The peak, how it is determined?

[incombit]

This question is linked is with the following thread I started.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5167744

Yes, it's clear for me now that one of the main factors what it decides the Bitcoin price is demand.
So, this is a second part of my question…

Than using it as a currency, most majorities of people take advantages of Bitcoins as a trading asset.  Under that point of view, simply, if the trader wants to earn profit, the price must go up.
 
Let’s suppose a pump… $10,000 -> $20,000 -> $25,000 -> $32,000 -> $44,000 -> $52,000

What’s the peak?

The peak decides by the moment what? More people assume that “there won’t be a pump further”. At the moment, people stop buying Bitcoins, demand reduces and price gets down…

So, my question is,

Are there some "special" circumstances assisting people to think like that (there won’t be a pump further)?

[1715345568]

1715345568

[1715345568]

1715345568

[1715345568]

1715345568

[YuginKadoya]

The most analytical analysis is determined with the movement of the preview of Bitcoin and not because of the traders that profits if the past all-time high of Bitcoin was $20,000 USD back then the peak can be closer to that All-time high, Well the peak is still undetermined because there might something happen with Bitcoin and there might be negative news and something might go wrong with any issue involving it, But we can determine the peak by looking back on the previews ATH, well I guess the closest price we may land is $40,000 USD to $50,000 USD.

[Decimation]

The most analytical analysis is determined with the movement of the preview of Bitcoin and not because of the traders that profits if the past all-time high of Bitcoin was $20,000 USD back then the peak can be closer to that All-time high, Well the peak is still undetermined because there might something happen with Bitcoin and there might be negative news and something might go wrong with any issue involving it, But we can determine the peak by looking back on the previews ATH, well I guess the closest price we may land is $40,000 USD to $50,000 USD.

The peak is determined by pure speculation. Flip a coin, heads say it's $20.000, tails says it's $60.000. While there are some indicators, no one really knows, especially with something was volatile as Bitcoin is. The news is certainly a factor though, I completely agree with you there.

[gentlemand]

No one knows until it's in the rear view mirror. You can certainly sense the hysteria in the air at the time but if you're balls deep in it you're expecting more hysteria on top of it.

For myself I knew 2017 was done when I guy I knew called out of nowhere and wanted permission to buy $3 XRP. He was the dumbest money imaginable and that's always the last to arrive and the first to get fucked.

Hardly anyone times the peak and the price people pine over for years afterwards was probably achieved by about 5-10 people on the entire planet so it's a pretty meaningless figure.

[Artemis3]

Than using it as a currency, most majorities of people take advantages of Bitcoins as a trading asset.  Under that point of view, simply, if the trader wants to earn profit, the price must go up.
 
Let’s suppose a pump… $10,000 -> $20,000 -> $25,000 -> $32,000 -> $44,000 -> $52,000

What’s the peak?

The peak decides by the moment what? More people assume that “there won’t be a pump further”. At the moment, people stop buying Bitcoins, demand reduces and price gets down…

So, my question is,

Are there some "special" circumstances assisting people to think like that (there won’t be a pump further)?

Indeed no one knows the peak until after the fact, otherwise all traders would be rich, but in reality only about 10% manage to hit it right...

Obviously the peak is a point where it didn't go further and then started going down. Doesn't matter if there are other peaks later, of lesser or greater magnitude. Just like mountains, each have their own peak, regardless of other mountains being taller or smaller.

Since you stopped at 52 lets assume 50 comes next, then 40, etc. 52 was the peak in that period. Doesn't matter if later goes back up to 60, that's yet another peak if it doesn't go further up.

So its just a way for naming an event after the fact. There are also valleys...

[Naida_BR]

This question is linked is with the following thread I started.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5167744

Yes, it's clear for me now that one of the main factors what it decides the Bitcoin price is demand.
So, this is a second part of my question…

Than using it as a currency, most majorities of people take advantages of Bitcoins as a trading asset.  Under that point of view, simply, if the trader wants to earn profit, the price must go up.
 
Let’s suppose a pump… $10,000 -> $20,000 -> $25,000 -> $32,000 -> $44,000 -> $52,000

What’s the peak?

The peak decides by the moment what? More people assume that “there won’t be a pump further”. At the moment, people stop buying Bitcoins, demand reduces and price gets down…

So, my question is,

Are there some "special" circumstances assisting people to think like that (there won’t be a pump further)?

The peak is decided by a few people (the whales) who decide if they reach their profit target or not.
This is the reason why I think that Bitcoin is not so decentralized... As its price is controlled the whole chain is controlled and it losses its decentralized feature.

[Theb]

People setting up a target price farther then its current price simply doesn't know what he is talking about, even if he thrown in a lot of analysis and good explanation it simply doesn't make it much more accurate, why? Because unlike other markets the demand can shift in a faster pace compared to what we normally used to. One minute its going up 500 points and the next 10 minutes you will see its losing 250$ (or more) of its value, you may never know when the whales or a group of traders will start offloading their position at a certain value.

[figmentofmyass]

Let’s suppose a pump… $10,000 -> $20,000 -> $25,000 -> $32,000 -> $44,000 -> $52,000

What’s the peak?

The peak decides by the moment what? More people assume that “there won’t be a pump further”. At the moment, people stop buying Bitcoins, demand reduces and price gets down…

So, my question is,

Are there some "special" circumstances assisting people to think like that (there won’t be a pump further)?

it's not about what people think will happen.

it's the fact that price reached a certain point, eg $19666 in 2017, and sellers began to finally outnumber buyers. in other words, everyone who was willing to buy at that price already bought. but there were still lots of people who wanted to sell. this excess supply pushing into weak demand started pushing price down.

the price decline creates a feedback effect in the market: holders are pressured to sell to lock in profits or cut losses, and buyers stop buying for fear of the falling prices.

the tricky thing is, you can only know this happened in hindsight. in real time, it could just be a short term correction. at first, after we hit $19666, nobody thought it was the top. until it fell, and fell, and......fell. eventually it was obvious......in hindsight.

[jakelyson]

Than using it as a currency, most majorities of people take advantages of Bitcoins as a trading asset.  Under that point of view, simply, if the trader wants to earn profit, the price must go up.

Some traders also earn when the price is going down by shorting bitcoin. So the analogy that the price must go up in order to earn profit is wrong. That is why there are other people who spread FUD. They want to profit from their shorts.

What’s the peak?

The peak decides by the moment what? More people assume that “there won’t be a pump further”. At the moment, people stop buying Bitcoins, demand reduces and price gets down…

So, my question is,

Are there some "special" circumstances assisting people to think like that (there won’t be a pump further)?

Some use technical analysis to determine this but the easiest hint is if the price goes up so fast in a short period of time, then the price is due to reverse. This is because the bulls will get exhausted and there will be profit-taking, thus pulling the price down.

But if you mean the ATH, then it cannot be determined. Bitcoin is open to reaching new ATH all the time.

[joeperry]

Hmmm interesting topic I've been into trading and been reading and watching trading tutorials but until now I can't figure out how to jump out and sell at the highest price of the day, I've tried that before and succeed but deep in my mind it's really a luck since I don't have any analytical studies conduct and just came up in my head to sell my coin.

I'll try to read here more about their strategies and ideas about how to determine the peak price of any cryptocurrency in the market.

[harizen]

So, my question is,

Are there some "special" circumstances assisting people to think like that (there won’t be a pump further)?

That "special" circumstances varies per person. People have different approaches and preferences to think that a certain price level can be considered as the peak price. They also have different certain factors in determining whether to stop buying or not.

Once you play on the market especially in the short term trades regularly, you will be used to analyzing every price trend. Therefore, thinking possibilities like for example, there will be no pump after reaching $**.***, is quite not that difficult to determine once it reached a certain different factor set by a person.

[pixie85]

You don't know where the peak will be. It's impossible to predict. People who do pick prices they feel we will rich and then some are right and some are wrong.
Technically a peak is confirmed when the price crashes from it. There's no other way to do it. When we are sitting at some high like 20 thousand there's always a chance that we will go higher.

The most popular way to predict another peak is to measure the previous exponential rises or drawing trend lines. Both aren't 100% accurate.

[adaseb]

Only way to predict the peak is in hindsight, however if you look at the weekly charts and do basic analysis of those you will see when you should get out so it doesn't go down further.

When the peak was hit in 2017, everybody was buying the dips in 2018 however what the smarter traders noticed was that it kept making lower highs and usually kept hitting the 61.8 fib and heading back down.

So the writing was on the wall that $6K would eventually break and cause a huge sell-off.

[1Referee]

Gut feelings or potentially an important sell the news event. More than that there isn't.

I find it quite funny how people on social media after a pump from the bottom or a dump from the peak, always pretend to have sold the perfect peak or bought the perfect bottom. Most people who do end up buying or selling do that well before the actual bottom or peak is in. The same applies to all the technical analysis bobos that pop up pretending to have predicted everything. 

The only way to increase the chances of buying the bottom or selling the peak is to buy/sell fractions per time. If you do that long enough you'll eventially be very close to a perfect entry/exit point.

[pooya87]

The peak decides by the moment what? More people assume that “there won’t be a pump further”. At the moment, people stop buying Bitcoins, demand reduces and price gets down…

yes, if it were a "pump" then you could be correct. people decide that the "pump" has come to an end and they stop buying and instead start "dumping" their coins to take their money out and price comes back down to below what it started.

BUT "rise" and "pump" are not the same thing! a pump is a manipulation where price rise is fake so it can not be sustained and it comes to an end and drops inevitably. but a (normal) rise that is based on real demand is very different, there is nothing fake about it and people don't just stop because they think it is the end. the "rise" is showing the market growth and the fact that more money is coming in and that money is not just going to flee. in fact people are selling all along the rise but the reason why price rises is that more money is coming in than the money that is existing through their sells.

[fiulpro]

You already know about the demand and supply and hot it affects environment now you should understand that everyone have their own personal style of thinking.
When bitcoins is going up and suddenly it jumps up to a value that people have never seen before , they start to encash .
The time where most people starts encashing is more or so the average peak , then it falls down and people start to encash more and more .
And then finally it is at a low.
I think peak is nothing but a fictional thing but ! Circumstances make it so.

[Baofeng]

Are there some "special" circumstances assisting people to think like that (there won’t be a pump further)?

As the market is based on speculation, one thing you have to understand is that everyone is affected by the good news coming around, classic example the the CBoE and CME bitcoin future contracts offering last December 2017. Prior to that news, the market is already in a massive bull-run, however, that news really push the price to a bubble that's why we reach all-time-highs, and unfortunately followed by an imminent bearish market, because the price can't go on a parabolic rise.

[Kakmakr]

The most correct answer is that nobody can accurately predict what the all time high would be, because there are too many factors influencing the demand and supply. Also throw into the mix all the FUD and misinformation and hype that are pushing the price and you have a recipe for disaster. 

I normally look for a big pump in a Bull market and when it starts going down aggressively, I immediately sell some coins to take some profit at the near the peak price. It might or might not be a Bull trap, but I still make some decent returns on my investment by doing this. 

[AGD]

The peak is a lot more difficult to predict, than the lowest price. While the peak is purly speculative, you can put the lowest possible price at about 20% lower than production cost. This is where some miners will shut down their operation and difficulty will go down.

[muslol67]

It's been a long time since Gold entered human life. Is anybody among us still able to predict the peak of gold? It's impossible to make such a guess for Bitcoin.