IntroductionIn continuation of my last thread on the
Gambler's Fallacy I am writing this thread to explain more specifically why "strategic" methods
don't work. We've all heard of and seen these methods float around forums for years, let's end that. Let people have fun, and don't trick them into thinking they have better odds using a "method".
DefinitionThe principle of the impossibility of a gambling system is a concept in probability. It states that in a random sequence, the methodical selection of subsequences does not change the probability of specific elements.
A Simple ExampleA sequence of fair coin tosses produces equal and independent 50/50 chances for heads and tails.
Let's take a series of coin flips (
h = heads,
t = tails,
x = next flip):
{A}: H T H H H T X
{B}: T T T T T T X
Given series {A} and series {B} (assuming a fair coin), the odds that "X" becomes a "T" (or tails) is 50%.
WhyAs a mathematical consequence of
computability theory, more complicated betting strategies (such as a martingale) also cannot alter the odds in the
long run.
What is considered a "method"A simple system of betting on heads every 3rd, 7th, or 21st toss, etc., does not change the odds of winning in the long run. This includes all popular methods like martingale, etc. (Remember we are talking about things like dice rolls and coin tosses here, in contrast to something like poker which requires some level of skill)
In conclusionJust gamble how you want to, don't feel bad because you aren't missing out on anything. Often times, methods can end up taking more of your money because of the house edge. Even though a lot of people seem to understand that methods don't change your odds, I've still seen plenty of others who believe they work. Please never buy methods, I've seen it happen too many times.
Further reading:
Wikipedia Page |
In-depth Thesis