty along with everyone else.

Resolving a long-standing question, the guidance says new cryptocurrencies created from a fork of an existing blockchain should be treated as “an ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received.”

In other words, tax liabilities will apply when the new cryptocurrencies are recorded on a blockchain – if a taxpayer actually has control over the coins and can spend them.

A23.  When you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork, you will have ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received, which is when the transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, provided you have dominion and control over the cryptocurrency so that you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of the cryptocurrency.

A24.  If you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork […] You have received the cryptocurrency when you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of it, which is generally the date and time the airdrop is recorded on the distributed ledger.

Here follows a tax expert explains it to you like you are 5 years old:

“One unfortunate consequence of this guidance is that third parties can now create tax reporting obligations for you by simply forking a network whose coins you own, or foisting on you an unwanted airdrop.”

Individuals would be assessed income when they receive the asset, Hinkes said.

Receipt is defined by ‘dominion and control’ … so it’s ability to transfer, sell, exchange or dispose of the asset according to this guidance,” he said. “The fear is that someone maliciously airdrops and tags you with a giant liability. But [this] fear is a bit oversold because you would only be liable for new income based on the fair market value of the asset when received, and most forks don’t start out with a high valuation.”

Phillips said it was possible that an individual with an ethereum wallet, for example, could receive an ERC-20 token from an airdrop without realizing it. Depending on how the token’s value fluctuates, this may result in them having to pay income tax on an asset that was worth more when they received it than when they sell the asset.

“This can happen when coins hit a high water mark of price discovery right after the airdrop event and the heavy selling could sink the price to a level from which is never recovers,” he said.

Here it is quoted directly from the new IRS guidance:

A hard fork is unique to distributed ledger technology and occurs when a
cryptocurrency on a distributed ledger undergoes a protocol change resulting in a
permanent diversion from the legacy or existing distributed ledger. A hard fork may
result in the creation of a new cryptocurrency on a new distributed ledger in addition to
the legacy cryptocurrency on the legacy distributed ledger
. Following a hard fork,
transactions involving the new cryptocurrency are recorded on the new distributed
ledger and transactions involving the legacy cryptocurrency continue to be recorded on
the legacy distributed ledger.

An airdrop is a means of distributing units of a cryptocurrency to the distributed
ledger addresses of multiple taxpayers. A hard fork followed by an airdrop results in the
distribution of units of the new cryptocurrency to addresses containing the legacy
cryptocurrency
. However, a hard fork is not always followed by an airdrop.
Cryptocurrency from an airdrop generally is received on the date and at the time
it is recorded on the distributed ledger
. However, a taxpayer may constructively receive
cryptocurrency prior to the airdrop being recorded on the distributed ledger. A taxpayer
does not have receipt of cryptocurrency when the airdrop is recorded on the distributed
ledger if the taxpayer is not able to exercise dominion and control over the
cryptocurrency. For example, a taxpayer does not have dominion and control if the
address to which the cryptocurrency is airdropped is contained in a wallet managed
through a cryptocurrency exchange and the cryptocurrency exchange does not support
the newly-created cryptocurrency such that the airdropped cryptocurrency is not
immediately credited to the taxpayer’s account at the cryptocurrency exchange
. If the
taxpayer later acquires the ability to transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of the
cryptocurrency, the taxpayer is treated as receiving the cryptocurrency at that time.

Possessing the private key to sign for the new duplicated, airdropped tokens is precisely “dominion and control”.

Come on man. I hope you can read.

The case the IRS is referring to when tokens are not airdropped is when the new forked ledger does not (or not immediately) duplicate all of the UTXO of the legacy ledger. IOW, if the new fork’s protocol does not allow for your private key “dominion and control” then you would not have received airdropped tokens into your private/public key “account”. Clearly that exception will not be the case with the coming hard fork-off of Core when the legacy miners violate the Core protocol by taking the SegWit tokens as ‘anyone can spend” donations. Also that exception was not the case when BCH forked off from Bitcoin, nor when BSV forked off from BCH. All of these hard forks have been instant and automatic airdrops with income tax accrued to all of us fools.

Many of us already have tax obligations that we have thusly not correctly reported yet. The future penalties and fees are accumulating now as we speak.

Elwar
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3500
Merit: 2216


Viva Ut Vivas


View Profile WWW
November 18, 2019, 05:50:51 PM
 #205

Quote from: Shelby
And thus according to the IRS, those who automatically received this diabolical “free” airdrop owe income tax at the market value on the free Core tokens airdrop at the time of the said timestamp. The market value will be whatever nosebleed BTC price before Craig starts his posited (and warned) SegWit donations “attack”

Upon receipt of any forked coin the forked coin is initially valued at zero. You assume that you have been gifted a zero value token. When you finally sell or exchange that token for something of value you then compare the gifted value (zero) with the value of what you receive upon exchange/sale and you then pay capital gains at that time.

It is akin to receiving a baseball card of little to no value as a gift. But then after 10 years that baseball card is now worth $1 million. You must now pay capital gains on $1 million worth of gains. If you hold that baseball card until your dying days, even though it has a lot of value, you would never need to pay any tax on it.

First seastead company actually selling sea homes: Ocean Builders https://ocean.builders  Of course we accept bitcoin.
THX 1138
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 206
Merit: 103



View Profile
November 18, 2019, 06:44:52 PM
Last edit: November 19, 2019, 04:10:33 AM by THX 1138
 #206

Relaying another message:

Quote from: Shelby
And thus according to the IRS, those who automatically received this diabolical “free” airdrop owe income tax at the market value on the free Core tokens airdrop at the time of the said timestamp. The market value will be whatever nosebleed BTC price before Craig starts his posited (and warned) SegWit donations “attack”

Upon receipt of any forked coin the forked coin is initially valued at zero. You assume that you have been gifted a zero value token. When you finally sell or exchange that token for something of value you then compare the gifted value (zero) with the value of what you receive upon exchange/sale and you then pay capital gains at that time.

It is akin to receiving a baseball card of little to no value as a gift. But then after 10 years that baseball card is now worth $1 million. You must now pay capital gains on $1 million worth of gains. If you hold that baseball card until your dying days, even though it has a lot of value, you would never need to pay any tax on it.

A tax expert disagrees with your opinion:

“This can happen when coins hit a high water mark of price discovery right after the airdrop event and the heavy selling could sink the price to a level from which is never recovers,” he said.

The IRS says the “fair market value” at the time of the fork event as recorded on the blockchain:

Q23.  How do I calculate my income from cryptocurrency I received following a hard fork?
 
A23.  When you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork, you will have ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received, which is when the transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, provided you have dominion and control over the cryptocurrency so that you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of the cryptocurrency.

[…]

A24.  If you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork, your basis in that cryptocurrency is equal to […] the fair market value of the cryptocurrency when you received it.  You have received the cryptocurrency when you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of it, which is generally the date and time the airdrop is recorded on the distributed ledger.

When a taxpayer receives property that is not purchased, unless otherwise provided in the Code, the taxpayer’s basis in the property received is determined by reference to the amount included in gross income, which is the fair
market value of the property when the property is received.

The IRS says that fair market value is the published price on indices aka basket of exchange prices:

Quote
A26.  If you receive cryptocurrency in a peer-to-peer transaction or some other transaction not facilitated by a cryptocurrency exchange, the fair market value of the cryptocurrency is determined as of the date and time the transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, or would have been recorded on the ledger if it had been an on-chain transaction.  The IRS will accept as evidence of fair market value the value as determined by a cryptocurrency or blockchain explorer that analyzes worldwide indices of a cryptocurrency and calculates the value of the cryptocurrency at an exact date and time.  If you do not use an explorer value, you must establish that the value you used is an accurate representation of the cryptocurrency’s fair market value.

The IRS says that if there’s no exchange markets for the token, then the reasonable fair market value applies:

Quote
Q27.  I received cryptocurrency that does not have a published value in exchange for property or services.  How do I determine the cryptocurrency’s fair market value?
 
A27.  When you receive cryptocurrency in exchange for property or services, and that cryptocurrency is not traded on any cryptocurrency exchange and does not have a published value, then the fair market value of the cryptocurrency received is equal to the fair market value of the property or services exchanged for the cryptocurrency when the transaction occurs.

There has been no major forked airdrop token that was trading at $0 the instant it appeared on an exchange. So the IRS will never agree that the fair market value is $0. When BCH forked off from Bitcoin, the value of BCH was the first exchange prices recorded for the token.

When Core forks off from Bitcoin, then since Bitcoin Core is currently the official Bitcoin, then the exchange price of BTC will apply at the moment of the fork. This is likely why the powers-that-be which created Bitcoin and this diabolical 666 plan for it, also funded Blockstream. You go research the banksters who provided the funding for Blockstream aka Core. Educate yourself son.

Elwar
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3500
Merit: 2216


Viva Ut Vivas


View Profile WWW
November 18, 2019, 10:30:33 PM
 #207

The airdrop is akin to a "gift". The IRS tends to hold the gift giver responsible for paying any tax owed. So if Craig Wright forks Bitcoin in such a way that it initially has value upon being airdropped, he will be liable for tax payments to the IRS of the sum of all bitcoins in existence times the price.

Who pays the gift tax? The donor is generally responsible for paying the gift tax.

So it's on him to hope that when he gifts the coins, they are worth zero.

First seastead company actually selling sea homes: Ocean Builders https://ocean.builders  Of course we accept bitcoin.
THX 1138
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 206
Merit: 103



View Profile
November 19, 2019, 04:10:11 AM
 #208

Relaying the final reply:

Quote from: Shelby
The airdrop is akin to a "gift". The IRS tends to hold the gift giver responsible for paying any tax owed. So if Craig Wright forks Bitcoin in such a way that it initially has value upon being airdropped, he will be liable for tax payments to the IRS of the sum of all bitcoins in existence times the price.

Who pays the gift tax? The donor is generally responsible for paying the gift tax.

So it's on him to hope that when he gifts the coins, they are worth zero.

Incorrect theory. The IRS has already stated on their FAQ that the airdrops are not gifts and instead are income.

The reason is because there’s no donor to pay the gift tax. And there’s no individual discretion nor individual control involved in creating the airdrops. The blockchain which is making the gifts (via the miners who choose to mine the new protocol) is a decentralized entity. The creator of the protocol can’t force the miners to mine, and thus has no control over the assignment of the gifts. The individual miners have no control nor discretion over the rules of the protocol, they have to either mine it or not mine it collectively. Note in the case of proof-of-stake which can be provably shown to be controlled by a coordinated oligarchy, then indeed there would be individual control and thus it would be gift and that oligarchy would be liable for the gift tax!

It is explained this way:


Because they are legally required to give you the prizes you've won—if, of course, you're that lucky—just like your employer is legally required to give you your wages when you work for them. (There are exceptions if you voluntarily forfeit the prizes for some reason, and the taxes you would have to pay are in fact a common reason, but the basic idea is the same.) A gift implies the lack of legal obligation for the giver to have given you anything at all and they're doing it only because they're nice people or it's a special occasion like Christmas or your birthday.

And note that giving away the airdrops (or burning them to a non-spendable address):

One way you can get out of paying taxes on your game show winnings is by gifting them to friends and family members. According to IRS rules, you are eligible to gift up to $14,000 per year to as many individuals as you want.

Although you won’t be able to keep the money for yourself, it’s a great way to share your earnings with your family and avoid paying taxes on that portion of your game show winnings.

Will not absolve the income tax liability because the value of what you donate (by the time you can transfer the airdropped Core shitcoins you received) will be much lower by the time you can donate them and you may never be able to transfer them because as the attack begins Core blockchain will slow down to perhaps one new block every week or month thus backlogging the mempool and your transaction never getting into a block ever again:

You include the value of a prize won in your income. If you itemize deductions, you deduct the value of the prize won on Schedule A. Depending on the size of your prize and your other itemized deductions, you could wind up with zero net taxable income by donating a prize won to charity.

The evil powers-that-be who created Bitcoin and this trap thought it out very well. They closed all the means of escape.
Elwar
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3500
Merit: 2216


Viva Ut Vivas


View Profile WWW
November 20, 2019, 10:54:40 PM
 #209

Another halving...another idiot proclaiming that at the halving the blocks will not be mined.

Even as shitty as the bcash startup was on the fork with blocks hardly ever being mined for the first month or so...the difficulty eventually adjusted and they have their small mining operation keeping things going.

See: November 2012 scare
See: July 2016 terror

First seastead company actually selling sea homes: Ocean Builders https://ocean.builders  Of course we accept bitcoin.
Fatoshi
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 672
Merit: 251



View Profile
November 21, 2019, 06:45:22 AM
 #210

What is the solution for BTC holders? Should we sell to fiat at halving and then buy back into legacy BTC after a fork has happened? Is there any way around this issue IF it happened?
THX 1138
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 206
Merit: 103



View Profile
November 24, 2019, 05:07:41 PM
Last edit: November 25, 2019, 06:59:58 PM by THX 1138
 #211

OK, this is without a doubt the FINAL time I'll be relaying a message on this forum from Shelby. If I am tempted to in future (including any additions) I promise to change my password to randomised characters so I'll be locked out for good, otherwise my word is meaningless. So here you go for the last time:

Quote from: Shelby
What is the solution for BTC holders? Should we sell to fiat at halving and then buy back into legacy BTC after a fork has happened? Is there any way around this issue IF it happened?

Because of destructive censorship (c.f. also), this is absolutely the final post written by me which is granted my permission to be shared on BCTalk. I felt obligated to reply because otherwise you’d not have a concise and clear summary of possible countermeasures. I will hopefully converse with you guys again at a decentralized forum (that runs on a truly decentralized blockchain) in the future. In the meantime, you can find updates from me on my Steemit, Busy, Medium, Twitter, and Protonmail accounts. Direct future questions to those non-BCTalk accounts, else you will not receive a reply from me:


As a consequence of my recent epiphany, just hodling in legacy addresses that start with a 1 is no longer sufficient. My stratagem is sell what I will forever need in fiat from cryptocosm capital gains, some days or weeks before the halving (before Craig has initiated his private legacy chain so as to avoid the posited implicit income taxation) iff (if and only if) the price is significantly above $20k (which will be the indicator that the SegWit attack is proceeding or not. c.f. also), and hodl the rest (in minimum of 1 BTC outputs, because transaction fees will rise so much after the posited SegWit attack, if it occurs) to exchange it at $1 million valuations (in the future after the dust settles, c.f. also) anonymously on an anonymous decentralized exchange for a truly anonymous altcoin. You will likely never again be able to convert that crypto to fiat (c.f. also). It will have to stay in the dark economy that will presumably grow as the coming global financial and monetary crisis foists radical totalitarianism on the world, c.f. also. That’s the only option I can find so far. If the authorities know you had that Bitcoin, then perhaps try to claim the private keys were stolen.

Disclaimer: none of this is investment nor legal advice. Do your own independent due diligence. I’m not a professional adviser, and this is only for your entertainment. Consult your own professional advisers. I am not advising you to break the law nor “the illusion of the rule-of-law”. Red-pill or blue-pill, or puke-green-fuckitall-pill, it’s your choice. Gold, bullets, booze, hookers, ephebophilia, Lambos, cocaine, confession and religion are optional.

Of course this entire thread (and all linked blogs and comment posts) are archived at archive.is and archive.org.

P.S. I posted a Medium comment about the timing and all:


Indeed your blog Why Bitcoin and Crypto Have No Future is an excellent, enumerated description of why the cryptocosm is building to the crescendo of the analogous turn-of-the-century dot.com mania bubble top. Mainstreet and Wallstreet are being onboarded for the slaughter with for example Bakkt. And the incipient nosebleed top for Bitcoin to likely come in 2020/21 at over $1 million, yet if my understanding is correct, then most Bitcoin hodlers will lose all their Bitcoins in SegWit donations to the legacy miners before they can cash out. Yet I posit the coming crash will be due to a threat that is quite different than is widely expected or known. And the future Amazon, eBay, Priceline, Paypal, etc. will be built during coming posited implosion of the cryptocosm, because if posited correctly then the underlying legacy Bitcoin will survive, although the Core Bitcoin (an impostor soft-fork) which everyone incorrectly thinks is Bitcoin will perish when forced to fork-off. The full details are contained in the "Long-term advance notice" discussion thread at the Bitcointalk forum.


boomboom
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1067
Merit: 523



View Profile
November 30, 2019, 11:58:31 PM
 #212

I decided to increase my BSV holdings by 10%, just in case the tulip trust turns out to be true. If some 2010 Satoshi coins move after Jan 1 there will be a major realignment in favour of BSV as previoùs sceptics change their mind. BSV followers won't dump if nothing happens, they are already rusted on for big blocks, so topping up BSV now is an asymmetric bet.
infofront
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2408
Merit: 2315


Shitcoin Minimalist


View Profile
March 01, 2020, 06:19:41 PM
Last edit: March 02, 2020, 03:04:31 AM by infofront
 #213

I noticed that Shelby's still peddling the same hypothesis...

He has an updated blog post: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@anonymint/bitcoin-s-fractal-acceleration-entire-history

gentlemand
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2576
Merit: 2964


Welt Am Draht


View Profile
March 01, 2020, 09:30:39 PM
 #214

I noticed the Shelby's still peddling the same hypothesis...

Still dribbling about 'legacy' Bitcoin and now he's even snuck in a quote from everyone's favourite Australian impersonator. He needs to score some fresh goals to give that cred a top up. However I'm not so sure he scored any the first time round either.
Iamtutut
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 1106
Merit: 128


View Profile
May 13, 2020, 07:34:46 AM
 #215

This 2018 post will be entertaining when it happens.

Capital C for capitalism. BitCoin.


Epic fail.

Failtoshi.
infofront
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2408
Merit: 2315


Shitcoin Minimalist


View Profile
May 14, 2020, 02:59:09 PM
 #216

So, this thread apparently made it into a cointelegraph article. I received an email from AnonyMint with the following update:

Quote from: AnonyMint
Let’s not forget that Satoshi warned us that he had built a game theoretic defense mechanism into Bitcoin which would eventually take back (aka restore) the value taken away by counterfeiting thieves such as the Bitcoin Core “soft fork”:

Quote from: Satoshi Nakamoto
“Imagine if gold turned to lead when stolen.  If the thief gives it back, it turns to gold again,”

(P.S. note the double space after the period which Satoshi always employed even in his accurate anonymous description of Bitcoin in 1999)

Cointelegraph’s recent article  Craig Wright Threatened to Crash The Bitcoin Price… So, What Happened? has mentioned this thread, so it’s time for an update.

Here’s a link to my current and updated idea for a topological, fractal pattern analysis of Bitcoin’s past and future:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/IWtRX5v7-The-Bitcoin-Phoenix-is-rising/

Quote


Based on the identified fractal pattern, I’m not expecting the SegWit donations restoration defense mechanism (aka “attack”) to begin until November 2020.

Which for reasons I elaborate below, I expect said “attack” to coincide with a precipitous rise in the BTC valuation which may give rise to 1988 Economist Magazine’s forecast of the Phoenix monetary reset:

Legacy Bitcoin Rises Surreptitiously as the Reserve in a new Two-tier Monetary System; whilst impostor Bitcoin Core Dies

Tangentially it’s a posited (monetary, economic and technological paradigmatic) totalitarian, globalist reset which as we were warned (c.f. also and also) ostensibly Satan’s powers-that-be (e.g. it’s minions Bill Gates and George Soros) are foisting onto the world with the unstoppable, encroaching coronavirus plaNdemic hoax.

My above linked blog cites Craig Wright’s update from February 2020 wherein Craig implied that my posited interpretation for a donations attack would begin sometime this year.

My above linked Tradingview chart’s newly identified fractal, topological pattern (deterministically chaotic, fractal wave interference fundamentally driven by the changing economics of mining) derives from and continues my thought process (from my subsequent blogs) of improving upon some conceptual ideas I had blogged about months ago:

McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price

Bitcoin’s Fractal Acceleration Entire History

Quote


Bitcoin Fractal Projects an Infinite Price

Legacy Bitcoin to radically outperform gold

Quote


Bitcoin’s Whiplash Spike Low is Even More Bullish

Bitcoin’s Whiplash Bear Trap

End of democracy and a Civil COLD War approaches

Facebook’s Libra + Bitcoin + Trump + Israel = 666 Orwellian Dystopia

Rise of Hard Money is a Harbinger of Misery

Insane Clusterfuck of the Collapse of Rule-of-law, Eventually to Imprison Most Westerners

Quote


Now we can see all my past warnings are coming to fruition. That includes my seminal warnings from 2013:

Bitcoin: The Digital Kill Switch

Economic Devastation: Demise of Finance, Rise of Knowledge

Which even Bill Still (and others in and outside the gold bug community) cited in 2013:

https://www.facebook.com/134596416691780/posts/shelby-moore-is-a-programmer-with-expert-knowledge-of-the-construction-of-bitcoi/174998752651546/

In addition to the fractal pattern timing for the next parabolic rise in the BTC price, it seems to me that it’s in the interest of the anonymous Bitcoin whales who were likely involved in the creation of Bitcoin, to idle the BTC price at low enough prices long enough such that they can mop up all pre-7nm ASICS (e.g. Bitmain S9s) at firesale prices before catapulting the price so high that S9s become insanely profitable again:

Precisely Why Bitcoin Is Re-accelerating

Quote




Not because they necessarily need the hashrate those S9s can provide when reactivated, but because the entire design of Bitcoin is to raise the valuation of Bitcoin (eventually to the world’s master-and-servant reserve currency in a two-tiered monetary system) without creating competing $billionaires and $trillionaires. They don’t want some smaller $millionaires fish speculating and obtaining S9s cheaply before they skyrocket the price because the bullish leverage on an out-of-money ASIC right before an egregious BTC price pump is incredibly high. Instead they want smaller fish to buy in-the-money 7nm ASICS so they will be slaughtered as usual by Moore’s law and other economies-of-scale and volatility of mining (along with the impeding Mother of All Crises Greater Depression which will drive the upcoming monetary reset 2024 – 2028).

Also I think they would prefer to execute the “attack” to create chaos around the time or just after the upcoming contentious November 2020 constitutional crisis and re-election of POTUS Donald Trump, as well as during an re-intensified lockdown (wherein no one will be allowed to leave their homes for any reason and the gestapo will forcibly remove people from homes to take them to FEMA quarantine camps) as the hoax virus (which is really just the normal flu) returns next flu season.

However it’s possible that the March crash or combined with another month or so until and still under $15k, would be sufficient to mop up most of the S9s. But I doubt it. There are still many bullish minnows who don’t want to dump their S9s just yet. The powers-that-be need to squeeze them with an economic depression to force them to liquidate.

I did this week also independently arrive at a posited fractal pattern expectation for $14k by June 2020, which Cointelegraph has also subsequently contemplated:

Bitcoin Price Chart Fractal Seen in 2019 Hints at $14K Within Months

So the SegWit donations attack could still be in play for as early as June 2020, but it doesn’t seem to ideally align with the timing projections from the fractal pattern correspondence (i.e. Bitcoin’s chart topology) and other fundamental economic considerations.

As cited in the OP of this thread and the said recent Cointelegraph article, Craig Wright warned in 2018, “The sale will align to a reward halving.” The word ‘align’ does not have the same meaning as ‘coincide’:

Quote
put (things) into correct or appropriate relative positions.
"the fan blades are carefully aligned"
lie in a straight line, or in correct relative positions.

The the sale could occur at any time that “aligns” in a correct relative position with the halving — not necessarily coinciding with the day, week or month of the halving itself.

If the posited SegWit donations attack were underway now we should see Craig Wright moving his claimed ~million BTC (the airdropped Bitcoin Core isolated from his private legacy Bitcoin fork which he would later publish) onto to a liquid exchange (or exchanges) to prepare to dump them. Yet that appears to not be happening:

$200M Worth of BTC Removed From Exchanges Post-Halving
zoidsoft
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 6
Merit: 0


View Profile WWW
May 20, 2020, 01:20:37 AM
 #217

Child prodigy theoretical physicist Luboš Motl engaged AnonyMint in discussion on Quora about the future of Bitcoin. The discussion began here:

http://archive.is/https://www.quora.com/Is-it-possible-for-Bitcoin-to-completely-shut-down/answer/Lubo%C5%A1-Motl/comment/95846451

Here was AnonyMint’s latest reply:

Thanks for engaging in discussion.

I presume you grok topology, deterministic chaos theory and the underlying fractal basis of nature more deeply than I do.

Finally We May Have a Path to the Fundamental Theory of Physics…  and It’s Beautiful—Stephen Wolfram Writings

Note Wolfram admits his theory isn’t falsifiable, but that’s because a universal T.O.E. must model the multiverse.

I’ll refer to a historical log chart for BTC/USD with my annotations:

Long term advance notice!

That chart is telling us that Bitcoin will go to $1 million by 2021/22, yet how is it at this time of increasing leftist government totalitarianism (i.e. the corona virus plaNdemic hoax) that Bitcoin becomes a safe haven?

The hypothetical explanation in the above linked post. It’s necessary to understand what imparts the valuation to Bitcoin per the blogs I’ve linked from the above linked post. Oh yeah for sure most of the Bitcoins are going to be sequestered by the governments sending the valuation of those which are not sequestered to the moon. You’re ostensibly not aware of all the requisite details. There are two types of Bitcoins: Core and legacy. Core Bitcoins have an address that begins with `3` or `bc1`; whereas, legacy Bitcoins start with a `1`. There will be a bifurcation that becomes acute perhaps by November and ultimately nobody is going to accept the Bitcoins which were recovered as “stolen” donations:

Our Bitcoins Will Be Taken/Frozen By the Miners; Involuntary INCOME Tax on Frozen Bitcoin!

Indeed the government does sometimes confiscate wealth. And this Darwinism produces the globalist elite who manipulate the governments (in order to protect their wealth). Yet this phenomenon unfortunately also opens the door for psychopath[1] $billionaires to REKT the entire economy as a certain one which I will not name is doing now. Note that the collective resource is a power vacuum that requires it be managed by power:

Some Iron Laws of Political Economics

You were a child prodigy theoretical physicist. You’ve got more raw, mental processing power than I do. But the devil is in the details. You need to open your mind and learn more about what you don’t know. The smartest individuals are humbled by how much they don’t know.

[1] The correct term is not sociopath.
hv_
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2002
Merit: 1049

Clean Code and Scale


View Profile WWW
May 20, 2020, 08:30:02 AM
 #218

Child prodigy theoretical physicist Luboš Motl engaged AnonyMint in discussion on Quora about the future of Bitcoin. The discussion began here:

http://archive.is/https://www.quora.com/Is-it-possible-for-Bitcoin-to-completely-shut-down/answer/Lubo%C5%A1-Motl/comment/95846451

Here was AnonyMint’s latest reply:

Thanks for engaging in discussion.

I presume you grok topology, deterministic chaos theory and the underlying fractal basis of nature more deeply than I do.

Finally We May Have a Path to the Fundamental Theory of Physics…  and It’s Beautiful—Stephen Wolfram Writings

Note Wolfram admits his theory isn’t falsifiable, but that’s because a universal T.O.E. must model the multiverse.

I’ll refer to a historical log chart for BTC/USD with my annotations:

Long term advance notice!

That chart is telling us that Bitcoin will go to $1 million by 2021/22, yet how is it at this time of increasing leftist government totalitarianism (i.e. the corona virus plaNdemic hoax) that Bitcoin becomes a safe haven?

The hypothetical explanation in the above linked post. It’s necessary to understand what imparts the valuation to Bitcoin per the blogs I’ve linked from the above linked post. Oh yeah for sure most of the Bitcoins are going to be sequestered by the governments sending the valuation of those which are not sequestered to the moon. You’re ostensibly not aware of all the requisite details. There are two types of Bitcoins: Core and legacy. Core Bitcoins have an address that begins with `3` or `bc1`; whereas, legacy Bitcoins start with a `1`. There will be a bifurcation that becomes acute perhaps by November and ultimately nobody is going to accept the Bitcoins which were recovered as “stolen” donations:

Our Bitcoins Will Be Taken/Frozen By the Miners; Involuntary INCOME Tax on Frozen Bitcoin!

Indeed the government does sometimes confiscate wealth. And this Darwinism produces the globalist elite who manipulate the governments (in order to protect their wealth). Yet this phenomenon unfortunately also opens the door for psychopath[1] $billionaires to REKT the entire economy as a certain one which I will not name is doing now. Note that the collective resource is a power vacuum that requires it be managed by power:

Some Iron Laws of Political Economics

You were a child prodigy theoretical physicist. You’ve got more raw, mental processing power than I do. But the devil is in the details. You need to open your mind and learn more about what you don’t know. The smartest individuals are humbled by how much they don’t know.

[1] The correct term is not sociopath.

with this part , I fear old Shelby's coming back to sanity, cause that is pretty much correctly analysed

Quote

Craig Wright recently warned that global coordination such as via the intergovernmental global agency Financial Action Task Force (FATF) will force the miners to freeze Bitcoins which were involved in crime. Craig made the very specific prediction that the Bitcoin of Chinese fentanyl dealers to be frozen in 2020. In August of this year Trump’s administration announced that Chinese drug lords are using Bitcoin. Remember China wants a trade deal and their help with impeding the flow of fentanyl to the USA is one of Trump’s demands.

They will destroy us both with income taxes for the involuntary airdrop, the inability to spend after the attack because blocks will be full of donated SegWit tokens, and then later the FATF will declare that all SegWit lineage coins must be frozen because they possibly were involved in off-chain Lightning Networks (LN) crap which is not fully traceable! Ah fuck! Why did I not think of that. Now I totally understand what Craig has been warning[foaming at the mouth] about.

Miners / their corporations have grown such that regulators kick in - the raspi no2x army has lost that hash-war (lol - cause they have 0-PoW) and miners must comply with rules incl AML / travel rules .... so they getting towards payment processors (regged - like TAAL
 or REKT by govs / economics).

sure - all the criminals / anonymous do not like that - but who likes them?

Carpe diem  -  understand the White Paper and mine honest.
Fix real world issues: Check out b-vote.com
The simple way is the genius way - Satoshi's Rules: humana veris _
infofront
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2408
Merit: 2315


Shitcoin Minimalist


View Profile
May 22, 2020, 01:44:22 PM
Last edit: May 22, 2020, 03:09:50 PM by infofront
 #219

https://www.reddit.com/r/bsv/comments/go4ppp/breaking_craig_wright_cryptographically_proved/

Quote
Wright also produced (perhaps unintentionally), a “keys.dat” file containing the private key that was necessary to send the messages from the bit message account he claims was associated with David Kleiman. In other words, Wright undeniably had the ability to send these messages.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 [11]  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!