bitcoin chartists live in fantasy land

[custard_pudding]

technical anaylists, chartists it is fantasy.
Any one can draw line on a chart, draw a line and say a 1000 words, but it is all in the past.
What matters is in the future, and then their lines are 50% right, and 50% wrong.
The future price of bitcoin depends on many things, many have not even been spoken of yet, make a list of good , and bad what could happen.

And only then decide whether to buy or sell.

[Kakmakr]

We always say predicting the future Bitcoin price is like looking into a fake crystal ball, it is absolutely worthless. A lot of the future predictions is based on thumb sucking statistics and cherry picking some price history and projecting that into the future as if the Bitcoin history has a set price pattern.   

Yes, we know there are certain predictable events that might push the price upwards and downwards, like the Halving and Black Friday, but the impact is usually hyped, so it is insignificant. 

[oleg681010]

The impact of any event is often negligible. But the impact of large investors is very significant

[slaman29]

technical anaylists, chartists it is fantasy.
Any one can draw line on a chart, draw a line and say a 1000 words, but it is all in the past.
What matters is in the future, and then their lines are 50% right, and 50% wrong.
The future price of bitcoin depends on many things, many have not even been spoken of yet, make a list of good , and bad what could happen.

And only then decide whether to buy or sell.

I don't disagree, but I think most chartists already realize this fact, and they're okay with it.

You know, most people who aren't into Bitcoin would call us Bitcoiners people living in fantasy too. And 10 years later, after ATHs and Bitcoin being talked about by presidents etc, you know for sure it's not a fantasy to us, but to people outside, it still is.

[DdmrDdmr]

Apart from the classical technical analysis, some take the approach of using predictive modelling technique such as Neural Networks to try to predict a certain goal (i.e. tomorrow’s BTC price). Although some of these models may come close in appearance (see  https://towardsdatascience.com/using-recurrent-neural-networks-to-predict-bitcoin-btc-prices-c4ff70f9f3e4, specifically chart Plot.ly Chart for BTC Price Predictions), close is generally not enough to act upon accordingly, and these type of models should try (not easy) to identify and process external factors that are not present on a historical data numbers (i.e. buzz, fud, sentiment, etc.), elements that may move buyers/sellers to action.
 

[atjiat]

We now live not only in a fantasy world but also in the world of our desires.  What is happening on the cryptocurrency market can neither be explained nor forecasted for further developments.  If I previously believed that all cryptocurrency is tied to the price of Bitcoin, then this year I was convinced that this is not so.  At the end of 2018, Bitcoin fell to $ 2,500, and from the beginning of 2019 until July, Bitcoin rose to almost $ 15,000.  But not a single altcoin followed Bitcoin, and even Ethereum raised its price very slowly, while Ethereum had much better results than other altcoin.

[rdluffy]

This is totally true, I always say that about these predictions
It's funny to try to predict BTC prices, but it's not depends on charts

A smart way to deal with BTC is follow the trends, stay alert with the news, read this forum and you will maximize the chances to make profits

[SquallLeonhart]

What is then the essence of making bitcoin technical analysis when everything still depends in 50:50 chances, I don’t usually believe in bitcoin charts also because I feel the market is just too complicated for now for anyone to really be able to predict the price of bitcoin using technical analyses or past record because there are so many factors that bitcoin movement is always relying on every day.

This is one of the main reasons why I prefer to just rely on news first to make my decisions than to rely on technical analysis that usually does not work that much for me. Some of the charts that has tallied with the real action of bitcoin to me is just coincidence, I don’t really much in the analysis by these analysis till I verified myself using other methods.

[Jet Cash]

Unfortunately, by the time the news is reported, it may be too late. Insider trading will have already taken advantage of the facts. Chart analysis can alert you to the possibility of change. Charts can also highlight trends, and the impact of social behaviour on prices. Unfortunately, there are so many speculators relying on charts in the world of Bitcoin, that the whales and other manipulators try to take advantage of them. It's good fun trying to guess what they are up to, but I don't seem to be very good at it.

[fulled]

I never believe in TA for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, i think TA will not gonna work for bitcoin, TA will only work for older assets like stocks

[beachbummer]

I never believe in TA for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, i think TA will not gonna work for bitcoin, TA will only work for older assets like stocks

Just curious about what you kind of analysis you do if you do not use TA?

[pooya87]

that is only partly right in my opinion.

majority of those who are doing technical analysis and "draw lines" on the charts don't really know what they are doing. most of them are literary choosing random points on the chart and link them together with a line and call it "TA".
a couple of weeks ago someone did exactly that and was calling for a drop to $4000 with his random lines!
basically you can reach any price if your points are random enough

but that doesn't mean TA itself is 50/50. TA is still good if done right. it is not supposed to predict the future, nothing can. but it is supposed to show you trends and the most possible scenarios and basically help you understand what is going on in the market by looking at a chart.

[stomachgrowls]

technical anaylists, chartists it is fantasy.
Any one can draw line on a chart, draw a line and say a 1000 words, but it is all in the past.
What matters is in the future, and then their lines are 50% right, and 50% wrong.
The future price of bitcoin depends on many things, many have not even been spoken of yet, make a list of good , and bad what could happen.

And only then decide whether to buy or sell.

You hate too much technicals,arent you?  No one can indeed predict the future or things ahead specially to this very speculative market. Charting and technicals might not be precise but these things are way more better than on having a blind trading or doing trades without any basis or analysis.So better not to hate it because you like it or not, there would be those chart gurus.

[bitbunnny]

No one ever said that technical analisys is exact science that will give you all answers you want. Like amy other prediction, it's just a possible guidline but not something you should stick too. Anything in any kind of prediction isn't precise or verified and everyone who uses such predictions should be awae of that.

[SquallLeonhart]

I never believe in TA for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, i think TA will not gonna work for bitcoin, TA will only work for older assets like stocks

Those who are extremely good actually use technical analysis successfully for the prediction of cryptocurrency a lot, but not everyone can easily do it, unlike Forex and stock trading where people can easily make use of charts to predict the future price of bitcoin. Everyone all have what works for them.

I believe more in fundamental analysis and some other few strategies and for me, news has actually worked a lot in helping me to easily predict the price of cryptocurrency, I mean the cryptocurrencies that are well known, but same as fundamental analysis works for me is the same way technical analysis works for others, and recently, a mate came on this forum to condemn FA and said TA is what works, both works, it all depends of our level off understanding.

[Slow death]

I saw a lot of charts like this:



on https://www.tradingview.com

I wondered how likely these tradingview guys were to get right in their analysis? and the answer was not long, they constantly fail in their analysis. But the question I have is: if they constantly fail the analyzes they do, why do they continue to post analyzes they do?

[audaciousbeing]

technical anaylists, chartists it is fantasy.
Any one can draw line on a chart, draw a line and say a 1000 words, but it is all in the past.
What matters is in the future, and then their lines are 50% right, and 50% wrong.
The future price of bitcoin depends on many things, many have not even been spoken of yet, make a list of good , and bad what could happen.

And only then decide whether to buy or sell.

This is something I have always maintained. The only thing the past is good for is just for prediction, other than that, there is nothing else to be done and it should not even be relied upon when making decision about the future because the past is the past and its gone. The factors and happenings that led to the result of the past are not what is applicable today that then means that there is no basis whatsoever to rely upon in making conclusions on how the future will look like.

Unfortunately, with this sacrosanct fact being known to a lot of people, we still see people behaving in certain ways and expecting the different result thinking it would happen like it happen in the past and this is mostly happening in crypto. People believing let me just chill and relax when the price of bitcoin is ready, it will rise on its own.

[leowonderful]

TA's not meant to be the sole thing you use to predict the future, because if you're utilizing TA like that you're doing it wrong and you will likely end up unprofitable at trading. TA's good as an aid in helping you make good entries and whether to go long, short or even just sit out of the markets, and good for helping you identify good places to set stoplosses and places to take profit, though. TA's also at least partially a self-fulfilling prophecy, so some common patterns do play out, though there are also times they don't.