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Author Topic: Impossibility of a gambling system (Why methods don't work)  (Read 1532 times)
Aero Blue (OP)
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July 21, 2019, 01:37:33 AM
 #1

Introduction

In continuation of my last thread on the Gambler's Fallacy I am writing this thread to explain more specifically why "strategic" methods don't work. We've all heard of and seen these methods float around forums for years, let's end that. Let people have fun, and don't trick them into thinking they have better odds using a "method".



Definition

The principle of the impossibility of a gambling system is a concept in probability. It states that in a random sequence, the methodical selection of subsequences does not change the probability of specific elements.



A Simple Example

A sequence of fair coin tosses produces equal and independent 50/50 chances for heads and tails.

Let's take a series of coin flips (h = heads, t = tails, x = next flip):

     {A}: H T H H H T X

     {B}: T T T T T T X

Given series {A} and series {B} (assuming a fair coin), the odds that "X" becomes a "T" (or tails) is 50%.



Why

As a mathematical consequence of computability theory, more complicated betting strategies (such as a martingale) also cannot alter the odds in the long run.



What is considered a "method"

A simple system of betting on heads every 3rd, 7th, or 21st toss, etc., does not change the odds of winning in the long run. This includes all popular methods like martingale, etc. (Remember we are talking about things like dice rolls and coin tosses here, in contrast to something like poker which requires some level of skill)



In conclusion

Just gamble how you want to, don't feel bad because you aren't missing out on anything. Often times, methods can end up taking more of your money because of the house edge. Even though a lot of people seem to understand that methods don't change your odds, I've still seen plenty of others who believe they work. Please never buy methods, I've seen it happen too many times.


Further reading:

Wikipedia Page | In-depth Thesis

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July 21, 2019, 01:56:28 AM
 #2

I have met a lot of people who like to gamble and that's cool but a majority of them say they "know the secret" they can "beat the system" it's wild for so many people to think they can edge out the house or there is a system that hasn't been figured out and blocked yet.

Honestly if you're looking for odd's martingale roulette could be it and just always bet on one color but make sure you have a hell of a large bankroll to rock it.

Actually had tried to make use of martingale with roulette which only bets with one color then increases 100% if bets lost. I thought making money is easier with martingale with roulette than dice but when theres a color train it did bust up all of my balance.Majority knows that theres no magic or exploiting gambling sites and make money but this is an impossible thing.

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July 21, 2019, 02:14:22 AM
 #3

And that is why martingale is not really effective, as the longer you play with this system the odds grow overtime. If you employ strategy and have successes in the beginning, before get out and exit while you can and don't feel confident that you have caught the 'holy grail' of strategies. Control is the key is you wanted to win using martingale (or any variations of it).

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July 21, 2019, 02:35:13 AM
 #4

I have met a lot of people who like to gamble and that's cool but a majority of them say they "know the secret" they can "beat the system" it's wild for so many people to think they can edge out the house or there is a system that hasn't been figured out and blocked yet.

Honestly if you're looking for odd's martingale roulette could be it and just always bet on one color but make sure you have a hell of a large bankroll to rock it.

Actually had tried to make use of martingale with roulette which only bets with one color then increases 100% if bets lost. I thought making money is easier with martingale with roulette than dice but when theres a color train it did bust up all of my balance.Majority knows that theres no magic or exploiting gambling sites and make money but this is an impossible thing.

The martingale is probably one of the most known and most popular betting methods of all time.

Just for a simple example of the outcomes of using martingale:

Lets say you have 100$ (for simplicity), only doubling 100% on a loss (50 / 50 coin-flip), doing this until you hit 200$ or bust.

You would have a 50% chance of doubling your money (+100$) and 50% chance of losing everything (-100$). This gets a lot worse when you start to look at house edge, hence the house always wins phrase.

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July 21, 2019, 04:24:12 AM
 #5

<.....>
The martingale is probably one of the most known and most popular betting methods of all time.
Well, martingale strategy is usually riskier although it is well known. I had been here in gambling discussion for almost a year looking and searching strategies and ideas but it seems all thought I had found that every house edge of gambling platform never been defeat and can't apply the same method and I think they have different script. Indeed, the fact is gambling is for fun and you can never chase money on it if you are regular gamblers and luck is on you much better.









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July 21, 2019, 04:50:34 AM
 #6

<.....>
The martingale is probably one of the most known and most popular betting methods of all time.
Well, martingale strategy is usually riskier although it is well known. I had been here in gambling discussion for almost a year looking and searching strategies and ideas but it seems all thought I had found that every house edge of gambling platform never been defeat and can't apply the same method and I think they have different script. Indeed, the fact is gambling is for fun and you can never chase money on it if you are regular gamblers and luck is on you much better.
Marginale system is well known because it is very simple and straightforward. But mathematically it has no sense, if probability to win is 50%. So I agree, don't be mad, play for the entertainment, have fun.

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July 21, 2019, 05:59:01 AM
 #7

There's no "gambling system",when it comes to dice sites and flipping coins.Everything is just pure luck.
The only gambling game,where you can apply systems and strategies is poker and even in poker,the amount of luck needed for success is still significant.

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July 21, 2019, 07:11:27 AM
 #8

There is no working strategy in gambling that is why people creating many strategies and saying that it will work and it might worked.

but this is nothing more than luck if the strategies we are using working for us and only for very short time.









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July 21, 2019, 07:46:36 AM
 #9

If a specific method works or will work in gambling then no casino or website will be established. It purely depends on your luck to win or not. Even mathematicians can't or even tried to beat a gambling system.
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July 21, 2019, 07:59:27 AM
 #10

Gambling systems never work in the long run and everyone are aware of that, but this in no way means that they are useless. They help in gaining profits in the short term if luck sides with you.

They also help in managing your bankroll more effectively. Among these methods, my favorite is the Oscar's grind since it helps my bankroll last longer.

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July 21, 2019, 08:50:11 AM
 #11

There is no working strategy in gambling that is why people creating many strategies and saying that it will work and it might worked.

if there is no working strategy then why whats the point of creating many strategies ? whats bad is that they claim that its working and there are some that sells thier strategy  .  there are also strategies that became popular but why did they became so popular if they arent  working  ?  the truth is that they work but they dont have the magic to give you win streaks   . they only work a little and the rest will depend on you on how you manage your self  .
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July 21, 2019, 12:54:57 PM
 #12

Sometimes these people that are saying that they can beat the game with certain methods they just want to boast about it because they got so much lucky in using such method but in reality, it is just a coincidence they are winning I using them, And some just want people to buy their method or want to scam other people that they can play for them in a method that they learned, But this is just fraud because there is no such method to really beat the house edge I experience it first hand I have tried every method and sometimes made my own pattern in playing the game and nothing just wok out for me.
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July 21, 2019, 01:09:06 PM
 #13

I am winning more bets when I'm playing without rules or methods than playing, I play using my hunch and enjoying everybet and I did not notice that my winnings are adding up it happens several times, I believe it's more fun and sometimes if you just have some fun and play with your hunch.

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July 21, 2019, 02:00:10 PM
 #14

They say math is absolute. Indeed it is. And when we talk of dice rolls and coin tosses, the math will tell you that there is not a single strategy that can be developed out of it as regards the outcome. This is pure gambling. You cannot use anything or summon no one but luck.

But perhaps you can count on betting on the inside after 10 successive rolls with an outside outcome. That is one "method" I am using. But then again you could end up rolling 10 more times and it is always outside that comes out. If that happens, you just have to get out and accept that luck is not on your side. 

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July 21, 2019, 02:35:22 PM
 #15

The reason why methods don't work is because you are out of luck. Most of the gambling is based on luck and one needs a very good luck to earn a fortune in gambling.
There are some strategies such as the methods but even that requires luck since many people lose their money despite applying the strategies.

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arpon11
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July 21, 2019, 02:56:08 PM
 #16

And that is why martingale is not really effective, as the longer you play with this system the odds grow overtime. If you employ strategy and have successes in the beginning, before get out and exit while you can and don't feel confident that you have caught the 'holy grail' of strategies. Control is the key is you wanted to win using martingale (or any variations of it).
I agree with op that there is no any gambling strategies that really works and we do need strong understanding of this fact in other not to continue thinking that we are going to hit it big through one secret that only us know and others did not know. The martingale strategy you mentioned did not work and it makes me lose huge amount of money about three weeks ago when I tried to test it for the first time. I conclude within myself that there is no secret that works but only luck that may makes you to win in gambling and that means gambling is for fun and not hit big.
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July 21, 2019, 03:15:21 PM
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And that is why martingale is not really effective, as the longer you play with this system the odds grow overtime. If you employ strategy and have successes in the beginning, before get out and exit while you can and don't feel confident that you have caught the 'holy grail' of strategies. Control is the key is you wanted to win using martingale (or any variations of it).
I agree with op that there is no any gambling strategies that really works and we do need strong understanding of this fact in other not to continue thinking that we are going to hit it big through one secret that only us know and others did not know. The martingale strategy you mentioned did not work and it makes me lose huge amount of money about three weeks ago when I tried to test it for the first time. I conclude within myself that there is no secret that works but only luck that may makes you to win in gambling and that means gambling is for fun and not hit big.

Yea that's what's so crazy about it, even when you "know" methods don't work, you can still sometimes convince yourself that it does. I still have a lot of trouble understanding exactly how the math works, just because the sheer scale. Statistics is such a fascinating subject, especially when gambling is involved.

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July 21, 2019, 03:38:16 PM
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You went through so much thinking and trouble when it all boils down to a simple fact: If there was a method to have a sure win (at least on average) it'd be seen as a flaw and immediately patched up by the operator.
I can't deny the possibility that some loopholes could appear in new games that were not tested before, but the games are usually too simple mathematically to have any overlooked flaw.
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July 21, 2019, 03:58:18 PM
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It's a given fact and proven that no method works, you can win once but you cannot win every time, so why not just allocate funds relax and play the game, without forcing yourself to win in every bet, you'll not only going to enjoy it but you will have confidence in your ability to stop when it's time to stop.

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July 21, 2019, 04:56:46 PM
 #20

I stopped applying methods or anything that can give me a so-called winning edge because honestly, it will not come, you will just go and chase your losses, you will just keep adding more funds to your bet in the hope that you can regain what you have lost, but unfortunately that's not going to work, so instead of having fun you will end up dissatisfied.

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