The most important part of investing in bitcoin is timing.

[cocoadreamboy]

********************NEWEST UPDATE*********************
Ok bitcointalk! I have been hard at work over this last week. I have just put the finishing touches on my site!

I will be posting a new topic soon about how to identify pricing bottoms by utilizing the creation cost. It needs a couple more revisions, but it will be ready today or tomorrow.

Here is the link to my site again:

https://www.amsinger.org

As always I love your opinions and criticism. You need friction to make fire

Aaron

P.S. The next client research will be covering the price volatility increases when bitcoin is high above the creation cost.

*******************************************************
*****************UPDATE****************
Thanks so much everyone for your opinions and views!

I am setting up a complete redesign of the site, and I will be back in around a week with all new research and probing bitcoin questions.

The site will be down while I make all the upgrades and rebalance the scales.

Bitcointalk is one of the few places where you can go to meet crypto people. I am honored to speak and share my data and views with you all!

Love and hard work,

Aaron

****************************************


I put my savings into bitcoin in May 2017, little did I know that was one of the best times to invest.

In May 2017 bitcoin’s creation cost was $1,173.22 and the price was $1,383.00. That was a risk of ~15% (wholesale bitcoin). Later that year, bitcoin’s creation cost increased to $3,265.33 and the price increased to $13,798.00. That was a risk of ~75% (retail bitcoin). The problem was, I did not sell.

I didn’t know about creation cost at the time. I didn’t understand how bitcoin actually worked back then. I had no ability to calculate my risk.

My portfolio got hit hard over 2018, especially in November. It was hit hard enough that I started learning and learning well. I learned the reason why the price dissolved. I learned how to calculate creation cost. I learned programming so that I could effectively track it and measure it. I learned that venture capitalists are a$$holes. I learned how to build and design my financial website, and now I am learning how best to communicate what I know to other people.

I designed this system so that you can take advantage of bitcoin just like I did in 2017, but unlike me, get out at the right time in 2018. I don’t want other people to go through what I experienced, especially if it is as simple as telling people what the risk is right now in bitcoin, and that timing is the most important thing.

My website is linked below:

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

P.S. It feels like I am telling people to eat their bitcoin “vegetables”. Everywhere else they are screaming bitcoin 20k! or 30K! or 100K! selling their bitcoin “cupcakes”. But I’m a born entrepreneur, and quite frankly, I like the challenge.

[pooya87]

again with the creation cost! when will you start seeing that cost of mining changes with the price not the other way around.
price goes up > mining becomes more profitable > more miners join > hashrate rises > difficulty rises > cost of mining increases
price drops > mining becomes less profitable > some miners leave > hashrate drops > difficulty readjusts (decreases) > cost of mining decreases


additionally you are not talking about "investing" you are talking about day trading here. an investor shouldn't care about these short term fluctuations. you invest long term and timing in that case is not as important specially since "investors" invest their idle money that is not in anything.

[Vaskiy]

Here you are interlinking both the creation cost and the cost of a bitcoin that changed with a large margin due to the demand that occurred in a very short time period. With the same thought I started to invest on mining equipments when the bitcoin value was in the peak.

Further as the price fell low I was unable to profit nothing out of my investment, because what I mine is required to pay my electricity bills. Here only who profits is the large mining firm operators who contribute a large hash rates and most of the small rig owners will leave mining.

[cocoadreamboy]

Here you are interlinking both the creation cost and the cost of a bitcoin that changed with a large margin due to the demand that occurred in a very short time period. With the same thought I started to invest on mining equipments when the bitcoin value was in the peak.

Further as the price fell low I was unable to profit nothing out of my investment, because what I mine is required to pay my electricity bills. Here only who profits is the large mining firm operators who contribute a large hash rates and most of the small rig owners will leave mining.

That is very true, small miners get eaten alive over the long term. Because the large mining farms are basically running the show it is important to know what they are doing, and where their costs are. There are many hundreds of millions of dollars invested into these farms, they are incentivized to maintain the price when low and manipulate it for profit at certain times.

I was an s9 miner for a while too, but the large farms pushed me out. That is how I know that mining rewards and costs change everyday, and are not directly connected to price. Which is the topic of the day for the trolls. In no way can the ASIC supply increase by 40% (like the price has) in a week. That is speculation and manipulation.

Aaron

[odolvlobo]

That is very true, small miners get eaten alive over the long term. Because the large mining farms are basically running the show it is important to know what they are doing, and where their costs are. There are many hundreds of millions of dollars invested into these farms, they are incentivized to maintain the price when low and manipulate it for profit at certain times.

I was an s9 miner for a while too, but the large farms pushed me out. That is how I know that mining rewards and costs change everyday, and are not directly connected to price. Which is the topic of the day for the trolls. In no way can the ASIC supply increase by 40% (like the price has) in a week. That is speculation and manipulation.

More conspiracy nonsense. Miners have no way to manipulate prices. Your only evidence of manipulation is the fairy tales that people like to tell.

The big miners didn't push you out. You had an S9 just like they did. The reason they could continue mining with s9s is that they have been able to reduce energy costs. If you had low energy costs, you could continue mining, too. In fact, the price has outpaced the difficulty, so you may be able to mine again at least for a short while until the difficulty catches up.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

I disagree, as an investor the most important part of investing in bitcoin should be patience, timing comes second. Timing only plays a major role or works when you're a trader or speculative investor, investing for just a short period of time. For example, we have bitcoin enthusiasts who did invest when bitcoin was around $400-$1000 (you can call that perfect timing) but today due to lack of patience most of those investors don't have a single bitcoin due to impatience some might have sold at lost or little profit. As it's commonly said, "investors don't wait to buy (timing), they buy and wait (patience)".

[Kakmakr]

I am curious on how you would be able to predict the "timing" of the Bitcoin price.    This beast does not follow the rules and it is not predictable at all.... the price might spike upwards and then a short recovery period will follow and then it will go much higher again or we might see a 80% drop in the price like we did in 2018/2019 with a much longer recovery period. 

One thing I have learned from Bitcoin is that predictions is total bullshit and people claiming to know what the Bitcoin price will do, is also guess work. 

Let's discuss, I want to see if you are the real deal or another snake oil salesman. 

[Gabah56]

that's right bro. but there is also more important, namely capital to invest, especially money. because I myself have experienced it a few weeks ago. I see BTC prices going up
. but I have lacked capital. because my capital is running low because the price of the coins that I buy always goes down in price.

[ash.y]

I disagree, as an investor the most important part of investing in bitcoin should be patience, timing comes second. Timing only plays a major role or works when you're a trader or speculative investor, investing for just a short period of time. For example, we have bitcoin enthusiasts who did invest when bitcoin was around $400-$1000 (you can call that perfect timing) but today due to lack of patience most of those investors don't have a single bitcoin due to impatience some might have sold at lost or little profit. As it's commonly said, "investors don't wait to buy (timing), they buy and wait (patience)".

I agree. My brother was one of those lucky investors who invested in bitcoin when it was $1100 and he'd been very patient and at the same time well aware of the market, which helped him to predict the market trend but having said that the crypto market is highly unpredictable and it's a high risk. Gotta be brave and smart in taking risks where the idea of loosing wouldn't freak you out but rather will teach something new.

[taratorly]

I disagree, as an investor the most important part of investing in bitcoin should be patience, timing comes second. Timing only plays a major role or works when you're a trader or speculative investor, investing for just a short period of time. For example, we have bitcoin enthusiasts who did invest when bitcoin was around $400-$1000 (you can call that perfect timing) but today due to lack of patience most of those investors don't have a single bitcoin due to impatience some might have sold at lost or little profit. As it's commonly said, "investors don't wait to buy (timing), they buy and wait (patience)".

I agree. My brother was one of those lucky investors who invested in bitcoin when it was $1100 and he'd been very patient and at the same time well aware of the market, which helped him to predict the market trend but having said that the crypto market is highly unpredictable and it's a high risk. Gotta be brave and smart in taking risks where the idea of loosing wouldn't freak you out but rather will teach something new.

If the issue is Bitcoin investment, yes timing is important, patience. But the most important thing for the Altcoins is timing!

[Pursuer]

you have found the link and you are correct about the connection between bitcoin price and the cost of mining but you have made the common mistake of looking at that link in reverse direction. and the result is going to always be you getting to the party way too late because you are looking at the result of price rise and think it is the cause of price rise. it would be like finding the half eaten cake and the empty beer bottles and then conclude there WILL be a party in the future whereas the party is already over and you are seeing the result of it!

[jseverson]

I put my savings into bitcoin in May 2017

My portfolio got hit hard over 2018

I don't remember the exact numbers, but I'm pretty sure Bitcoin at any point in 2018 still had a higher price than Bitcoin in May 2017. Bitcoin didn't even hit $5k until like the last quarter of that year.

Either way, like most of the other posters, I don't buy into the theory that Bitcoin prices are dictated by mining costs. If miners could dictate prices, they'd almost literally be printing money.

[Maslate]

It is obviously right timing isn't working in all investors. In some cases that investor never risks their money at the bear season as they usually think that it will get worse in the coming day but the are actually wrong and they are just losing the chances that could be doubling their money counts.
This to look that if we are investing early this year, we are making it huge but its too late to realize. It means that we are in wrong timing if we are investing today.

[qwertyup23]

again with the creation cost! when will you start seeing that cost of mining changes with the price not the other way around.
price goes up > mining becomes more profitable > more miners join > hashrate rises > difficulty rises > cost of mining increases
price drops > mining becomes less profitable > some miners leave > hashrate drops > difficulty readjusts (decreases) > cost of mining decreases


additionally you are not talking about "investing" you are talking about day trading here. an investor shouldn't care about these short term fluctuations. you invest long term and timing in that case is not as important specially since "investors" invest their idle money that is not in anything.

In a broader perspective, day trading may also be considered as short-term investing. Although most investors have set their goals in their investments, there are times that they tend to withdraw their investments depending on the current market situation. Short and long-term investments have different time schemes but they rely on the same objective, which is to profit.

that's right bro. but there is also more important, namely capital to invest, especially money. because I myself have experienced it a few weeks ago. I see BTC prices going up
. but I have lacked capital. because my capital is running low because the price of the coins that I buy always goes down in price.

Before you invest, always consider your current capital and limitations. With cryptocurrencies as our primary investment, make sure that you leave at least a portion of your capital because of its high volatility. You'll never know when its price may pump or decrease!

[kryptqnick]

Investing in the right time is indeed only a part of the work. Selling before the price declines are important, but sometimes it is hard to do that. I didn't sell at the end of 2017, and I basically lost that money. At first, I didn't sell because the price was going up, and the transaction fees seemed too high to me. And then, when the price started going down, I thought it was a mere correction, something that'll pass soon...
Risk assessment is very important, but I am no expert on how to do that and whether it's even possible with something as unpredictable as Bitcoin. I am not sure your intuitions about the costs and the risks are right, but thanks for sharing your website that has info on this matter!

[Eraldo Coil]

Timing and patience are just both important and will make you earn more profit with timing alone or patience alone. Let's stop comparing these two strategies and just apply them both. Without timing, it will be hard for us to recover our money if the red days come. And without patience, we might lose the funds if the market goes red since we might think that there is no hope for the coin to develop.

[Lucius]

OP is just promote his site, just look at his post history : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2329711;sa=showPosts

I do not see any advantage of buying subscription to your analysis, what you can or can not predict is something very elementary and basic. What you say about 2017 / 2018 is beginner misunderstanding mixed with greed.

In May 2017 you put money in bitcoin - price was from $1300 to $2300 at the end of May. Then you say that your "portfolio got hit hard", especially in November when price of 1 BTC was from $3700 to $6500, so how you "got hit hard" if you buy in range from $1300 to $2300?

You did not lost anything from time you invest until this day, and you can only be sorry if you sold in time when some "experts" say that price will go down to $1000.

[accounting 181293]

actually the most important thing is patience. it doesn't matter if you were late to sell, as long as you wait to wait someday prices will rise again. so start being patient now because bitcoin has started to rise again. and always remember to set the time and target to sell.

[dothebeats]

Timing is everything for bitcoin investments but then again, you cannot time the markets, so it's pretty hard to tell when should one be pulling the triggers and when would one take it slow. But for the past 10 years, bitcoin is still on an upward journey, so if one is patient enough to wait a couple of years, then perhaps their investments would have gone up so high and take a handsome profit in the end. Then again, we know that people are tempted to collect profits whenever it already knocks at our door, and who wouldn't take that chance right?

[BrewMaster]

OP is just promote his site, just look at his post history : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2329711;sa=showPosts

yeah, he crawled out of the speculation board into the main board for advertising. what i am curious about is whether anybody have ever bothered paying him any money. it is not just that selling this kind of services like this doesn't interest anybody but also because he is dead wrong about all his speculations and so far topics that i have seen from him where he was guessing a price has been way off the mark!