2017 Crash DejaVu?

[Astargath]

Is it me or are the 2 last monthly candlesticks looking eerily similar? Similar uptrends before as well. Could we experience a huge crash like in 2017 again? At least the RSI is not similar but still

[LeGaulois]

Jesus Christ, I hope not, We were just starting to see the optimism growing. I don't want to go back to a crypto market that sleeps for months. It's like to go back to the Middle Ages.

I don't know what the fuck happened today, but we got a good slap in the face. A $1500 slap actually...
Fuck, it's always easier to crash than to pump

[tomahawk9]

Back in 2017, around November, there was a massive drop from 7700 to 5760 or so (25% decrease), you know what happened two weeks later? Price went up to 11300. From 11k it went down to 4-digits again, especifically 9300 (18% decrease), and what happened next? We touched 16k. We saw similar behaviour all the way up until we touched the last ATH.

So, these massive price swings are common in a bull run. Right now, I don't expect a massive crash, quite the opposite, i'm expecting the price to go above the 13k barrier in the upcoming weeks. In the event that the price actually continues to go down from here, fine by me, cheap is always good.

[Astargath]

Back in 2017, around November, there was a massive drop from 7700 to 5760 or so (25% decrease), you know what happened two weeks later? Price went up to 11300. From 11k it went down to 4-digits again, especifically 9300 (18% decrease), and what happened next? We touched 16k. We saw similar behaviour all the way up until we touched the last ATH.

So, these massive price swings are common in a bull run. Right now, I don't expect a massive crash, quite the opposite, i'm expecting the price to go above the 13k barrier in the upcoming weeks. In the event that the price actually continues to go down from here, fine by me, cheap is always good.

Yeah but going from ~$3k to $14k seems like a bull run already, no?

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Back in 2017, around November, there was a massive drop from 7700 to 5760 or so (25% decrease), you know what happened two weeks later? Price went up to 11300. From 11k it went down to 4-digits again, especifically 9300 (18% decrease), and what happened next? We touched 16k. We saw similar behaviour all the way up until we touched the last ATH.

Yep, all that is good to keep in mind at a time like this.  I also keep remembering how long bitcoin was stuck at around $3500--and a couple years before that, it could barely get past $400.  That's the perspective I like to keep, and I'm not going to react to what amounts to a normal price drop for bitcoin.  It's barely below $10k right now, and that's just fine with me.

Corrections like this are healthy and to be expected, especially when something has shot up as fast as bitcoin did recently.  It's just what happens; nothing to see here, folks.

Yeah but going from ~$3k to $14k seems like a bull run already, no?

Hell yes it does.  I just think bitcoin shot up too high, too fast and that kind of gain isn't sustainable without some sort of dip.  The thing with bitcoin is that its dips are pretty dramatic.

[rdluffy]

We ALL are afraid to go back to a crypto market that sleeps for months, like 2018 

But I don't think this is the time, we are growing and all people are optimistic about BTC, we was at 3k level not a long time ago...

[Theb]

Similar the candlesticks are it doesn't still tell the same story as before, just by looking at the chart you have provided it shows that they are in fact on a different scenario. Look at the volume we have now compared in the past. It shows that the volume even though we are at a lower bullish price shows that it's greater compared to the December bull run. Greater volume on means a greater participation in the market, even if we correct to a lower price now and enter into a bear market yet again it will be shorter compared to what we have last time.

[Leon83]

We had similar patterns from september 2015 and all the way to november 2017. 50 to 70 days cycles between lows. And 20-35% price decline from the tops within the cycles.

[RodeoX]

As long as people insist on using bitcoin as an investment vehicle we should see epic crashes.  I would expect to see at least a 50% drop when crashing. 70 -90% being epic. There is no end in sight for this.

[exstasie]

Is it me or are the 2 last monthly candlesticks looking eerily similar? Similar uptrends before as well. Could we experience a huge crash like in 2017 again? At least the RSI is not similar but still

It would be comparable if we crashed to $7K in the next couple weeks and didn't recover. This time we haven't nearly retraced last month's candle so I wouldn't make the comparison.

Wait for the candle to close. We're only half way through the month. There's still lots of time for shenanigans.

[Slow death]

I believe that unfortunately the main reason why the price is falling a lot is because of this:

US Senators Grill Facebook on Privacy, Trust Issues in Libra Hearing

Libra Vs. US Congress: All There Is to Know Ahead of Hearings

Facebook Stresses Libra’s Compliance With FinCEN at Senate Hearing

and if the price are resisting a collapse should probably be because many people are selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin. Many people buy bitcoin because they think that with Libra entry, the price of bitcoin will go up a lot, and how libra is facing governments, those people who bought bitcoin thinking that Libra will be a great success and will cause bitcoin to increase a lot should be panic and are selling. I really wanted to believe that people are not buying bitcoin because of Libra, but unfortunately looking at the latest news, it is clear that, the reason of the price has increased a lot is because of Libra. this reminds me in 2017 when people thought that with the entry of the FUTURES would enter many institutional investors, but instead, governments began to make pressure and the price fell a lot. history is repeating itself in a different way

[buwaytress]

Back in 2017, around November, there was a massive drop from 7700 to 5760 or so (25% decrease), you know what happened two weeks later? Price went up to 11300. From 11k it went down to 4-digits again, especifically 9300 (18% decrease), and what happened next? We touched 16k. We saw similar behaviour all the way up until we touched the last ATH.

So, these massive price swings are common in a bull run. Right now, I don't expect a massive crash, quite the opposite, i'm expecting the price to go above the 13k barrier in the upcoming weeks. In the event that the price actually continues to go down from here, fine by me, cheap is always good.

Someone pointed this out quicker than me, and yeah if you like, this is just like 2017, I remember it all too well, almost was daily transfixed by the price movements... it was my first experience with a parabolic move, and had only a year ago to that seen struggles to hit 4-digit valuation.

That's not to say we're copying the move now. I still think it's too soon. But when has Bitcoin ever been rational right?

[BitHodler]

As long as people insist on using bitcoin as an investment vehicle we should see epic crashes.  I would expect to see at least a 50% drop when crashing. 70 -90% being epic. There is no end in sight for this.

Exactly. People's main reason to be here is still speculation related-- buying what goes up and selling what goes down is part of every market. The sentiment is just as volatile as the price is.

I personally don't think we'll see the bullish trend come to an end unless we see two consecutive bearish closes on the monthly time frame. Currently everything is still looking good and this correction a healthy pullback.

I won't say this is a dip to buy into because we might go a bit lower, but these prices are becoming more interesting for those who dollar cost average once or twice a month. Lower price means more satoshis for your fiat.

[exstasie]

As long as people insist on using bitcoin as an investment vehicle we should see epic crashes.  I would expect to see at least a 50% drop when crashing. 70 -90% being epic. There is no end in sight for this.

Bitcoin rarely drops more than ~40% in a bull market and looking at the monthly chart, this is a bull market. I expect that to be the lower bound for this correction. I doubt we'll see below the low $8,000s. I'm not sure we'll get that far either.

[figmentofmyass]

the first crash candle is a 48% drop, the second is 29%. that's the first indication that these are two very different situations.

these current monthly candles look a lot more like jun-aug 2016 than the 2017 top. in other words, this is probably a correction and not the start of a bear market.

[1Referee]

Gravity is doing its work. It just isn't healthy to go up the way we did if we don't build up support zones.

Even if we end up touching $6000-$8000 that's still great considering the fact that we put in a higher low. Going from the $3000 bottom to building a new price floor above $6000 is actually very bullish. It might not feel like that for most people looking at how the price went down hard from $13,800 to these levels, but this stimulates investors to cash out profits out of fear.

There just isn't a way around it, the weekly scale looks bearish. Adjust to the changed market dynamics or risk more disappointment.

[figmentofmyass]

Even if we end up touching $6000-$8000 that's still great considering the fact that we put in a higher low. Going from the $3000 bottom to building a new price floor above $6000 is actually very bullish.

sub-$7500 would be the first lower low on the weekly charts. so surely bulls do not want to see that.

dropping nearly 60% isn't bullish, period. bitcoin doesn't do that during bull markets. these targets far surpass any expectations based on history. the only exceptions were essentially flash crashes in august 2012 and april 2013. we don't have the same illiquid conditions as back then and we are weeks into this correction, so that seems doubtful.

a drop like that could mean we're actually in a bear market. and going sub-$3k after an epic 6 month bull trap pretty much guarantees we're going much deeper, likely below the 2013 ATH. that would threaten to break the entire historic bull trend since 2010.

instead, i think the "rebuy at $6k" idea willy woo and others are pushing is just a pipe dream.

[1Referee]

dropping nearly 60% isn't bullish. bitcoin doesn't do that during bull markets. the only exceptions were essentially flash crashes in august 2012 and april 2013. we don't have the same illiquid conditions as back then so i doubt it.

in the most optimistic scenario, bulls could hope for a long term sideways market after a drop like that. at worst, it would mean we're actually in a bear market. and going sub-$3k after an epic 6 month bull trap pretty much guarantees we're going much deeper, likely below the 2013 ATH. that would threaten to break the entire historic bull trend.

instead, i think the "rebuy at $6k" idea willy woo and others are pushing is just a pipe dream.

Building up a higher price floor is extremely bullish long term speaking. The short term action might not be from the general point of view.

People just need to discard the few hours that we've been hovering over the $13,000 level. Current price action might be an early indicator that the bull market is over, but there is nothing that you can do about it other than to adjust to the changed market dynamics. The trend is your friend until it no longer is, and the friendship is weakening day by day. The bounce from sub $10,000 to just over $11,000 was a poor show.

We need a bit more price action, but it seems that we are forming a large decending triangle.

You got to love this market. One week ago we were all bullish and now it's going the other way.

[figmentofmyass]

You got to love this market. One week ago we were all bullish and now it's going the other way.

that's sort of my point.

if you zoom out, we have been in a $4500 range for almost a month. a week ago we were at the top of the range, now we're at the bottom. as expected, bears are already lining up for $5k and $6k. but how realistic is that?

i think people underestimate what it means (% wise) to fall another $3000-4000 from here. a 57% crash to $6k is straight up bear market behavior. nothing like that ever happened during the 2015-17 bull market, not even once. (and not even close)

[timerland]

Doesn't look like it to me at all.

I don't think that the bull market has even entered the major stages of bullishness, fear of missing out, and euphoria yet. Prices have rose a crap ton over the last 3-4 months, yes, but nowhere to the scale of 2017, or what I'd expect to be the peak of the market.

If you look at this chart, I think that the more likely scenario is that we're currently in the first bear trap.



Markets will consolidate at a lower price before testing the $10k once again. I remain bullish for the long run despite people's concerns about Libra, because ultimately that has nothing to do with bitcoin's fundamentals.