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TimeBits
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May 28, 2019, 09:44:50 PM
Last edit: May 28, 2019, 10:09:18 PM by TimeBits
 #1

How big will the blockchain core wallet be to download in 2025? To have the full chain on my computer?

According to Blockchain.info, the Bitcoin blockchain was 149 GB at the end of 2017. It's 157.8 GB at time of writing. This represents “the total size of all block headers and transactions.

So how big by end of 2025? anyone have a guesstimate?

Why not, since every block is a save point, the way I see it. If people want to become full nodes they only have to start from the last block? the last check point, or is there a way to compress this data and if the compress data matches they can download the entire chain in like 1gb.

Sorry I am a noob when it comes to coding, so this may not make sense to you.

I think on bitcoin.org there should be like a download from the last block

What stops someone from making a trillion addresses before they update their chain? won`t there be collisions in the future? How does the bitcoin wallet know if it is not connected that I created trillion^256 addresses before it rolls out? I can make wallets offline right?

I think I know a fix to this or a few ways actually.
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May 28, 2019, 09:55:06 PM
Last edit: May 28, 2019, 10:14:51 PM by khaled0111
 #2

Actually, blockchain size is more than 220 GB not 157.8 GB

According to current stats on blockchain.com, a bkock's average size is 1.26 MB. From now till the end of 2025 there are 3469023 minutes. If we devide it by 10 which is the average time to find a new block, we will have 346902 more blocks.
3469023*1.26/1024 = 426.85 + 220 = 646.85 GB <= just speculating  Smiley

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TimeBits
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May 28, 2019, 09:55:14 PM
 #3

My guess is 3tb by 2025
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May 28, 2019, 10:33:18 PM
 #4

My guess is 3tb by 2025
That's too much look at the progress from 2010 to 2019 the current blockchain size is around 220gb.

Since the hashrate keeps increasing every year and there's new miner come up with higher hashrate possibly finding blocks can be found in shorter time.

So my guesstimate is around 440gb. I'm not sure but this is just my prediction.

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May 28, 2019, 11:11:06 PM
Last edit: May 29, 2019, 06:32:01 PM by achow101
Merited by Foxpup (6), bones261 (2), ETFbitcoin (1), khaled0111 (1), TimeBits (1)
 #5

How big will the blockchain core wallet be to download in 2025? To have the full chain on my computer?
First of all, there's no such thing as "blockchain core". There is the Bitcoin blockchain. Bitcoin Core is the most commonly used node software for Bitcoin.

Over the last 30 days, the average block size has been 1.188 MB, let's call it 1.2 MB to make calculations easier. There are about 3.468 million minutes between now and the end of 2025. Assuming blocks every 10 minutes (this is not necessarily a safe assumption because blocks are actually produced faster than that, though I don't know the exact number off the top of my head), there will be ~346800 blocks found between now and then. At 1.2 MB per block, that's an additional 416160 MB of block data, which is 416 GB. According to my node, the blockchain is currently 207 GB (this ignores the indexes, databases, and other data necessary to make a node work with just the raw blocks), so 207 + 416 = 623 GB. Thus by the end of 2025, the Bitcoin blockchain will be around 623 GB in size, assuming no block size increase or decrease.

Why not, since every block is a save point, the way I see it. If people want to become full nodes they only have to start from the last block? the last check point,
What you are proposing is not safe. By starting from the last block (or even just a recent block), new nodes will be unable to verify the entire blockchain and thus they cannot be sure that they are not using some chain produced by an attacker. They now have to trust that the person who gave them their starting point is honest. This is additional trust and reduces the security of such nodes. Furthermore, too recent of a block can result in issues when blocks are reorged, i.e. orphan blocks.

or is there a way to compress this data and if the compress data matches they can download the entire chain in like 1gb.
Because the blockchain contains a large amount of random data, it is not very compressible. Lossless compression algorithms do not perform very will with random data.

What stops someone from making a trillion addresses before they update their chain? won`t there be collisions in the future? How does the bitcoin wallet know if it is not connected that I created trillion^256 addresses before it rolls out? I can make wallets offline right?
No, there won't be. Firstly, addresses aren't registered with the blockchain or anything like that. When you generate an address, you typically don't check whether it has been used before by someone else because the probability of that is so so tiny that it is basically 0. It's practically impossible to accidentally produce two of the same addresses (barring things like bad RNGs).

The number of possible addresses is so large that if you generated a trillion addresses per second it would take you over 38000 years just to have a 50% probability that you have found a collision. Furthermore, you would have generated so many addresses that whatever collided is almost definitely going to be an address that you had generated, not someone elses. The number of addresses is just so unfathomably large that the human mind cannot comprehend such numbers. There are so many possible addresses that a collision is basically impossible.

Additionally, by 2025, everyone will probably be using some other address scheme at that point which allows for even more possible addresses.

edit: I fat-fingered 2022 and not 2025

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May 28, 2019, 11:31:21 PM
 #6

There are about 1.792 million minutes between now and the end of 2025.
I used this website and it shows that there is exactly 3 464 628 minutes between now and the end of 2025 !!

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May 28, 2019, 11:36:25 PM
 #7

My guess is 3tb by 2025
That's too much look at the progress from 2010 to 2019 the current blockchain size is around 220gb.

Since the hashrate keeps increasing every year and there's new miner come up with higher hashrate possibly finding blocks can be found in shorter time.

So my guesstimate is around 440gb. I'm not sure but this is just my prediction.

the avarage time is 10 minutes, if the hashrate keeps increasing the difficulty will follow in 2 week tops
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May 28, 2019, 11:40:02 PM
Last edit: May 28, 2019, 11:54:54 PM by TimeBits
 #8

How big will the blockchain core wallet be to download in 2025? To have the full chain on my computer?
First of all, there's no such thing as "blockchain core". There is the Bitcoin blockchain. Bitcoin Core is the most commonly used node software for Bitcoin.

Over the last 30 days, the average block size has been 1.188 MB, let's call it 1.2 MB to make calculations easier. There are about 1.792 million minutes between now and the end of 2025. Assuming blocks every 10 minutes (this is not necessarily a safe assumption because blocks are actually produced faster than that, though I don't know the exact number off the top of my head), there will be ~179200 blocks found between now and then. At 1.2 MB per block, that's an additional 215040 MB of block data, which is 215 GB. According to my node, the blockchain is currently 207 GB (this ignores the indexes, databases, and other data necessary to make a node work with just the raw blocks), so 207 + 215 = 422 GB. Thus by the end of 2025, the Bitcoin blockchain will be around 422 GB in size, assuming no block size increase or decrease.

Why not, since every block is a save point, the way I see it. If people want to become full nodes they only have to start from the last block? the last check point,
What you are proposing is not safe. By starting from the last block (or even just a recent block), new nodes will be unable to verify the entire blockchain and thus they cannot be sure that they are not using some chain produced by an attacker. They now have to trust that the person who gave them their starting point is honest. This is additional trust and reduces the security of such nodes. Furthermore, too recent of a block can result in issues when blocks are reorged, i.e. orphan blocks.

or is there a way to compress this data and if the compress data matches they can download the entire chain in like 1gb.
Because the blockchain contains a large amount of random data, it is not very compressible. Lossless compression algorithms do not perform very will with random data.

What stops someone from making a trillion addresses before they update their chain? won`t there be collisions in the future? How does the bitcoin wallet know if it is not connected that I created trillion^256 addresses before it rolls out? I can make wallets offline right?
No, there won't be. Firstly, addresses aren't registered with the blockchain or anything like that. When you generate an address, you typically don't check whether it has been used before by someone else because the probability of that is so so tiny that it is basically 0. It's practically impossible to accidentally produce two of the same addresses (barring things like bad RNGs).

The number of possible addresses is so large that if you generated a trillion addresses per second it would take you over 38000 years just to have a 50% probability that you have found a collision. Furthermore, you would have generated so many addresses that whatever collided is almost definitely going to be an address that you had generated, not someone elses. The number of addresses is just so unfathomably large that the human mind cannot comprehend such numbers. There are so many possible addresses that a collision is basically impossible.

Additionally, by 2025, everyone will probably be using some other address scheme at that point which allows for even more possible addresses.

oh sorry I mean bitcoin core, well I want to be safe that is the whole point of this. Is there no way to stop duplicate addresses from being generated, why not like a address within a address or just like a doubler like 1BDvQZjaAJH4ecZ8aL3fYgTi7rnn3o2thE(1) 1BDvQZjaAJH4ecZ8aL3fYgTi7rnn3o2thE(2)? it is blockchain after all no? and yah in the future we will have to add unlimited address gen or something, bitcoin might be around a lot longer then most of us can foresee. I expect the aliens on planet D93-F3JN to use this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fchC0Dscm9I They won`t like fiat.

Anyways, nice to hear from a smart person, can I ask you something off topic, how do you feel about this simulation? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7TLFyK_3Pk
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May 29, 2019, 06:14:02 PM
Merited by Husna QA (1)
 #9

Over the last 30 days, the average block size has been 1.188 MB, let's call it 1.2 MB to make calculations easier. There are about 1.792 million minutes between now and the end of 2025. Assuming blocks every 10 minutes (this is not necessarily a safe assumption because blocks are actually produced faster than that, though I don't know the exact number off the top of my head), there will be ~179200 blocks found between now and then. At 1.2 MB per block, that's an additional 215040 MB of block data, which is 215 GB. According to my node, the blockchain is currently 207 GB (this ignores the indexes, databases, and other data necessary to make a node work with just the raw blocks), so 207 + 215 = 422 GB. Thus by the end of 2025, the Bitcoin blockchain will be around 422 GB in size, assuming no block size increase or decrease.

Actually there are about 3.5 million between now and the end of 2025. If we're looking for biggest possible number, then it'd be :
  • Actual block time : 9.4 minutes
  • Biggest block size : 2.28 MB (on block #566575)
  • Minutes between now and the end of 2025 : 3467520
  • Current blockchain size : 252.9 GB (size on my device excluding chainstate & txindex)

3467520 / 9.4 * 2.28 = 841058 MB (821.34 GB)

So blockchain size on the end of 2025 would be : 252.9 GB + 821.34 GB = 1074.24 GB

Source :
1. https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/566575
2. https://howlongagogo.com/date/2025/december/31

oh sorry I mean bitcoin core, well I want to be safe that is the whole point of this. Is there no way to stop duplicate addresses from being generated, why not like a address within a address or just like a doubler like 1BDvQZjaAJH4ecZ8aL3fYgTi7rnn3o2thE(1) 1BDvQZjaAJH4ecZ8aL3fYgTi7rnn3o2thE(2)?

The most important question is, why do you want to prevent duplicate address & use address(n) format? There are several obvious disadvantage :
1. Encourage address re-use again
2. Slightly bigger transaction size due to longer address format

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May 29, 2019, 06:44:13 PM
Merited by ETFbitcoin (1)
 #10

Is there no way to stop duplicate addresses from being generated, why not like a address within a address or just like a doubler like 1BDvQZjaAJH4ecZ8aL3fYgTi7rnn3o2thE(1) 1BDvQZjaAJH4ecZ8aL3fYgTi7rnn3o2thE(2)? it is blockchain after all no?
Addresses do not actually exist on the blockchain. Addresses are just a thing that makes it easier for humans to use Bitcoin. The actual blockchain does not contain addresses nor does it have balances for addresses. An address is just description of the output script that should be used in a transaction. Output scripts are actually what determine who can spend that particular output. These scripts are programs, so anything that can satisfy them can spend that output. If two people happened to generate the same address and thus receive Bitcoin at the same output script, there is no way for the script interpreter to know that one particular output is for person A and another with the exact same script is for person B. It is simply impossible.

Regardless, collisions are immensely unlikely and the amount of time it takes to even get to 50% probability for a collision is so long that those addresses will be useless anyways.

The recent segwit v1 proposal makes collisions even less likely. Currently addresses use a 160 bit hash so there are 2^160 possible addresses. However segwit v1 uses the pubkey itself for the address so there are 2^256 possible addresses. This means that to get a 50% probability of a collision, you would need to generate 2^128 pubkeys (due to the birthday paradox). If you generate 1 trillion pubkeys per second, it would take 1.078*10^19  years to reach that 50% probability. That many years is 7.8*10^8 times the age of the universe.

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May 29, 2019, 11:55:40 PM
 #11

What stops someone from making a trillion addresses before they update their chain? won`t there be collisions in the future?
nothing can stop that, but hitting a collision is very improbable (for explanation read achow101 post above)

I think I know a fix to this or a few ways actually.
please do share, if it is not against basic principles of bitcoin then it would greatly contribute to bitcoin development

Since the hashrate keeps increasing every year and there's new miner come up with higher hashrate possibly finding blocks can be found in shorter time.

the avarage time is 10 minutes, if the hashrate keeps increasing the difficulty will follow in 2 week tops
correct, by its mechanism the interval between blocks will stay averagely 10 mins apart, ~144 blocks/day
network difficulty will be periodically adjusted based on current network hashrate to maintain 10 mins block time
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

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