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Author Topic: Supply and demand curve analysis, why Bitcoin does or does not change price.  (Read 508 times)
fauzan Ichsan
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June 01, 2019, 02:59:38 AM
 #21

We really can't predict the future movement of Bitcoin even if we record and track its previous movements. There are events like halving in the future which could affect its value but we couldn't speculate the exact price of it in the future. Despite considering a lot of factors which could affect the price, there's no one who could speculate the exact value and path of Bitcoin.
right, even though there are many developments nowadays and many people predict that bitcoin will soar later, but that is no guarantee. like the time in 2018, where at the end of that year many price predictions will rise, but all are wrong


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June 01, 2019, 06:17:16 AM
 #22

My prediction is Bitcoin will be quiet steady for today. I expect the price might fall down a bit, do not expect any drastic movement in price to go up, because there is quite an elastic supply for 2.5k bitcoins.






I quote you so we can see the images, it seems like there has been a massive selloff in the last few hours, after hitting $9.100 bitcoins are now down on $8200
Of course it will happen, it is not possible prices will continue to rise, its not possible demand will continue to rise. supply will definitely go up, because the crypto market is filled with many traders and investors, they will definitely sell when they see high prices on the market. price reductions will occur but not in large percent #IMO

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June 01, 2019, 07:28:42 AM
 #23


saying that btc doesn't change price which isn't right at all.We should say atleast that the price is moving sideways yet price is always been volatile.
This is my first time on seeing the demand and supply. Where you do base it off?

Friends were asking often, why BTC doesn't change the price when everyone expected it should. It would stay within some range. The answer is in the demand and supply ratio. So I went calculating to see what are ratios and I found interesting results, which I plotted to graph and may or may not help to other investors. I use data from one of the biggest exchanges, but programmed stuff to have an image as it has now.
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June 01, 2019, 07:39:35 AM
 #24

My prediction is Bitcoin will be quiet steady for today. I expect the price might fall down a bit, do not expect any drastic movement in price to go up, because there is quite an elastic supply for 2.5k bitcoins.






   Is is just because of you think so or there is some calculation or something like that? Where is actual analysis?
I pressed "I do not care" in voting, because of this sort of predictions doesn't look trustworthy for now. I think you need to work on it more to make it attractive and based on facts and correct calculations.

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June 01, 2019, 07:43:22 AM
 #25

https://i.imgur.com/HvZbvFa.png

As you can see, curves are about the same same as two days ago. Nothing much is happening. We have an elastic supply and an elastic demand up to 10 k. The demand curve has a bigger value of slope in short scale. So, we can say there is a higher demand for bitcoin right now. But it should not affect the price a lot.

Note: This is the current image. In one hour anything can be changed.

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June 01, 2019, 08:08:54 AM
 #26

even your predictions do not match reality, we can see if in the past few days bitcoin has fallen and now we are seeing it rise again, right what many people say in this forum that it is difficult to predict the price of bitcoin.

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June 01, 2019, 09:55:39 AM
 #27

My prediction is Bitcoin will be quiet steady for today. I expect the price might fall down a bit, do not expect any drastic movement in price to go up, because there is quite an elastic supply for 2.5k bitcoins.





Your prediction were right though and the price  indeed fell second day after your prediction, but normally, I didn’t need a prediction to know the price was going to fall dip because this has been happening like that when bitcoin surges. It makes it easy for me to be able to trade but I don’t know how long it will keep up with this pattern because I am sure it will not always follow.

This is why I sold when the price got very close to $9k and this dip was my new entry point.I believe from this dip, it should a take us close to $9800 in some weeks’ time before correcting again, and maybe the finally stop would be $11500 for the month of JUNE.
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June 01, 2019, 12:01:50 PM
 #28


   Is is just because of you think so or there is some calculation or something like that? Where is actual analysis?
I pressed "I do not care" in voting, because of this sort of predictions doesn't look trustworthy for now. I think you need to work on it more to make it attractive and based on facts and correct calculations.


Calculations are correct and the results are as they are. Within some confidence level, I can let you know what price range we can expect, applying supply and demand ratio, we can give an assessment in which directions price tends to go. But like I say, my purpose is not to do that. I am just giving you a model prediction on current supply and demand graphs.
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June 01, 2019, 12:03:01 PM
 #29

Of course, I will be interested to see your prediction because that will help me to make my own analysis and I am sure that I will find a way to buy or sell later.
The bitcoin price needs to be stable for a moment before it increases and bitcoin is already making a correction before, so there is a chance for bitcoin price to reach the higher price.
Maybe we will see something in the next week because usually, on the first day in the next week, the price will give some surprise to us so gets ready for that.


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June 01, 2019, 12:09:54 PM
 #30

even your predictions do not match reality, we can see if in the past few days bitcoin has fallen and now we are seeing it rise again, right what many people say in this forum that it is difficult to predict the price of bitcoin.

whoever say he is right about future, is wrong. Please note guys: I am not trying to give you prediction in a way, Bitcoin will be 10k today and 9k tomorrow. I am just looking at a picture and evaluating what is the mood among buyers and sellers.

Currently, it's a fact, that we have a short run supply at 10k. And if all the sudden BTC reaches 10k, we will have price explosion. Is it likely to happen that BTC will reach 10k? I don't know. Is it possible that price will not explode? Yes, it is possible sellers will consolidate the line, but it is very likely the price will jump once it reaches 10k, looking at last published graph.

If anything changes, I will let you know.
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June 01, 2019, 12:22:28 PM
 #31

Of course, I will be interested to see your prediction because that will help me to make my own analysis and I am sure that I will find a way to buy or sell later.
The bitcoin price needs to be stable for a moment before it increases and bitcoin is already making a correction before, so there is a chance for bitcoin price to reach the higher price.
Maybe we will see something in the next week because usually, on the first day in the next week, the price will give some surprise to us so gets ready for that.

That's great.
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June 01, 2019, 01:24:45 PM
 #32

Its good to have an everyday update about the price movements of bitcoin, whether I care or not as long as you are doing this for a great reason then I think your hard work will be worth it. Analyzing the price of bitcoin is not easy because of its volatile movement so your prediction or analysis might not be accurate and you should be ready for the critics. Supply and demand is the one who moves the price of bitcoin, that's a good analysis though.

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June 01, 2019, 09:20:07 PM
 #33

Its good to have an everyday update about the price movements of bitcoin, whether I care or not as long as you are doing this for a great reason then I think your hard work will be worth it. Analyzing the price of bitcoin is not easy because of its volatile movement so your prediction or analysis might not be accurate and you should be ready for the critics. Supply and demand is the one who moves the price of bitcoin, that's a good analysis though.
to be able to make the price of bitcoin need a process, there must be someone who buys and supports bitcoin because if no one buys bitcoin and no one uses bitcoin then the price of bitcoin will not be easy to go up to be expensive.

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June 02, 2019, 02:57:02 AM
 #34

this is good news, and hopefully the information you say is true. because we have had a long mental war in the face of market conditions. but I also still don't believe where is the supply of Bitcoin?
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June 02, 2019, 11:13:43 AM
 #35

My prediction is Bitcoin will be quiet steady for today. I expect the price might fall down a bit, do not expect any drastic movement in price to go up, because there is quite an elastic supply for 2.5k bitcoins.




With bitcoin trading, especially when you consider the fact that a lot of the speculative activity is completely arbitrary and random, and there are many external factors influencing price, I doubt that a single supply/demand graph says much at all.

Also, I don't think that basing it off one single exchange's order books means that this data will be accurate - each exchange has their differing amount of liquidity at a given point in time, and does not reflect the big picture.

By the way, is there any tangible reason as to why you included a demand curve shifted to the right 500 units, or is that just an arbitrary number that you came up with to illustrate a potential increase in demand?

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Onetogo
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June 02, 2019, 11:14:02 AM
 #36

this is good news, and hopefully the information you say is true. because we have had a long mental war in the face of market conditions. but I also still don't believe where is the supply of Bitcoin?

just follow the blue curve.
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June 02, 2019, 11:23:26 AM
 #37

My prediction is Bitcoin will be quiet steady for today. I expect the price might fall down a bit, do not expect any drastic movement in price to go up, because there is quite an elastic supply for 2.5k bitcoins.

https://i.ibb.co/n0FYkCC/btc2-5k.png
https://i.ibb.co/Ks1JNHB/btc5k.png

With bitcoin trading, especially when you consider the fact that a lot of the speculative activity is completely arbitrary and random, and there are many external factors influencing price, I doubt that a single supply/demand graph says much at all.

Also, I don't think that basing it off one single exchange's order books means that this data will be accurate - each exchange has their differing amount of liquidity at a given point in time, and does not reflect the big picture.

By the way, is there any tangible reason as to why you included a demand curve shifted to the right 500 units, or is that just an arbitrary number that you came up with to illustrate a potential increase in demand?

Thank you. It's just an arbitrary curve, to give you an orientation what a random huge buying entry would cause to the market.
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June 02, 2019, 11:35:21 AM
 #38

https://i.ibb.co/HxhKbGh/figure-1-2.png


The global picture is almost the same as yesterday, but this one might be interesting for day (hour) traders. Currently, the demand curve is far more inelastic than the supply curve. It seems currently there is a favor in demand for bitcoin. We might see the price go up if the ratio stays the same in the next couple of hours.
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June 02, 2019, 12:43:22 PM
 #39

Compare last graph with this one:

https://i.ibb.co/ZH6dc0Q/figure-1-2.png


Notice how demand curve wants to flatten above 8.75k USD, it seems demand is loosing on power. CURRENTLY. But who knows what happens next.
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June 02, 2019, 02:36:06 PM
 #40

this is good news, and hopefully the information you say is true. because we have had a long mental war in the face of market conditions.

Mental war for noobs perhaps, but for most people with a few working brain cells the bear market was a fantastic buy back opportunity. Buying back more coins for the same amount of money I got from selling is my main goal when it comes to accumulation, and I'm sure that applies to a lot more people.

At the deepest point of the bear market Bitcoin was quite clearly oversold, while some altcoins did well maintaining their value. XRP is a good example of that. People holding it wonder why it's not going up as much as the rest, but they don't understand that it had done well when other altcoins performed bad. Its USD price is exactly where it should be in relation to other altcoins.

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