Close to BIG Breakout. Will it be $7K or $13K?

[Monfex]

Hi, traders!

Let’s analyse in detail the technicals for BTCUSD . The price chart of Bitcoin suggests that there could be some more downside ahead.
The downward sloping linear channel, being formed on the daily timeframe , confirms that market sentiment becomes increasingly bearish . In addition, the triangle chart pattern, formed on the daily chart , implies that there is high uncertainty among traders as to the trend direction for Bitcoin over the short-term.

At the end of June, Bitcoin might have been way overbought, and since then has been making a series of lower highs, telling us that the buyers were getting a little bit less enthusiastic.

Now, the price is very close to a significant support level at $9,000, and the downside risk of breaking below $9,000 remains high. If Bitcoin to go below $9,000 per Bitcoin , it will be confirmed to go back down toward $7,000 or even lower.

Interestingly, over the long term, I strongly believe that Bitcoin is a good ‘buy’ opportunity and remain bullish on Bitcoin . In addition, if we apply the Bollinger Bands Indicator we can see that it is moving sideways, and the price is floating near the lower bound. This indicates the probability of a short-term price appreciation for Bitcoin may be high, versus the continuation of a decline.

Conclusion

The price is moving sideways and we should wait for either a breakout above the $10,500 or below the $9,000, to be able to make a substantiated trading decision.

Active Trade Signal

- Buy at $9,500
- Stop-loss at $9,000
- Take-profit at $11,000
- Risk/reward ratio: 1:3 (very attractive)

Additional Trade Signal

- Place a sell-stop order to sell Bitcoin at $8,850 (in case, the price breaks through and below the $9,000 level, the order will be executed).
- Take-profit at $7,500 (or higher, depending on your risk aversion)
- Stop-Loss at $9,500

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[audaciousbeing]

Should this not be in the speculation section of the forum as its more about prediction of what the value of bitcoin would be other than the present.

I really appreciate the thought process before the suggestions are being made because its backed by some serious research that can even be verified which is something that is not common on the forum except individuals who create threads based on their feelings on what they exact the price to be. For me, I think there is really a strong resistance at the moment waiting for a push in the up direction.

[BITDV]

Bit difficult to predict this trade, btc have strong support at 9K USD, and also have Head and sholders pattern. Until now there are three retest and two retest became fail. In this situation i will look at news, and issue for two weeks ahead. If there's no significant news, i will try to look at AO indicator to make final decide

[mazdafunsun]

It seems that it broke up rather than down. This could be a sign of market recovering from sharp drop , this big drop could have been just a another squeeze, this time long squeeze and now the market is going where it wanted in the first place. I dont think that 13k is a good upper limit, if btc goes to that level we very well be looking at much higher levels.

[AjithBtc]

This time the price has gained good stability without leaving the price go low to $9500 support. Upon the same there is more chances for continued rise in the price of bitcoin rather than falling back. This time we can expect the price to stagger within the $13000 range for a long term as the breakout of $13k is the next big step forward to reach a new ath.

[auntyjmary]

The chart looks interesting, it is either a hit or a miss at this point. Who knows maybe we can cross 13K  but the high support for bitcoin at 9K USD would be the main  challenge at this point. The times ahead looks good for margin traders.

[buwaytress]

I think a few more false breakouts first, in which case sell order just below 9900 to take profit at 5%. We're going to see a lot more rides like this, and why not. Rationally seems to say we're running out of cycles in this sideways move, but even if the breakout is upwards towards 13k, we've got to see a fall to close to 9k one more time before that happens.

But hey, this is my non-rational prediction;) Good luck!

[1Referee]

It surprised me a bit with how fast we have gone up. If we look at the decending triangle on the daily, you'll see that we're pretty close to the upper side of the descending resistance around $11,000. If that's not enough, we also have an ascending trendline (one that we currently trade below) that now will be forming resistance. In other words, double resistance. Looks like a solid short to me.

I will definitely place a 2x leverage short around the $11,000 level and from there look at how the market behaves. If we respect the current market structure I'll keep the short, but if we break out of the triange and close two consecutive daily candles above it, then I'll be looking for a long. Interesting times.

[BitHodler]

I don't see much difference in the trend-- people are overly optimistic about the price going back up above $10k, which is very much in line with the overall bearish formation that's getting nicely shaped with more confirming touches.

I consider a sub $9000 visit more likely this month than anything else. Major indicators of fresh capital flowing into crypto are the stablecoins, and none of them saw an increase of significance.

It's largely the same capital that's being traded back and forth, so from there you can't really expect the price to surge beyond its current resistance levels. No new capital entering means no new demand.

[BrewMaster]

i am surprised with the things that some people see on the charts! it is as if they first choose a price they want (whether higher or lower) then forcefully draw lines that don't make any sense on the charts to get to those prices and then make their conclusion based on that!

for example here, the lines OP draws don't make any sense at all. specially the red ones. instead of choosing the bottom line correctly (a more horizontal one) he is drawing a completely random line just because he wants to create that downward channel with the upper line which is also chosen wrong. instead of choosing the tops he is forcing a slope that he likes.
if the lines were drawn more correctly they would actually point to $9000 not $7000! and mostly point to a converging line too as the lows are rising.

[omonuyak]

Op, were do you get all this your analysis from because you opened this thread yesterday when bitcoin has already moved over $10,600 and you were analyzing $9000. Maybe you make this analysis about three days ago and you just post it yesterday without checking what has happened again. The breakout at $9,750 at on Monday was in favor of bull and not bear.

[exstasie]

Op, were do you get all this your analysis from because you opened this thread yesterday when bitcoin has already moved over $10,600 and you were analyzing $9000. Maybe you make this analysis about three days ago and you just post it yesterday without checking what has happened again. The breakout at $9,750 at on Monday was in favor of bull and not bear.

If you look at the chart, there's an additional trade signal: a buy-stop order above $10,500. The take-profit for that position is at $13,500 so the OP is obviously expecting more upside from here.

I disagree myself, at least until I see a couple technical changes on the chart. We're right at resistance and riding high on the 4H to 12H indicators. Bears are likely to step in soon. Then we'll see where support is.

[STT]

It seems that it broke up rather than down.

No I'm still watching because it feels like a repeat to me, still.   Amazing we bounce around more in this box recently then a game on a Squash court.



I drew this fresh just quick to see how it might seem from a quick look but I think its still justified on old charts even.   If we're closing above the 50 day average on daily bars then very possibly I'm wrong but seems we are not yet proven to 'break out' in a normal way.
   Actually reminds me of this time last year when we had some similar action continually bouncing except that was around the 6500 area upwards.   People said it couldnt be lower then that because of mining costs or something, this repeated many times with no resolution and it also seems like that now.


A clip of the initial peak and fall, it was the sharpest and quickest.   What I'm referring to when I say its a repeat, the recent low is around the bottom of the pin here (far right) and the top prices today are the first horizontal band or about 23% of price range - weak!
   So all this time later and we are struggling to achieve what occured in 1 day on July 2nd.

[JL0]

VanEck, SolidX Bitcoin ETF launching at Sept. 5 and Bakkt is coming to end of this month. I think we going UP  it's my opinion

[NeuroticFish]

VanEck, SolidX Bitcoin ETF launching at Sept. 5 and Bakkt is coming to end of this month. I think we going UP  it's my opinion

Only the news may not affect the price much, maybe short-lived pumps.
But it's september. People are back to work. Mining difficulty rises. Halving is getting closer.

Let's see if the price will meet the expectations or some whales will decide it's best to dump.

[Red-Apple]

   Actually reminds me of this time last year when we had some similar action continually bouncing except that was around the 6500 area upwards.   People said it couldnt be lower then that because of mining costs or something, this repeated many times with no resolution and it also seems like that now.

except that by that time the reversal had not happened yet. the only thing that had happened was price reaching the bottom. then the manipulation came and the panic sells continued the down trend.
now the reversal has already happened months ago and we have been in an uptrend instead. this here is more like 2017 when price was at price had just fallen from $7000 to $6000 and people were drawing lines pointing to back to $1200 and then $10k was broken instead.

[ophyrim]

According to the last movement, BTC is in a descending triangle which is a bearish formation. And the probability of "down" is higher that the "up". the top of this formation is 11k USD and after the down break out the target is 5k.

[michellee]

I want to see the price break out and start a rally to the higher price

But I don't have any clue about what will happen later because I see that it seems, bitcoin price is stable at a price now, and it seems, it's more difficult to predict. The price itself is not going to down or up too higher and it always back to the price before if there is a movement at the market. It makes me a little bit confusing to determine what will I do, and that makes me wait for a while to see how it goes.

[el kaka22]

This is one of the hardest times to be a leverage trader right now. I mean it could go any direction and we have no idea what it will do.

I do not deal with charts because I have seen them fail too many times but public sentiment is never wrong, if people are thinking that bitcoin will go up and hyped about it then the price will go up, however if they think bitcoin will be going down and afraid it will go down.

It is mostly because there is no regulation in bitcoin so when people are afraid they sell which directly causes it to go down or when people are hyped they buy and it directly goes up. Right now people look tired of the same price once again, it has been around the same price for a long time and people are about to say "it is enough of the same price, I am going out until something fun starts to happen".

[exstasie]

This is one of the hardest times to be a leverage trader right now. I mean it could go any direction and we have no idea what it will do.

Hence the old expression "sometimes no trade is the best trade." This past couple months, traders have been getting chopped to pieces by this ranging, whipsawing market. They keep trying to position themselves for the next big move, but every swing (in both directions) keeps failing. Only those who knew to trade it like a range (or to stop trading it entirely) have done well. Everyone else is bleeding money.

There's no shame in waiting for a confirmed breakout and buying the dip!