Even though I mention the selling on the way up strategy and buying on the way down strategy, there is quite a bit of "devil in the details," and ultimately I don't really believe that it is a good idea to sell to expect to buy back cheaper. Therefore the amounts that might be permissible to sell on the way up would be relatively small and ONLY as a kind of insurance program (just in case the BTC price goes down, but if it does not go down, then don't expect to buy back, just use the money generated from the sales for funzies).
So, there are some presumptions in my considering even if selling at all is a good idea, and that would relate to having already had reached high accumulation levels and likely to have had overly accumulated, which makes it easier to sell some and it would presume that any coins sold would be in profits and maybe even in many time higher than the basis levels of profits.
For sure, strategies for shitcoins would be much different, and seems kind of dumb to me to sell some BTC and then to fuck around with shitcoins with the proceeds, but yeah, people can do what they want, even if it seems dumb to me.
The overall best practice is to allocate a minimal speculative amount to cash in on the market advantages in the form of selling all the way up and buying all the way down, this amount is quite different from your investment and holdings which should be 70% Bitcoin for long term and 30% for speculations of the bitcoin market and how best you can use the DCA approach to cash in on the gains that the market present time to time, this is the best practice that has helped many to increase their total bitcoin holdings.
The obvious truth is that, considering shitcoin is a total distraction for an investor, who wants to achieve a financially free future because altcoins are made up of tons of shitcoins that only take away from investors and operate Ponzi-like projects that lack the viability to survive the market demands, so best to buy more bitcoin and speculate the market along different market cycle while holding for long term.
Also, there seems to be some evil along this pattern really since the DCA approach needs a lot of market calculation, that is when to buy and when the right time to sell also, this is the major risk basement in the DCA approach, but being able to hold 70% and using only 30% to DCA market speculate it makes you more confident since you are not approaching the entire Bitcoin cycle with just one approach but two which is Hodle and DCA approach.
I don't really have any problems with anything that you mentioned, even though I don't tend to even attempt to be selling that much BTC on the way up, but I can recognize and appreciate how attempting to sell more on the way up would have the potential for greater performance overall - even though if you have not gotten the range of the top of the BTC cycle very well, then you may well have ended up selling all of your 30% allocation.. but sure there can be ways that if the bTC price is continuing to go up, you are still able to continue to sell 30% of the profits and then just pick the increment.. so instead of selling 30% of the principle, you sell 30% of the profits, but then that ends up being a much more conservative sell allocation amount than what you seem to be describing, Ojima-ojo.
An overall problem that comes with any of these kinds of buying on the way down and selling on the way up still remains the attempts to try to figure out ways to pace yourself in such a way that you don't run out of dollars on the way down and you don't run out of BTC (or overly sell too much too soon) on the way up... but either one can be done in stages (incremental spreads) as each of us seem to be on the same page in regards to the idea of having incremental spreads both on the way down and on the way up because no matter what none of us (even the smartest in the world) are really going to be able to predict tops and/or bottoms with any meaningful level of accuracy.
Agree with Jay here, I'm not convinced about the selling on the way up and buying on the way down scheme. I think a lot of the time this leads to break-even rather than profitable, even if can be good for piece of mind. Also generally selling a bull market should only really be done if you're convinced of a drop and otherwise willing to buy back when price has dropped 30-35%, otherwise you risk being left behind.
Understandably selling $20K to $60K in 2021 could well have worked out well for speculators, as long as you're increasing your selling position as price increases, but otherwise remains tricky. I'm sure there are some that sold new ATH territory for say an average of $40K then bought it all back for less at $20K, but those individuals are few and far between. Most notably, this strategy isn't guaranteed to work next cycle, in the same way there are many in 2017 who sold $2K, $4K and $5K, and most likely had to buy back at a higher price or the same, missing a lot of potential gains in the meanwhile. At least that's my impression.
I think the only time to be selling chunks of coin is if you're very confident of a 50%+ drop, which is an opportunity that doesn't come around very often imo. Personally I don't think it was clear in 2021 from $60K to $30K, even if a little more likely in 2022 from around $40K to $20K. Likewise $6.5K to $3.2K in 2018 and 2019 $12K to $6K were reasonable opportunities, while the latter wasn't during a full blown bull market.
Anyway regarding this Bitcoin dominance thread, personally I see the the 47% to $48% as nearby support. The 200 Day MA is at 48% and otherwise it was previous resistance level for two years. I'd estimate it'll be one of the last chances to sell altcoins prior to dominance returning to 60-70% range, if you missed the 40% level that is. We've already seen this year Bitcoin's dominance increase from 40% to 50% during the price increase from around $15K to $30K, so I only really see the dominance continuing to increase from here, somewhat regardless of Bitcoin's price action. But if I had to guess then it's more likely the increase in dominance will continue to correlate with increase in price, given that the local top on price and dominance was in June/July, and price/dominance has corrected to the downside in sync with each other since then.
There's also just too many altcoins that still look like they want to drop another 50% against BTC, so either Bitcoin can increase by 2x to achieve this, or otherwise remain flat for longer and dollar values of altcoins can drop in half. Either way, I don't see altcoin dominance getting stronger anytime soon. 2023 and so far mimicked 2019, so even a considerably correction in Bitcoin's price won't change much imo.
