Lost Bitcoins and how they affect market in a longterm?

[rdluffy]

I'm trying to figure what's the effect of all lost coins in a longterm

I understand all lost BTC are in blockchain, they are not "lost", but people probably forgot them or lost the private keys to access
People only says it's good because of the scarcity, our "active" BTC will value more

But all energy and efforts to generate these BTC are for nothing to?
Is there any word of the devs about this?
Do you think someday devs will discuss about?

[dothebeats]

They effectively reduce the total availble supply of bitcoins in the world thus making each remaining bitcoin in theory. As what we perceive, rarity is almost always tied with value, so less available bitcoins = higher value per bitcoin remaining. We might not see the effects of such yet in the market knowing that we still have 4 or so million bitcoins left to mine and will take the next 120 yrs to mine them. Also, bitcoin is still heavily effected by speculation, and perhaps will continue to do so until such time that its value goes through the roof that people would just keep it rather than risk losing it in trades.

[BrewMaster]

it depends on how much you think is lost and whether that amount can actually affect anything. so far we are not seeing any effects (like downsides) of any losses that has so far occurred with lost coins and burnt coins so there is not much to discuss.
the only case when we can start worrying about something like this is only when a very large amount of coins are lost . very large in this context means something like 15 million bitcoins not a couple of thousands!

[Adriano2010]

They are not lost, the problem is that they can't be accessed, and on that way we can have maybe some higher value for bitcoins who are on exchanges and this is it, some of this bitcoin was bought on exchanges and after maybe they lost the keys or hardware where the wallet was.

[rdluffy]

They are not lost, the problem is that they can't be accessed, and on that way we can have maybe some higher value for bitcoins who are on exchanges and this is it, some of this bitcoin was bought on exchanges and after maybe they lost the keys or hardware where the wallet was.

This is exactly what I said "I understand all lost BTC are in blockchain, they are not "lost", but people probably forgot them or lost the private keys to access"

[Fredomago]

They are not lost, the problem is that they can't be accessed, and on that way we can have maybe some higher value for bitcoins who are on exchanges and this is it, some of this bitcoin was bought on exchanges and after maybe they lost the keys or hardware where the wallet was.

This is exactly what I said "I understand all lost BTC are in blockchain, they are not "lost", but people probably forgot them or lost the private keys to access"

It will stay that way, or if ever those people who will be able to remember or to crack them up will enjoy the benefits, seeing how far bitcoin
went in terms of value, we can't tell what possibilities but it can happen, the dev don't have any access with those loss coins as private keys are
hold by the owner/s itself.

[DdmrDdmr]

This stat shows what some source has estimated BTC distribution in terms of liquidity, which gives us an insight to the question mentioned by the OP:

source: Bitcoin Investors and Speculators Hold Their Positions over the Summer. The article date back to September 2018, but should still remain rather much valid.

The relevant part is the estimate of the stat is that Lost and Unmined add up to 36% of all BTCs. If the above categorization is anywhere near being true (the above referenced article depicts their methodology of chain-analysis clustering if anyone wants to go in further), then we should have:

That is, over 4 million “lost” (or really unmoved for a long time) BTC – 20,47% of the potential max. of 21 million BTC (yet to be reached). That acts as a virtual "burn of BTC", which should have contributed to it’s price, on the expectancy of less available supply (lest some should rise from the dead and kick us in the ass by means of a large dump of lost BTCs at some point).

[amrulshare]

isn't it better to reduce the supply of bitcoin, so that if consumer demand for bitcoin rises then the price will experience an extraordinary increase and moreover the total supply is only limited to 21 million.

[BrewMaster]

They are not lost, the problem is that they can't be accessed, and on that way we can have maybe some higher value for bitcoins who are on exchanges and this is it, some of this bitcoin was bought on exchanges and after maybe they lost the keys or hardware where the wallet was.

This is exactly what I said "I understand all lost BTC are in blockchain, they are not "lost", but people probably forgot them or lost the private keys to access"

people define "lost coins" in different ways, some of which are even weird in my opinion like what DdmrDdmr quoted above about "coins that are not moved"!!!

the only coins that are truly lost are those that are provably unspendable. these coins include
* coins sent to burn addresses like 1BitcoinEaterAddressDontSend459kuE
* coins sent to unspendable output scripts such as OP_RETURN
* newly generated coins that are not claimed by the miners (ie. a block reward that is not claimed in coinbase or claimed smaller than it should be).
(there may be more but i can't think of them right now).

anything else is speculation including coins that people lose private key to.

[rdluffy]

This stat shows what some source has estimated BTC distribution in terms of liquidity, which gives us an insight to the question mentioned by the OP:

source: Bitcoin Investors and Speculators Hold Their Positions over the Summer. The article date back to September 2018, but should still remain rather much valid.

The relevant part is the estimate of the stat is that Lost and Unmined add up to 36% of all BTCs. If the above categorization is anywhere near being true (the above referenced article depicts their methodology of chain-analysis clustering if anyone wants to go in further), then we should have:

That is, over 4 million “lost” (or really unmoved for a long time) BTC – 20,47% of the potential max. of 21 million BTC (yet to be reached). That acts as a virtual "burn of BTC", which should have contributed to it’s price, on the expectancy of less available supply (lest some should rise from the dead and kick us in the ass by means of a large dump of lost BTCs at some point).

Thanks for good post
For me, it's a huge number of "lost" BTC, I expect less BTC lost
I think, and it's not based on research, that the most people who lost access to BTC are the ones who gained or mined in the very beginning

I know some friends who mined for a couple of days, or gained BTC in some random sites and they stoped, deleted the wallets and their private keys because they didn't believe BTC is going to worth so much

[MakeMoneyBtc]

There are still a lot of bitcoins to be mined and as long as bitcoin mining will be available people are not going to care that much about the lost bitcoins. So far I've never seen any serious discussion regarding this matter and I've noticed pretty much no one cares about it right now. As for the future I don't see anything that could be wrong if we have a lower supply. Bitcoin is growing,more people are going to want to buy and the lower the supply will be the higher it's value will go.

[seoincorporation]

Satoshi Nakamoto already answers this question some years ago, and i would like to quote him.

“Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.”

So, lost coins is a good thing only if they were not your coins 

[NeuroticFish]

For most "lost" Bitcoins nobody knows they are indeed inaccessible or not. Bitcoins not moved in the last 5-8 years are not necessarily lost (some may be hardcore HODLers).
And maybe some day some super lucky Bitcoiner gets access to such an address from pure luck. I know how small are the chances though 
Until then, as said: they contribute to the scarcity i.e. to higher price.

[betty11]

I don't know how technology is going to improve in the future, a friend has 3BTC on his wallet and it's on watch only mode., I don't know how he got to be in such state. Another of my friend who earlier participated in a ponzi scheme before knowing that btc was not to be use for HYIP or PONZI has 0.7BTC in his wallet and can't even remember the email he used in opening the account. I hope technology give an option of clue in the future.

[DdmrDdmr]

<...>

This is the part where "being your own bank" on BTC needs to be read alongside a fine print which should state "you are responsible for the security of the assets you are banking". Managing your BTC (or other cryptos) is not yet as easy as it should be, and there are is no fall-back third-party safety net when you home bank your crypto assets. The only safety net available is the one you setup (wallet type, seed backup, precaution and wariness of links/sites you come across, non-gullability, and so forth).

The watch only mode wallet should be accessible for it’s owner for TXs if he preserves the private keys. I’m not sure whether the email case you indicate is tied to an exchange. In any case, support may offer an alternative (often cumbersome) means to regain control of the account.

[XinXan]

Those are already priced in, I'm fairly sure, the only thing that truly can and will affect the market long term is the halving and future ones, of course lost bitcoins should affect it too but we don't really know how many lost bitcoins are there and we can never be sure, even satoshi's coins could be resurrected by himself or even someone else so they are never really truly lost.

[Indamuck]

Estimates for lost bitcoin is in the millions but it is impossible to get an exact amount.  Just because coins haven't moved in 5+ years doesn't mean they are lost either , they are just really strong holders.

[cabron]

Lost and forgotten privatekeys are considered lost in the sea. Unless they found a way to bruteforce those wallet to  open. But that would mean  Satoshi's wallet may also be  unsafe. So before anyone else wallet is forcibly accessed, I guess the price of BTC will take a nosedive down to $1.

Whether the dev team will discuss abut it, i think its going to be make wallets more secure.

[MakeMoneyBtc]

Estimates for lost bitcoin is in the millions but it is impossible to get an exact amount.  Just because coins haven't moved in 5+ years doesn't mean they are lost either , they are just really strong holders.

It's very unlikely for someone to keep their coins in the same place for 5+ years without doing absolutely any move. Even if you don't sell your Bitcoin throughout all this time you do make some transactions,maybe you change your hardware wallet to a safer one because technology evolves in 5 years and then you have to move the coins. Anyway,I don't think the estimated number of lost bitcoin is very correct because there's just no way you can know for sure if a bitcoin is lost or not. You cant just go by predictions.

[squatter]

I'm trying to figure what's the effect of all lost coins in a longterm

I understand all lost BTC are in blockchain, they are not "lost", but people probably forgot them or lost the private keys to access
People only says it's good because of the scarcity, our "active" BTC will value more

It's effectively burning bitcoins and removing them from the supply. Assuming demand remains equal, less supply means higher prices.

That is, until and unless quantum computers begin threatening Bitcoin's signature algorithm in the next decade or two. Once that happens, any lost bitcoins held on exposed public keys (like most of the Satoshi coins) or reused addresses are at risk of being stolen and recirculated into the supply.

But all energy and efforts to generate these BTC are for nothing to?
Is there any word of the devs about this?
Do you think someday devs will discuss about?

Ideas have been floated before, such as forks where the Satoshi coins are recirculated. They've never gained much traction, though, and I doubt we'll ever see that happen in Bitcoin.