25btc/block soon?

[pandemic]

When are we going to be seeing 25btc/block? I can only imagine that the difficulty is going to go through the floor when that happens.

[DeathAndTaxes]

When are we going to be seeing 25btc/block? I can only imagine that the difficulty is going to go through the floor when that happens.

The change will occur somewhere in Dec 2012.  The exact date will vary depending on average block time.

[Meni Rosenfeld]

I can only imagine that the difficulty is going to go through the floor when that happens.

My estimate is that the difficulty will decrease by about 20%.

[sadpandatech]

I can only imagine that the difficulty is going to go through the floor when that happens.

My estimate is that the difficulty will decrease by about 20%.

   Its really hard to say. One big variable to add into the equation will be how much fpga hashing power is in the system by then. It's probably safe to say that a good majority of those mining from a profit/loss perspective will have switched over to fpga by then.  Time will tell.

  If we're estimating, I would say difficulty will be almost double what it is now and price will be $1.50 or less. Unless we have some heavy market intervention between now and then.

[ElectricMucus]

  If we're estimating, I would say difficulty will be almost double what it is now and price will be $1.50 or less. Unless we have some heavy market intervention between now and then.

Wouldn't work out, if people were to invest that amount of fpga hashing power it would cost significantly more than GPU rigs. 2-3 times at least.

People wouldn't invest if the ROI is several years.

[DeathAndTaxes]

I can only imagine that the difficulty is going to go through the floor when that happens.

My estimate is that the difficulty will decrease by about 20%.

   Its really hard to say. One big variable to add into the equation will be how much fpga hashing power is in the system by then. It's probably safe to say that a good majority of those mining from a profit/loss perspective will have switched over to fpga by then.  Time will tell.

  If we're estimating, I would say difficulty will be almost double what it is now and price will be $1.50 or less. Unless we have some heavy market intervention between now and then.

Unless that butterfly scam is actually legit I don't see FPGA displacing GPU that fast.  I also don't think you will see revenue per MH fall by a factor of 4x in one year there are too many miners on inefficient rigs to sustain that.

To both replace GPU and double the network would require ~16TH of FPGA power.  At $2 per MH thats $36 million in capital investment.  While FPGA will slowly replace GPU and the revenue per MH will slowly fall (due to higher efficiencies) I think your timeline is way too optimistic.  Hell even the most optimistic FPGA producer would agree.

[Littleshop]

All FPGA does is allow people with expensive electricity to mine.  Why would all of the people who have it for free (and there are a lot) pay for more expensive and single purpose FPGA hardware?  People with 9 cent KWh electricity have little incentive at the current time to switch as the payoff is very long. 

[ElectricMucus]

All FPGA does is allow people with expensive electricity to mine.  Why would all of the people who have it for free (and there are a lot) pay for more expensive and single purpose FPGA hardware?  People with 9 cent KWh electricity have little incentive at the current time to switch as the payoff is very long.  

Well it still costs about 1.5 USD with the most efficient gpus to mine a bitcoin at 9 cents.
So that's only half the profit.

Also free electricity == stolen electricity no matter how you slice it.

[DeathAndTaxes]

All FPGA does is allow people with expensive electricity to mine.  Why would all of the people who have it for free (and there are a lot) pay for more expensive and single purpose FPGA hardware?  People with 9 cent KWh electricity have little incentive at the current time to switch as the payoff is very long. 

It all depends on what you consider "expensive".  At current difficulty and a 2MH/W (at the wall) rig it takes about 14.2 kWh to produce a BTC.


$0.08 per kWh - $1.15 per BTC
$0.10 per kWh - $1.43 per BTC
$0.12 per kWh - $1.72 per BTC
$0.15 per kWh - $2.15 per BTC
$0.20 per kWh - $2.86 per BTC
$0.25 per kWh - $3.58 per BTC
$0.30 per kWh - $4.29 per BTC
$0.40   per kWh - $5.73 per BTC

So while even w/ cheap rigs and cheap electricity it might makes sense to keep them running it doesn't make much sense to expand rigs unless they are FGPA.  FPGA makes power less of a factor.
The electrical cost @ $0.08 per kWh is $0.11 per BTC and at $0.40 per kWh is $0.57 per BTC.  It tends to level the playing field.

[stick_theman]

Also depends on how much bitcoin will cost, a lot of factors.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Also depends on how much bitcoin will cost, a lot of factors.

The price of a bitcoin in nominal terms has no relevence.  What matters it (price / difficulty) with more efficient miners that will fall.  With less efficient miners that will rise.  Having a FPGA makes you the most efficient (in terms of kWh -> $$$) thus you benefit form other miner's inefficiency (they keep difficulty adjusted price high).  On the other hand if you are inefficient then as more people become more and more efficient the network efficiency rises and you get left behind.

[sadpandatech]

Also depends on how much bitcoin will cost, a lot of factors.

The price of a bitcoin in nominal terms has no relevence.  What matters it (price / difficulty) with more efficient miners that will fall.  With less efficient miners that will rise.  Having a FPGA makes you the most efficient (in terms of kWh -> $$$) thus you benefit form other miner's inefficiency (they keep difficulty adjusted price high).  On the other hand if you are inefficient then as more people become more and more efficient the network efficiency rises and you get left behind.

 

  I'm a bit too pressed for time to explain myself much better. But exactly what you are saying except from the point of view that my estimation is not one of optimism for FPGA but is of the less optimistic view of the inefficient miner's ability to maintain price. That 'fast nickel beats a slow dime' mentality is a tough habit to beat...

[sadpandatech]

If we're estimating, I would say difficulty will be almost double what it is now and price will be $1.50 or less. Unless we have some heavy market intervention between now and then.

There are as many predictions about the future price of Bitcoin as there are people making them.

  Well, thank you kindly for adding that most thought provoking and insightful apropos to the discussion..

[ovidiusoft]

Also free electricity == stolen electricity no matter how you slice it.

1. Already paid for electricity.
2. Photovoltaic cells.
3. Wind power micro-generators.
4. I believe there are micro-generators for flowing water too.

Just because you don't have it, it doesn't mean free electricity doesn't exist.

[ElectricMucus]

Also free electricity == stolen electricity no matter how you slice it.

1. Already paid for electricity.
2. Photovoltaic cells.
3. Wind power micro-generators.
4. I believe there are micro-generators for flowing water too.

Just because you don't have it, it doesn't mean free electricity doesn't exist.

1. Limited amount, and still against the contract in most cases hence still stolen.
2-4. Initial costs & maintenance, zero sum game without govt. sponsoring

[Gabi]

Also free electricity == stolen electricity no matter how you slice it.

1. Already paid for electricity.
2. Photovoltaic cells.
3. Wind power micro-generators.
4. I believe there are micro-generators for flowing water too.

Just because you don't have it, it doesn't mean free electricity doesn't exist.

2-3-4
-You have to buy them and they aren't cheap
-You coul sell the electricity maybe for more

[ovidiusoft]

1. Limited amount, and still against the contract in most cases hence still stolen.

If you can read romanian, I'll send you a scanned copy of my datacenter contracts. I dare you to say it to my face that I steal electricity. BTW, the manager of one of the datacenters knows I'm running CPU mining full load on the machines there.

2-4. Initial costs & maintenance, zero sum game without govt. sponsoring

I have an acquaintance who has a micro wind turbine, he recovered the money in a little more than 3 years. He now has free electricity. No government sponsoring. Is he stealing too?

Or are you trolling out of habit?

[nrd525]

I use an electric heater in my room in the winter.  Instead I could heat it with a couple GPUs.  Ideally I'd have a temperature sensor so it would only mine bitcoins when my room was cold =)

[ovidiusoft]

-You coul sell the electricity maybe for more

In here, you can't (not easily, anyway). In other countries, you could simply send it to the network and get it back when you need it, but not in Romania. So if you make it, you need to use it (or to store it, but that's another ball game). I can't think of a better use than mining

[ElectricMucus]

Yeah whatever.

In Soviet Russia electricity steals you