Actually I'm in a confusion with the fact that Bitcoin's value will be reduced or increased. Bitcoin was worth 8500 USD a few days ago, which has now fallen to a low of 7800 USD. But many are hopeful that this will increase the price of Bitcoin at the end of June. What's your opinion?
opinion is simple
mining cost
if its cheaper to mine then buy. people will mine it and sell at a small margin profit (as seen in octobers drop in mining cost which resulted in novembers price drop)
if its cheaper to buy than mine it. people will buy it and this makes the price go up.
imagine it like if gold could be mined using a wooden kitchen spoon and a coffee filter in your own back yard for $1 an ounce. gold would not be $1k+ an ounce as everyone would bejust mining their own and selling for profit, making the price drop.
now when mining costs were down at $3500 and markets were $3600. we had weeks of oppertunity for anyone profiting below this to sell off. which eventually died off, leaving only buyers.
as the hashrate rose mining costs rise. so mining costs and market buyers gradually went up.
right now though. we are at a period of mining costs being ~$5k bottomline and market price being high $7k
thats $2-3k of whats known as speculation/hype/fomo/bubble/'utility' value pricing
so as long as mining costs remain where they are you wont see mass panic of a $1 bitcoin. you will just see price swings above $5k
last year spring-summer 2018 before next gen asics hit the network(october) mining costs were ~$5800 and the market was $6k-$20k and tested the $5800 bottom a few times but didnt dip below.
this bottomline cost based on mining and eventual depletion of profiteers selling above their acquisition costs is what makes bitcoins PoW mining better than other coins PoS. because things like PoS have no underlying cost/risk of loss. so PoS coins could asily sell down to pennies without notice. but PoW coins will have the mining costs as a bottomline support
all you need to know/worry about is the most cheapest way to mine a coin the economy can provide and watch that number. if the hashrate goes down expect the bottomline value support to go down. if it goes up expect the bottomline suppert to go up
then when you look at the market price which is above this. you can work out how much hype is added ontop.
if again say bottomline support was $5800 but the market was $20k. expect a big impending correction
if again say bottomline support was $5800 but the market was $6k. expect a chance of market rise
if again say bottomline support went to $5500 but the market was higher expect a chance of market dip but not a crash
if again say bottomline support went to $3500 but the market was higher expect a chance of market crash
in short. dont just see the market price as a point of high.. also look at the low and range between them. use things like mining costs to find the possible low to then judge the hype of the highs
