Speculating with Tom Lee

[BitHodler]

Not only that, Tom Lee is Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder, so we all know that's the reason behind his shilling of bitcoin from the very beginning. He needs to make his client happy, thus speculating that the price could really go very high at the end of the year.

I doubt he has many clients left (if he had any to begin with) after being wrong so many times. 2018 was the year all his predictions have been slaughtered. It was truly embarrassing seeing him rehash his own nonsense.

One would assume that Tom Lee with his background and knowledge would adjust his opinion on the market because it was clearly following a bearish path in 2018, but no, he kept acting like an empty headed perma bull.

What I have also noticed is that his legacy predictions lately are wrong more often than right. News outlets should stop inviting him but apparently they don't care enough. Tom's bad reputation draws views....

[Lucius]

I think that the picture from OP is says a thousand words about this expert, like he is thinking "OMG I say something stupid, again".

Personally, I do not know that someone has uttered so much speculatios and that he has been wrong so many times, this is not even funny anymore. But people like him do not retreat, even if he sounds like a broken plate or a drunken parrot. When he say something in the sense that bitcoin should be worth $14 000 based on number of bitcoin address (not sure if he think only on active or in total), I stop pay attention on him.

It is better to be focused on people who give long-term predictions based on some facts, and completely ignore such "experts".

[1Referee]

One would assume that Tom Lee with his background and knowledge would adjust his opinion on the market because it was clearly following a bearish path in 2018, but no, he kept acting like an empty headed perma bull.

He plays a 'smart' game here by not changing his predictions from bullish to bearish because just like most people here have no clue about the future direction of the market, he doesn't either. The best option is to stay put and don't move an inch. If you keep predicting certain outrageous price levels, and stick to it, you'll be right eventually and the mainstream media will crown you as the expert who called the bull run.

That being said, he became a tad bit bearish towards what right now seems the end of the bear market. People roasted the dude for being wrong again and for becoming bearish, lol. He shouldn't have done that. If he kept repeating his own bla bla he right now would be able to say that it took a bit longer than expected, but I'm still on the right track.

[buwaytress]

Might as well create a thread and mark the OP with their key predictions. Not one to believe these guys, but definitely one to enjoy the fun alongside the finger pointing and inevitable fame-claiming once predictions invariably hit. Suggest to make:
1. Date of Prediction and Price at time.
2. Target Price and Date.

And then when date reached, you can I guess put accuracy.

Might even show newbies they really shouldn't be listening to experts =D

[pooya87]

I just think we've finally reached a point in the market where his predictions actually make sense now. If there was ever a time to stop making fun of Tom Lee (especially if it reinforces bias against his opinions), it's now.

I've never doubted the prices he espoused were going to happen at some point. It's the timing that's been wrong most of the time.

I hope he doesn't have a legion of fans who go full leverage every time he makes a prediction. If they did then they'll all be in cardboard boxes by now.

nah, i think he lost his credibility back in 2018 when he continued insisting on hitting ATH by the end of the year [2018] and all the while price was going down without any signs of reversal. people have to be real ignorant to still listen to what this dude is saying. i mean making wrong predictions is normal and everyone does it but predicting against the market trend for a whole year and sticking to it is just dumb!

[jseverson]

Might as well create a thread and mark the OP with their key predictions. Not one to believe these guys, but definitely one to enjoy the fun alongside the finger pointing and inevitable fame-claiming once predictions invariably hit. Suggest to make:
1. Date of Prediction and Price at time.
2. Target Price and Date.

And then when date reached, you can I guess put accuracy.

Might even show newbies they really shouldn't be listening to experts =D

Here's an article that details at least some of his misses:

In April 2018, Lee insisted that bitcoin would rally big-time right after tax season. At the time, Lee attributed the drop in bitcoin’s price to mass sell-offs caused by investors trying to sell off their cryptocurrency holdings to avoid paying taxes on them.

That rally never happened.

[...]

Then, in November 2018 — at the height of the crypto bear market — Lee doubled-down on his exuberant $15,000 year-end bitcoin price target. At the time, Lee called the Crypto Winter an "awkward transition" that would pass very soon.

As we all know, that comeback also never happened.

[...]

In December 2018, a frustrated Lee said he was finished giving price predictions given his history of inaccuracy.

However, he said that bitcoin's fair market value at the time was $13,800 to $14,800. At the time, bitcoin never topped $4,180.

Ironically enough, Bitcoin is hovering above $10k now, which is the lower end of his prediction in the article lol.

[buwaytress]

@jsverson: Thanks for that share, I have seen a few articles -- when I can bring myself to sift through predictions analysis and analyses of said predictions -- but they don't exactly go back very far. How does Lee still have his job when he supposedly gave up his prediction business anyway? You either be wrong all the time and own it, or give up and do something else =p

Not that I'm calling for anyone's head. It's a free internet haha. Just wonder how white-collar offices function in Fundstrat!

[jseverson]

-snip-

Well he's a founding partner and he's pretty popular, so that probably has a lot to do with his job retention lol. Either way, he's had a lot of Wall Street experience, so he's probably better at other areas. Crypto prices are almost impossible to predict to be fair, and I imagine it's only harder if you look at the market through permabull/bear lenses.

But yeah, people shouldn't be taking anyone's word of the market anyway, so it's pretty moot in the end lol.

[bbc.reporter]

I just think we've finally reached a point in the market where his predictions actually make sense now. If there was ever a time to stop making fun of Tom Lee (especially if it reinforces bias against his opinions), it's now.

I've never doubted the prices he espoused were going to happen at some point. It's the timing that's been wrong most of the time.

I hope he doesn't have a legion of fans who go full leverage every time he makes a prediction. If they did then they'll all be in cardboard boxes by now.

Agreed! Timing is everything. Similar to what Dana White would say hehehe. However, is Tom Lee timing bitcoin's movements or is he really a blind permabull?

[bbc.reporter]

Tom Lee's art of predicting bitcoin with giving no prediction as the prediction, however mentioning somethng that might or might not be a prediction.

Tom Lee must be related to Bruce Lee. He is applying his uncle's Jeet Kun Do on investing!



Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee believes that recent interest rate cuts in the United States by the Federal Reserve are a boon for Bitcoin (BTC). 

Lee remarked on how the rate cuts positively impact Bitcoin investment in an interview with Fox Business on July 31, saying:

“Bitcoin’s becoming increasingly a macrohedge for investors against things that could go wrong. Rate cuts are adding liquidity. Liquidity is pushing money into all these risk assets and also hedges, which is helping Bitcoin.”

Lee delivered a couple more general remarks about Bitcoin, which climbed back above the $10,000 mark earlier today. In terms of price, Lee thinks it is plausible for the coin to retake its all-time high by the end of the year.

He remarked:

“We don’t have a target for Bitcoin, but the prior high was $20,000. I think there’s a good possibility that Bitcoin reattains that high this year

Read in full https://cointelegraph.com/news/fundstrat-co-founder-tom-lee-us-fed-rate-cuts-are-helping-bitcoin

[pooya87]

“We don’t have a target for Bitcoin, but the prior high was $20,000. I think there’s a good possibility that Bitcoin reattains that high this year

he keeps lowering his expectations of bitcoin and it seems like he forgot to take a look at the charts again to see how the last time (2015) looked like with the slower rise at first which is what we have right now. it seems like he gets caught up in the short term drama a lot and then makes the emotional yet permabull predictions out of.
i am still waiting for the price to reach $40,000 by the end of 2018, the prediction he made in Nov 2017 when price was below $9k and was shooting up towards $20k.

[el kaka22]

he keeps lowering his expectations of bitcoin and it seems like he forgot to take a look at the charts again to see how the last time (2015) looked like with the slower rise at first which is what we have right now.

What is wrong with that ? For example, you plan for a vacation in Indonesia and on the event of earthquake, you will still keep on planning up ? After all, these are all speculation and you should not make your decisions of your life's all saving by listening to them but may risk at 10% or 25% based on your affordability. Speculators may keep increasing or lowering based on favoring factors but people will never complain when speculators increase their target price levels.

i am still waiting for the price to reach $40,000 by the end of 2018, the prediction he made in Nov 2017 when price was below $9k and was shooting up towards $20k.

I am not sure you may able to time-travel to 2018 but bitcoin price will definitely hit $40k. Again, with respect to bitcoin speculations, people may fail with time frame but definitely not with price levels.

[bbc.reporter]

“We don’t have a target for Bitcoin, but the prior high was $20,000. I think there’s a good possibility that Bitcoin reattains that high this year

he keeps lowering his expectations of bitcoin and it seems like he forgot to take a look at the charts again to see how the last time (2015) looked like with the slower rise at first which is what we have right now. it seems like he gets caught up in the short term drama a lot and then makes the emotional yet permabull predictions out of.
i am still waiting for the price to reach $40,000 by the end of 2018, the prediction he made in Nov 2017 when price was below $9k and was shooting up towards $20k.

I reckon that he is also shaking his head on this, his latest comment is not his normal style. However, is this a good sign or a bad one?

[gentlemand]

I reckon that he is also shaking his head on this, his latest comment is not his normal style. However, is this a good sign or a bad one?

I presume you are dating Tom Lee so why not ask him staring deep into his eyes over candlelight?

These legacy financial types will probably be more reluctant to make predictions about BTC if the wider markets are looking turbulent. It's easier when the big picture is steady. But that's when the chances of silly calls manifesting themselves increases. They should be upping rhetoric, not reining it in.

[bbc.reporter]

@gentlemand. I was asking because Tom Lee has been an indicator to go with the opposite since the beginning of 2018. I only wanted to know what my fellow Tom fans thought hehehe.

Also, what does upping rhetoric, not reigning it mean?

[bbc.reporter]

Tom the great permabull has given another piece of his wisdom. Thank you Tom, we shall hold you accountable if you are wrong again and post many words of hate and insults on you hehehe.



Fundstrat's Lee is not out of the bitcoin price prediction business. After last year's bullish call for BTC $25,000 didn't work out, Lee backed off from making price forecasts for a while. With the wind seemingly at its back, bitcoin could make a strong finish in 2019 similar to its record display in 2017, and Lee doesn't want to miss out. He tells Fox Business host Stuart Varney:

"I think it's going to be much higher by the end of the year and potentially at new all-time highs. I think anyone who wants to have a 2 percent or 1 percent allocation to bitcoin as a hedge against a lot of things that could go wrong it's a smart bet."

Read in full https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-could-break-through-to-a-new-high-in-2019-predicts-tom-lee/

[pooya87]

he keeps lowering his expectations of bitcoin and it seems like he forgot to take a look at the charts again to see how the last time (2015) looked like with the slower rise at first which is what we have right now.

What is wrong with that ? For example, you plan for a vacation in Indonesia and on the event of earthquake, you will still keep on planning up ? After all, these are all speculation and you should not make your decisions of your life's all saving by listening to them but may risk at 10% or 25% based on your affordability. Speculators may keep increasing or lowering based on favoring factors but people will never complain when speculators increase their target price levels.

it is true that it is speculation but it still has to be reasonable and have some logic behind it. for example if i keep saying price is going to fall down to $10 this year, that is also a "speculation" but without any logic, i would be randomly bullshitting. and that is what's wroth with that. Lee has been "speculating" unreasonable price rises during a time when it was clear that rise (specially that kind of rise) wasn't possible meaning during 2018 when the market entered bear mode and needed the bubble burst and correction.

and that works both ways, like Lee, there have been others who get caught up in a certain trend and fail to change with the market changes. for example there have been many who were "speculating" low unreasonable prices such as $1000 for bitcoin just because there has been a long drop last year.

[bbc.reporter]

I thought bitcoin was our safe haven for economic depressions. Is Tom Lee's statement also implying that if Trump collapses the American economy, bitcoin will also collapse? I shake my head.

Also, what is a generational buy?



Bitcoin Tends to Follow the S&P500, Says Lee

“The next big catalyst [for Bitcoin] is a decisive breakout in the equity markets,” he told CNBC’s Fast Money on Thursday. “Once equities break to an all-time high, Bitcoin becomes a risk-on asset.” For Lee, it seems clear: as stocks go high, Bitcoin follows.

The increased liquidity from a breakout in the equities market could propel Bitcoin to an all-time high, predicts Lee. As of now, the S&P’s all-time high is around 3,025. If it breaks this, Lee argues that it would be “bullish for Bitcoin.” His analysis is based on precedent: the best years for the S&P 500 have also coincided with the best years for Bitcoin.

The recent lull in Bitcoin’s price movements can also be explained in this way. Lee sees this same choppy market in equities also, which leads him to believe that the S&P 500 needs to move upward for Bitcoin to follow.

During this same segment, BKCM founder and CEO Brian Kelly told Fast Money that this is a “massive buying opportunity” for those looking to jump into Bitcoin since there is “too much money coming into this market.” He argues that “for the next six months” there is the opportunity for a ‘generational buy.’

Read in full https://beincrypto.com/fundstrats-tom-lee-says-that-bitcoin-and-sp-500-are-heading-towards-all-time-high/

[exstasie]

I thought bitcoin was our safe haven for economic depressions. Is Tom Lee's statement also implying that if Trump collapses the American economy, bitcoin will also collapse? I shake my head.

“The next big catalyst [for Bitcoin] is a decisive breakout in the equity markets,” he told CNBC’s Fast Money on Thursday. “Once equities break to an all-time high, Bitcoin becomes a risk-on asset.” For Lee, it seems clear: as stocks go high, Bitcoin follows.

The increased liquidity from a breakout in the equities market could propel Bitcoin to an all-time high, predicts Lee.

I'm with Tom Lee. As a risky/speculative asset, BTC benefits from exuberance in the equity markets. It works just like sector rotation for stocks. Eventually that increased market liquidity spills over into other speculative investments, especially those that are hot and riding a bull market like BTC.

And yeah, it goes both ways. If recession hits and equities crash, I think BTC will too.

Also, what is a generational buy?

It's another way of saying "the buy of a generation." A rare investment opportunity.

[bitgolden]

There is really barely any correlation between stocks and bitcoin that way. There is a correlation between stocks and economy of a country plus there is one correlation between economy of a country and bitcoin, which means somehow stocks and bitcoin are somehow related but know that its not completely related to each other. It has some other type of relevance to each other like bitcoin was created after the biggest bear market of the world has ever seen but that is about it.

Sometimes bitcoin goes up when stocks go down, sometimes bitcoin goes down when stocks go up, sometimes they go up together or down together. What bitcoin will do is dependent on couple dozen whales and that is it, not the market, not the public decision, just those whales wanting bitcoin to go one direction and doing it.