To be fair, predicting the trend of the current cycle and how long it will last is basically like astrology: pseudoscience using established patterns that people follow for guidance. Because of this collective approval of certain patterns in the market, most traders have the notion that x will happen because pattern x1 appeared, hence certain market movements are spotted for a period of time when a pattern is seen. TA for me is applicable for traditional markets as it already established its effects on that area, but for cryptocurrency? I don't think so.
Well technical analysis is not exactly that. Real analysts don't think or say, hey X will happen because this X pattern just formed. It's all about percentages, what's likely and what's not, you can never be 100% correct and you don't need to. For instance, when a pattern shows a likely bull break, traders wont simply jump into it like it's going to happen with an 100% certainty, they might wait for further indicators or they might simply buy and set a very safe stop loss. The more patterns and indicators show the same thing, the more likely it is to happen and traders will throw more money into those, it's always about the risk:reward ratio, some traders are fine with losing 3-4 trades while only being right on 1 because when they are right, they make 10% and when they are wrong, they only lose 1%.
