Mined Block Calculation | Mining Difficulty

[Sonu_titu]

As per my understanding the block mining difficulty is adjusted based on the number of blocks mined in the last 14 days(i.e., last 2016 blocks). If every 10 mins a block is easily mined then the difficulty increases and if it is taking more than 10 min to mine a block then the difficulty is reduced.

On this understanding I did the below calculation:

Duration	Number of Blocks
1hr	6
24 hrs	144
365 days	52560
10 years**	525888

**In the duration of Jan 3rd 2009 and Jan 3rd 2019 there were 2 leap year so it will be 525600+144+144 =525888.
 
After Jan 3rd 2019 it is 238 days now. Thus, we need to add 34272 more blocks. Totally the blocks must count to 525888+34272 that will be 560160 but, the number of blocks on explorer is 592266. The difference is 32106 blocks which is 223 days approx.

Can someone please explain that causing this problem? Is it my understanding and calculation or there is some reason behind this. Thanks in Advance.

[1715161846]

1715161846

[Rath_]

As per my understanding the block mining difficulty is adjusted based on the number of blocks mined in the last 14 days(i.e., last 2016 blocks). If every 10 mins a block is easily mined then the difficulty increases and if it is taking more than 10 min to mine a block then the difficulty is reduced.

10 minutes on average between blocks is the target. It's not that uncommon to see blocks solved one after another. The time to mine 2016 blocks in 2 weeks is what matters in the difficulty formula.

1hr = 6 blocks.
24hrs(1day) = 144 blocks.
365 days(1 year)

Replace = with ~. Sometimes, no new blocks are found for 30-40 minutes.

[Sonu_titu]

Sometimes, no new blocks are found for 30-40 minutes.

If this is the case then why are extra blocks mined? That to equal to 223 days.

[Rath_]

If this is the case then why are extra blocks mined? That to equal to 223 days. Please check my complete question.

I haven't seen it before since you edited your post. It can also work the other way. In one hour, more than 6 blocks can be found. Since Bitcoin difficulty has been growing for most of the time, doesn't that mean that more than 2016 blocks were mined (almost) every 2 weeks? After 10 years, it could add up to such a huge number.

[Sonu_titu]

I haven't seen it before since you edited your post. It can also work the other way. In one hour, more than 6 blocks can be found. Since Bitcoin difficulty has been growing for most of the time, doesn't that mean that more than 2016 blocks were mined (almost) every 2 weeks? After 10 years, it could add up to such a huge number.

Was facing some difficulty in representing the table and by mistake I had clicked on Post instead of preview so had to edit the post. It was my mistake. Sorry for that. But can you please elaborate the other way calculation that you are suggesting.

[Rath_]

But can you please elaborate the other way calculation that you are suggesting.

Take a look at the Bitcoin difficulty chart. As you can see, the difficulty increased more times than it decreased (otherwise we would have reached the minimum difficulty at some point). What happened before the difficulty increased each time? More than 2016 blocks were mined in a two weeks time. Your calculations are off because you assume that every two weeks, 2016 blocks are mined.

[Sonu_titu]

Somewhat I could understand as the link you shared has below line:

Adjust time:   After 1499 Blocks, About 10.3 days

As per my calculation 10.3 days will come somewhere around 1484 and the current difficulty is 1499 which results in more blocks to enter the blockchain and this thing might have increased the blocks in the duration of 10 years and even the graph shows the fluctuation in the block entry difficulty. Thanks.

[jackg]

In addition to what bitcryptex said, if you take the numbers you quoted above and do this:

Average time a block is found = 10*theoretical number of block that should be found/number of blocks actually found
 
You get 9.458 minutes (to 4 significant figures). This means that while the number is still not exactly 10 minutes, it is fairly close to since the hashrate keeps rising and the difficulty doesn't change every block (people might time turning on mining equipment just after the reward has changed too to be able to mine more and calculate profits more easily).

[2double0]

10 minutes is not the exact time it takes to find a block every time. While you are calculating that you are presently watching this number to be higher, let me tell you that it takes an average of 10 minutes but sometimes, it takes more than 20-50 minutes and even an hour or more to find just one block taking into account many different factors that affect the difficulty and block finding times. But these are adjusted accordingly with time and the final number reaches near or more than 144 blocks a day so seeing the number quite higher than what you have calculated is not so surprising.

[Lauda]

Not sure why nobody left this here: Poisson distribution.