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Author Topic: Gear Pricing just becomes more irrational then ever  (Read 1050 times)
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philipma1957 (OP)
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August 10, 2019, 01:56:54 PM
 #1

Going to list gear  pricing and break even with:

 5 cent power
 4 cent power
 3 cent power

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August 10, 2019, 01:57:06 PM
Last edit: August 11, 2019, 11:24:47 PM by frodocooper
Merited by frodocooper (5), Trinislacker (1)
 #2

Spacer

Okay  direct from innosilicon

https://www.innosilicon.com/html/t3+57t-miner/index.html

uses 80 kwatts a day  does about 55th

so  4 bucks a day  at 5 cent power

and 3.2 dollars a day at 4 cent power
and 2.4 dollars a day at 3 cent power

October delivery 2310      =    0.226130 btc shipping included
November delivery 2230   =   0.219091 btc  shipping included

this unit earns about 0.0013475 btc daily

0.226130/0.0013475 = 167 days for the october order if power is free
0.219091/0.0013475 = 159 days for November order if power is free

167 days at 5 cent power = 668 power cost
159 days at 5 cent power = 636 power cost

167 days at 4 cent power = 534 power cost
159 days at 4 cent power = 509 power cost

167 days at 3 cent power = 401 power cost
159 days at 3 cent power = 382 power cost

So  the t57 if it comes in october  will not pay back for 167 days unless you have free power and flat price in coin and difficulty stay flat.

If you have 5 cent power you will  be looking at 50 more days to break even so the october unit would be 217 to 235 days to break even



next the s9 from bitmain

the s9k does 13.5th  2 cost 798 with shipping to the usa.

so 800 at  11500 is 0.06956 btc for 2 shipped to usa under the trump tax

https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020190730112951352E0D2y0TF0621

27th x 0.0000245 = 0.0006615 btc a day

0.06956/0.0006615 =  105 days to pay off if power is free  gear arrives in sept

at 5 cent power  it cost 1.56 a day to run the unit  so at 105 days you are down 164 dollars
at 4 cent power it cost  1.25 a day to run the unit  so at 105 days you are down 131 dollars
at 3 cent power it cost   .94 a day to run the unit  so at  105 days you are down  99 dollars



there is of course the a1041 from avalon

https://blokforge.com/product/canaan-avalon-1041-31th-s-bitcoin-miner-shipping-august/



and there are the  4 models from pangolinminer the whatsminer m20 m20s m21 m21s

they are all now pushed to December delivery dates

https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m20-series/
https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m21s-with-psu/
https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m20-with-psu-shipout-during-august-20-september-15/
https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m21-with-psu-shipout-during-august-1020/



right now  with all calculations  the old school s9k  has better break even numbers then any other gear.

you simply need 3-5 cent power  and you will break even in under 200 days

of course if you have  10cent power  and really want to mine  you will be looking at a more efficient piece of gear.

I write this because all the major companies combined are creating a funnel toward the s9k  as you best choice to buy if you have 3-5 cent power.

The math says  buy s9k's nothing matches their payoff times. (if you have 3 to 5 cent power)

I find this very interesting.

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August 10, 2019, 05:29:27 PM
Last edit: August 10, 2019, 05:40:55 PM by jbillk
Merited by frodocooper (3), vapourminer (1)
 #3

Keep in mind depreciation is much higher on the low efficiency gear. I'm phasing out my S9 while they still have value..I can sell them at $400 a pop, and they will be worthless in 6 months. High efficiency gear should be valuable for at least a couple years. I think long term. You have to stay ahead of the curve.

Window of profitability is important. S9 has ROI of 200days, but you may not even have 200 days to mine before it becomes unprofitable.

High efficiency gear will stay profitable for long time, even with ever increasing difficulty.
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August 10, 2019, 08:35:15 PM
Last edit: August 11, 2019, 11:26:33 PM by frodocooper
Merited by frodocooper (2)
 #4

I have done the math and the prices are too high for the efficient gear.

an  s17 53th pro is 4k in hand .  with free power it  earns 53 x 0.0000245 btc a day or 0.0012985 btc at 11,300 = 14.67 a day

4 s9 are 54 th  or 54 x 0.0000245 = 0.001323 btc a day = 14.95 a day

s17 = 2225 watts
4 s9's = 5225 watts

a 3 kwatt power difference that is 72 kwatts a day extra or 300 x 72 = 21600 kwatts in 300 days

at 10 cent cost    it would be  2160 spent in power

4 s9 with psu for 1200 = possible to find

1 s17 53th pro for 4000 = hard but possible to find

so you spend 2800 extra for state of the art   you have 10 cent power  300 days later

1200 + 2160 = 3360 out of pocket

4000 + 0     =  4000 out of pocket    and in both cases 2.2 x 24 x 300 x .10  = 1584  for power

so 3360 + 1584 =   4944   and you have  0.3969 btc 4 s9's about 4484 cash

4000 + 1584 =       5584  and you have   0.3895 btc  s17  about 4401 cash

so both deals are  not good with 10 cent power

we can go back down to 5 cent  and you will see  that favors the s9  more

2225 = 2.225 kwatt x 24 x 300 = 16020 kwatts at 5 cents =    801 in power

5225 = 5.225 kwatt x 24 x 300 =  37620 kwatts at 5 cents = 1881 in power

so 4000 + 801 = 4801  for s17       you will have about 4401 usd in btc = loser
and 1200 x 1881 = 3081 for s9       you will have about 4484 usd in btc = winner

so at 10 cent both units lose at 300 days
but at 5 cent the 4x s9's kill the 4000 dollar s17

this make prices fucking nuts!!

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August 11, 2019, 02:26:47 AM
 #5

S17 pricing is ridiculous. I did purchase a Innosillicon 57t for $2200 Sept delivery, and a Avalon 10 for $1800, August Delivery. Much more reasonable.
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August 11, 2019, 03:34:09 AM
Last edit: August 11, 2019, 11:28:39 PM by frodocooper
Merited by frodocooper (3)
 #6

Did the math on an 1800 a1041 vs 798 for 2 s9k’s

Running the a1041 on full speed needs a cold space. I tested my 2 1041 on low and high

On low you get 30 th use 1980 watts in a warm room..

2 s9k. You get 27 th use 2500 watts in a warm room.

So you are 1000 usd behind with the a1041 but you gain 3 th a day and pay 12 less kwatts a day.

At a dime a kwatt  it saves 1.20 in power every day
And at a nickel a kwatt it saves 60 cents in power every day

It also earns 3 x 0.0000245 more then the s9 do.  That is 0.0000735 btc a day.

So after 300 days you gain back with 360 in power if you are a ten cent miner
Or 180 in power if,you are a nickel miner..

But 300 x 0.0000735 is  0.002205 btc in extra btc earned  that is 25 dollars 💵 maybe 26 dollars more.

So in theory if btc skyrockets the a1041 could be a better deal after 300 days.

In no method from free to 10 cent power is the s17 better. Since the s9s would earn more btc.

The a1041 has a sound edge if you run at 30th speed. So that is a plus.

And if run at full speed it would earn even more coin then the s9s  so you could at least stand a shot that the a1041 for 1800 from blokforge could beat the 2 s9 from bitmain.

But frankly unless you need to manage noise the s9k is almost certain to be a better buy if your power is at 0 to 10 cents at the 300 day point of use.

The t3 57t is no longer available for sept delivery for 2200. That deal is decent.
I paid 2500 for the m21s it arrived a week or so ago.

The t3 57t will be 2500 for October shipping.

You will want to run it at 52 th and use 2900 watts

As most all Innosilicon suck at full speed. Also if they pull 3400 watts on a c19 plug 🔌 it is borderline safe.

So 52th. At 2900 watts vs. 54th at 5200 watts.

So you save 2300 watts a day with a little bit less hash.

Let’s say you get it to do 55th at 3100 watts I doubt it.

It is a tiny bit more hash then the 4 s9k.

Or let’s argue it safely does 57th at 3300 watts

So you gain 3 th and save 1900 watts

This is pretty good and in 300 days you saved 300 x 4.40 or 1320 at 10 cent power or 660 at 5 cent power.

So a t3 57t coming in sept that cost you 2200 was a good deal.

But a t3 57t coming in oct that cost you 2500 was borderline

Still better then the

S17
a1041

Beats the s9 in 300 days if power is about 9 cents or power.
Loses to the s9 in 300 days if power is about 6 cents or less.

To get correct idea 💡 of these insane prices go back to the s9 in dec. 2017

Bitmain wanted 3000 for 1 s9. And coins were 20000 diff was 1.4

So diff is now 9.8
coins are 11300

The s9 was making. 45usd a day and was 3000 bucks

Today. The s17 makes. 15usd a day and was offered for 4000 bucks by bitmain.

We are so fucking over priced with the s17 it is crazy 😜

S9    The 2017 3000/45 = 67 days with free power
S17 The 2019  4000/15 = 267 days with free power.

So with the numbers above for the s17 to equal the 2017 price   Coins need to,go from 11300 to  well over 35000

So if the gear pricing is correct then coins will moon.

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August 11, 2019, 08:13:51 AM
Merited by frodocooper (4), philipma1957 (2), vapourminer (1)
 #7

Manufacturers like Bitmain and Whatsminer recently, are just capitalizing on the resellers market. Essentially they're under cutting their own buyers (resellers) by releasing units out of a typical cadence. This is flooding the available market with more gear. Though now they are selling at higher prices, but still lower or competitive with resellers, so units already sold to resellers won't move as fast. Potentially lowering pricing as a whole as the product that doesn't sell will be available cheaper because more units are being made, will ship, and back log for some manufacturers is pushing into 2020. Of course this only happens if no other variables change.

If market goes gangbusters all bets are off and you either fight off fomo and make good buying choices or hope you set up competitively to ride till bear and pick up on the cheap.

Still imo, it's best to project and calculate a good hash increase to diff increase and look to build up as you need to. Mostly as pre order from manufacturer is usually best pricing, and with your projections you know you'll want X ths, X month(s) from now you want/need. Reducing buying pressure and still getting the upgrades your looking for when you want to light them up, hopefully in an ROI that's acceptable.

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August 11, 2019, 03:25:11 PM
Last edit: August 11, 2019, 11:30:25 PM by frodocooper
 #8

I have........................................................................... ............... 900th mining
I have  1 t3 t50 coming on line this month I hope. Roll Eyes..........................50th
I have    2 s9k     coming on line in sept.............................................27th

I have 1 dead m10  that one fucking m10 just breaks over and over......30th  who knows
I have a 2 board repaired s9 over clocked ..........................................10th

that is 107th
I may over clock some of the partial s9's  about 23th more hash

so with perfect luck    I can add 130th to the 900th  with zero cash outlay

I expect to add 95th to the 900 th  giving me just about 1 ph  by sept 2019

blokforge
minefarmbuy   do miners correctly and you end up paying trump tax.

I would order a t3 t57 for october but I am waiting for the t3 t50 to arrive before I order more.

As I don't want to have 2  separate orders  out in the wild from innosilicion or from anyone other then bitmain.

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August 11, 2019, 10:56:06 PM
Last edit: August 11, 2019, 11:31:06 PM by frodocooper
Merited by Flying Hellfish (5)
 #9

This is why every time I regret not buying s9s when they were selling dirt cheap I remember how stressful this thing is and congratulate myself for the move.

For bitmain and inno and the rest, it's pretty simple. They charge outrageous prices knowing that, if you buy with the revenue they build two more, you don't buy it, not a problem they will mine themselves with it.

Of course, right now an s9 would make sense, but it all comes to how much gear do have they sold how much they have produced and how much they are going to make for the rest of the year.

Let's take the optimistic scenario
- back in October, we had around 55exa, meaning that we can put the growth of 20exa on new gear.
20exa in 6 months means that by the end of the year we will have another 20ex, not great, not terrible you will still ROI.

The pessimistic conspirationist scenario
- the first growth was actually because bitmain had already deployed new gear and the drop was because older s9 were put out for sale,  the 20 exahash were all new gear and they have another 20 exa shipping.
That would make at the end of the year 60+20(old gear for sale)+ 20 exash new gear deployed, 20 exa in shipping, and add another 40 for the rest of the year...and we're at 160exa by Christmas at which point if you own some s9...you would better be running on zero energy.

As usual, the truth is somewhere in between, but where?

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August 11, 2019, 11:44:09 PM
Last edit: August 12, 2019, 12:05:16 AM by frodocooper
 #10

My power deal is 50-50 coin split    so  the lowest cost per hash favors me  but of course it does not mean I should buy 40 s9's to fill out the farm as I would be lese then fair to my hoster.

I have 900th online about 230th is s9  the other 670th is all more efficient gear.
I also have 11gh of L3+

so better gear is pulling 52kwatts
the s9's are pulling        25kwatts
the L3+ are pulling        18kwatts
some gpu's pull               2kwatts

total                             97kwatts

the better gear earns way better then the s9's  but it looks like  with the trump tax issues I am shut out of everything other then the s9's

yesterday we made 0.17 ltc to spilt and  0.0226 btc to split.

that is  15+260   = 275/2 = 137.50 a day for my 1/2

I can justify adding more s9's  a few at a time.
It legally beats the trump tax.

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August 12, 2019, 04:24:15 AM
Last edit: August 13, 2019, 02:14:36 AM by frodocooper
 #11

My S9s are still making decent money. But I fear a "tipping point" when used S9s are going to flood the market. I got stuck with a bunch of Avalon 741s a while back. I could of sold them for decent price, but I waited to long, and got stuck with them. Couldn't even give them away.

Timing is everything. When BTC was $6000, I bought my S9s for $100, now reselling them for $400. There is good money in buying and selling Asics. Kicking myself because I had opportunity to buy a pallet of 10 x s17 for $20k when they first came out. They would have ROId by now just from mining, and then sell them at 4k a piece now.
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August 12, 2019, 11:49:40 AM
Last edit: August 13, 2019, 02:14:52 AM by frodocooper
 #12

yeah I could have had 10 s17 pro 53th for 22,225  would have been nice.

I ordered 1  not 10.

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August 13, 2019, 01:04:19 AM
Last edit: August 13, 2019, 02:15:18 AM by frodocooper
 #13

Nobody is buying S9's at $400. ...nor are the newest S9's going to sell out....there are 10's of thousands of them for sale through Offordscott alone.
S9's will be obsolete SOON...by Oct. most will be mining at a loss,  because of the Diff increase from new gear and the price WILL DIVE again as new gear comes online worst dive will be before year end. Diff will double by year end to 20 Trillion.

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August 13, 2019, 01:29:43 AM
Last edit: August 13, 2019, 02:15:41 AM by frodocooper
 #14

If your power deal is 50-50 coin split

Buying a pair of s9s is better then buying any new more efficient gear.

I am stuck in the USA so. All gear other then a pair of s9s is subject to the trump tax. Which moves to @ higher number in around a month.

I do not see moving from 9.9 t to 20 t in only 138 days.

Btw for me with a 50-50 coin split  the s9 does not hurt me much .

Obviously buying new gear like an s17 for 4000 simply does not work.

With trump tax it pushes 5200.

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August 13, 2019, 04:00:59 PM
 #15

They are going to keep holding pricing too even if we dip under 9000
Demand is about to surge among commercial miners from what I can tell. 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4284590-blockstream-launches-bitcoin-mining-service
Just that alone seems like it could have heavy impact.

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August 13, 2019, 09:39:41 PM
 #16

s9 have been actively replaced s9 for a while. I would expect well run larger farms already cycled out most of their older gear.

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August 13, 2019, 10:01:17 PM
 #17

s9 have been actively replaced s9 for a while. I would expect well run larger farms already cycled out most of their older gear.

Sure some has cycled out.

My small farm is 680th newer  220th s9

But I think  not as much as you may think

diff is 9.9 soon to be 10.2

when we were mostly all s9   diff got to  7.8 in october

so a lot of s9  are mining at the moment

we peaked at 57 eh in october

we have now hit some 83 eh 1 day peaks

that means  57 + 26 = 83

more likely

50 + 33 = 83

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August 13, 2019, 10:23:16 PM
 #18

Key takeaways from this thread :

> S9's and S9k's are better than the newer efficient hardwares.

> And the newer hardware will cause diff to rise to 20 trillion soon (but not in 4 - 5 months)

> BTC price will dive.

> Trump tax will make things more unprofitable soon.

Damn! this thread has been so depressing man! Thanks for all your calculations @Phillip


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August 13, 2019, 10:59:34 PM
Last edit: August 14, 2019, 12:18:46 AM by frodocooper
 #19

or to the moon and I am completely wrong Wink

trump announced he would postpone some of the new tariffs .   Not sure about mining gear.

But 25% + 2.6

would be better then a jump to 35% + 2.6

Info changes constantly. A very fast world we are in.

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August 14, 2019, 03:29:59 PM
 #20

Where Crypto meets the "real" world, and not just currency exchange rates.
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