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Author Topic: Here is why you shouldn't trade bitcoin based on the CNBC Bitcoin News  (Read 549 times)
SuperTA
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August 19, 2019, 10:14:14 AM
Last edit: August 19, 2019, 01:28:19 PM by SuperTA
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 #1

Here is why you shouldn't trade bitcoin based on the CNBC news and predictions. This can prevent many short term loses so i decided to share this with you.

For example, (12 Aug) CNBC and the other crypto sites published news how Goldman Sachs is recommending to buy bitcoin. Soon after that bitcoin started to fall and in the next days bitcoin dropped 17%.

90% of the CNBC Bitcoin News Predictions are the perfect contra-indicator. In other words, if you made a bet against their bitcoin predictions, you had at least 80% to 90% chance to be successful. At least from dec 2017 to aug 2018. (links bellow)

CNBC Bitcoin News from Dec 2017 to Aug 2019 gave you exactly the opposite direction of what they're predicting or signaling for bitcoin.  This is the reason why you should't trade based on their news. If you follow CNBC Bitcoin News and their predictions you would probably be a millionaire if you would trade the opposite way of what they predict or tell you.
I covered most of their bitcoin news from 2019, 2018 and the end of 2017.
 
I spent quite some time to check all of their btc news, videos, tweets, websites and i prepared a list of the news which were one of the best contradicting indicators you could find.

Let's start with 2019

January 2019

(8 Jan 2019) CNBC published news how their bitcoin expert is betting on a bigger rally ahead for bitcoin. On that day bitcoin reached it's local peak at 4110 usd.  After that it started to drop. In 2 days bitcoin droped 14.8% to 3500 usd. So 2 days later (10 Jan) they published news where they stated that they're betting for more pain for bitcoin.
The next day (11 Jan) it went the opposite direction and bitcoin went 6% to the upside.

February 2019

(19 Feb and 21 Feb) CNBC made 2 articles how bitcoin boom won't last and bitcoin could have a breakdown. After 2 days bitcoin went the opposite direction and gained 8.22%. (4187 usd)

March 2019

Surprisingly March 2019 was one of the months where they actually made a few good calls.
But this month is an exception (from Dec 2017 to Aug 2019) in March there was no major contradicting signals.

April 2019

(2 Apr) CNBC published news about bitcoin rise has something to do with the aprils fools day joke, so bitcoin rise wasn't taken too serious.
The next day bitcoin goes 14% more to the upside. (23 Apr) they mentioned bitcoing going to infinity and beyond. On that day bitcoin made the peak at 5630 usd.
After CNBC news it went the opposite direction again. The next day bitcoin dropped 4.3%. After this fall they published new article how bitcoin rally could run further.
The day after this news it drops 11% more to 4995 usd.
So when it fell down to 4995 usd (26 Apr) they published article how bitcoin is falling fast, down 400 hundred usd in just a few minutes.
That day (26 Apr) bitcoin made a local bottom 4995 usd. After CNBC news , from that day it went only up and up. (the opposite direction)
The next day bitcoin went 4.7% up. After 7 days it went 14% up and in 2 weeks it went 52% up.

May 2019

(9 May) CNBC released 2 news how bitcoin is back to 6.000 usd but it won't hold here and could have a pullback.
The next day it went the opposite way, 7.7% to the upside. In 3 days 27% up and in 1 week bitcoin went 40% to the upside.
(14 May) they released news about bitcoin fomo that could bring crypto back to all time highs.
The next day (15 May) bitcoin droped 8.6% and in 3 days (17 May) droped 25.7% to 6183 usd.
18 May, when bitcoin already made a local bottom, CNCB released news about experts who say bitcoin could go more to the downside.
It went the opposite direction - the next day it went 15.3% up to 8300 usd.
(21 May) CNBC released news, bitcoin to fall back to 7000 usd. That didn't happened.
It went the opposite direction reaching almost 14.000 usd, so twice as much they predicted.
(28 May) CNBC News: Bitcoin Still has some legs.
The next day it was quite the opposite- bitcoin dropped 4.28%. After 1 week it dropped 15.4%  to 7440 usd.

June 2019

(10 Jun) When bitcoin was at the local bottom, CNBC realesed News: Bitcoin is underperforming the S&P 500. After that news bitcoin was doing the opposite thing. It started rising and it went to almost 14.000, made 83% gain in 2 weeks and outperformed every major asset in the world!
(12 Jun) CNBC News about bitcoin rising and breaking 8.000 usd. The next day bitcoin falls 3%.
(17 Jun) CNBC published news about bitcoin and speculating for bitcoin to go straight for $10K.
Nope, bitcoin goes the opposite direction again and falls 6% to 8900 usd.
(24 Jun) CNBC news saying that bitcoin is breaking 11k but they have a warning for all the FOMO investors out there.
So this was a warning not to fomo in. Too bad because in the next 2 days bitcoin pumped 30%. (26 Jun) when it pumped 30% they published news about bitcoin surging.
The next day bitcoin went the opposite direction of surging and dropped 25%.
(27 Jun) when it dropped 25% they released 3 news about bitcoin.
1st news about bitcoin losing steam, 2nd news Nowogratz talking he wished he sold more yesterday and the 3rd news about bitcoin futures crashing.
The first news was at 10.700 usd. The next day bitcoin was quite the opposite. It went up to 12.400 or 16% up.

July 2019

(2 Jul) CNBC published news about Bitcoin waking up on the wrong side of the bed and falling below $10,000.
That day bitcoin was at the local bottom at 9630 usd. The next day it went 25% up.
(8 Jul) CNBC released news how Bitcoin could hit $30,000 before the next major pullback.
Guess what, it had a major pullback in the next days. Bitcoin crashed from 13.000 to 9000 usd. That was a 30% pullback.
(18 Jul) CNBC realesed news about bitcoin futures getting rekt.
The next day bitcoin was quite the opposite of getting rekt because it went up 15%.
(25 Jul) CNBC released news about bitcoin surging. The next day bitcoin dropped 5%.
(29 Jul) CNBC released news - bitcoin taking a hit on today back down below the 10k level.
That was at 9500 usd. In the next days bitcoin went to 12.300 usd or 29% up.

August 2019

(5 Aug) CNBC released news how bitcoin will rally to new highs.
That news was released almost at the local peak at the 12.000 levels. The next day it was already 6.7% lower.
(12 Aug) CNBC released news how Goldman Sachs just called for a massive bitcoin breakout and recommending to buy bitcoin.
From that day bitcoin started to decline. The next day it dropped 7% and in next 3 days it dropped 17%.

Links

8 Jan 2019
CNBC News: Bitcoin soaring nearly 22% in just the past month and @jimiuorio is betting on a bigger rally ahead
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1082705067386523649

10 Jan 2019
Bitcoin falling back below $4000 today and @AnthonyGriz is betting on more pain ahead
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1083437943514116096

19 Feb 2019
Bitcoin finding some life today, but @JeffKilburg says the bitcoin boom won't last.
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1097921732269215749

21 Feb 2019
Bitcoin trading within inches of the $4,000 mark, but @jimiuorio says there could be a breakdown ahead
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1098647243387748352

2 Apr 2019
#Bitcoin surged overnight -- and according to @andrewrsorkin it might have something to do with an April Fool's joke....
https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1113074074383781890

23 Apr 2019
Bitcoin to infinity and beyond? @JimIuorio thinks so. Here's how he's trading $BTC
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1120739393529102336

25 Apr 2019
Is the crypto winter finally over? @BrianStutland says the Bitcoin rally could run even further
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1121463886211944448

26 Apr 2019
Bitcoin is falling fast right now. Down ~$400 in just a few minutes...
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1121541298480144384

9 May 2019
Bitcoin is back above $6K but @jeffkilburg says it could be due for a pullback $BTC
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1126537457997099009
Bitcoin breaking back above $6,000, but @jeffkilburg says buyer beware: it won't hodl here $BTC
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1126538322715795462

14 May 2019
Bitcoin bull Tom Lee of @fundstrat says a FOMO rally could take the crypto back to all-time highs.
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1128357700084146177

18 May 2019
Beware the bitcoin boom? The cryptocurrency just lost $21 billion in 24 hours, and experts say it could have more downside to go
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1129763574086287362

21 May 2019
Has Bitcoin come too far, too fast? @AnthonyGrizsays it could be time for a move back to $7,000
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1130884680042074112

28 May 2019
It may be a FOMO rally, but @JimIuorio says the Bitcoin boom still has some legs. Here's how he's trading Bitcoin futures
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1133429443261870085

10 Jun 2019
Bitcoin is underperforming the S&P 500 this month...wow
https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1138202952580157440

12 Jun 2019
Bitcoin futures on the rise this morning and breaking through the $8,000 level
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1138793558675263489

17 Jun 2019
Bitcoin is booming to its highest price in a year and the Chart Master says it's heading straight for $10K
https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1140732730872946691

24 Jun 2019
Bitcoin breaking through $11K over the weekend but the #bitcoin baller @BKBrianKelly
 has a warning for all the FOMO investors out there
https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1143274703806783490

26 Jun
Bitcoin futures surging
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1143867716614254592

27 Jun
Is bitcoin starting to lose steam (at 10.700 usd) the next day 12.400 usd
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1144295487358545923
Nowogratz: I sold a little bit yesterday. I  wish i sold a lot.
https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1144238753130655744
Bitcoin futures getting crushed today
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1144227746589171714

2 Jul 2019
Bitcoin waking up on the wrong side of the bed this morning, falling below $10,000
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1146044702602473472

8 Jul 2019
Bitcoin bull @MarkYusko says the cryptocurrency could hit $30,000 before the next major pullback
https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1148341312363651072

18 Jul 2019
Bitcoin futures getting rekt again today as the cryptocurrency slides further below $10,000 $BTC
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1151841279136976899

25 Jul 2019
Bitcoin surging today, reclaiming the $10,000 level after yesterday’s losses $BTC
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1154375802580078592

29 Jul 2019
Bitcoin taking a hit on today, back down below the $10,000 level $BTC
https://twitter.com/CNBCFuturesNow/status/1155830504475824128

5 Aug 2019
Bitcoin will rally to new highs as market mayhem continues, says @fundstrat's Tom Lee.
https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1158494222774919168

12 Aug 2019
Goldman Sachs just called for a massive #bitcoin breakout. @BKBrianKelly gives his take.
https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1161027353163784197
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August 19, 2019, 10:45:00 AM
Merited by PrimeNumber7 (1)
 #2

Whatever CNBC said on various occasions, are speculation only and speculation can't be termed as NEWS per say! News have a different meaning and purpose! See below examples,

A country legalizes or bans bitcoin - is a news!

Bitcoin will soon reach 15k - is a speculation and an attempt to grab mass attention!

If someone is betting on such speculations, only God can help him!

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August 19, 2019, 10:50:23 AM
 #3

True, but many newcomers are not aware of that. That's why i try to warn them.
You wouldn't believe how many posts i see about trading related to some news.
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August 19, 2019, 10:52:39 AM
 #4

Whatever CNBC said on various occasions, are speculation only and speculation can't be termed as NEWS per say! News have a different meaning and purpose! See below examples,

A country legalizes or bans bitcoin - is a news!

Bitcoin will soon reach 15k - is a speculation and an attempt to grab mass attention!

If someone is betting on such speculations, only God can help him!

Even "news" couldn't be readily trusted. Gone are the days when we had to buy them. Today, we cannot just simply equate news with facts or truth.

News are everywhere and many of them fake ones. Others are simply blown out of proportion.

"A country legalizes or bans bitcoin" in the news could actually just be a mere case of cryptocurrency exchange regulation.

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|ROULETTE
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TOWERS
DICE
CRASH
──── ─── ─
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August 19, 2019, 10:55:32 AM
 #5

The previous news was about Goldman Sachs recommending to buy bitcoin. I was pretty much sure that was a bad sign. Why would they help us? From that day (12 Aug) the price of bitcoin has dropped from 11.500 usd to 9400 usd or 17%.

Goldman Sachs just called for a massive #bitcoin breakout. @BKBrianKelly gives his take.
https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1161027353163784197
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August 19, 2019, 11:08:20 AM
 #6

Crypto market is not reacting to news as it used to in the times of the big bubble.
Todays news also is 99% twisted and fake, they are written only to get clicks and sell their ads, this is business and has nothing to do with price.
There should be no thoughts about trading on the news.

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August 19, 2019, 11:10:54 AM
 #7

Adoption would be the ideal news for bitcoin and there's a meme on the different platforms whenever CNBC reports about bitcoin. It's our call not to follow anyone's tip whether to sell or buy. They are pushing people to buy so that they can sell and whenever they tell people to sell, it means that they are buying and doing the opposite. I've noticed this also before when someone pointed it out on the CNBC crypto page and I've realized that he has point about the same comparison as what you did.




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August 19, 2019, 11:13:37 AM
 #8

Crypto market is not reacting to news as it used to in the times of the big bubble.
Todays news also is 99% twisted and fake, they are written only to get clicks and sell their ads, this is business and has nothing to do with price.
There should be no thoughts about trading on the news.

Can you explain why are CNBC predictions for bitcoin almost perfect contra-indicator. That means the price goes the opposite direction of what they recommend or say. (90% predictions). Does the price react if it goes the opposite direction or is this a coincidence? But hard to believe that 90% of all predictions can be a coincidence.
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August 19, 2019, 11:17:59 AM
 #9

Can you explain why are CNBC predictions for bitcoin almost perfect contra-indicator. That means the price goes the opposite direction of what they recommend or say.

Because you can't predict markets. It's that simple. There's so much unpredictable factors that could affect the markets that it's next to impossible to predict markets with pin-point accuracy.

At least we could say that CNBC is so good at being wrong.

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August 19, 2019, 11:20:05 AM
 #10

Can you explain why are CNBC predictions for bitcoin almost perfect contra-indicator. That means the price goes the opposite direction of what they recommend or say.

Because you can't predict markets. It's that simple. There's so much unpredictable factors that could affect the markets that it's next to impossible to predict markets with pin-point accuracy.

At least we could say that CNBC is so good at being wrong.

How? I just gave all CNBC links where you could predict the direction of the price based on CNBC predictions, by betting on the opposite direction. 90% of  their recommendations and statements were contra-indicator. That's a lot.
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August 19, 2019, 11:26:12 AM
 #11

How? I just gave all CNBC links where you could predict the direction of the price based on CNBC predictions, by betting on the opposite direction. 90% of  their recommendations and statements were contra-indicator. That's a lot.

I personally think that it's either just by chance or because they're simply wrong most of the time.

It could be by chance that they're 90% wrong because the sample size really is not that big. If it was like hundreds and hundreds of predictions and they still managed to be wrong 90% of the time, then I'll think twice and be really skeptical.

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August 19, 2019, 11:27:46 AM
 #12

I don't think that every single time crypto related positive news can open chances for traders actually. As a trader its not going to be a wise decision to wait for this kinda news every time to buy or sell. To be a successful trader you must have to build the knowledge of market analysis by your own. Whatever you say behind every investment experience always play a significant role and same for the crypto investment too.

In some cases genuine news make a big market influences and it happened so many times in the past. Nowadays some new cyprto blogs spread sudden news about crypto currency world to get subscribers on their website. From my opinion its important to choose the right and wrong one. Just follow the genuine one and blend it with your own prediction to continue a better trading


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August 19, 2019, 11:28:02 AM
 #13

Everybody knows that CNBC is an absolute joke when it comes to cryptocurrency market predictions, there are actually memes circulating on Telegram about how they are wrong about 90% of the time.

You can actually use their inaccuracy in your favor though, literally do the exact opposite of what CNBC says, then there's a 90% chance of success  Grin

@OP did you compile this information yourself, or is there a source?


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August 19, 2019, 11:37:44 AM
Last edit: August 19, 2019, 01:12:57 PM by SuperTA
 #14

Everybody knows that CNBC is an absolute joke when it comes to cryptocurrency market predictions, there are actually memes circulating on Telegram about how they are wrong about 90% of the time.

You can actually use their inaccuracy in your favor though, literally do the exact opposite of what CNBC says, then there's a 90% chance of success  Grin

@OP did you compile this information yourself, or is there a source?

I made this by myself. It took me quite some time to check all of their news - twitter links and to check all of the prices. I also checked CNBC bitcoin predictions  from 2018 and dec 2017 because dec 2017 was quite important. Who thinks that there is not enough CNBC predictions from Dec 2017 to Aug 2019? This year in 8 months they gave more than 30 bitcoin predictions or statements. If you also consider 2018 and 2017, there are quite a lot of them.

Besides that, i'll tell you one thing. Let's say you predict 200x times in which direction will bitcoin go, just by guessing . You couldn't be wrong 90% of the times even if you wanted to.
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August 19, 2019, 12:05:17 PM
 #15

You have done well by providing analysis and facts to back the claims up. However, it will be totally not right to conclude that one should not trade because of news because even though CNBC might have been wrong a lot of times, they are not not the only platform dishing out information or content related to crypto. Other sites can also be right. Another factor worthy of consideration is that the claim made by CNBC, was it found to have been false? if so then they need to be avoided but if not then its totally not right to blame them for what they have no control over which is the case here. Most news sites reports on past events but CNBC in the case of crypto does the future outcomes which can only be on predictions and nothing else.

 
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August 19, 2019, 12:10:15 PM
 #16

True, maybe i should change the title to CNBC news.
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August 19, 2019, 12:14:44 PM
 #17

Cnbc, generally tv, twitter fenomens etc.if they start to talk about any coin, it means they already bought it and now they want to sell.so just ignore them and make your own moves.

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August 19, 2019, 12:30:26 PM
 #18

True, but many newcomers are not aware of that. That's why i try to warn them.
You wouldn't believe how many posts i see about trading related to some news.

Yes, newcomers don't know about that. They need to filter every news they got so they can know if the news is right or wrong so they can react base on the market situations. Sometimes traders can be panic once they read some news that saying the market will fall or else and they are selling the bitcoin or altcoin with fast because they think that it will happen soon. But the reality, the market is not moving according to the news, but it moves to the other way.

Maybe the news needs to reach more readers and visitors so they make bombastic news to get the top position at the search engine so their website can be famous. We don't know what their reason to do that, but one thing that we should know, never trust the news before we search the other news to compare.



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August 19, 2019, 12:34:42 PM
 #19

Thanks for your share and observations, this had happened to me fifth times and would not forgets that which happened in May 18, this made me to lost almost $2000 all because of the said news which course my family member to ask me to sell out my portfolio, I believe that, that was the last time I will fall again for such immature News.

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August 19, 2019, 12:57:58 PM
 #20

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Nice depiction of how price prediction based news are, very often, what seems to be a wild guess, that tries to have a causative reason vouching for the prediction, but fails to measure the impact of it. I wonder however how many times the "got it right" (some are bound to be right, even if by chance) in that same period of study.

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