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Author Topic: Bitcoin stability  (Read 4758 times)
Dansker
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November 12, 2011, 11:40:12 AM
 #1

So we have finally gotten it: STABILITY!

I think it's great, the price hovers around 3, and the market seems to have decided on a base value for bitcoins.

This is not good news for currency speculaters, but great news for bitcoins as a currency used for trade.

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November 12, 2011, 12:15:34 PM
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Althought many dream that this would remain like that, I can guarantee you that this is very temporary. We are set for huge volatility the next weeks, months and probably years to come.

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November 12, 2011, 12:17:22 PM
 #3

So we have finally gotten it: STABILITY!

I think it's great, the price hovers around 3, and the market seems to have decided on a base value for bitcoins.

This is not good news for currency speculaters, but great news for bitcoins as a currency used for trade.
Do you realize that if more people use it to trade it's price increase? The fact that it is NOT rising means no new ppl start to use it
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November 12, 2011, 12:49:10 PM
 #4

So we have finally gotten it: STABILITY!

I think it's great, the price hovers around 3, and the market seems to have decided on a base value for bitcoins.

This is not good news for currency speculaters, but great news for bitcoins as a currency used for trade.
Do you realize that if more people use it to trade it's price increase? The fact that it is NOT rising means no new ppl start to use it

+1

sad, but true

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November 12, 2011, 01:07:37 PM
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Do you realize that if more people use it to trade it's price increase? The fact that it is NOT rising means no new ppl start to use it

Not true IMO. Price is currently totally dominated by speculation, and new markets grow exponentially from tiny seeds. There is no way you can extract such information out of the price chart, let alone at the end of a huge bust.

If you want to figure out such things, look at more businesses like bitcointorrentz or Casascius or Spendbitcoins. Their statements are 2:1 positive:negative, so we don't really have a conclusive image.
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November 12, 2011, 06:54:33 PM
 #6

I think you confuse my longing for stability with a longing for things being static.

I want the price to fluctuate, just less wildly.

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November 12, 2011, 07:10:45 PM
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If bitcoins price were driven by commerce the would be around 10-20 cents right now.

That would mean a market cap of just under a million dollar which is still optimistic. Rationally it would even be something like 10 - 100K.

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November 12, 2011, 08:10:09 PM
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If bitcoins price were driven by commerce the would be around 10-20 cents right now.

That would mean a market cap of just under a million dollar which is still optimistic. Rationally it would even be something like 10 - 100K.

Can you please post your calculus, including velocity of exchange.

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November 12, 2011, 08:21:26 PM
 #9

If bitcoins price were driven by commerce the would be around 10-20 cents right now.

That would mean a market cap of just under a million dollar which is still optimistic. Rationally it would even be something like 10 - 100K.

Can you please post your calculus, including velocity of exchange.

Those are just rough figures I made up by looking at the stuff offered on the wiki and the forum. In order to get discrete figures I'd have to make a survey or something.

Would you be willing to participate in that?

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November 12, 2011, 09:34:45 PM
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Do you realize that if more people use it to trade it's price increase? The fact that it is NOT rising means no new ppl start to use it

Not true IMO. Price is currently totally dominated by speculation, and new markets grow exponentially from tiny seeds. There is no way you can extract such information out of the price chart, let alone at the end of a huge bust.

If you want to figure out such things, look at more businesses like bitcointorrentz or Casascius or Spendbitcoins. Their statements are 2:1 positive:negative, so we don't really have a conclusive image.
Yeah you are right about that
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November 13, 2011, 12:28:44 AM
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Those are just rough figures I made up by looking at the stuff offered on the wiki and the forum. In order to get discrete figures I'd have to make a survey or something.

Would you be willing to participate in that?

I was being facetious. It is impossible to calculate an economy's 'market cap' by its user base, unless you know how quickly money is moving by all participants. Often, the faster a money depreciates, the more/faster its use.

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November 13, 2011, 06:42:50 AM
 #12

It's surprising how stable the price has become.  Lack of interest?

Volume is about $150K a day, which is tiny.  Some of that is 'bots trading the same funds back and forth.  It's not clear how much money is flowing in and out of the Bitcoin system.  But the stability is clearly not an effect of large transaction volume.
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November 13, 2011, 07:14:12 AM
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It's surprising how stable the price has become.  Lack of interest?

Volume is about $150K a day, which is tiny.  Some of that is 'bots trading the same funds back and forth.  It's not clear how much money is flowing in and out of the Bitcoin system.  But the stability is clearly not an effect of large transaction volume.

If the price has stabilized at $3.00, it seems clear enough to me that the amount of money flowing in is around $20k/day net.  1000 people putting in $20/day would be all it would take (and soon it will only be $10/day.)  I find it amazing that given the size of the human population, the difficulties with the various monetary systems, and the ease with which BTC and migrate, the price is not much much higher.  But there it is.  I'm resolved to avoid staring a gift horse in the mouth.


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November 13, 2011, 07:35:07 AM
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This thread is hilarious  Cheesy

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November 13, 2011, 08:12:51 AM
 #15

This thread is hilarious  Cheesy
No doubt. "We've been around the $3 mark for almost a month... Eureka! We have Stability!" Remember when we were totally stable at $30 for like 10 minutes?

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November 13, 2011, 08:34:26 AM
 #16

Stability around any price (30c, $3, or $30, take your pick) is the best possible outcome for bitcoin.  Imagine being a merchant in August or September:

"I'm getting $10 for my sale"

10 minutes later

"Oh, it's now only $9"

Another 10 minutes

"It's now $12, great!"

Later that day ...

"Damn, it's now $8"

No merchant in their right mind would tolerate the instability we have seen in recent months.  Merchants are not Wall Street speculators, riding a speculative high to make money.

If bitcoin remains at $3 for months or even years it would be a great result.

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November 13, 2011, 10:06:12 AM
 #17

So we have finally gotten it: STABILITY!

I think it's great, the price hovers around 3, and the market seems to have decided on a base value for bitcoins.

This is not good news for currency speculaters, but great news for bitcoins as a currency used for trade.
Do you realize that if more people use it to trade it's price increase? The fact that it is NOT rising means no new ppl start to use it

you disregard the assimilation of the daily influx of ~ 7200 btc necessary for equilibrium

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November 13, 2011, 10:31:20 AM
 #18

Althought many dream that this would remain like that, I can guarantee you that this is very temporary. We are set for huge volatility the next weeks, months and probably years to come.

I agree with you.

So many people dreamed about $100, $1000 or even higher. It's entirely possible since the number of Bitcoins is very limited. Not to say that for the vast majority of people on this forum, an increase in BTC value is beneficial.

Offer Bitcoiners a choice: do you want price to stay at $3 forever, or potentially increase to $1000 with huge volatility? I guess 99% will choose the latter.

Stability is never a solution. It takes gold and silver thousands of years to be stable (or you can say, to have a price). Technology can make Bitcoin grow faster, but not just today.

I would regard gold's price as a good stability benchmark for Bitcoin - average about 1% per day and maximum about 4% per day with a long-term trend of going upwards.

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November 13, 2011, 12:53:52 PM
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I think you confuse my longing for stability with a longing for things being static.

I want the price to fluctuate, just less wildly.

I think they're ignoring you and having fun slightly derailing this thread into "What if it stays at exactly 3 for ages?!?".

Cluster2k has it right, mid-term volatility of the kind we had from February to October isn't optimal to start businesses. But an increase in business activity greatly increases Bitcoin's chances and thus raises price. So, in effect, real growth temporarily slows down itself by causing volatility. Just one more effect that shows you can't build Rome in one day.

Things appear to calm down. That's a pretty good sign, especially since it appears to be happening at a price much larger than the pre-bubble values. The final correction is still missing though; usually, after a bust has settled, Price does another distinct drift as the trend-following crowd dissolved. It is an interesting question where we will end up in that, as it indicates how many people still trust in Bitcoin after all the chaos.
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November 13, 2011, 08:05:34 PM
 #20

1 bitcoin week ~= 1 dollar year

Bitcoin's June bubble matches pretty well with NASDAQ '99-'04 at roughly 1:75 scaling.

Since June, bitcoins have depreciated about 10% each week, while dollar prices (including food and energy) inflate about that much annually.

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