timing the market

[deisik]

Everything you mention, asics, mt gox, futures, icos, is all just blah blah blah coincidental bullshit events people use to try to understand what is a naturally occuring event that was purposefully built into bitcoin

That's a rather bold statement

Especially the part about Mt Gox. It seems like it is you who needs a strong reality check here. Really, if the 2013 and 2017 surges were mostly due to halvings (as you claim), you will have a difficult question to answer, a difficult problem to solve. That is, if it really were thanks to halvings, how come that the price crashed 5 times in 2014 from the 2013 highs and over 6 times in 2018 after the 2017 peak? Did halvings get canceled or what?

[BrewMaster]

Both 2013 and 2017 spikes were 100% due to halvings.

in other words you are saying everything else was completely meaningless and noise. all the adoption, all the countries regulating  bitcoin with a friendly attitude, removing taxes on bitcoin payments and making them legal, media like for instance Goldman Sachs advertising bitcoin every week in 2017 and hundreds of others were nothing! price only went up because block reward halved.

by that logic any shitcoin out there should also go up to the same price levels as bitcoin since 90% of them are copies of bitcoin.

[WinslowIII]

Both 2013 and 2017 spikes were 100% due to halvings.

in other words you are saying everything else was completely meaningless and noise. all the adoption, all the countries regulating  bitcoin with a friendly attitude, removing taxes on bitcoin payments and making them legal, media like for instance Goldman Sachs advertising bitcoin every week in 2017 and hundreds of others were nothing! price only went up because block reward halved.

by that logic any shitcoin out there should also go up to the same price levels as bitcoin since 90% of them are copies of bitcoin.

It's either meaningless noise, or it was timed to take advantage of the year following the halving like the icos, but yeah - the price would have done this with or without all of these events. That's what I'm saying.
And pretty much every significant coin also spiked during the last 2 halving spikes as well.

[omonuyak]

how to time the market?

As markets move through the stages of the price cycle, moving from downtrends into sideways accumulation, and from sideways accumulation into uptrends, eventually cycling into sideways distribution and finally new downtrend, there is always some genius who thinks that the bottom is in or the high has been made.

Occasionally they are right, but even then, they get out too early and rarely exploit the true potential of their position, typically exiting without any understanding of return on risk.

As Bitcoin continues its accent, the bullish articles continue unabated with one article (in a respected high circulation publication) claiming the cause of the rally was Bitcoin’s RSI, relative strength indicator, reading.

I used to try to use TA with crypto but generally speaking it's mostly useless from what I've seen.  50% of the people that use it are right, 50% wrong (generally speaking).  Buy, hold, and enjoy life much better than trying to time markets.  If you lose out on 10-20% than so be it, you can lose a lot more by being wrong using TA.

But gaining bitcoin through trading seems like such a better option - until they realize that it's more likely they will lose it instead.
I get it, it's hard to throw money at a gamble - the trick is to stop looking at bitcoin as a gamble and look at it as a solid investment.

Trading is less risky than gambling and I think many people in this field of cryptocurrency will agree with me on this. Whoever said gambling is better should try and test the two as I have done and come out with the results. Developing your knowledge on how to trade professionally should be what we should expired for as a cryptocurrency enthusiast.

[1Referee]

The trick is to not attempt to time the market.

When I consider the price to be low enough I start dollar cost averaging on the way down after every 10-20% decrease. If you keep buying you'll eventually buy the bottom or very close to it. My lowest entry point so far is $3300 which is pretty damn close to what right now looks like the bottom. If the price would have fallen below $3000 I would just continue buying, no difference there.

Last year I started a bit too early dollar cost averaging between $6000-$7000 but this year even these relatively higher entry points have turned into paper gains.

[WinslowIII]

how to time the market?

As markets move through the stages of the price cycle, moving from downtrends into sideways accumulation, and from sideways accumulation into uptrends, eventually cycling into sideways distribution and finally new downtrend, there is always some genius who thinks that the bottom is in or the high has been made.

Occasionally they are right, but even then, they get out too early and rarely exploit the true potential of their position, typically exiting without any understanding of return on risk.

As Bitcoin continues its accent, the bullish articles continue unabated with one article (in a respected high circulation publication) claiming the cause of the rally was Bitcoin’s RSI, relative strength indicator, reading.

I used to try to use TA with crypto but generally speaking it's mostly useless from what I've seen.  50% of the people that use it are right, 50% wrong (generally speaking).  Buy, hold, and enjoy life much better than trying to time markets.  If you lose out on 10-20% than so be it, you can lose a lot more by being wrong using TA.

But gaining bitcoin through trading seems like such a better option - until they realize that it's more likely they will lose it instead.
I get it, it's hard to throw money at a gamble - the trick is to stop looking at bitcoin as a gamble and look at it as a solid investment.

Trading is less risky than gambling and I think many people in this field of cryptocurrency will agree with me on this. Whoever said gambling is better should try and test the two as I have done and come out with the results. Developing your knowledge on how to trade professionally should be what we should expired for as a cryptocurrency enthusiast.

Short term trading isn't less or more risky than gambling, its the same thing.

[deisik]

Trading is less risky than gambling and I think many people in this field of cryptocurrency will agree with me on this. Whoever said gambling is better should try and test the two as I have done and come out with the results. Developing your knowledge on how to trade professionally should be what we should expired for as a cryptocurrency enthusiast.

Short term trading isn't less or more risky than gambling, its the same thing

Selection bias, anyone?

Or rather the Dunning–Kruger effect in action? If you can't earn money via short-term trading or just come to think that no one can (other than by pure luck as in gambling), that doesn't make the whole assertion necessarily true. Or is it more like "If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts"? Not that I particularly care, I'm more interested in finding out how far people are willing to go down the rabbit hole

[wheelz1200]

how to time the market?

As markets move through the stages of the price cycle, moving from downtrends into sideways accumulation, and from sideways accumulation into uptrends, eventually cycling into sideways distribution and finally new downtrend, there is always some genius who thinks that the bottom is in or the high has been made.

Occasionally they are right, but even then, they get out too early and rarely exploit the true potential of their position, typically exiting without any understanding of return on risk.

As Bitcoin continues its accent, the bullish articles continue unabated with one article (in a respected high circulation publication) claiming the cause of the rally was Bitcoin’s RSI, relative strength indicator, reading.

I used to try to use TA with crypto but generally speaking it's mostly useless from what I've seen.  50% of the people that use it are right, 50% wrong (generally speaking).  Buy, hold, and enjoy life much better than trying to time markets.  If you lose out on 10-20% than so be it, you can lose a lot more by being wrong using TA.

But gaining bitcoin through trading seems like such a better option - until they realize that it's more likely they will lose it instead.
I get it, it's hard to throw money at a gamble - the trick is to stop looking at bitcoin as a gamble and look at it as a solid investment.

Trading is less risky than gambling and I think many people in this field of cryptocurrency will agree with me on this. Whoever said gambling is better should try and test the two as I have done and come out with the results. Developing your knowledge on how to trade professionally should be what we should expired for as a cryptocurrency enthusiast.

Short term trading is gambling nothing more nothing less.  There isn't an argument that can be had to say short term trading isn't gambling.  Do people make money, yes.  Do people lose money, yes.  Just like at gambling.  The longer you gamble and short term trade the higher probability you will lose money.

[creeps]

This is all in an unpredictable movement, You can not time the market movement with a long term analysis but you can always do a short term one and most traders are just using a short term one to make some earnings with it, But if you are talking about the trends and the bottom rally many speculators are looking back at the previous movement Bitcoin have, And that is how they can tell of how the market will move, But many are relying also on news because there is a chance that the movement will sure follow the news if it is a positive or a negative one.

Timing the market is very hard even if you use many indicators because its really unpredictable. Listening to the news can be more effective because in the past years bitcoin always move accordingly if there’s a negative or positive news. If you do make analysis, you will know when to enter but it doesn’t mean thay you enter at the right time there’s still a chance for a dump or pump so better to be contented of what you have already. 

[Hypnosis00]

This is all in an unpredictable movement, You can not time the market movement with a long term analysis but you can always do a short term one and most traders are just using a short term one to make some earnings with it, But if you are talking about the trends and the bottom rally many speculators are looking back at the previous movement Bitcoin have, And that is how they can tell of how the market will move, But many are relying also on news because there is a chance that the movement will sure follow the news if it is a positive or a negative one.

Timing the market is very hard even if you use many indicators because its really unpredictable. Listening to the news can be more effective because in the past years bitcoin always move accordingly if there’s a negative or positive news. If you do make analysis, you will know when to enter but it doesn’t mean thay you enter at the right time there’s still a chance for a dump or pump so better to be contented of what you have already. 

As stated a lot of times and as the features itself explain everything that can't be predicted.
If that person knows what will happen next, will probably is the person who controlled the market. But we are a decentralize one and everything went in accordance to the market demand. All TA's seems not usable cause it is still in prediction and can't be near into actual event.

[exstasie]

Short term trading isn't less or more risky than gambling, its the same thing.

I wouldn't say that. The signal-to-noise ratio is worse at lower time frames but not impossible to overcome. I've successfully employed scalping strategies in the past but in general it's too involved and stressful, and my win rate is much worse than with swing trading. You really have to "grind it out" with day trading, putting in lots and lots of trades.

Bubbles are the time when leverage day trading BTC really pays off. Under those conditions you can just keep rebuying oversold conditions on the 1min-5min charts over and over all day. Every once in a while a flash crash will crush your position but overall longing BTC in 2017 was like taking candy from a baby.

[pushups44]

how to time the market?

As markets move through the stages of the price cycle, moving from downtrends into sideways accumulation, and from sideways accumulation into uptrends, eventually cycling into sideways distribution and finally new downtrend, there is always some genius who thinks that the bottom is in or the high has been made.

Occasionally they are right, but even then, they get out too early and rarely exploit the true potential of their position, typically exiting without any understanding of return on risk.

As Bitcoin continues its accent, the bullish articles continue unabated with one article (in a respected high circulation publication) claiming the cause of the rally was Bitcoin’s RSI, relative strength indicator, reading.

I prefer the tried and true method of buying and holding, especially when prices are depressed. I think basic technical analysis indicators - such as support and resistance levels, moving averages, and chart patterns - provide short-term insights, but it's worth noting how wrong technical analysts have generally been about bitcoin. Technical analysis works with a healthy dose of acknowledgement about its limitations.

[LimLims]

Yeah,  i can say that timing is the most important thing.
A trader and Bitcoin investor should know when to trade and what's the right time to do it.
I have seen many newbies, just wait when the price will fall down, so that they will buy the coin.
But according to me, they make the mistakes by doing it so.
We need be smart enough to know when to invest.
So better before investing in the coin, look at it's growth graph.
This will be the perfect timing.

[deisik]

Short term trading is gambling nothing more nothing less.  There isn't an argument that can be had to say short term trading isn't gambling.  Do people make money, yes.  Do people lose money, yes.  Just like at gambling.  The longer you gamble and short term trade the higher probability you will lose money

And that's the whole problem

People think something is impossible because, well, they think it is impossible. But whether it is actually impossible still remains an open question. Technically, this logical fallacy is called a hasty generalization (or blanket statement). As an illustrative example, if I can't speak Swahili, does it mean that no one can? In this case, the falseness of possible generalization (that no one can speak Swahili because I can't) is pretty obvious but this variety of fallacy is more widespread than most people think and this is not a false generalization in itself

[figmentofmyass]

Both 2013 and 2017 spikes were 100% due to halvings. Most coins for sale are newly mined, which is why halving this supply has such a dramatic impact.

you have any data to back that up? especially since the OTC market is so opaque?

i'm sure the halvings have an effect in a general sense---they slow the inflation rate. but tying it price events by time? that's a long shot. we're better off just saying bitcoin is long term bullish, partly due to its supply dynamics. bitcoin's fundamentals have been drastically changing over its 10 years of existence---more is going on than inflation slowing. the bubbles are just as much about massive pent-up demand as they are about dwindling supply.

[ethereumhunter]

If we know how to time the market, we will make a big profit and will always make a profit. But unfortunately, we don't know how to do that, and we could only make a place an order base on our prediction and analysis. The only thing we can do is only prepare for what will happen in the next moment and for people who can have the right prediction, they will make a profit.

[Batalo]

If we know how to time the market, we will make a big profit and will always make a profit. But unfortunately, we don't know how to do that, and we could only make a place an order base on our prediction and analysis. The only thing we can do is only prepare for what will happen in the next moment and for people who can have the right prediction, they will make a profit.

I doubt it would be that easy to time the market. Especially oif your are a trader. We all go with speculations and sometimes go blindly with our investments. For me what is best is to know what is a legit coin or not.

[wheelz1200]

Short term trading is gambling nothing more nothing less.  There isn't an argument that can be had to say short term trading isn't gambling.  Do people make money, yes.  Do people lose money, yes.  Just like at gambling.  The longer you gamble and short term trade the higher probability you will lose money

And that's the whole problem

People think something is impossible because, well, they think it is impossible. But whether it is actually impossible still remains an open question. Technically, this logical fallacy is called a hasty generalization (or blanket statement). As an illustrative example, if I can't speak Swahili, does it mean that no one can? In this case, the falseness of possible generalization (that no one can speak Swahili because I can't) is pretty obvious but this variety of fallacy is more widespread than most people think and this is not a false generalization in itself

I get your point although your example doesn't fit.  Trading crypto is not a science, one can learn a language with enough practice and time.  With crypto there is NO way possible to know what other buyers and sellers will do in a given period, therefore it is by chance if you make or lose money, i.e. gambling.

[deisik]

One can learn a language with enough practice and time

That's why such an assumption (that no one can learn Swahili) is a logical fallacy (a premature or hasty generalization)

With crypto there is NO way possible to know what other buyers and sellers will do in a given period, therefore it is by chance if you make or lose money, i.e. gambling

Then your entire idea simply doesn't make sense

As in this case all trading is essentially gambling. Anyway, to earn dough via trading, you don't have to know what other traders (buyers as well as sellers) are going to do. And then we are basically back to square one, i.e. you think that it is impossible to earn via short-term trading (other than by luck) because you don't see a way (or rather ways) of doing that for the reasons stated. But these reasons, your reasons, are not "all-inclusive", so speak. They would probably be if the markets were perfect (and instant across the board, just in case) but they are not, and far from that, so ways of consistently trading profitably with the short term in mind are definitely possible

[Reid]

Can you blame them?
Not all will try to Hodl for a long time.
Some needs profits in just a manner of time with a thought that it will be for their food the whole day and some for their bills.

I understand who does that for employment is getting difficult for a lot of countries.
Just maybe, this is like their daily routine although there will also be losses if done wrong.
Just like you said, the right timing is needed.