With Bitcoin 33% higher, did technical analysis cause the move?

[beaxchange]

The tendency for the worst news to coincide with the end of a down move and the best news to coincide with the end of an up move has, like the slope of hope and the wall of worry, been turned into a handy aphorism.

It shows up in the stock market, the forex market, the bond market, in fact, all liquid financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, exhibit this behaviour - even real estate.

https://www.altcoinsidekick.com/copy-of-podcast3

[mk4]

Re: With Bitcoin 33% higher, did technical analysis cause the move?

What does that question even mean? Technical analysis is something that's used to evaluate and analyze the markets to potentially make better trades. How can something that's not even an event/incident nor an entity cause a price movement?

[slaman29]

When did technical analysis ever cause any moves, whether down or up? Technicals may have moved it (and TA guys always say of course, nothing else) but with Bitcoin, maybe also some whales just wanted to buy a lot of BTC for himself before it hit 10k. That's really how it works isn't it, according to all the critics anyway!

[pushups44]

The bitcoin market is moving according to fundamental factors: the increased institutional buying of it, the foray of Facebook into the crypto space, the upcoming halving, and continuous development. The prices are affected by technical patterns only in the short run. For example, round numbers such as $8,000, $9,000, and $10,000 tend to be psychologically important.

Technical analysis does not "cause" any moves.

[CryptoMobster]

TA tells the past not the future.

Indicators are designed to confuse you.

Fundamentals create the moves based on human emotion reacting to them.

[XCANA]

TA tells the past not the future.
~~~~

Exactly mate, TA aren't meant to determine the future but the past, so, for anyone saying that; TA is responsible for the increased he/she is just another fanatic. The current increased to me was as a result of positive news and institutional buyers around the world of cryptocurrency. Also, we shouldn't forget the Libra.

[BrewMaster]

The tendency for the worst news to coincide with the end of a down move and the best news to coincide with the end of an up move has, like the slope of hope and the wall of worry, been turned into a handy aphorism.

not really. at least not in bitcoin.
from what i have seen, bad news and good news is always coming out. most of the times at an equal rate. for example if we have 2 good news today, we also have 2 bad ones.
the difference however is that people (and the shitty clickbait news sites) are more interested in publishing articles that are in the same direction as the market. for example now that price is rising they sweep bad news under the rug and magnify the good news! why? because it will get the more traffic and that means more money !

[kryptqnick]

Re: With Bitcoin 33% higher, did technical analysis cause the move?

What does that question even mean? Technical analysis is something that's used to evaluate and analyze the markets to potentially make better trades. How can something that's not even an event/incident nor an entity cause a price movement?

I was thinking about the same thing. To be a cause something needs to directly affect the increasing price of Bitcoin, and technical analysis is clearly not doing that. However, I think one can mean some indirect causation here as well. Technical analysis can predict that Bitcoin will rise, people can read the info about this analysis and run to buy some bitcoins because of the FOMO. I don't think this is what happened, though. Honestly, I am not even sure what the op means by Bitcoin being 33% higher, because the current price movements are rather insignificant and unsurprising.

[mazdafunsun]

LIke other members already pointed out , technical analysis is not something that can cause any moves.

I remember that crypto markets were tied to news in China and other regions heavily when we are the top of the bubble but nowadays I dont see this. Stock markets are more relatable to news which are relevant and describes real impact like when federal banks rise loans rates or some company loses / wins some license.

[dothebeats]

TA only points out movements, not necessarily dictate or cause them. There are a lot at play to bitcoin trading than just TA alone, and that's a fact. You constantly have the regulations shaking ground on bitcoin, add to that the FOMO and other things. If this is your traditional stock market, I'll believe that at some point, TA caused something huge. Then again this is bitcoin, and we know that it's a highly unpredictable market that TA cannot foresee.

[exstasie]

What does that question even mean? Technical analysis is something that's used to evaluate and analyze the markets to potentially make better trades. How can something that's not even an event/incident nor an entity cause a price movement?

A lot of people believe TA is a "self fulfilling prophecy." The idea is that traders all see the same thing (like a triangle breakout or a head and shoulders pattern) and follow the chart patterns, and that's what causes price movements.

To me, it's a really silly idea. What's pressuring price IMO is supply/demand imbalance. For example, when an upside breakout occurs, all the trapped sellers buy back, forcing price higher and higher. It's not the triangle or falling wedge pattern that's causing this. There's an important feedback process between price movements themselves and the supply and demand.

[pooya87]

What does that question even mean? Technical analysis is something that's used to evaluate and analyze the markets to potentially make better trades. How can something that's not even an event/incident nor an entity cause a price movement?

A lot of people believe TA is a "self fulfilling prophecy." The idea is that traders all see the same thing (like a triangle breakout or a head and shoulders pattern) and follow the chart patterns, and that's what causes price movements.

actually not all traders see the same thing on the same charts! that is the reason why when you look at speculation sites with lots of technical analysis like tradingview.com you see all kinds of speculation and different lines drawn on the same exact chart by different people!
and that is why many consider TA to be pseudo-science and "self fulfilling prophecy". and that is why it isn't the reason for price change.

[timerland]

Technical analysis itself doesn't move the markets.

It attempts to predict what the underlying movements will be in the future, but it doesn't actually influence how demand and supply is shaped, unless enough people believe in the TA itself at which point it becomes somewhat of a self fulfilling prophecy.

However, this is definitely not the case with this run up.

What we saw was that earlier this year, bitcoin consolidated at its bottom of $3k. Right now, people are recognizing that this is the start of a new bull market and thus, their sentiments are becoming a lot more bullish as a result. One of the new fundamentals factors introduced into the market is also institutional investors, who not only will provide more liquidity into the market, but also inspire more investor confidence which could also be one of the underlying causes of these rallies.

At the end of the day though, this is cyclical, normal behavior and you can see this with any market - it's not caused by any type of analysis, period.

[Kasabus]

And almost all us agreed that TA's never have an involvement that makes prices move.
The market will only move if there is activity around and TA's is only analysis for the possible trend we have in the future. I don't know if people consider TA's as a guide for them when to buy and when to sell. Makes this thing change and the prices. It sometimes we have to consider this also.

[Pursuer]

I for one have always had this idea that whenever enough people speculate something with technical analysis or otherwise then the market shapes based on their speculation. for example you can look at the halving events. each time people expect rises so they start buying with a frenzy and cause the spikes. but that is not something that happens that often.
so when it comes to small movements like this and more importantly when we are already on a certain trend (rising up in this case) the price is on the move whether TA of investors tell them this or not. so you can't call that the "cause of the rise".

[el kaka22]

Everything plays a role, no technical analysis didn't do this all by itself but did it had a play in it? Definitely.

The technically analysis, the bull hype, the wars in china vs Hong Kong, the inflation going around everywhere in the world and many other things plus Chinese miner stuff moving to other places and many many other stuff came together and they have made bitcoin a lot higher recently, so this increase is not just due to technically analysis but we can definitely say that it played a role in it as well.

I would say taking the people who look at charts all day with us during this increase helped us a lot, normally when bitcoin looks like its going down it usually goes down because if people believe it then they won't buy and it won't go up but this time it wasn't like that.

[nydiacaskey01]

I guess what OP is trying to say is for those who speculated that Bitcoin will hit $10,000 or more using technical analysis caused the price of Bitcoin to surge pass $9,000 because of FOMO. New investors are coming in because they get interested with the sudden move upwards of Bitcoin. Imagine from $3,500 last February 2019 to $9,500 today that's 171%

[boyptc]

TA is a based assumption on the market through the pattern that an analyst saw the charts.

The cause of the move simply due to the trend and demand where people bought because of some reasons. It could be due to FB's announcement of Libra or it could be everyone is aware that the bear market has ended, etc.

[arpon11]

Re: With Bitcoin 33% higher, did technical analysis cause the move?

What does that question even mean? Technical analysis is something that's used to evaluate and analyze the markets to potentially make better trades. How can something that's not even an event/incident nor an entity cause a price movement?

Events don't do the trade and it is human being that do the trade and as such we cannot ruleout how technical analysis affect the cryptocurrencies market. Traders especially the professionals, makes use of events (news, fundamental analysis) and technical analysis ( candlestick formations and patterns, Technical indicators such as parabolic Sar, macd, relative strength index, moving average crossing) to make an informed investment decision.. Most of the trading robots are build using technical analysis and those robots trade in the cryptocurrencies, forex and stocks market too. Therefore we have many factors that influence the movement of bitcoin and all those factors are playing significant roles in the market.

[vintages]

Technical analysis has no contributions to the way the market reacts. Though, sometimes it affects a little but most times, what gives a big shift to the price of bitcoin can be a contribution to the way investors reacts to certain Bitcoin events. Its more like a psychology of the mind; as people's behaviour and actions are triggered by events.