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Author Topic: Bitcoin stability  (Read 4419 times)
ElectricMucus
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November 13, 2011, 08:10:29 PM
 #21

We are repeating the pattern from last month nearly 1:1, I'd expect some more stability about 1-2 weeks till the sellers get impatient and dump. Volume is just too low to support any significant rise, and even what we are having now is artificially inflated.

I think bitcoin more resembles the silver bubble from 1980, there were similar motives at work here bitcoin just plays it out a little faster. The Nasdaq just doesn't fit, bitcoin would have recovered months ago if it were that.
The silver "big dip" took over a decade, if you translate that to bitcoin we would have at least one full year of the same. I don't expect any new highs till well after the reduction of the block reward.

You could say the reduction of the block reward and the hype about the Mayan calender might do for bitcoin what the World Trade Center TV-Show and the Gold heist did for precious metals.

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ElectricMucus
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November 13, 2011, 08:55:11 PM
 #22

Is there a quick way to see the amount of bitcoins moved through the blockchain in a day (with the change taken out)?

There is the bitcoin days destroyed measure but this does also count book keeping transactions ie someone sending bitcoins to another wallet.
I image those to be quite large, especially if you consider that there are a large amount of scammed bitcoins which have to keep in constant movement in order to be not discovered.

And there are trading bots doing arbitrage, the exchanges themselves and the motivation of the top 10 bitcoin holders to remain elusive.

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November 14, 2011, 01:46:38 AM
 #23

So much for stability Tongue.

Baseless Speculation: I think the price has entered the next drop, this time due to panic selling. What happens next depends on whether the $2.4 and $2 supports hold - if they do, we could even have an attempt at "stability" at the $2.4-$3 range.
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November 14, 2011, 01:49:44 AM
 #24

So much for stability Tongue.

Baseless Speculation: I think the price has entered the next drop, this time due to panic selling. What happens next depends on whether the $2.4 and $2 supports hold - if they do, we could even have an attempt at "stability" at the $2.4-$3 range.

There is no support at $2,40. It's another ghostwall. Sprang up from 600 coins to 50000 coins right after the second major dump happened.


EDIT: Aaaaand while I'm typing it has already disappeared.

EDIT2: Now it's at $2,50. This is hilarious.
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November 14, 2011, 01:59:57 AM
 #25

So much for stability Tongue.

Baseless Speculation: I think the price has entered the next drop, this time due to panic selling. What happens next depends on whether the $2.4 and $2 supports hold - if they do, we could even have an attempt at "stability" at the $2.4-$3 range.

There is no support at $2,40. It's another ghostwall. Sprang up from 600 coins to 50000 coins right after the second major dump happened.


EDIT: Aaaaand while I'm typing it has already disappeared.

EDIT2: Now it's at $2,50. This is hilarious.
2.5 is a ghostwall, yes, but there should be technical support at $2.4 since the price bounced off there. People will be inclined to place buys at that level because they wish to recieve cheap bitcoins.
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November 14, 2011, 02:09:38 AM
 #26

Looks like somebody sold down 50k bitcoins? And the price still managed to just clear the 2.5 $ mark, I suspect that this was just one sale, the price will bounce back up to the 2.9-3.1 range pretty quick.

One sale that just took like $100k USD off the market... how many times do you think people will keep scrambling to lose money?

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November 14, 2011, 02:33:44 AM
 #27

So much for stability Tongue.

Baseless Speculation: I think the price has entered the next drop, this time due to panic selling. What happens next depends on whether the $2.4 and $2 supports hold - if they do, we could even have an attempt at "stability" at the $2.4-$3 range.

Looks like somebody sold down 50k bitcoins? And the price still managed to just clear the 2.5 $ mark, I suspect that this was just one sale, the price will bounce back up to the 2.9-3.1 range pretty quick.

I'm generally a realist and bear on bitcoin's price, but I tend to agree with this point.  I believe we will see a slow rise back to the $3 over the next week. 

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ElectricMucus
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November 14, 2011, 11:26:15 AM
 #28

Why would anyone wanna buy now  Huh

We are still 30% above the last low, and the market will not simply "forget" that we did hit 2.3 for a brief moment... especially not the trading bots who drive a large portion of the volume.

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November 14, 2011, 11:38:52 AM
 #29

I bought hard whilst I slept, slowing selling again, and taking my lady out for dinner!

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November 14, 2011, 04:20:01 PM
 #30

I think that there will be strong support at $2 which is why I think it's not a bad idea to support it with some bids. If there is another strong selling wave that breaks $2, we will probably go way lower to a new bottom at $1.x.

It's all about the $2.04 low holding. If we go to $1.9x, there will probably be panic selling leading to a price around $1.5. However if $2 holds I think it's likely that we'll see the price climb significantly during the week.

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November 14, 2011, 04:56:54 PM
 #31

if we reach 2$ and stay there for 3 weeks, will you still call it stability?

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November 14, 2011, 05:02:47 PM
 #32

if we reach 2$ and stay there for 3 weeks, will you still call it stability?

No.  And if I had any bitcoins left I'd sell them at $2 before it dropped to $1.50, then $1.  There's a pattern here.
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May 22, 2013, 04:46:32 PM
 #33

If I had any bitcoins left I'd sell them at $2 before it dropped to $1.50, then $1.  There's a pattern here.


Pardon the necro...  Smiley












As far as I can tell, we've been in a narrower price range for longer than any other time period since trading began.  So, yeah, congrats everyone.  I was right.  We finally did it!  Stability!!!


We have stability?
Zangelbert Bingledack
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May 22, 2013, 05:26:45 PM
 #34



Wow that dampened spring pattern is uncannily similar to the recent price action, except on like a 10x slower timescale.

I love these necros. Great for perspective.
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June 10, 2015, 04:59:01 PM
 #35



Wow that dampened spring pattern is uncannily similar to the recent price action, except on like a 10x slower timescale.


[*2015 bump*]


I love these necros. Great for perspective.


"The more things change the more they stay the same."

Do take the time to read the 2011 replies.

Many of them -- perhaps even any of them -- could have been written yesterday.

Even though the current price is 230 instead of 2.3

Cheers! Smiley

bytezero
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June 10, 2015, 06:38:26 PM
 #36

The calm before the storm .I am just grateful that I can continue to get them while they are affordable

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June 10, 2015, 06:49:29 PM
 #37

Haha great find, loved reading the exact same discussion about stability and going up or down as in het Wall Observer-thread =D

Were the sockpuppets not there yet then, or were their posts deleted? ;+)

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June 10, 2015, 07:50:04 PM
 #38

It's surprising how stable the price has become.  Lack of interest?

Volume is about $150K a day, which is tiny.  Some of that is 'bots trading the same funds back and forth.  It's not clear how much money is flowing in and out of the Bitcoin system.  But the stability is clearly not an effect of large transaction volume.

If the price has stabilized at $3.00, it seems clear enough to me that the amount of money flowing in is around $20k/day net.  1000 people putting in $20/day would be all it would take (and soon it will only be $10/day.)  I find it amazing that given the size of the human population, the difficulties with the various monetary systems, and the ease with which BTC and migrate, the price is not much much higher.  But there it is.  I'm resolved to avoid staring a gift horse in the mouth.


I love it when someone necros and old thread I commented on so I can see where my head was at back in the day...


techgeek
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June 10, 2015, 09:32:55 PM
 #39

1 bitcoin week ~= 1 dollar year

Bitcoin's June bubble matches pretty well with NASDAQ '99-'04 at roughly 1:75 scaling.

Since June, bitcoins have depreciated about 10% each week, while dollar prices (including food and energy) inflate about that much annually.

IF that value is correct, then 1 dollar a year, wouldnt everyone just dump it then.

It makes no sense to hold 1 bitcoin a weeek that equals to a $1 a year.. even a person on food stamps is making more.

kenbytes
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June 12, 2015, 02:35:08 AM
 #40

I've only been watching BTC for about a one year and  During that time we have had longer periods of stability but I highly doubt that BTC has "stabilized" at ~230.00
More volatility is almost certainly on the horizon.

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