Why was this recent downturn not surprising?

[cocoadreamboy]

I just published a whole research paper for my clients yesterday predicting a drop based on the cash flow and the recent hash rate drop .

I protect my clients, so I will not disclose any information that they paid for. But I will say that it came from understanding the basic fundamentals of how bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies work. Cash flow monitoring is how any modern company is valued. I provide that for my clients using hard data.

I plan on telling them my expected exit price, but only after I factor in the degree of hash rate drops correlated with the efficiency of previous bitcoin mining machines. I will do this in order to find the optimal profit exit point for the miners (whales). I do the work.

If you are able to do this, good luck to you! But I do the work for my clients, and if you want someone working hard for you are welcome to join my crypto family and get the following:

1. Risk analysis for BTC , BCH, ETH, and LTC.
2. Coin creation costs for BTC , BCH, ETH, and LTC.
3. Advanced data based research covering how the fundamental price floor affects the spot price Feb 7 Analysis
4. Actively managed portfolio where you see my daily trades and risk percentages. I am currently 2.11% up from June 2 off of LTC and BTC actions.
5. Weekly summary of fundamental actions and analysis.
6. Continuous updates and improvements that center on what YOU need to understand how crypto actually works.
7. Access to me for council and coaching on your strategy.

If you want to keep following people that draw lines from random points and feed you nonsense like Fibonacci numbers be my guest, enjoy swimming with the fish. Any moron can draw a line between point A and point B and make it fit any agenda. Enjoy being told what just happened and being led into traps by unknowledgeable people making false correlations.

If you want to watch what the whales are doing I am here to help. This is just the beginning of the fall.

Please look at my open analysis and work, it is worth your time:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis
https://www.amsinger.org/price-floor-in-action

I hope you see the true value of this.

Aaron

P.S. If you don't follow this enjoy buying the highs and selling the lows. It makes me sick how people are saying bitcoin is going to $100k. They care nothing for your safety and risk exposure. They only care about FOMO and hype.

[realsteelboy]

Downturn?

You mean the small dip we’re currently experiencing. Even a drop to 8k from here would be normal Bitcoin behaviour.

[figmentofmyass]

I just published a whole research paper for my clients yesterday predicting a drop based on the cash flow and the recent hash rate drop .

I protect my clients, so I will not disclose any information that they paid for. But I will say that it came from understanding the basic fundamentals of how bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies work. Cash flow monitoring is how any modern company is valued. I provide that for my clients using hard data.

I plan on telling them my expected exit price, but only after I factor in the degree of hash rate drops correlated with the efficiency of previous bitcoin mining machines. I will do this in order to find the optimal profit exit point for the miners (whales). I do the work.

sigh.....another noob who thinks future price can be extrapolated from hash rate and miner costs. your premise defies logic and the entire design of the system. hash rate follows price, not the other way around. nobody gives a shit what miners pay, and miners represent a smaller and smaller share of total supply everyday.

If you want to keep following people that draw lines from random points and feed you nonsense like Fibonacci numbers be my guest, enjoy swimming with the fish. Any moron can draw a line between point A and point B and make it fit any agenda. Enjoy being told what just happened and being led into traps by unknowledgeable people making false correlations.

If you want to watch what the whales are doing I am here to help. This is just the beginning of the fall.

at least we can judge TA on its face. you have zero evidence for what you're promising. don't be surprised if no one takes you seriously here. old timers know that you're selling snake oil.

i look forward to revisiting this thread in a few weeks.

Downturn?

You mean the small dip we’re currently experiencing. Even a drop to 8k from here would be normal Bitcoin behaviour.

seriously. price dipped 5%. it already retraced 50% in the last few hours. he's acting like the price was just cut in half.

[buwaytress]

I'm not sure your clients would feel the same confidence in your abilities or experience if they read that post and knew who you were.

And what downturn are we talking about? A day after hitting a new high and we're still above 9k.

What's that again they say about a little knowledge? We're all somewhat knowledgeable but in the speculatory price market, your guess is as good or as bad as mine.

[omonuyak]

Downturn?

You mean the small dip we’re currently experiencing. Even a drop to 8k from here would be normal Bitcoin behaviour.

I did not really know what he is saying in the op about downturn and he presented it as if something that has happened before. Bitcoin has not lose much that we can call corrections! talk more of the down turn. I believe that traders are the one influencing the market currently and not miners. Bitcoin is growing general and I don’t see any downturn in view except you are referring to the future.

[YuginKadoya]

The movement is pretty normal that is why it is very volatile to simply make an assumption base on previous movements Because there are no extreme change with the price, This is just a normal Dip anything is possible with bitcoin there is no big drama what so ever, And it is not yet surprising indeed, This Bull Run will continue and rocking like the waves of the ocean.

[bitserve]

What downturn? And why would a downturn/correction be surprising even if it happened now after all this months of rising? The title doesn't make any sense.

[El duderino_]

He's just in BTC recently, thats the only explanation for this topic

We all have our starting date.....

[Wind_FURY]

Everyone is an "expert" during a bull run. Plus be careful, these "fund managers" might actually be scammers. I'm not saying that the OP is one, I'm saying newbies beware. Some "experts" want to separate you from your Bitcoins.

[klaaas]

If you have to protect fiat values vs time spans any downwards dip would cause caution and accounted a bit higher in the risk factor.

Looking at the btc hash rates it all went up on the 30 90 and 180 days overview.

[Barbut]

After a couple of years in cryptocurrencies uptrends and downtrends stop to be a surprise, it just a natural thing, something that happens wheater we like it or not. To longterm holders, these up and down trends are not so important, for short and mid-term traders this is the way for earning money.
I hold my bitcoins! I trade with altcoins, nothing can surprise me. Price can skyrocket or drop by 80% in days, so when you day trade don`t do that will all your money and you will be safe.

[Lucius]

I protect my clients, so I will not disclose any information that they paid for.

So this is actually promotion of your paid service, and I would have no objection to that if this is posted in proper board. If you sell / offer something we have Marketplace for that.

I am currently 2.11% up from June 2 off of LTC and BTC actions.

I invest some money at $3000 few months ago, just by using my brain - can you calculate how much up is that?

It makes me sick how people are saying bitcoin is going to $100k. They care nothing for your safety and risk exposure. They only care about FOMO and hype.

Take some medicine if you feel sick, some people say it will go up to $1 million next year - that does not mean that we should believe them. I believe in healthy logic and some people who make long-term predictions (2-4 years), and have proven themselves as credible for crypto community.

[cocoadreamboy]

A lot of negative reactions for bringing up cash flow analysis in crypto. I am not surprised, but it is always amazing.

Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, but at least my views are backed by data and actual analysis, not feelings and emotions. 

Thank you!

Aaron

[thecodebear]

A lot of negative reactions for bringing up cash flow analysis in crypto. I am not surprised, but it is always amazing.

Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, but at least my views are backed by data and actual analysis, not feelings and emotions. 

Thank you!

Aaron

Most people are just pointing out "what downturn?" And they are correct.

After reaching a new 2019 high in the 9400s it has consolidated at around 9000 - 9100. Not exactly a downturn, ok not even close to a downturn. Just a normal pullback that, most weeks out of the year you could predict that happening and be right. A downturn would be if it fell to 8000, not dropping a few percent. This isn't the stock market, dropping a few percent is just weekly volatility, sometimes even daily volatility.

[Jating]

I also don't see any downturn, the price is still above $9k as of this writing, unless I'm looking at a different chart as the OP.

I'm not expert in hash rate or what's not, but it seems we are making things complicated here. I mean let the market do the talking and not some data or interpolation and thinks that we can predict where the price will be going in the future.

[dothebeats]

It's not really surprising considering that we have been in the greens for a long time. Any drop in the price will be a normal market reaction and should be expected given the range of the rise we have had for the last couple of months. Sans the promotion of your service and the factors you have mentioned, a correction is a necessary thing to occur before any substantial gains can be seen. Heck, even back to $7000 or $6000 is still bearable for us to handle right now.

[exstasie]

A lot of negative reactions for bringing up cash flow analysis in crypto. I am not surprised, but it is always amazing.

Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, but at least my views are backed by data and actual analysis, not feelings and emotions. 

You haven't explained how your "cash flow analysis" works so people are rightfully skeptical. You're basically just touting your paid subscription without providing any evidence you know what you're talking about or that your signals perform well.

Meanwhile, price has only fallen 1.5% despite your proclamations of a major crash incoming. So again, people are rightfully skeptical.

[FanEagle]

What recent downturn? I do not understand, bitcoin literally went from 3.2k to 9.1k+ right now and you are talking about bitcoin recent downturn. If you mean from 20k to 3k then you might be right but even that is now just a 50% drop and if you were smart enough to buy while going down you must have a lot less dollar cost average than just 20k, you can have bought under 4k and that would have dropped your average down a lot or you could have bought anywhere under 9k and your averages would have been lower.

All you have to do right now is take a look at the limits of bitcoin and where it can reach to understand that there is no reason to consider any drop as downturn since it would recover in no time if you use your money wisely to drop the averages down to a lower number.

[Herbert2020]

He's just in BTC recently, thats the only explanation for this topic

We all have our starting date.....

actually this topic has one purpose and that is starter trying to sell his services which are kind of a signal selling service, seemingly analyzing the market but in reality he is just making random stuff up and sells it to whomever is foolish enough to pay him for it

[exstasie]

I just published a whole research paper for my clients yesterday predicting a drop based on the cash flow and the recent hash rate drop.

I protect my clients, so I will not disclose any information that they paid for. But I will say that it came from understanding the basic fundamentals of how bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies work. Cash flow monitoring is how any modern company is valued. I provide that for my clients using hard data.

Since you posted this, price has only risen. We just hit $9,800. Have you reassessed and changed your position, or are you doubling down and predicting more downside?

What went wrong with your "cash flow monitoring" and why didn't it see this move coming?