The Gambler's Fallacy (The key to unbiased gambling)

[mirakal]

What differentiates a good gambler from a bad gambler is the fact that the good gambler knows when to stop,while the bad gambler just wants more and more,and eventually he loses everything.

If that's what you think then you are  not thinking of becoming a successful gambler.
A good gambler for me knows how to win, and winning is not easy so factors you've mentioned are possess by a good gamblers.

It's all about self-control and psychology,not mathematics.

Both are important if you think of winning, some people just don't treat gambling as a complete entertainment, some are ambitious of winning.

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[maydna]

I understand this theory but,to oversimplify things a little bit,the more you gamble the bigger the chance of losing everything.
What differentiates a good gambler from a bad gambler is the fact that the good gambler knows when to stop,while the bad gambler just wants more and more,and eventually he loses everything.
It's all about self-control and psychology,not mathematics.

Well, only greed people will do that. Once you are a gambler just always avoiding the matter that you can't control your self and finding more and more profit and eventually keep losing because of chasing profit and that is a bad gambler. The fact that that kind of attitude makes them self worst if they are turning into addiction in gambling. Indeed, just be a good gambler and that is the real fallacy if you are that kind of gambler not gambling itself.

One piece of advice that I can offer in order make "unbiased gambling" easier, is to acknowledge the fact that the money you put in is already gone. For example, if I ever deposit: I imagine that I no longer own the money anymore, usually it makes it easier to accept loses if you already accept it.

But the problem, not all gamblers realize about the fact, especially when they are entering the gambling places. They forget to think about that because they enjoy the game, they spend the money, and that will make their money's gone. There is nothing we can do when we lose the money, and we could only accept and forget while we can come back in other days to play the game. That is why we need to make a limit on playing gambling.

[omonuyak]

What differentiates a good gambler from a bad gambler is the fact that the good gambler knows when to stop,while the bad gambler just wants more and more,and eventually he loses everything.

If that's what you think then you are  not thinking of becoming a successful gambler.
A good gambler for me knows how to win, and winning is not easy so factors you've mentioned are possess by a good gamblers.

It's all about self-control and psychology,not mathematics.

Both are important if you think of winning, some people just don't treat gambling as a complete entertainment, some are ambitious of winning.

Many people gambling, do it to  win and even if they are gambling for fun? It is in our intentions to win. My advice is for us to gamble with fun of it but desired to win in all our betting. If we are to continue in gambling we should try to remain positive and also motivate ourselves by making profit from our gambling.

[Aero Blue]

It does not matter the least if you are gambling for fun or pleasure. The end is always a win and a loss and many do prefer and worry about the win. The intensity of winning however is not really high when it comes to someone who is looking for fun. A big number of people do it to make quick money. Uncertainty is an inbuilt trait in gambling and to me, it is a risky investment. 

Yea I feel like a lot of people are just hoping for that extra $50, real quick. Thinking it's only once and that they'll win because they are lucky. In reality gambling isn't an investment, it's a form of entertainment. It's only entertainment if you look at it that way though, otherwise you will end up feeling frustrated and extremely disappointed in yourself. Despite the "only gamble what you are willing to lose" phrase, people still gamble ending up mad because they lost money.

[Questat]

It does not matter the least if you are gambling for fun or pleasure. The end is always a win and a loss and many do prefer and worry about the win. The intensity of winning however is not really high when it comes to someone who is looking for fun. A big number of people do it to make quick money. Uncertainty is an inbuilt trait in gambling and to me, it is a risky investment. 

Yea I feel like a lot of people are just hoping for that extra $50, real quick. Thinking it's only once and that they'll win because they are lucky. In reality gambling isn't an investment, it's a form of entertainment. It's only entertainment if you look at it that way though, otherwise you will end up feeling frustrated and extremely disappointed in yourself. Despite the "only gamble what you are willing to lose" phrase, people still gamble ending up mad because they lost money.

That is depending on your skills, if you have the skills, you can consider gambling as a form of investment, a gambler would only become successful if he can survive and be profitable in the long term. But of course, this does not count on roulette, dice, and other forms of luck based games as that house edge matters a lot in the run. One can become a successful sports bettors and that's appropriate to call an investment for him.

[Ucy]

It does not matter the least if you are gambling for fun or pleasure. The end is always a win and a loss and many do prefer and worry about the win. The intensity of winning however is not really high when it comes to someone who is looking for fun. A big number of people do it to make quick money. Uncertainty is an inbuilt trait in gambling and to me, it is a risky investment. 

Yea I feel like a lot of people are just hoping for that extra $50, real quick. Thinking it's only once and that they'll win because they are lucky. In reality gambling isn't an investment, it's a form of entertainment. It's only entertainment if you look at it that way though, otherwise you will end up feeling frustrated and extremely disappointed in yourself. Despite the "only gamble what you are willing to lose" phrase, people still gamble ending up mad because they lost money.

That is depending on your skills, if you have the skills, you can consider gambling as a form of investment, a gambler would only become successful if he can survive and be profitable in the long term. But of course, this does not count on roulette, dice, and other forms of luck based games as that house edge matters a lot in the run. One can become a successful sports bettors and that's appropriate to call an investment for him.

Just curious, have you seen skill-based gambers who earn consistently from skill-based gambling?
If you are a regular gambler and pay your bills through gambling, kindly reply to this post so we can learn how this is possible.

[Altero]

It does not matter the least if you are gambling for fun or pleasure. The end is always a win and a loss and many do prefer and worry about the win. The intensity of winning however is not really high when it comes to someone who is looking for fun. A big number of people do it to make quick money. Uncertainty is an inbuilt trait in gambling and to me, it is a risky investment. 

Yea I feel like a lot of people are just hoping for that extra $50, real quick. Thinking it's only once and that they'll win because they are lucky. In reality gambling isn't an investment, it's a form of entertainment. It's only entertainment if you look at it that way though, otherwise you will end up feeling frustrated and extremely disappointed in yourself. Despite the "only gamble what you are willing to lose" phrase, people still gamble ending up mad because they lost money.

Gambling is more of an entertainment that needs to be enjoyed and make fun. Even if you're lucky or not the time you gamble because you lose, do not take it seriously. You won't be mad in the first place if you only gamble the amount you can afford to lose. Gambling isn't bad in general, as long as we only gamble for fun.

We can blame those people who consider this a sort of living and they are in a casino all-day and gambling isn't doing fun for them but they take it seriously. It actually there is money inside casinos, only if they have skills and deep knowledge in gambling or they have luck though.

[Botnake]

It does not matter the least if you are gambling for fun or pleasure. The end is always a win and a loss and many do prefer and worry about the win. The intensity of winning however is not really high when it comes to someone who is looking for fun. A big number of people do it to make quick money. Uncertainty is an inbuilt trait in gambling and to me, it is a risky investment. 

Yea I feel like a lot of people are just hoping for that extra $50, real quick. Thinking it's only once and that they'll win because they are lucky. In reality gambling isn't an investment, it's a form of entertainment. It's only entertainment if you look at it that way though, otherwise you will end up feeling frustrated and extremely disappointed in yourself. Despite the "only gamble what you are willing to lose" phrase, people still gamble ending up mad because they lost money.

Gambling is more of an entertainment that needs to be enjoyed and make fun. Even if you're lucky or not the time you gamble because you lose, do not take it seriously. You won't be mad in the first place if you only gamble the amount you can afford to lose. Gambling isn't bad in general, as long as we only gamble for fun.

We can blame those people who consider this a sort of living and they are in a casino all-day and gambling isn't doing fun for them but they take it seriously. It actually there is money inside casinos, only if they have skills and deep knowledge in gambling or they have luck though.

We should blame them if they aren't making money yet, they think they can make a living in gambling, that's what you called stupid thinking and that's what makes casino richer.

[ethereumhunter]

It does not matter the least if you are gambling for fun or pleasure. The end is always a win and a loss and many do prefer and worry about the win. The intensity of winning however is not really high when it comes to someone who is looking for fun. A big number of people do it to make quick money. Uncertainty is an inbuilt trait in gambling and to me, it is a risky investment. 

Yea I feel like a lot of people are just hoping for that extra $50, real quick. Thinking it's only once and that they'll win because they are lucky. In reality gambling isn't an investment, it's a form of entertainment. It's only entertainment if you look at it that way though, otherwise you will end up feeling frustrated and extremely disappointed in yourself. Despite the "only gamble what you are willing to lose" phrase, people still gamble ending up mad because they lost money.

Gambling is more of an entertainment that needs to be enjoyed and make fun. Even if you're lucky or not the time you gamble because you lose, do not take it seriously. You won't be mad in the first place if you only gamble the amount you can afford to lose. Gambling isn't bad in general, as long as we only gamble for fun.

We can blame those people who consider this a sort of living and they are in a casino all-day and gambling isn't doing fun for them but they take it seriously. It actually there is money inside casinos, only if they have skills and deep knowledge in gambling or they have luck though.

But I guess they won't listen to us because they will still continue playing gambling no matter if they will lose more money. That is hard to explain to them because all they want to do is make money from gambling. They will play all day long without thinking about the risk, and that is difficult to make a living from gambling.

[deisik]

What makes you say that humans are very bad at gambling?

He obviously refers to gambling as an activity involving playing games based on luck (like dice)

And humans are bad at this type of gambling because they are just bad at probabilities. For example, people easily confuse plausibility for probability, i.e. they erroneously believe that adding more details about something necessarily makes it more probable, while in actuality it only makes it more plausible (read, more easily believable).

Regarding your examples specifically, they are not reflecting the law of small numbers, and I could go so far as to even say they have nothing to do with gambling as such. People became able to cross the oceans after they had discovered the power of the keel. Good luck to you trying to cross an ocean on oars alone (as that would be gambling)

[audaciousbeing]

The part of using things to an advantage by thinking every situation or event is independent of the previous one or the future one is either difficult or impossible to phantom. The reason is simple. There is no way that things are not connected. Even in the mathematical calculation of odds and other strategies of gambling especially the martingale model, its about trend and historical analysis which is what is being relied upon. Now how exactly is a site going to be adjudged fair if only losing streak is what is happening and there is no comparison to what happen in the previous throw since every event is taken independently?

[TheCoinGrabber]

Yes, it's the "it's about to blow" attitude towards lotto that we often see when every time the jackpot is raised. Each time it's not won, people become even more sure it's going to be on the next draw.

I think the only games where previous draws matter is cards since it's being drawn from the same deck. Maybe bingo as well since it's just a race to get the most Xs. Everything else, lotto, dice, roulette, each spin, roll and throw have no relation with each other.

We're definitely not bad at gambling.

We are risk-takers but we are not exactly good at analyzing probability. We are not good with extremely small or large numbers. Adding to your own evolutionary claim, we never had to deal with such numbers in the wild which is why we aren't hardwired to easily understand them. To many hunter-gatherers anything above 20 is "too many".

[omonuyak]

What differentiates a good gambler from a bad gambler is the fact that the good gambler knows when to stop,while the bad gambler just wants more and more,and eventually he loses everything.

If that's what you think then you are  not thinking of becoming a successful gambler.
A good gambler for me knows how to win, and winning is not easy so factors you've mentioned are possess by a good gamblers.

It's all about self-control and psychology,not mathematics.

Both are important if you think of winning, some people just don't treat gambling as a complete entertainment, some are ambitious of winning.

Many people gambling, do it to  win and even if they are gambling for fun? It is in our intentions to win. My advice is for us to gamble with fun of it but desired to win in all our betting. If we are to continue in gambling we should try to remain positive and also motivate ourselves by making profit from our gambling.

It does not matter the least if you are gambling for fun or pleasure. The end is always a win and a loss and many do prefer and worry about the win. The intensity of winning however is not really high when it comes to someone who is looking for fun. A big number of people do it to make quick money. Uncertainty is an inbuilt trait in gambling and to me, it is a risky investment. 

Gambling is investments just that it is a very risky one and since one cannot really win much because of the odd I think we should invest as little as we can so that when you lose you can take it as it is. In the office yesterday during break I began to gambling online in the present of my colleague and when I was losing we began to laugh over it and we find fun in it because the amount involved is small. Investing what you can not really afford to lose is risky taking too high!

[Sharon121212]

I somehow agree with what you said that "Humans are naturally very bad at gambling". I think what the op is trying to say is that, we are naturally bad at gambling but through learning and practices, we improve and become better. We don't actually born good at gambling. We learn and improve through process. And during that process, we also learn to make better decision to avoid losses.

There is no perfection to gambling no matter your years of experience a new guy can come in a get it right while you flop the ways to get gambling perfect this days is by cheating for example hacking system.
While gambling I keep at the back of my mind that the owners of this gambling site never opened the site for them to run at a loss and I would stop feeling as if they owe me or it's my right to win every time

[deisik]

According to the statistics you have more chances to get 5heads and 5tails than getting 0heads and 10tails when you flip 10times a coin. Do you agree with that? Yes or no?

You don't specify one important condition. More specifically, you don't specify the exact order in which we are going to see 5 heads and 5 tails. If we are to see them in an arbitrary order, i.e. just 5 heads and 5 tails in 10 flips, then you are correct. Otherwise, if you actually mean a specific order (like HTHTHTHTHT), then the probability of seeing this sequence is the same as seeing 0 heads and 10 tails in any order (which would always be TTTTTTTTTT, of course) as outcomes are independent of each other. I guess this is the source of your confusion

Or maybe you mean something else

[omonuyak]

"Doubles down on loses" has never been the best way to gamble. I have tried this in both betting and dice but it loses money faster than any other gambling strategies. I think we just need to accept the fact that gambling should be played without putting mind for any strategy as in this it is always easy to win than losing as you only depend on your luck.

[Saint-loup]

According to the statistics you have more chances to get 5heads and 5tails than getting 0heads and 10tails when you flip 10times a coin. Do you agree with that? Yes or no?

You don't specify one important condition. More specifically, you don't specify the exact order in which we are going to see 5 heads and 5 tails. If we are to see them in an arbitrary order, i.e. just 5 heads and 5 tails in 10 flips, then you are correct. Otherwise, if you actually mean a specific order (like HTHTHTHTHT), then the probability of seeing this sequence is the same as seeing 0 heads and 10 tails in any order (which would always be TTTTTTTTTT, of course) as outcomes are independent of each other. I guess this is the source of your confusion

Or maybe you mean something else

Yes I'm talking about observed statistics, not theorical "demonstrations".
So are you really sure HTHTHTHTHT is not more likely to happen than TTTTTTTTTT ? Do you have real statistics about that?
The facts show you're more likely to get 5 heads and 5 tails than getting 0 heads and 10tails, it's not some mathematics from me, it's the facts.

[deisik]

So are you sure HTHTHTHTHT is not more likely to happen than TTTTTTTTTT ? Do you have real statistics about that?

The probabilities are the same

Statistics refer to past data, and technically they can be any, especially if the sample size is small (the infamous law of small numbers). Probabilities, on other hand, refer to future outcomes, i.e. they do not exist for what has already occurred (but they can be obtained from the past data, given a large enough sample). So in terms of probabilities HTHTHTHTHT is as likely as TTTTTTTTTT (or any other combination of heads and tails), at least as long as it is 50/50 for both tails and heads. Simply speaking, it is exactly about mathematics, not actual outcomes (which you seem to imply here by "facts"). Otherwise, the odds are not 50/50. It is an accounting identity of sorts, which you can't possibly get around

I don't understand what this chart means

[Saint-loup]

So are you sure HTHTHTHTHT is not more likely to happen than TTTTTTTTTT ? Do you have real statistics about that?

The probabilities are the same

Statistics refer to past data, and technically they can be any, especially if the sample size is small (the infamous law of small numbers). Probabilities, on other hand, refer to future outcomes, i.e. they do not exist for what has already occurred (but can be obtained from the past data, given large enough sample). So in terms of probabilities HTHTHTHTHT is as likely as TTTTTTTTTT. Simply speaking, it is exactly about mathematics, not actual outcomes (which you seem to mean by "facts" here)

For 4 flips there are 2^4=16 possible combinations
6 have 2heads and 2tails
4 have 1heads and 3tails
4 have 3heads and 1tails
1 has 0heads and 4tails
1 has 4heads and 0tails  

HHHH
HHHT
HHTH
HHTT
HTHH
HTHT
HTTH
HTTT
THHH
THHT
THTH
THTT
TTHH
TTHT
TTTH
TTTT

So if you got already 2heads you have 3chances on 4 to get one tail in the next 2 flips.

HHHH
HHHT
HHTH
HHTT

[deisik]

So if you got already 2heads you have 3chances on 4 to get one tail in the next 2 flips.

HHHH
HHHT
HHTH
HHTT

In the next 2 flips your chances to get 1 tail are the same as to get 1 head and equal to 0.5. You have 4 possible outcomes with 2 of them having 1 tail - HT, TH (the other two being HH and TT). The outcome TT has 2 tails, while its probability is the same as for 2 heads (HH) and equal to 0.25. In other words, 2 tails is a different outcome than 1 tail in 2 flips. Basically, you are trying to exploit the tendency or weakness of human beings to answer a similar but different question, i.e. not the one asked (an easier one, for the record)

You may want to try again

I disagree with that if you bet 20times on the same side and you lose, the odds are not the same for the next flip (if the flips are really random).
It doesn't mean you'll have 100% chances to win but you'll have more than 50% chances to win

You will have a hard time to prove that unless you implicitly assume the outcomes are not independent while the odds are changing in the process