Bitcoin Creation Cost vs Price: Finding The Real Bottom

[cocoadreamboy]

Historical Price Vs Creation Cost

This chart demonstrates the reality that the creation cost represents the lowest feasible price that bitcoin can naturally go.

Notes
- The historical creation cost was found with various BTC ASIC’s. The best you could buy at the time (S9’s at various prices until December 2018 when S15’s came out)
- November 2018 there is a massive drop off in price and creation cost. In the 11 days before the price dropped off, the creation cost dropped 33%. This price drop followed the creation cost until the price was halved as the creation cost was halved.
- This historical chart looks very similar to the recent boom.
- Crypto is seasonal, if you want to make actual money in it you must know the creation cost and buy when the price is near it.
- Allowing intelligent investments to mature over time is VERY important in crypto (for example a buy in December 2018 would have been excellent, but it wouldn't have matured for 4-7 months depending on your exit point).
- There is no way to identify the bottom, “bargain” price for bitcoin or any crypto without knowing the creation cost.

You will not be able to know where this market will land if you do not know the current creation cost. Find it on my site here:

https://www.amsinger.org

My masterclass is 100% free and is exceptionally helpful.

Much Love and Hard Work,

Aaron

[odolvlobo]

This chart demonstrates the reality that the creation cost represents the lowest feasible price that bitcoin can naturally go.

Or it demonstrates the reality that the price of a bitcoin represents the highest feasible creation cost.

[cocoadreamboy]

This chart demonstrates the reality that the creation cost represents the lowest feasible price that bitcoin can naturally go.

Or it demonstrates the reality that the price of a bitcoin represents the highest feasible creation cost.

Not quite. The highest creation cost is infinite because you will never mine a bitcoin with a cpu. You can spend trillions in electricity mining with cpus and never get a single bitcoin.

Price above the creation cost is manipulation and speculation.

[killat]

If you are not an institution with millions of dollars to invest,  Bitcoin mining is not profitable on longterm for individuals, except if you have completely free electricity.

With every halving the mining difficulty increases and with time is more and more difficult to recover the price of mining devices.

[eternalgloom]

If you are not an institution with millions of dollars to invest,  Bitcoin mining is not profitable on longterm for individuals, except if you have completely free electricity.

With every halving the mining difficulty increases and with time is more and more difficult to recover the price of mining devices.

And on what numbers do you base this on?
I think it's entirely possible to have a small-scale mining operation, without completely free electricity and still make a profit.

People do manage to buy low quantities of miners on discount, you know. Sure, it might take a couple of months to get your original investment back, but I wouldn't say it's impossible.
Check the Mining Speculation boards and you'll see multiple scenarios where people manage to make money with just a couple of S9's for example.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=81.0

[gentlemand]

No miner will tell you what their costs are. No one needs to care what the cost of creating a coin is.

The market doesn't give a shit what miners pay. The market can push the cost lower than any miner pays. No miner can afford to hold back the tide. It's their problem and no one else's. If they go bust someone else will replace them.

OP's irrelevant fixation with mining continues.

[cocoadreamboy]

This is the reality of the past 3.5 years of bitcoin history. You can use it to benefit yourself. Some coins are close to their creation cost other coins are far away. If you want to truly profit in crypto you must jump from wave to wave, entering and exiting well on each coin. It is the only way.

https://www.amsinger.org/

Or just believe the herds and hodl a $19k bitcoin. The choice is yours to make.

[Red-Apple]

this is utterly wrong like always.

the market decides what the bitcoin price is not the miners. the market doesn't check how much it costs miners to mine bitcoin! if it decides price should be $10 and cost of mining is $50 then it will be $10 no matter what. and if it decided it should be $100 and cost was $50 again the price will be $100 no matter what.

if you check the bitcoin history you can clearly see this is true!

[cocoadreamboy]

this is utterly wrong like always.

the market decides what the bitcoin price is not the miners. the market doesn't check how much it costs miners to mine bitcoin! if it decides price should be $10 and cost of mining is $50 then it will be $10 no matter what. and if it decided it should be $100 and cost was $50 again the price will be $100 no matter what.

if you check the bitcoin history you can clearly see this is true!

I don’t really care if you agree or not. Facts don’t really care if people agree with them. I’m trying to help people understand this market. I don’t know what you are trying to do.

It is simply the reality. Doesn’t matter if you agree.

[BrewMaster]

now you are just creating data to draw a chart!
the "creation cost" is not just the cost of ASICs. it is that plus a dozen other things including the cost of electricity and labor. and all that is always changing with difficulty. and guess what, difficulty changes with price. as price goes up, the difficulty rises and because of that the cost of mining grows.
and in the end of all this, the price (which decides the cost of mining) is determined on the exchanges by the traders who are not even mining bitcoin.

[coinycoiny]

My car cost $30k 10 years ago.

It probably cost $20k to make, the rest went on taxes, commission etc.

Shall I go to my local dealer and explain it must still be worth $20k?

[cocoadreamboy]

My car cost $30k 10 years ago.

It probably cost $20k to make, the rest went on taxes, commission etc.

Shall I go to my local dealer and explain it must still be worth $20k?

No, but your dealer knows to not sell cars for less than 20k. And if you can find a car for close to 20k you should probably buy. You are proving my point.

[cocoadreamboy]

now you are just creating data to draw a chart!
the "creation cost" is not just the cost of ASICs. it is that plus a dozen other things including the cost of electricity and labor. and all that is always changing with difficulty. and guess what, difficulty changes with price. as price goes up, the difficulty rises and because of that the cost of mining grows.
and in the end of all this, the price (which decides the cost of mining) is determined on the exchanges by the traders who are not even mining bitcoin.

All hail lord crypto! He knoweth all. And is NOT full of crap lol

[Wilhelm]

Mining is not worth the hassle. It is cheaper to buy the coins directly. It used to be a good reason to buy a good GPU.

[exstasie]

Mining is not worth the hassle. It is cheaper to buy the coins directly. It used to be a good reason to buy a good GPU.

It's not worth the hassle for little guys like us. But if you've got a few million bucks to drop and you can source ASICs faster than retail, it's a better investment than buying BTC, especially given sparse OTC liquidity. Find a good land deal near a power generator that needs load balancing contracts and you'll be getting super cheap electricity. A good connection for solar panels can go pretty far too.

Like everything else in this world, you need capital and connections. Otherwise yeah, I feel bad for any casual investor who bothers mining.

[thecodebear]

It could also be because once price goes down to around cost miners perhaps stop selling bitcoin because why sell then when you can wait and make a profit, meaning not much supply hitting the market, which means it helps keep price stable even as demand drops.

[cocoadreamboy]

It could also be because once price goes down to around cost miners perhaps stop selling bitcoin because why sell then when you can wait and make a profit, meaning not much supply hitting the market, which means it helps keep price stable even as demand drops.

This is the essence of how it works. When the price is low they are less incentivized to sell and even at times they buy. When the price is high they have no reason to hold, and the downward pressure hits 1800 btc/day.


The key is knowing the creation cost.

https://www.amsinger.org/

[Duzter]

Mining is not worth the hassle. It is cheaper to buy the coins directly. It used to be a good reason to buy a good GPU.

Agreed, it good to buy than mining. The buying needs to be done at the right time, because the price of bitcoin could change in large scale in a very short time period. This could create a big difference between the buying and the creation cost. As a user mentioned above if someone leaves mining the place gets replaced by another miner. No matter what they do, it is their problem to benefit out of mining, because no user gives clear data on the mining cost for a coin. It varies with every miner.

[Slow death]

The key is knowing the creation cost.

https://www.amsinger.org/

You are again posting to promote your site, this is not wrong, but the price you charge for people to have access to the knowledge you have is very high:



you charge $119.99 every month... that's a high value to just know about bitcoin production cost. Are people used to analyzing the charts and following the news so they can trade, why the hell would they pay $119.99 every month to know about the cost of creating each bitcoin? I think no one will pay for your services

[Wilhelm]

this is utterly wrong like always.

the market decides what the bitcoin price is not the miners. the market doesn't check how much it costs miners to mine bitcoin! if it decides price should be $10 and cost of mining is $50 then it will be $10 no matter what. and if it decided it should be $100 and cost was $50 again the price will be $100 no matter what.

if you check the bitcoin history you can clearly see this is true!

I don’t really care if you agree or not. Facts don’t really care if people agree with them. I’m trying to help people understand this market. I don’t know what you are trying to do.

It is simply the reality. Doesn’t matter if you agree.

Red-Apple states that your data does not add up and your facts are false. I agree with him. Miners have mined at a loss many times previously. Also traders don’t give a rats ass what a miner needs to pay. Simple supply demand economics apply to bitcoin.

You answer that facts do not care if people agree with them and state that your facts are therefore true.
You state that “it is simply reality”... these are things what unknowing people say when they can’t provide proof.

You are NOT helping people understand the market. You are NOT listening to any input whatsoever. You are only selling your bullshit TA to screw people out of their money.

Have a nice day