Why do you think Trump changed his mind over the strike on Iran?

[Jet Cash]

I don't believe that he ever intended that there would be a strike. The consequences such as higher oil prices, and a rising death toll meant that it was a bad political play. I think he understood this from the beginning, and he used it to test his so-called advisers and aids, and to help discover who was leaking information. He has also used it to help maintain his image as a kind and compassionate man.

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[fatnet]

nope, iran strike is an awful decision, cuz iran also has nukes, the profits of the war against a government which has nukes are much much lower than the costs of this war

[TECSHARE]

I agree this was probably a strategic move, one intended not only to send a message to Iran without actual escalation, as well as what you stated plugging any leaks. It would also have the additional benefit of allowing the US to monitor their reaction and gain valuable information on their defensive tactics.

[theymos]

I think that his many war-hawk neocon advisors basically ordered the airstrike for him, but he realized that it was insane and called it back. From reporting about the inside of the Administration, I get the sense that everyone is just doing whatever they want, often ignoring what Trump says, and Trump himself is a pretty weak force on most issues. I'm glad that he pushed back on this one, but I still see the machine of war moving constantly in the direction of Iran.

[BADecker]

When enough messages are sent like this one, the nations will become lax after a while. Then it will be safer to "strike" them.

[TECSHARE]

I think that his many war-hawk neocon advisors basically ordered the airstrike for him, but he realized that it was insane and called it back. From reporting about the inside of the Administration, I get the sense that everyone is just doing whatever they want, often ignoring what Trump says, and Trump himself is a pretty weak force on most issues. I'm glad that he pushed back on this one, but I still see the machine of war moving constantly in the direction of Iran.

I don't believe they have the authority to do that. That kind of action is the sort of thing that can see you at the far end of a firing squad in the military, and chain of command is not something the military toys with.

[tvbcof]

I'd say that there was a good chance that the whole attack/revoke thing was stated.  But if not, two things seem most possible to me:

 - High credibility info that the drone+poseidon+? had invaded Iranian airspace was threatened to be released.

 - The U.S. was, at the last minute, made aware of Iranian capabilities to retaliate, and willingness to do so, which made the costs to high to be borne without further prep.

Being lied into war is one thing.  We've all seen it before and it didn't collapse the country.  Being lied into a war which resulted in the loss of our Navy, for instance, is quite another.

[TECSHARE]

I'd say that there was a good chance that the whole attack/revoke thing was stated.  But if not, two things seem most possible to me:

 - High credibility info that the drone+poseidon+? had invaded Iranian airspace was threatened to be released.

 - The U.S. was, at the last minute, made aware of Iranian capabilities to retaliate, and willingness to do so, which made the costs to high to be borne without further prep.

Being lied into war is one thing.  We've all seen it before and it didn't collapse the country.  Being lied into a war which resulted in the loss of our Navy, for instance, is quite another

US drones invading another country's air space with a drone is fairly routine, and IMO is not sufficient to cause much international backlash from those not already opposed to the US. Regarding your second point, IMO the only reason they have not already gone in is because they are fully aware of their capabilities to retaliate. As I stated elsewhere, this war would not be like Iraq or Afghanistan, Iran has very capable mobile SAM systems which are well hidden. If some one like me is privy to this information, it is nonsense that the president would also not have this intelligence.

[BADecker]

When you look back on Trump's campaign for the presidency, he was all over the place with ideas. He seemed top contradict himself on campaign issues, and things he had said for the previous 2 or 3 decades. Why would that change now? Expect anything from Trump.

[tvbcof]

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Regarding your second point, IMO the only reason they have not already gone in is because they are fully aware of their capabilities to retaliate. As I stated elsewhere, this war would not be like Iraq or Afghanistan, Iran has very capable mobile SAM systems which are well hidden. If some one like me is privy to this information, it is nonsense that the president would also not have this intelligence.

Sure they would/could get some missiles through.  The question is what would be on top of them.

I doubt that weapons development ceased with thermonuclear weapons and the rather benign chemical weapons which were current in my time (30 years ago.)  The only real question is what has Iran been able to develop on their own, and what has been given to them by their allies to retaliate against against a long threatened attack.

A secondary question would be whether Iran will accept the almost certain destruction of their country via conventional nukes if they dare to retaliate.  Frankly I could see them choosing it given the object lessons of what the Ziocon dominated West does to other countries such as Libya.

To my shock and surprise Iran really doesn't seem that interested in developing nukes.  I always considered it a mistake, but it could be that they have put their efforts into something even more devastating.  Iran has hinted for decades that Israel 'knows' what capabilities they have and for all Israel's talk they have not dared to 'go it alone' yet.

[Quickseller]

The US apparently launched a cyber attack against Iran at approximately the same time the air strikes were set to take place. The cyber strikes attacked some of Iran's radar equipment.

If the US is not 100% certain of the location of air defense assets in Iran are, disabling some of their defense capabilities, and giving the impression an attack is imminent, the US military may have hoped to learn where additional Iran military assets are located, and what type of equipment they have. This could reduce future American casualties if thing escalate further.

I think Trump wants other countries to pay for security in the straight of Hormuz, and perhaps send their own troops and military assets to go to war with Iran (if it comes to that), with the US playing a more minor role than it did in Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

[tvbcof]

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I think Trump wants other countries to pay for security in the straight of Hormuz, and perhaps send their own troops and military assets to go to war with Iran (if it comes to that), with the US playing a more minor role than it did in Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

Trump most likely does whatever his sponsor, Sheldon Adelson, tells him to do by-n-large.  Else he won't be president for much longer due to the dirt (((they))) have on the guy.  The wildcard would be that there would be a lead-time to actually get rid of him.

Anyway, the rest of the EU 'allies' would not have any 'security' problems at all from Iran were it not for the sanctions they've been strong-armed, with some significant resistance, into participating in.  To the extent that they feel security problems, they are more likely to choose to abandon the sanctions vs. risking their own blood and treasure in a war with Iran.  Yes, they face their own internal Ziocon pressures, but hopefully not enough to make them stick their hand into the wood chipper.

[tvbcof]

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But a senior administration official, speaking anonymously, seems to have come closer to the truth when he said the strikes were halted due to “concerns” that the drone, or another US drone, or the navy P-8A, had indeed strayed into Iranian airspace “at some point”.

LOL.  Just as I figured.

My lead: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4fscxEuT1E

[reginalkri]

I don't believe that he ever intended that there would be a strike. The consequences such as higher oil prices, and a rising death toll meant that it was a bad political play. I think he understood this from the beginning, and he used it to test his so-called advisers and aids, and to help discover who was leaking information. He has also used it to help maintain his image as a kind and compassionate man.

Very astute observation. Though I think he honestly is a kind and compassionate man. It's not an image that he's trying to maintain, since tens of millions of people think he is an extremely selfish egomaniac.

[Juggy777]

I don't believe that he ever intended that there would be a strike. The consequences such as higher oil prices, and a rising death toll meant that it was a bad political play. I think he understood this from the beginning, and he used it to test his so-called advisers and aids, and to help discover who was leaking information. He has also used it to help maintain his image as a kind and compassionate man.

@JetCash of course he never intended to strike them he’s a businessman, and knew very well that a strike would hurt America’s interest more than it would hurt Iran. Trump is all about words but never following them with actions when it comes to war, remember North Korea after all words exchanged he didn’t strike them. I don’t believe his claim that civilians would die hence he aborted the mission, maybe you’re right it was ploy to find out who was leaking the data.

[Astargath]

I think that his many war-hawk neocon advisors basically ordered the airstrike for him, but he realized that it was insane and called it back. From reporting about the inside of the Administration, I get the sense that everyone is just doing whatever they want, often ignoring what Trump says, and Trump himself is a pretty weak force on most issues. I'm glad that he pushed back on this one, but I still see the machine of war moving constantly in the direction of Iran.

I honestly think Trump does not want any kind of war with anyone. He tried to be friends with kim jong, with putin, stopped the iran thing too.

[Jet Cash]

The latest moves to impose financial sanctions on Iran, seem to be a continuation of the plan to move the financial systems of the world over to Asia. I guess this is one way to lose the trillions of toxic debt that is awash in Europe and America. It's a shame that the $170 million that the drone cost wasn't used to repair bridges and roads in the US. Now that a drone has been shot down, I think we can expect to see more instances in the future, and the big score will be the sinking of a US aircraft carrier.

All these sanctions seems to create new alliances, and to strengthen the targets - Russia and China are obvious examples. Huawei will be the stronger for the free publicity that is is getting to confirm its technical superiority, and its sanctioning may lead to the demise of Google and Facebook.

[TECSHARE]

The latest moves to impose financial sanctions on Iran, seem to be a continuation of the plan to move the financial systems of the world over to Asia. I guess this is one way to lose the trillions of toxic debt that is awash in Europe and America. It's a shame that the $170 million that the drone cost wasn't used to repair bridges and roads in the US. Now that a drone has been shot down, I think we can expect to see more instances in the future, and the big score will be the sinking of a US aircraft carrier.

All these sanctions seems to create new alliances, and to strengthen the targets - Russia and China are obvious examples. Huawei will be the stronger for the free publicity that is is getting to confirm its technical superiority, and its sanctioning may lead to the demise of Google and Facebook.

I agree with most of this statement, but wanted to make a correction. Huawei's only strength above US technological development is the fact it has access to unlimited slave labor. Nearly all of its supposed developments were stolen from US and European companies, which is a secondary reason for the sanctions, the primary one being that 5G platforms have dual use as total surveillance and weapons systems.

[Imperial_Hash]

I think that his many war-hawk neocon advisors basically ordered the airstrike for him, but he realized that it was insane and called it back. From reporting about the inside of the Administration, I get the sense that everyone is just doing whatever they want, often ignoring what Trump says, and Trump himself is a pretty weak force on most issues. I'm glad that he pushed back on this one, but I still see the machine of war moving constantly in the direction of Iran.

That's also what I see. The destabilization of the middle-east will continue. Saudis and US will profit... Europe has to go in the same direction. Just a matter of time and I pray we have a solid chance this is not happening

[Naida_BR]

I don't believe that he ever intended that there would be a strike. The consequences such as higher oil prices, and a rising death toll meant that it was a bad political play. I think he understood this from the beginning, and he used it to test his so-called advisers and aids, and to help discover who was leaking information. He has also used it to help maintain his image as a kind and compassionate man.

He has already an open war with China.
In my opinion, the US wouldn't endure another strike with Iran. He just made some statements against Iran just for maintaining his political status. Nothing special.