Calculate how much is Bitcoin?

[moseich]

In January of this year, I managed to predict a bitcoin price of $10,000.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5090403.0
Many readers thought it was a joke!
It is very interesting, as it is now do you feel about my method Bitcoins assessment?
Has your opinion changed?
Is it worth counting the bitcoin market price with my approach at the moment?
https://medium.com/@igormoseich/cost-of-the-bitcoin-a2d5d360a8bf

[cocoadreamboy]

To me, this seems like a lucky guess my friend. It was very possible to go either way.

I think less about the spot price and focus more on the risk of the investment. $3000 for a bitcoin 4 years ago was insane, but now it is a great steal.

You can find information about risk here:

https://www.amsinger.org

I hope you made out like a bandit my friend,

Aaron

[TheBeardedBaby]

I don't see a way to actually accurately predict the price in a long term. For short terms TA helps a lot but again, it's quite unpredictable.
Example, an exchange is hacked, the price goes down, those occasions you cannot predict.
Another guy predicted that the price on 1st July will be 12345$, Looks like he is right, but i guess his "guessing strategy" won't work every time.

But don't give up, if you believe in what you are doing, you gonna be successfull

[cocoadreamboy]

I don't see a way to actually accurately predict the price in a long term. For short terms TA helps a lot but again, it's quite unpredictable.
Example, an exchange is hacked, the price goes down, those occasions you cannot predict.
Another guy predicted that the price on 1st July will be 12345$, Looks like he is right, but i guess his "guessing strategy" won't work every time.

But don't give up, if you believe in what you are doing, you gonna be successfull

Belief in investing is hardly good advice bro. Numbers and data, understanding risk, taking profit when correct, and defending your downside those are aspects of intelligent investing.

Aaron

P.S. It is not July 1st yet lol

[BrewMaster]

i don't think anybody in that topic thought $10k is a joke. but everyone had problem with the way you came up with $10k price.

basically for me, your method is severely flawed because you are trying to link bitcoin' value with the  cost of its mining. you are forgetting that the cost of mining bitcoin increases with its price! so if we assume cost of mining according to you is $10k and price reaches $100k by the end of the year, the cost of mining will also increase to $100k. and if it drops to $10 the cost of minng will drop to $10 too.
you can't use something that moves because of price as the reason for speculating the price.

[cocoadreamboy]

i don't think anybody in that topic thought $10k is a joke. but everyone had problem with the way you came up with $10k price.

basically for me, your method is severely flawed because you are trying to link bitcoin' value with the  cost of its mining. you are forgetting that the cost of mining bitcoin increases with its price! so if we assume cost of mining according to you is $10k and price reaches $100k by the end of the year, the cost of mining will also increase to $100k. and if it drops to $10 the cost of minng will drop to $10 too.
you can't use something that moves because of price as the reason for speculating the price.

That is incorrect the cost of mining has to do with the hash rate. It has nothing to do with the price. The cost of mining is independent of the price.

Know your facts:

https://www.amsinger.org

Try not to spread falsehoods my friend,

Aaron

[DarkStar_]

That is incorrect the cost of mining has to do with the hash rate. It has nothing to do with the price. The cost of mining is independent of the price.

They are extremely correlated though, so you might as well say that the cost of mining depends on the price. Hash rate and price are directly related.

Let's say that BTC was trading at $100k and it costs $50k to mine a coin. There's 2x profit to be made there, so more miners will enter to take some of that profit. Who could pass up 100% ROI? As more miners enter the market as a result of the price, the global hashrate goes up. This causes difficulty to go up, so it will cost more to find a block. Eventually there will be an equilibrium where the cost to mine is very close to the price of a coin (depending on other factors though, such as electricity costs).

Or on the opposite end, let's say that BTC was trading at $50k and it costs $100k to mine a coin. Anyone still mining would be taking a substantial loss, so miners will start shutting down their farms if it is more profitable to shut down compared to mining at a loss. Global difficulty goes down, making it easier to find blocks and thus mine coins. It will eventually reach below $50k to mine a coin as less profitable miners would keep shutting down their equipment.

[el kaka22]

We have seen multiple people trying to calculate bitcoin and we have seen multiple methods of calculating bitcoin, sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong. Just because you got it right once (and its not even 10k and it is more right now so you might be considered wrong anyway) doesn't mean you will be right every single time.

There is only one calculation of bitcoins price and that is how much people willing to pay for it. Nothing more or nothing less, as long as people willing to pay bitcoin a million dollars then it means its a million dollars, if they are willing to pay a dollar for it then it is a dollar. There is no calculation of how much it worths or how much it is because the only thing that makes bitcoin worth anything is what people think it worths.

[YuginKadoya]

It was a coincidence that you had it right the first time you have calculated the price but in many aspects that Bitcoin is so volatile even if we know that we are in a bull run state there are possibilities that the price can turn red once in a while and there is no actual price calculation it may land in your predicted price or it may not, But all in the forum truly know that it is unpredictable there might be a pattern for the previous movement but there is certain news that will surely change any given prediction for the price of bitcoin and other Cryptocurrency, You can not say it is easy because many have tried but few have become successful.

[BitHodler]

and if it drops to $10 the cost of minng will drop to $10 too.

Not necessarily. The cost of mining depends on how efficient each miner operates, and even on how long they are willing to mine at a loss. It's not entirely uncommon for miners to mine at a loss.

The most efficient operations tend to sell enough of their coins so that they can manage to mine a certain number of months without gaining anything back. Miners even short Bitcoin to cover the risk of falling prices.

In the very long term when prices don't recover and miners run out of their reserves they won't have a choice but to give up or significantly shrink their operations, but Bitcoin as it is right now is too bullish for that.

[JohnBitCo]

In January of this year, I managed to predict a bitcoin price of $10,000.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5090403.0
Many readers thought it was a joke!
It is very interesting, as it is now do you feel about my method Bitcoins assessment?
Has your opinion changed?
Is it worth counting the bitcoin market price with my approach at the moment?
https://medium.com/@igormoseich/cost-of-the-bitcoin-a2d5d360a8bf

And how can you claim what you said is right ? Did bitcoin stopped at 10,000$ ? It moved up to 13,000$. If you had some precise calculation you can have said around 12,000$ and we might have believe you  

Even I can say that bitcoin will reach 20,000K and when it reaches that I would point out that I told bitcoin is 20K (while in actual its price might have reached 25K ) 

[Theb]

The total bitcoin money supply as of December 23, 2018, is 17,436,737 BTC. Each outlet gives a capitalization of 10,316 ounces of gold, respectively. It turns out 14,125 points give a total bitcoin capitalization of 145,971,400 ounces of gold. We divide this amount by the number of bitcoins and we get one bitcoin equal to 8.37 ounces of gold. Or 10,347 dollars, respectively.

I read your article on how you predicted that it will go above 10,000$ (10,347$ to be exact) but something still bugs me and it's on top of my head. Where did you come up the value of each outlet/establishment is worth 10,316 oz of gold? Did you just come up with that number on your own? Or how did you simply value it like that?

Don't hate me with this one but I'll be disapproving your way of analyzing the price for BTC. Outlets that accept Bitcoin cannot really be a good factor on at least looking for the fair value of it, they just simply accept Bitcoin but it doesn't directly correlate to it being a demand for them. It's not like they are buying them from you they are just accepting it as a mode of payment. Even if you say it counts as a real world use we cannot guarantee anything that BTC payments is something that they receive almost half of the time they open and close their business daily. Yeah sure a lot of outlets are accepting Bitcoin but does that mean its their number one or two received payments in their business?

[WinslowIII]

We have seen multiple people trying to calculate bitcoin and we have seen multiple methods of calculating bitcoin, sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong. Just because you got it right once (and its not even 10k and it is more right now so you might be considered wrong anyway) doesn't mean you will be right every single time.

There is only one calculation of bitcoins price and that is how much people willing to pay for it. Nothing more or nothing less, as long as people willing to pay bitcoin a million dollars then it means its a million dollars, if they are willing to pay a dollar for it then it is a dollar. There is no calculation of how much it worths or how much it is because the only thing that makes bitcoin worth anything is what people think it worths.

With bitcoin it's just not that simple to say the price is what people are willing to pay. There are ways bitcoin is used where price is completely irrelevant. It is very narrow minded to view bitcoin as merely a speculative instrument that is used to make more fiat.

[rdluffy]

For me it's lucky
BTC and cryptos are almost impossible to predict, and we have lot of "specialists" of cryptos and each one have a different value, obviously one of then will get the correct number

Personally I prefer to follow the trends and I'm happy with my results

[1Referee]

With bitcoin it's just not that simple to say the price is what people are willing to pay. There are ways bitcoin is used where price is completely irrelevant. It is very narrow minded to view bitcoin as merely a speculative instrument that is used to make more fiat.

He just stated how things are. The speculative nature is indeed dictating price discovery, how is that narrow minded? Bitcoin is worth what people want to pay for it, and speculation is a big part of that. Miners might jump in to support certain levels close to their break-even point, and stop selling, but if there are more speculative sellers, the price will go down anyway.

I doubt he wanted to paint Bitcoin off as something only being used to speculate with, but what he said is the reality.

[Dreamchaser21]

For me it's lucky
BTC and cryptos are almost impossible to predict, and we have lot of "specialists" of cryptos and each one have a different value, obviously one of then will get the correct number

Personally I prefer to follow the trends and I'm happy with my results

That’s how you calculate the value of bitcoin, and Its good to see that you made a good decision. There are so many ways to calculate bitcoin, sometimes in depends on how you look at it and how you interpret the market, in my view i just look at the chart of bitcoin and by there you can see the real value of BTC.

[WinslowIII]

With bitcoin it's just not that simple to say the price is what people are willing to pay. There are ways bitcoin is used where price is completely irrelevant. It is very narrow minded to view bitcoin as merely a speculative instrument that is used to make more fiat.

He just stated how things are. The speculative nature is indeed dictating price discovery, how is that narrow minded? Bitcoin is worth what people want to pay for it, and speculation is a big part of that. Miners might jump in to support certain levels close to their break-even point, and stop selling, but if there are more speculative sellers, the price will go down anyway.

I doubt he wanted to paint Bitcoin off as something only being used to speculate with, but what he said is the reality.

What someone is willing to pay for it is not all that matters, there is more to this. Sorry if you are too narrow minded to see past the gambling aspect of it.

[1Referee]

What someone is willing to pay for it is not all that matters, there is more to this. Sorry if you are too narrow minded to see past the gambling aspect of it.

Enlighten me as narrow minded being, what matters more?

This is the second time you say that what people are willing to pay for it isn't all that matters, and yet you haven't explained what it is. Go ahead.

[BrewMaster]

and if it drops to $10 the cost of minng will drop to $10 too.

Not necessarily. The cost of mining depends on how efficient each miner operates, and even on how long they are willing to mine at a loss. It's not entirely uncommon for miners to mine at a loss.

The most efficient operations tend to sell enough of their coins so that they can manage to mine a certain number of months without gaining anything back. Miners even short Bitcoin to cover the risk of falling prices.

In the very long term when prices don't recover and miners run out of their reserves they won't have a choice but to give up or significantly shrink their operations, but Bitcoin as it is right now is too bullish for that.

my example wasn't meant to explain different possible scenarios. and you shouldn't take the numbers literary. my point was that to show that you can not predict the price based on the  cost of mining because the cost changes with price not the other way around.
maybe it was better to tell that example this way:
if price were $100 and cost of mining were $100 and bitcoin price fell down to $10, the cost wouldn't stay up at $100, it will also drop and it certainly can't keep the price up. alternatively if cost were $100 and price went to $1000 the cost will also rise after the price and can not keep it down.

[Naida_BR]

In January of this year, I managed to predict a bitcoin price of $10,000.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5090403.0
Many readers thought it was a joke!
It is very interesting, as it is now do you feel about my method Bitcoins assessment?
Has your opinion changed?
Is it worth counting the bitcoin market price with my approach at the moment?
https://medium.com/@igormoseich/cost-of-the-bitcoin-a2d5d360a8bf

Show us your investment decisions that you made when you predicted that it will hit 10k.
You didn't made any assessment and get to a number. It was just a lucky guess, and I don't know why you try to promote that as a thorough analysis on your behalf.