Abstract Analysis

[Millionero]

The chart below shows a sideways parabola fitted to bitcoin price minima on the log chart.  This curve hits ten thousand dollars in September 2020.



The next chart shows how long the parabola takes to catch up to the current price (or any price you choose, as far back as January 2011).  You can visualize it, on the first chart, as stretching a horizontal line from a point on the price chart until it intersects the parabola.  Today is August 18, 2019, bitcoin’s price is $10,370 and the equation this spreadsheet uses shows 406 days ahead (September 27, 2020).



This bash script will do the calculations

Code:

#!/bin/bash
read -p “refresh? (y/n) ” answer
while true; do

date –iso-8601
year=$(date +”%Y”)
month=$(expr $(date “+%m”) + 0)
day=$(expr $(date “+%d”) + 0)
#calculate variables for Julian day number
a=$(((14 – month)/12))
y=$((year + 4800 – a))
m=$((month + 12*a – 3))
#calculate Julian day number
jdn=$((day + (153*m+2)/5 + 365*y + y/4 – 32083))
#Sept 8, 2010 jdn=2455461
#d = days elapsed since Sept 8, 2010
d=$((jdn – 2455461))
bid=$(curl -s “https://www.bitstamp.net/api/ticker/” | jq -r “.bid”)
ask=$(curl -s “https://www.bitstamp.net/api/ticker/” | jq -r “.ask”)
#p is midmarket price to 6 decimals
p=$(bc -l <<< “scale=6; ($bid+$ask)/2”)
lnp=$(bc -l <<< “scale=6; l($p)”)
logp=$(bc -l <<< “scale=6; $lnp/2.302585”)
#calculate days ahead
dhed=$(bc -l <<< “scale=6; 114.434128*($logp+1.649827)*($logp+1.649827)-($d)”)
#shift decimal point in preparation for truncating extraneous figures
price1=$(bc -l <<< “scale=6; $p*100”)
#converting to integer truncates extra figures
price2=${price1%.*}
#shift decimal point back
price=$(bc -l <<< “scale=2; $price2/100”)
echo “current price”
echo $price
echo “days ahead”
echo ${dhed%.*}
#calculate root trend and price multiple
root=$(bc -l <<< “scale=8; e(2.30258509*(0.09348075*sqrt($d)-1.64982665))”)
mult1=$(bc -l <<< “scale=8; 100*$price/$root”)
mult=$(bc -l <<< “scale=2; ${mult1%.*}/100”)
echo “price multiple”
echo “$mult”

sleep 15s

if [[ $answer == y ]]; then
continue
else [[ $answer == n ]]
break
fi
done

[Millionero]

The equation for days ahead is      114.43413*(p+1.64983)^2 - d
where p is the log of the price and d is days elapsed since Sept 8, 2010
You can get days elapsed from this website or many others https://planetcalc.com/274/

If you use linux, the bash script in the OP will query the Bitstamp API for the current price, calculate and print the days ahead.

[fabiorem]

It seems to fit with the 100k scenario.

If bitcoin reaches 100k at the end of 2021, a crash would result in something between 10k and 20k, and the consequent bear market would be in the five digits area, instead of four.

[Wilhelm]

So after September 2020 we have lost the possibility to grab dem cheap $10k BTC  

And as I can see bitcoin peaks one digit above the line in it's fluctuation. So $100k is possible however a crash back to $10k is also possible in the next bear market.

Could you add a max fit parabola just to see where we could be headed?

[Millionero]

Could you add a max fit parabola just to see where we could be headed?

Even if you knew we were going to max out at 1300~1400 days ahead, like before, you would still have to know when it's going to happen in order to predict the dollar amount.
You can use this chart to look at some possibilities:



If the timing of tops continues to follow on the halvings at even intervals, we might top out at say q4 2021.
So you would take some date in q4 2021, add 1300 or 1400 days, and calculate the value of the parabola (actually as a function of time, a square root function).
The equation for that is
log of price = 0.09348075*sqrt(d)-1.64982665
where d is the number of days elapsed since Sept 8, 2010.
The bash script has some lines in it that calculate days elapsed, you could edit the script to make it so you can input your own arbitrary date and then echo the calculated result.  Or you can use a website that calculates days between two dates, like this one   https://planetcalc.com/274/
That should be enough info for you to work out the answer to question you asked about the next top.
You could contribute to the thread by letting us know what you find.

[exstasie]

The problem with this kind of approach is it places too much emphasis on the long term logarithmic trend. If Bitcoin adoption acts like a technological S-curve, any price projections derived from this will be too low by orders of magnitude.

My personal belief is we are heading towards a major inflection point in the long term chart. Maybe we have another bubble or two left like 2011, 2013, and 2017.....but the pattern is becoming too obvious. It's going to get front run. The log trend is either going to massively accelerate or fail in the coming years.

So after September 2020 we have lost the possibility to grab dem cheap $10k BTC

Likely sooner than that. Historically, Bitcoin never crosses below the previous cycle's ATH. So after we make a new ATH (probably in Q4 this year) I'd consider $20K the lowest possible bottom target in the next bear market. (Unless of course, the historic log trend fails)

[Millionero]

The sigmoid or "S-curve" is the tanh (hyperbolic tangent) function shifted and scaled.  Tanh has asymptotes at -1 and 1. Shrink it by half and move it up a little, and you have the logistic function (asymptotes at 0 and 1).  
On the linear scale, the logistic (sigmoid) function has an inflection point and asymptotes.
Charted on a log scale, the logistic function doesn't have an inflection point.  It has an upper asymptote, but no lower asymptote.
Here is what it looks like
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=y%3Dlog(1%2F(1%2Be%5E(-x))),-10%3C%3Dx%3C%3D10,-10%3C%3Dy%3C%3D1&x=11&y=7
As you can see, sigmoid is bounded above.  This logistic function doesn't look like a very good fit for bitcoin's past or future, what we think of it.  It doesn't seem to work with the real numbers.

Modeling the log of the price as a square root function of time, or to put it anther way, modeling the price as an exponential function of the square root of time, implies endless increase.  Most likely the model will have to be adjusted, it might even fail completely, but I don't intend to use ratiocination.  The empirical approach works much better.

[sana54210]

So after September 2020 we have lost the possibility to grab dem cheap $10k BTC  

And as I can see bitcoin peaks one digit above the line in it's fluctuation. So $100k is possible however a crash back to $10k is also possible in the next bear market.

Could you add a max fit parabola just to see where we could be headed?

If the market cash back to $10k, I am not sure that anyone would still lose, except those that invested at peak, then it would be their fault them, because by now, they ought to have learnt based on the last experience never to follow FOMO price. Before the price gets to that $100k, many people would have even cashed out, and I think bitcoin supply too would have been nearing the 21 million already, which is why I doubt of bitcoin will reach such amount so soon, I think it will still take like another 5 to 8 years before we can see that.

I don’t argue the possibility of this current bitcoin bull run growing to like $30k, and I think if it will crashes back to bear market from that value, the lowest it would crash back to would be that $10k. As time progresses, everything will be seen.

[BitHodler]

Likely sooner than that. Historically, Bitcoin never crosses below the previous cycle's ATH. So after we make a new ATH (probably in Q4 this year) I'd consider $20K the lowest possible bottom target in the next bear market. (Unless of course, the historic log trend fails)

I'm less optimistic in that aspect. I don't think we'll continue to get the growth rates that we have been rewarded with in the past. Bitcoin has never really had a true multi year stock market level bear market.

Once the institutions and their clients are on-board, who else is left to buy your coins? Investors are solely here for the gains and the excitement that this market offers. If you take that away, there isn't much left that crypto has going for it.

People assume there is so much latent demand for Bitcoin that it has to reach $100-$500k but that's just wishful thinking. I'm open to the possibility of a $100k wick in the distant future, but that's about it.

[Wilhelm]

Could you add a max fit parabola just to see where we could be headed?

Even if you knew we were going to max out at 1300~1400 days ahead, like before, you would still have to know when it's going to happen in order to predict the dollar amount.
You can use this chart to look at some possibilities:



If the timing of tops continues to follow on the halvings at even intervals, we might top out at say q4 2021.
So you would take some date in q4 2021, add 1300 or 1400 days, and calculate the value of the parabola (actually as a function of time, a square root function).
The equation for that is
log of price = 0.09348075*sqrt(d)-1.64982665
where d is the number of days elapsed since Sept 8, 2010.
The bash script has some lines in it that calculate days elapsed, you could edit the script to make it so you can input your own arbitrary date and then echo the calculated result.  Or you can use a website that calculates days between two dates, like this one   https://planetcalc.com/274/
That should be enough info for you to work out the answer to question you asked about the next top.
You could contribute to the thread by letting us know what you find.

I meant something like this... it shows a possible potential high price ....
My paint skills suck

[fabiorem]

Bitcoin has never really had a true multi year stock market level bear market.

Bitcoin is not a ordinary stock market asset.

To control it, TPTB will need to control the supply, like they did to gold.

[BitHodler]

Bitcoin is not a ordinary stock market asset.

To control it, TPTB will need to control the supply, like they did to gold.

It's traded like a stock, except for the fact that it has no underlying revenue and profit streams and therefore is more likely to experience 80ish % crashes, which we can see in the charts happened more than once already.

As for the control of supply, Coinbase is working towards that with their acquisitions. If you combine every single coin Coinbase currently holds, it's a number very near to 2 million Bitcoin, or nearly 10% of all the coins to ever be minted.

[Millionero]

I meant something like this... it shows a possible potential high price ....
My paint skills suck

You can slide the parabola straight up, straight to the left, or slide it at an angle, which it looks like you did.
That's fine.  I experimented with moving the curve around too, but there's so little data at the tops, three or four data points as opposed to dozens that line up on a curve at the bottom with a very high correlation coefficient (like 0.99), that I just couldn't justify it.  If it sounds like I'm saying that predicting the tops is futile, well I may just have to plead guilty on that one.  
Not completely futile.  If the model says bitcoin's 1000 or so days ahead and you're not getting scared, you're not paying very much attention.  That's actionable information*, and that's the significance of the second chart in the OP.

*not financial advice

[LoyceV]

The chart below shows a sideways parabola fitted to bitcoin price minima on the log chart.  This curve hits ten thousand dollars in September 2020.

I noticed another thing in this log view recently: whenever Bitcoin reaches an ATH, it never again dropped under the value it has approximately 6 months before the ATH.

[exstasie]

Likely sooner than that. Historically, Bitcoin never crosses below the previous cycle's ATH. So after we make a new ATH (probably in Q4 this year) I'd consider $20K the lowest possible bottom target in the next bear market. (Unless of course, the historic log trend fails)

I'm less optimistic in that aspect. I don't think we'll continue to get the growth rates that we have been rewarded with in the past. Bitcoin has never really had a true multi year stock market level bear market.

A serious recession would probably negatively affect the market.....to what extent, I don't know. A lot depends on when it happens. Looking at the SPX, we could easily see another 2-3 years of bull before another 2000 or 2008 type event. Considering we're still in the early stages of a Bitcoin bull market, we could go exponentially higher from here before that sets in.

Once the institutions and their clients are on-board, who else is left to buy your coins?

It starts with high-risk hedge funds. Then institutional traders, then conventional investment banks. Then conservative pension funds and other asset managers. Eventually, even central banks may need to hedge fiat currency exposure with more reliable stores of value. They already do it with gold.

People assume there is so much latent demand for Bitcoin that it has to reach $100-$500k but that's just wishful thinking. I'm open to the possibility of a $100k wick in the distant future, but that's about it.

Thankfully, that seems to be the consensus around here.

[buwaytress]

So after September 2020 we have lost the possibility to grab dem cheap $10k BTC  

And as I can see bitcoin peaks one digit above the line in it's fluctuation. So $100k is possible however a crash back to $10k is also possible in the next bear market.

Could you add a max fit parabola just to see where we could be headed?

Sounds good to me if this is the case, one more year to get cheap BTC. But damn I'll still never be close enough to my "dream" goal that even in 2016 was tough enough.

The "good" news is you're right. Considering that 90% retracement from an ATH isn't unusual for BTC, a $10k crash is not only possible but expected (if the ATH is merely $100k).

Loving all the conjecture =D

[Wilhelm]

I meant something like this... it shows a possible potential high price ....
My paint skills suck

You can slide the parabola straight up, straight to the left, or slide it at an angle, which it looks like you did.
That's fine.  I experimented with moving the curve around too, but there's so little data at the tops, three or four data points as opposed to dozens that line up on a curve at the bottom with a very high correlation coefficient (like 0.99), that I just couldn't justify it.  If it sounds like I'm saying that predicting the tops is futile, well I may just have to plead guilty on that one.  
Not completely futile.  If the model says bitcoin's 1000 or so days ahead and you're not getting scared, you're not paying very much attention.  That's actionable information*, and that's the significance of the second chart in the OP.

*not financial advice

True that you cannot predict. That’s why I said “potential”.
Shifting the curve up gives the possible working area of bitcoin.
Effectively saying it is unlikely to get above that price.

Once we have more cycles predictions might get better.

[1Referee]

If bitcoin reaches 100k at the end of 2021, a crash would result in something between 10k and 20k, and the consequent bear market would be in the five digits area, instead of four.

That's going to be brutal af for peak buyers, but very much a normal sort of correction for Bitcoin.

If we look at BRK.A stock price, it had one major (almost 50%) correction above the $100,000 level. This was from ~$144,000 to ~$75,000. If no-coiners dare to complain about Bitcoin falling hard from such levels, they should look at this stock and figure out that it also happens with assets that are considered defensive investments. 

I do however hope that the liquidity that this market gains will make the corrections not dip as deep as they used to do.

[Millionero]

If you want to engage in extravagant extrapolation, this should do you

[el kaka22]

100k would require way too much money to not change the charts direction, that is whats wrong with this, you can see it going like this and reach 100k but you are missing out how much a chart can change if enough pressure is put on the market as well.

Just to give an example when bitcoin was around 6.5 thousand dollars and if you looked charts and I mean ALL charts it looked like it was about to go off really high (which it did in similar fashion couple months later) but because Craig Wright sold thousands of coins all at once the price went down and stayed there for a long time. Which means yeah this chart looks like 100k is doable one day but it also means that charts can change a lot during that many years, we still have to follow this path without any interruption.