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Author Topic: Sports betting: Possible to capitalize on shifting lines?  (Read 146 times)
nutildah
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August 18, 2019, 04:50:20 AM
 #1

The regular NFL season is only a couple of week away and I'm thinking about going pretty hard at it this year. I'm not great at picking NFL teams -- its pretty tough and my understanding is that college is somewhat easier. However, college games can be boring to watch, and I like to watch the games I'm betting on (of course).

Anyway, short of paying close attention to everything, having an idea of how important which variables are, and a little bit of luck, are all pretty important to picking a NFL winner.

However, I'd like to revisit a theory I had earlier about shifting lines... For example, lets say the Patriots are playing the Chargers and open up at a -7 point spread (in favor of the Patriots), then by game day the line has shifted to -5... This means that a bunch of bets had been coming in for the Chargers since the line opened.

Let's say this is not unique to 1 sportsbook, and that all of them have made this change.

How do you use this information to make a more informed bet? Do you bet on the Chargers since a lot of money is pouring into them, or do you bet on the Patriots, because now you can get 2 points for free as compared to when the line first opened? What are your thoughts? Does this make any sense?

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August 18, 2019, 05:45:35 AM
Merited by nutildah (1)
 #2

Think you will need my contribution here. I will be betting NFL and college football heavier aswell. Some of my bets from last season, and for the haters it also shows my 5 euros baseball bets, i posted on my thread https://imageshack.com/user/WiseInvestor

Back to topic. Currently you are talking about linemovement, 15 years ago everybody bet their bets, watching linemovements. Nowadays it just dosent  work anymore, books are sharp.

Linemovement is caused by many factors, Like weather, yes weather can also cause linemovement, and over/under. Public % on a bet, in your case, we dont know the public % on the patriots. Its most likely heavy public money on chargers that is causing the linemovement. Also patriots might have an injury, that caused moevemnt back to -5. Sharp bettors causing movement, sometimes bookies shade their lines. Public would think, its moving because sharp money is coming in. But it is just a bookies trap, to think u like that. Gotta consider all these things, before just judging the pure line movement.

Nfl is harder to cap than college football. Also it is not boring, u would see more offense and high scoring games in college games.
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August 18, 2019, 06:26:29 AM
 #3

Think you will need my contribution here. I will be betting NFL and college football heavier aswell. Some of my bets from last season, and for the haters it also shows my 5 euros baseball bets, i posted on my thread https://imageshack.com/user/WiseInvestor

Back to topic. Currently you are talking about linemovement, 15 years ago everybody bet their bets, watching linemovements. Nowadays it just dosent  work anymore, books are sharp.

Linemovement is caused by many factors, Like weather, yes weather can also cause linemovement, and over/under. Public % on a bet, in your case, we dont know the public % on the patriots. Its most likely heavy public money on chargers that is causing the linemovement. Also patriots might have an injury, that caused moevemnt back to -5. Sharp bettors causing movement, sometimes bookies shade their lines. Public would think, its moving because sharp money is coming in. But it is just a bookies trap, to think u like that. Gotta consider all these things, before just judging the pure line movement.

Nfl is harder to cap than college football. Also it is not boring, u would see more offense and high scoring games in college games.

I know this isn't an easy hypothetical, but let's say between the line open and game day there weren't any discernible changes: no injuries, shifts in weather, etc. The only thing that noticeably changed was the line, from -7 to -5 Patriots. Does that influence your betting decision in any way?

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August 18, 2019, 06:53:50 AM
 #4

Yes i would still take this into account and look further down, what caused this line movement. First of all you always gotta know why the line moved. Even if you dont know the real reason, make yourself clear why it moved/what caused. It took me 7 years to understand this kind of thing. I can watch  the lines, and tell which games are trap games, which not. Even if im not always right. At least i can make analysis for myself.

It is still not a good example. cos we dont know the public % on a team. Public % and money % on a team are 2 different things. It can be 80% of public on one patriots and sharp bettors 20% on chargers. That means there would be still more sharp money on chargers, which caused 2point movement.
You will never know which team has more money on, you have to guess, by making these analysis. Sharps are not winning everyday. Sometimes public wins 5 days in a row, then the next 5 days public burns and sharps taking their cut. Thats how bookies operate.

Check the spread % and other info on here https://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-betting-odds

Line movement is just a lil thing part of betting. Look also rushing yards per team/player, team defense, can they attack, put up points. If the team has more defensive side or offensive side.

So normally line is moving cos of heavy public action, thats 70% of the case.
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August 18, 2019, 08:00:09 AM
Last edit: August 18, 2019, 12:22:59 PM by crwth
 #5

There are two things that I could think of in my personality.

  • The Gambler - It's when I'm not thinking of the risk that is involved and just being optimistic
  • The Scientist - This is my personality where I use the scientific method that I'm familiar and make the sound decisions on how to gamble

The factors that I consider when using different personalities of mine or you could call them strategies is just the part where if I have TIME to analyze the current situation and if I'm going to be willing to do the necessary research. If not, I would go gambler mode.

Probably if you were going to ask me if I would bet in the additional chance that was given, I would take it and capitalize on it.

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August 18, 2019, 08:16:53 AM
 #6

I'm not a fan of this game, I usually bet on NBA game but I used the same principle in any game.

When the line moves, of course I should bet on the team where there's less money on it even if it's the favorites or the underdog.

However, I don't do that automatically, because I know in the world of gambling, line movement can also be trap and if we decided right way, we might loss easily. Also, I think any games that's available for sports betting can be rig, so I believe if we want to win in the long run, we should always bet against the public, I know you know what I mean.

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August 18, 2019, 11:52:40 PM
Last edit: August 19, 2019, 12:07:47 AM by ralle14
 #7

It's difficult to take advantage whenever the lines moves. I'll get the extra points if i'm betting on the underdog or take the current line if i'm on the favorite. Sometimes do some extra bets live if there's no action on the first minutes of the match or if the score is close after the first half for that higher odds. If my bets are locked in very early then the lines moved to the underdog i'd go with what I have, most shifts that I experience is because of the public.

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August 19, 2019, 01:02:35 AM
Merited by nutildah (1)
 #8

Markets get more accurate closer to kickoff, so if the line shifts from -7 to -5, you should assume that the +/- 5 line is the accurate one and that +/-7 was inaccurate. If you can analyze games and bet before the line shifts in your favour, you'll likely almost end up with +EV bets. Otherwise, you can't really capitalize on the shifting lines.

Sharps found value on the +7 line and bet it down to +5. If you bet the +5, you're just chasing steam and betting where all value has been taken. If you bet the -5 line, you're almost certainly just taking a coin flip at odds around 1.96.

NFL is probably the most efficient market out there, so you won't have any real advantages by getting the 2 'free' points. If it was a less efficient market such as eSports, you might be able to capitalize as eSports generally shift based on volume and not just sharp action at the moment.

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August 19, 2019, 04:25:32 AM
 #9

Markets get more accurate closer to kickoff, so if the line shifts from -7 to -5, you should assume that the +/- 5 line is the accurate one and that +/-7 was inaccurate. If you can analyze games and bet before the line shifts in your favour, you'll likely almost end up with +EV bets. Otherwise, you can't really capitalize on the shifting lines.

Sharps found value on the +7 line and bet it down to +5. If you bet the +5, you're just chasing steam and betting where all value has been taken. If you bet the -5 line, you're almost certainly just taking a coin flip at odds around 1.96.

This also makes a decent amount of sense... Sounds like its not gonna be easy no matter what I try to do, but I like to go into each game with some kind of logical basis behind why I am betting how I am betting, and not just "because I like the team." I just want to start with a hypothesis and then see if after a certain number of games it has merit or is rejected.

In the latter half of a season I can usually do a little bit better by taking ATS into consideration, and seeing who needs what games in order to get into the playoffs.

In any case, NFL is my favorite sport, and of course it always makes a game more fun to watch if you have action on it.

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August 19, 2019, 05:54:59 AM
 #10

It's difficult to take advantage whenever the lines moves.
That's not the way I see it, I feel it's the opposite, when the line moves, this means that the said event has a big money on it, most of the time I believe the reason why the line most is because of the public bets focus on one side only and the bookies has to adjust to have some balance action.

In that case, I'll bet on the opposite team as based on my experience, they usually won.

 
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August 19, 2019, 08:35:26 AM
 #11

This information is like a double edged sword,sometimes the bookies are afraid of the many bets coming in but some other times the bookies can just play with your emotions and do a line change for this.

I have seen in sport betting an odd going from 1.65 to 1.30 and in the end this team lost 0-2 so changing lines are difficult to read.

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August 19, 2019, 11:57:47 AM
 #12

I can't really speak to online books, but in LV and other physical books it used to be easier.
The internet / tech has made the lines move, for lack of a better word 'smoothly'.
-6 to -5 to -4 etc all the way to -1 at times, as more data is processed by the people making the lines and more data on the best coming in is compiled.

In the old days, you saw a line at -5 it could stay there for days, then overnight it's a -1 and you are standing there going WTF?

So now, yeah it's probably still POSSIBLE, it's not going to be EASY.

-Dave

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August 19, 2019, 06:05:27 PM
 #13

This information is like a double edged sword, sometimes the bookies are afraid of the many bets coming in but some other times the bookies can just play with your emotions and do a line change for this.

I have seen in sport betting an odd going from 1.65 to 1.30 and in the end, this team lost 0-2 so changing lines are difficult to read.
If "the bookies can" manipulation the system by changing line then it is not fair and the bookies will keep winning.
I have bet of some sport and some time with the good winning odd on my side but still, lose and I think the line has been charged if not I ought to have won.
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August 20, 2019, 01:54:50 AM
 #14

I have to agree with Darkstar's comment regarding the matter. Line shifts closer to the event are often the most accurate it can get, as initial lines posted are only aggregates of the team's possible performance based on their last matchups, or H2H for that matter. That's why I don't usually bet hours before the game is played, instead I wait before there's only 30 minutes left then I make my decisions based on line shifts/movements from the original lines. Of course, if a team is performing better compared to the favorites/underdogs/whatever, I'll take that line regardless of line movement.

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August 20, 2019, 02:45:35 AM
 #15

Usually, people will choose the team which has a lot of money inside them because they think that the team will have a big chance to win. But if some people believe that the Patriots as their favorite team will win, then they will place their bets to them.

But the better thing that we can do is we need to collect as much information for each team so we can choose the team base on our research. And if somehow, our team loses then that means, we need to analyze deeper to know what mistake that we've made so we can fix that for the next game.

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August 21, 2019, 04:07:46 PM
 #16

The regular NFL season is only a couple of week away and I'm thinking about going pretty hard at it this year. I'm not great at picking NFL teams -- its pretty tough and my understanding is that college is somewhat easier. However, college games can be boring to watch, and I like to watch the games I'm betting on (of course).

Anyway, short of paying close attention to everything, having an idea of how important which variables are, and a little bit of luck, are all pretty important to picking a NFL winner.

However, I'd like to revisit a theory I had earlier about shifting lines... For example, lets say the Patriots are playing the Chargers and open up at a -7 point spread (in favor of the Patriots), then by game day the line has shifted to -5... This means that a bunch of bets had been coming in for the Chargers since the line opened.

Let's say this is not unique to 1 sportsbook, and that all of them have made this change.

How do you use this information to make a more informed bet? Do you bet on the Chargers since a lot of money is pouring into them, or do you bet on the Patriots, because now you can get 2 points for free as compared to when the line first opened? What are your thoughts? Does this make any sense?

In my experience of SportsBetting, I have come to discover that odds changing sometimes does not necessarily mean people are pouring more money into the team with the initial odd. Several factors are responsible for that one of them is that the general feel of the spectators could mean that the attention is shifting. Another is timing when the match is about to happen because as the match is close to start the options become clearer and the team to lose also becomes clearer so for the Bookie to be on a safer side, they adjust the odds in other to minimize their losses should in case a lot of people have bet on the winning team.

 
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