Gear Pricing just becomes more irrational then ever

[Philipma1957cellphone]

Well my Father-in-law would love to say we shall see what we shall  see. My Clifton  farm is okay for now.

[1715162306]

1715162306

[mikeywith]

The only issue I have with all the "guessing" that we all seem to do is that mining is a game of luck to begin with, in normal business you only have to worry about the competition since product cost and profit margin are almost always static , mining on the other hand, you need to worry about both competition (difficulty) and bitcoin price (product).

a few months ago when I was in the process of making a move that involved exchanging my BTC to hashing power , things were not as clear, now for me and for anyone who bough those cheap S9s we have ROIed  (or at least pretty close) and can easily sell the gears for double the price now, and that was BTC to mining gears, so I can only imagine that $ to mining gears would have been much profitable in all aspects.

While I do agree with phill that "Gear Pricing just becomes more irrational then ever" , this statement is only valid for now, 3-4 months from now phill or anyone else for that matter might look back and regret not buying S17 for 4k , since for all we know BTC can easily hit 50k in a few months even before the halving.

But despite the luck factor, I have always though it's a wise idea to do the math based on what you see and not based on what you expect , so as phill showed doing the math, buying these new efficient gears at these stupid prices looks like a stupid decision as of now.

What is my plan? (not wise at all)

My plan is plain simple, it involves some speculations and some facts - based on those here is how I plan to play the next round, but first , let me put some points.

1-Price moves way faster than difficulty (fact)
2-Price is going UP (speculation)
3-Price will go down later (speculation)

-I expect a rally within a few months that will take us to 20k or (100% price increment)
-difficulty won't do 100% , not even 50% till then
-S9 profit will increase by at least 50% and probably go back to 5-6$ a day
-Mining Fomo hits again , S9 price increases (and so do the other gears)

at this point when we approach the last known ATH , everyone and their grand mother would want to start mining, I will take the chance and sell my S9s for a great price , and hodl USD.

-wait for price to correct (  I do believe it will once we approach the ATH, it always did)
-buy more efficient gears during the correction

rinse and repeat,,,

This is a high risk high reward way of doing things, if things go south you lose a lot , if things go as planned you get to have the same TH at 30-40% less power , if things don't work, you will end up paying more for the same TH you used to have, but to me and since I have already ROIed on almost every gear I bought , I am feeling so comfortable playing with fire.

[philipma1957]

Well my Father-in-law would love to say we shall see what we shall  see. My Clifton  farm is okay for now.

This is me  I was at a sweet sixteen party just got home.

Niceeeee  coins tanking.

I just grabbed some ltc at 74 bucks.

best thing that can happen is a hard tank  maybe 7777 for btc  and 66.66 for ltc

fingers crossed we really drop.  and that big ass 300 megawatt farm  just  getting built  gets cut hard.

Sooo glad I did not fold and buy  dec gear.

Of course  by the morining  btc could be 11111 and ltc could be 102  and I look like a fool.

[sidehack]

The tank was right on time. Just got paid the biggest BTC invoice in months at $11k8 so of course it was going to drop 15%. Don't know about you guys but a drop below $8k would make my business harder.

[philipma1957]

The tank was right on time. Just got paid the biggest BTC invoice in months at $11k8 so of course it was going to drop 15%. Don't know about you guys but a drop below $8k would make my business harder.

It would not be good for gear builders and or sellers.  It would not be good for those that have a dozen units of gear due in Dec.

[minefarmbuy]

Until bitcoin is treated more like money instead of an asset you'll see the volatility market wise. Then it will likely be the main off ramp to exit inflationary fiats for a number of years, so the appreciation of value is very likely.

As a business we want to retain the scarcity of bitcoin and so only exchange it as necessary regardless of market finding that gain/loss is negligible long term. Though we operate extremely lean so overhead is much less an issue like for it is for sidehack and other business models. Essentially we recommend bitcoin every time an incentivize it but are firm on allowing users to decide for the best experience possible.

[philipma1957]

Until bitcoin is treated more like money instead of an asset you'll see the volatility market wise. Then it will likely be the main off ramp to exit inflationary fiats for a number of years, so the appreciation of value is very likely.

As a business we want to retain the scarcity of bitcoin and so only exchange it as necessary regardless of market finding that gain/loss is negligible long term. Though we operate extremely lean so overhead is much less an issue like for it is for sidehack and other business models. Essentially we recommend bitcoin every time an incentivize it but are firm on allowing users to decide for the best experience possible.

true  it does move around.  PM sent.

[Steamtyme]

Jumping in a little late been busy.

trump announced he would postpone some of the new tariffs .   Not sure about mining gear.  would be better then a jump to 35% + 2.6   Info changes constantly. A very fast world we are in.

Last I read on that this proposed 10% was on items not previously affected. Mining gear should be excluded from that.

The pricing isn't really a surprise move as far as I'm concerned. 2018 must have killed the manufacturing pace that was being set so now orders for components that are placed months in advance were probably at near minimum levels so that no one was left holding to much stock. Until that run on coin price everything was priced in so that you could be profitable sub $7000. So anyone ordering gear and receiving it within a few weeks was laughing. January you could load up your entire farm in 3 weeks with M10's at 750$ per. If you had a long preorder depending on how you paid you might have got stung and paid a 40% premium.

That price jump pretty much dropped us in November 2017 - Gear several generations old is now profitable again, and there isn't enough new gear available right now. Now manufacturers are scrambling to ramp up production, which costs a lot and they had just been selling gear at a steal. So they know people want it and are just dangling out everything they have, which probably includes gear reserved for warranty repair/replacement, charging in the irrational realm because someone will pay it.

I'm curious to see how many of these pre-orders arrive on time.

[minefarmbuy]

Correct, 27.6% will be rate with tariff pending any other news.

[philipma1957]

Jumping in a little late been busy...

This post is why I did the thread.  In dec 2017. The s9 made 45 usd a day in coin.  You could sell one for three thousand dollars.  And people would be happy you sold it for that price.

Today the s17 pro makes 14 A day you would be loved by all if you sold one for the same 3000.

The s9 pulls 1350 watts the s17 pulls 2225 watts.

Based on 2017 dec numbers the s9 sold for

the s17 should be under 1750 shipped  today. Last I looked it was over 4100 shipped today.

The exposure to buy 10 s17 and waiting until dec makes zero sense.

I would argue what happens if coins moon to 30 k. Will we see s17 for 8000?

[WhyFhy]

All these points about historical pricing proves to me the greed of the mining manufacturers industry.

I've stated this before , but we need more manufacturers like sidehack.

Sidehack what would you need in order to get to that point?  I get that the chip prices fluctuate would hinder going all in. Would love to see you selling hard modded s9's en mass.  Something like a s9 at 800-900 watts ,  running 10+ th , dreamy I know. I'd support it.

[mikeywith]

This post is why I did the thread.  In dec 2017. The s9 made 45 usd a day in coin.  You could sell one for three thousand dollars.  And people would be happy you sold it for that price.

Today the s17 pro makes 14 A day you would be loved by all if you sold one for the same 3000.

The difference between Dec 2017 and Aug 2019 is the overall market condition , at that point of time there was way less people (buyers) who knew about bitcoin to begin with, there were not enough buyers to push the gear prices the way they do now.

Look at how fast the S17 sells on bitmain ,also notice that price went down like 30% yet hashrate is only increasing, everyone and their grandmother wants to buy the gears now before the bull run kicks in , everyone thinks that the same scenario that happened to S9 will happen to S17 and that pretty soon they will be making 50-100$ a day of their S17 which they bought for 4000$ and that later on they can sell it for 8k or even 10k.

I would argue what happens if coins moon to 30 k. Will we see s17 for 8000?

Likely YES , I believe that from now until the next bear market or the halving ,gear prices will tend to increase specially after we break 20k , difficulty will take way too long to adjust, gears like the S17 will be making a fortune , the newbies will pay 8-10k $ easily.

Everything above is based on the assumption that BTC price is going to rise and not collapse back to the 3-6k range.

[philipma1957]

well if btc goes up my  900th will be okay. It will earn a lot.

buying  gear now is most certainly stupid for me to do.
 
The bull is too occupied  to do a full  bull run as
The bull is busy getting laid as the asic companies are fucking everyone over.

The asic companies are trying to squeeze every last drop out of that bull  far before it is ready to pop.

But as I said all spec on my part.

[Philipma1957cellphone]

Can't access main account. In my current position The only way for me to lose money in btc is to buy coins or gear. So for me I have to mine and sell some coins while I also hold some coins. The risk of that is possible smaller profit. But the profit is certain . Every time the industry has been here and put me in this spot it has crashed. In under four months. So I am playing things for a crash.

[wndsnb]

well if btc goes up my  900th will be okay. It will earn a lot.

buying  gear now is most certainly stupid for me to do.
 
The bull is too occupied  to do a full  bull run as
The bull is busy getting laid as the asic companies are fucking everyone over.

The asic companies are trying to squeeze every last drop out of that bull  far before it is ready to pop.

But as I said all spec on my part.

I wouldn't call those last couple statements speculation.... that seems to be the only thing you can 100% count on.

[wndsnb]

... That price jump pretty much dropped us in November 2017 - Gear several generations old is now profitable again, and there isn't enough new gear available right now. Now manufacturers are scrambling to ramp up production, which costs a lot and they had just been selling gear at a steal. So they know people want it and are just dangling out everything they have, which probably includes gear reserved for warranty repair/replacement, charging in the irrational realm because someone will pay it.

I'm curious to see how many of these pre-orders arrive on time.

Very interesting. This seems to be right up Bitmain's alley ... They are probably ramping up production of their next-gen miner now and will flood the market with it all at once at a price their competition can't come close to competing with.

If they released a huge batch of high efficiency miners at a low enough price, could they force the difficulty high enough to make the s9s unprofitable? Wouldn't that be in their interest, since it would force the farms to buy new miners to replace all their s9s?

[philipma1957]

This question is hard to answer.  Pretend bitmain could do that.  If would drive btc prices lower based  on past history.  When they flooded market with s-5 to crush  the spondoolies s20  btc dropped to 183.

Once spondoolies was busted out they raised gear back up  I guess Jan 2015 to Sept 2015  for market to move from 182 to 400.

They flooded market with s9 last April-July 2018  market tanked..

I think they are better off with slow sales of high priced gear.  But I am an outsider looking in at bitmain.

The S-17 pro 53th  is better then any gear  there is  based on 36 watts a th at lpm.  Now based on 4200 price it is not that good.

or based on 2950 wait til dec price it is also not so good.

[sidehack]

WhyFy - I'm still working toward building gear bigger than hobby-scale, but still geared toward quiet home mining. I've already got half a design for the next-gen stuff that'll replace my sticks and pods, and if it works it'll extend easily to an S1-chassis blade. Right now I'm waiting to hear back from the ASIC supplier about access to some protocol source to finish the design, and more importantly bulk supply of ASICs, but the (not yet impossible) goal is to be moving a new stick and pod by Christmas that should beat my BM1387 gear by roughly 70% at the top-end. If everything works out we could be looking at an 8TH ~500W S1-chassis miner next spring. IF everything works out.

Not sure what it'd take to build out a low-power 2-board S9 that was also quiet, but it's not impossible.

[nuanicaj]

WhyFy - I'm still working toward building gear bigger than hobby-scale, but still geared toward quiet home mining. I've already got half a design for the next-gen stuff that'll replace my sticks and pods, and if it works it'll extend easily to an S1-chassis blade. Right now I'm waiting to hear back from the ASIC supplier about access to some protocol source to finish the design, and more importantly bulk supply of ASICs, but the (not yet impossible) goal is to be moving a new stick and pod by Christmas that should beat my BM1387 gear by roughly 70% at the top-end. If everything works out we could be looking at an 8TH ~500W S1-chassis miner next spring. IF everything works out.

Not sure what it'd take to build out a low-power 2-board S9 that was also quiet, but it's not impossible.

Keep up the good work, great to hear bigger is coming.

[judypug1956]

Yeah 8th at 500 watts is nice.