Bitcoin Bull Break Above $11k And Falling Wedge

[Whaleagent]

https://whaleagent.club/bitcoin-bull-break-above-11k-and-falling-wedge/




The bitcoin bulls have done it again with a huge bull break above the $11000 level, the $11085 daily resistance and the falling wedge on the weekly chart. This is a huge achievement for the bulls and although the volume isn’t too great, it doesn’t really matter at this point. The price is no way above the daily EMA’s which have crossed bullish.

[STT]

Think I have to agree, its moved fairly strongly as if breaking a negative trend line.    Chart I drew just quickly to estimate how its progressing:



Failing to break that lower support line around 9500 area seems to have encouraged some speculative long action to take from there.   Obviously we got various other reasoning based and news and so on but thats how it normally goes.

[exstasie]

It seems like most analysts have flipped bullish by now, with most expecting news highs beyond $13,800. I'm open to that possibility, but I want to point out a couple reasons why we should proceed with caution. Here's the daily chart:



Directly overhead are two notable price levels: the .618 fib of the entire downtrend, and the downtrend line from $13,800. So we are right near a potential inflection point.

The current commitment of traders is notable too. Longs are quite high and shorts are low: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5172462.msg52072063#msg52072063

So with the 4H-daily momentum indicators in the overbought range, I would be very careful in this area. It might be time to move stops up into profit and hold off buying until either a pullback or pronounced breakout.

[1Referee]

The Binance charts looks different than for example Bitstamp's or Coinbase's charts, which I value over Binance's USDT crap market.

It's going to be interesting to see where we close in the next 1.5 hours. We wicked slightly above the descending wick to wick resistance, but that's not much worth if we don't manage to close there. A close above the descending resistance will make me less bearish than I was yesterday. If that happens I will close my short (still at a profit) and turn it into a long.

[exstasie]

Directly overhead are two notable price levels: the .618 fib of the entire downtrend, and the downtrend line from $13,800. So we are right near a potential inflection point.

LOL. Bears just had to keep hope alive, didn't they?

As David pointed out, breaking above that trend line with authority would have been telling. Instead, we're left guessing whether that spike to $12,300 yesterday was a major failure like the spike to $13,200 a few weeks ago.

For now, bears are still in the game. That was a clear failure to launch, followed by a fat selloff candle:

[leowonderful]

We've had a selloff since we broke over $12k last night, and though the bears did manage to pull things down to about $11.2K on Bitmex from what I can see, prices have since recovered to about $11.6k as of right now, although there does seem to be a bit of resistance overhead again. 4H RSI is now sitting near 60, with nothing besides the 12H and 6H being close to overbought at the moment. Things are a bit chaotic at the moment but I wouldn't be surprised if we go for another run over the trendline soon as indicators have cooled down after the dip.

Below chart is of the 15M, pretty surprised the bulls have kept things from sinking further.

[exstasie]

We've had a selloff since we broke over $12k last night, and though the bears did manage to pull things down to about $11.2K on Bitmex from what I can see, prices have since recovered to about $11.6k as of right now, although there does seem to be a bit of resistance overhead again. 4H RSI is now sitting near 60, with nothing besides the 12H and 6H being close to overbought at the moment. Things are a bit chaotic at the moment but I wouldn't be surprised if we go for another run over the trendline soon as indicators have cooled down after the dip.

Below chart is of the 15M, pretty surprised the bulls have kept things from sinking further.

Same here. This is a confusing area. Lots of congestion and not clear what's going to happen. If this is a bearish reversal taking place, then a .618 retrace to the $11,900 area (right near that upper trend line) would be pretty typical before more downside.

[Herbert2020]

the volume isn't "too great" because we are still in the sideways action mode even though it may look like this was a bull break,... and that makes most investors anxious while day traders more active. in other words the investors are trying to wait for the signal (breaking above $12k properly or maybe $13k) before they invest and that makes it ideal for the day traders who are making profit from these 5% ups and downs that keep repeating every couple of days.

[sana54210]

The volume has been a source of concern to most of the speculation I have seen concerning this bullish trend! However, bitcoin has keep increasing in value and we only now need more volume for the bull to remain in control throughout the month of August. Like other years what happened in this month will transform to what is going to happen by the end of this year. If bitcoin is bullish this month then we should expect it to be bullish by the end of the year.

Since bitcoin started increasing this year volume has really not been a determinant for its increase because many analysts has tried all their possible best to look for the main factor that has contributed to its increase and found nothing much on it. We have seen very few volumes being bought on some exchanges but not that high too to attribute it to the increase which is why some feels that the market is being manipulated which I doubt this also.

It is not really that easy to figure out the causes of the surge we do see bitcoin have sometimes but like you said, all that matters is that we have bulls in the market that has succeeded in stepping down the bears and all we need to keep hoping that they will be available for a while for us traders to keep taking advantage of these increase to make money.

[leowonderful]

Yet another bart-like pattern after we had a little bull flag at the top where we briefly broke above the top of the flag and then proceeded to fake out and dump several hundred dollars in the process. Took profits right after the bart happened, and it seems we've now got a lower high on our hands with that last pump as well. We're also below the trendline again. Would be cautious longing this area if that's what you plan on doing, size your trades appropriately for the risk here. Very indecisive right now. Chart is on the 5M, GDAX. 

[el kaka22]

I guess I don't really understand what makes bitcoin tick and I have been in this world for over 6 years now you know. I mean bitcoin sometimes goes down super fast and sometimes it goes up super fast as well and I look at all these so called "charts" and nobody and no chart could ever predict what will happen, not the time and not the direction, if one chart can get it right for one time then the next time they are wrong, there has been no person and no chart nor any indicator that was always right no matter what.

Price just does whatever it wants and whales just play with it like a fiddle and we are all out here watching it like it is a regular stock market world where we can take a cut for ourselves as well in reality it is just a game for all the rich people out there as always.

[exstasie]

You've got to hand it to the bears. They're defending the down trend line and the $12K level pretty staunchly. Looks like another big failure wick through resistance and an opportunity to start another selloff:



What a roller coaster! I'm still not sure about the big picture regarding mid term trend. This is not a confirmed bearish reversal yet, although it's beginning to look that way.

[STT]

I still rate that it left the daily uptrend, it didnt really care about that and just kept bouncing about but it hasnt risen since that point either.    The recent high was that daily trend now a ceiling, its not what I'd call negative or positive at this point.

On the daily we have the triple peak and each a decline of the last.   Maybe Bitcoin is like an oil tanker, it was positive and 20 miles down the road the momentum will taper out and it'll come to stop.  Then it might reverse some and even be negative properly but the 9k prices was more of a resting point so far

[YuginKadoya]

Even though there might be a falling wedge once the bull break I guess there is a safe floor that we can sure count on and it will surely break the fall, But again this year is not so certain to just go to the moon either because there is so much possibility that another dip might happen, and I am guessing it is not the $11,000 USD but the $12,000 USD after reaching that height the fall might happen, Because of certain resistance from that level and the $11,000 mark had already passed its resistance and now come another level.

[Baofeng]

What a roller coaster! I'm still not sure about the big picture regarding mid term trend. This is not a confirmed bearish reversal yet, although it's beginning to look that way.

^^ This. last night was a make or break, I thought that the bears will taking over and a reversal is imminent. Was mad at not taking the profit,  . Anyways, we could see another bearish reversal if we don't push and break $12k again. And most likely it will be the case in the next 14 hours. Ah, change my mind, I will just continue to hold and see that magical $15k mark next month. So it will be a mental game for me from here onwards.

[exstasie]

What a roller coaster! I'm still not sure about the big picture regarding mid term trend. This is not a confirmed bearish reversal yet, although it's beginning to look that way.

^^ This. last night was a make or break, I thought that the bears will taking over and a reversal is imminent. Was mad at not taking the profit,  .

That's funny because given how the dumps were being bought up right below $12K, I was sure it was bulls who were taking over. When I opened the chart last night, I expected to be coasting through the $12,000s. To my surprise, it actually looks like bears may have won the battle for $12,000.

If they can just make new lows below the $11,200 area it will start looking like a very clear failure and longs will start being squeezed out. Now that sellers have made their stand, the high long/short ratio on Bitmex and Bitfinex is really looming.

Here's a look at that trend line we've been watching:

[Harlot]

BTC as of right now is showing some weakness after hitting 12,300$. It has now lost 6% of its value after attempting to go higher than 12,300$ now its only 11,590$ the lowest of which is 11,200$ for today. With that quick recover after 11,200$ I think the market is still in favor for the bulls but if Bitcoin continues to be in favor of the sellers by just going down nearer to 11,000$ once again then we might go down around 10,000$ by the end of the week. RSI is still in the middle so there is no indication on where the market will go from this point.

[1Referee]

Here's a look at that trend line we've been watching:
-snip-

It's going to be super interesting in the coming 10ish days. If we keep moving sideways, and respect the ascending trend line that has been there since April, it might offer a helping hand to confidently push above the descending line as seen in your screenshot. I strongly believe that given the trend, we will make higher local highs.

I converted my short into a 2x long and I'm ready for the next leg up. People might consider 2x boring, but no wick will stop me out. There are no certainties of course, because we technically haven't seen a high local high yet, but given the current trend it's kinda foolish to be bearish for too long.

[exstasie]

I converted my short into a 2x long and I'm ready for the next leg up. People might consider 2x boring, but no wick will stop me out. There are no certainties of course, because we technically haven't seen a high local high yet, but given the current trend it's kinda foolish to be bearish for too long.

Probably. I'm still sitting on hands until this congestion is officially done though. No reason to rush into a position in my view because once we make new highs, it should be clear sailing for a while.

But as long as we don't make new highs, the bear case is still possible, however unlikely. Plus going long right now means betting against xxxx123abcxxxx, whose calls have been rock solid.

[SquallLeonhart]

BTC as of right now is showing some weakness after hitting 12,300$. It has now lost 6% of its value after attempting to go higher than 12,300$ now its only 11,590$ the lowest of which is 11,200$ for today. With that quick recover after 11,200$ I think the market is still in favor for the bulls but if Bitcoin continues to be in favor of the sellers by just going down nearer to 11,000$ once again then we might go down around 10,000$ by the end of the week. RSI is still in the middle so there is no indication on where the market will go from this point.

The market will still be in favor of bulls even if the price falls lower than this, the good thing about the current market is that we are already in uptrend and we are far away from the bear market, so whatever drop in value we are seeing should just be counted as correction and I think we will be seeing lots of these correction before the bull run come, the only people that would just be luck are those that are using this opportunity to trade, they just buy low and then sell high every time they see that opportunity.

For long term holder, I think we should just forget about monitoring the market for now, or else we will give ourselves unnecessary tension, our goal is to reach ATH and when the time comes, it will be clearly known to us.