Bitcoin Halving Countdown and Other Data

[ichai]

That is also the reason why Bitcoin has grown so strongly over the years. because many investors saw the potential of Bitcoin and started buying from the very beginning.
Halving will take place every 4 years and we can stop the inflation rate by buying Bitcoin and holding it for 12 years. Certainly our portfolio will increase greatly because of the growing demand for Bitcoin.

[odolvlobo]

Miners need to sell their btc to pay for their costs. They are a big supplier.

You are speculating. You don't really know if they are a big supplier or not. Also, if miners "are a big supplier", then you would expect the price to be falling all the time as they continue to sell new bitcoins every day.

All past halvings affected the price a lot (as the graphic posts by tbct_mt2).

There is no correlation. There was a steep rise in price a few months after the first halving, but not after the second halving (unless you include the rise that followed more than a year later. Furthermore, there have been several steep increases that do not coincide with any halving.

About LTC, you cannot compare any altcoin with bitcoin. Because altcoins are simple not bitcoin. They are used to by smart people to accumulate btc, and for that only.

Litecoin works just like Bitcoin. There would be no reason for an opposite behavior. Litecoiners say that the price falls because miners must sell extra litecoins to cover loses after the halving.

[bitmover]

Miners need to sell their btc to pay for their costs. They are a big supplier.

You are speculating. You don't really know if they are a big supplier or not. Also, if miners "are a big supplier", then you would expect the price to be falling all the time as they continue to sell new bitcoins every day.

Because that's exactly how it works. Supply and demand. Google for it and you will understand. The mmore supply, the lower the price. That's science, not speculation.



Also do you expect all miners to be holders, or just suppliers of BTC to exchanges? They mine and sell most of them, because they need to pay energy costs.

All past halvings affected the price a lot (as the graphic posts by tbct_mt2).

There is no correlation. There was a steep rise in price a few months after the first halving, but not after the second halving (unless you include the rise that followed more than a year later. Furthermore, there have been several steep increases that do not coincide with any halving.

Of course we must consider all past data to make the analysis. Reduction in supply will affect the price forever. Do you think that if a halving never occurred, and we had 50 new BTC every 10minuyes, the price would be the same? Look at the graphic up there again.

Litecoin works just like Bitcoin. There would be no reason for an opposite behavior. Litecoiners say that the price falls because miners must sell extra litecoins to cover loses after the halving.

you are the one speculating now

[BitHodler]

Hashrate doesn't matter.

If they produce new asic with better hashrate or if miners leave, the difficult will be adjusted accordingly to keep 10minutes average block mining. It will be 256 (now 255) days, or very close to that.

Of course hashrate matters. It's everything. If suddenly a large percentage of the hashrate is gone, it means that it will take the miners that are still actively mining much longer to find blocks.

If it takes longer for miners to find blocks, it takes longer for the difficulty to be adjusted so that the block times become normal again. It then also leads to much lower transaction throughout for obvious reasons.

In the same way, more hashrate being added means faster block times and therefore faster difficulty adjustments. I find it a bit disturbing to see how easily you wipe the hashrate aspect off the table.

[stompix]

Litecoin works just like Bitcoin. There would be no reason for an opposite behavior. Litecoiners say that the price falls because miners must sell extra litecoins to cover loses after the halving.

And bitcoiners will say the same if the price doesn't spike after the halving.
Everyone is trying to find a culprit to accuse or their assumptions going wrong.

What they forget to say is that if before the halving miners would have 14 400 coins worth 1.4 mils to sell, now they have 4200 worth exactly $471,998 as the time I post this. Adding up the enormous drop in hashrate which means drop in electricity ills, fewer coins to sell to cover expenses becomes pretty clear that is not the miner's fault.

And about the opposite behaviour...litecoin is an alt, bitcoin isn't. Enough for me 

Of course hashrate matters. It's everything. If suddenly a large percentage of the hashrate is gone, it means that it will take the miners that are still actively mining much longer to find blocks.

If it takes longer for miners to find blocks, it takes longer for the difficulty to be adjusted so that the block times become normal again. It then also leads to much lower transaction throughout for obvious reasons.

Yeah, this is one thing I'm afraid in a crash.
If it happens at the right moment, just after tons of equipment has been added to the network and the crash if making mining unprofitable for a lot of miners we might experience a temporary drop in network capacity. If it happens at a moment when the block is almost full and the difficulty adjustment is a week away we might experience another huge tx fee increase.

Fortunately currently the profit margin for miners is looking good vs electricity costs so no real drop in hashrate will happen unless we go below 6000.

[Kakmakr]

So, not all the coins that are mined daily, goes into circulation. A lot of the miners are hoarding some of those coins and the rest is converted to Fiat to pay for their expenses. A lot of them will also hoard the coins, until there are a significant spike in the price. 

The previous Halving has not shown any significant increase in the price, because it is priced in before it actually happens. There are a lot of hype prior to the actual date and then you would see a small bump in the price.

Each Halving is unique and a lot of other factors influence the price movement. If something bad happens during or prior to that date, then the price will go down and visa versa. 

[tbct_mt2]

By the way, anyone knows site(s) on which I can get chart of bitcoin supply over time, like UTXO chart, that I can move mouse to any timepoint to see how many bitcoin are available in supply at that timepoint? Because I would like to link between UTXO and total bitcoin supply at same timepoints.
Here is UTXO chart:

[The Sceptical Chymist]

It is hard to price in a halving before it occurs, because it affects the supply of bitcoin on exchanges.

I'm not so sure about that.  I'm not a firm believer in strongly efficient markets, but I've always had the feeling that halfenings can always be priced in well before they happen.  I do recall the last one and how the price rose well before the difficulty doubled, and it could very well be that this jump from $3500 to over $10k reflects the change.  Can't say I'm entirely sure, but with predictable events like that a price change tends to happen before the event itself.

The only thing that pumps the bitcoin price up is the demand for bitcoins.

Pretty much, since the supply is growing at a predictable rate, though I do think the halfing would have some influence on the price.  I can't say for sure the magnitude, but it is a pretty significant event in the bitcoin mining world.  Having said that, it is quite a long ways away.  I'm keeping my fingers crossed that by the time it happens we'll see bitcoin above its ATH of $20k+.

[SquallLeonhart]

Price doesn't fall because miners sell to cover the expenses, it drops because they are selling all they have but they have less to sell now. I mean not "now" but after the halving. Just to talk about the bitcoin part, people had 1800 bitcoins mined every day and they didn't had to sell all of it because they made profit with current difficulty and amount of bitcoins they mined (also transaction fee's they are getting).

Now, if that drops to 900 and difficulty not only stays same but also increases then we will see them selling all of it to just make it even and maybe even lose money for a while until difficulty falls down a bit. That is why price will look like its going down because they are selling but it will be because all of a sudden all miners will be trying to find some profit, it will go back to what it was when difficulty drops and price will be unaffected.

[jossiel]

It's getting exciting to those that have endured all of the painful days of the bearish market and can still hold bitcoin on their stash. Numbers don't lie and to those who have witnessed all the past 3 halving can figure it out that the same effect would come after the next halving next year or someone who are relying to the charts.

History can repeates itself, and we all can patiently wait for it with next halving next year to enjoy coming bull run of Bitcoin back to its all time high first, then taking off to the Moon in late of 2020 or early four months of 2021.

Yes, that's more likely to happen. The chart is encouraging that's why I'm pushing myself to keep as much as I can for a year or maybe two or more as long as I can. I'd love to ride with everyone who manage to keep more until the price is extremely high.

[hatshepsut93]

Halvenings have always been priced in long before they have happened, it's literally an information that is known to everyone and always, so the next halvening is probably the reason why the market has started recovering this year. The halvening event itself only causes a tiny uncertainty, due to risks of bugs that can wreck the network - but since the previous halvenings were smooth, there's even less reason to worry now.

[RealMalatesta]

The problem is they even drop after the halving itself, like you actually see the price go up before the halving starts and when the halving happens people start to sell, so instead of us having an increasing price because there are less mined coins everyday which should be what the normal reaction should be, we will be having a lot of sales because people see halving as a profitable moment and buy beforehand and when it reaches the peak they sell because after the halving there is no date to wait anymore.

It is idiotic but it happens all the time, it happens with everything as well, not just halving, like happens on difficulty increases too. Lets hope miners do not overreact to this and keep their calm, they have enough power to manipulate anyway they want and that is what I am afraid about.

[gunungkembar]

prepare yourself to be able to get a lot of profits when the price of bitcoin halving usually the price of bitcoin will go up by a very large amount, lest you miss this golden opportunity.

[guoyu78]

prepare yourself to be able to get a lot of profits when the price of bitcoin halving usually the price of bitcoin will go up by a very large amount, lest you miss this golden opportunity.

Halving actually helps miners more than you think it does. Not the small timers because they won't be getting anything since the difficulty will be increasing to mine one bitcoin whereas the number of bitcoins mined will be going down.

However, the big miners will be taking advantage of this, the transaction fee's are still there and the difficulty will go up so the small miners will have to leave and the big miners will have a bigger share of the mined coins, they may not make as much as they used to but they won't need as many machines as they used to as well to mine bitcoin which means less purchases for mining equipment and less electricity costs as well. Think about it this way, you will be basically spending less but earning less as well, it is less risky that way but rewards are lower too, I think miners will be hurt but not as much as we think.

[Pab]

Halving increasing price.It was like that and it will be like that
It is hard to estimates exact halving data but it will be around may and june
So not so much  waiting left .Halving bull run will begin at november
Now we are still in accumulation time

[Febo]

1800 BTC per day is a lot. In 256 days we will have only 900 new btc per day

900 is not far from Gold mining emission. So Bitcoin finally got to be rare. Of course is still hard to compare both since one was mined in 10 other in 10000 years.

[bitgolden]

Additionally, there will be only 21 million bitcoins and that is the limit, we will never have 21 million and one. Gold is not like that, I know there is a limited supply of gold on earth right now but we are never really sure how much, I mean we know not too much left but right now one day there could be a place where a ton of gold comes out and then people will mine and end it and then there will be a lot more in some other mine and so forth. That is why there is really no way to be sure about how much gold is left, you can have an "estimate" but not exact number.

Bitcoin going to 900 per day is a lot better than gold right now, its getting more and more limited and getting closer and closer to ending the whole thing eventually. Miners will still make money from transaction fees but at least there won't be any new coins coming out.

[fiulpro]

I think if we consider demand and supply rule then we would be able to know that the price will decrease slightly when new coins actually being added ..but I don't see why it would only go down during the halving .

Also after the bitcoins reaches the highest numbers then it would increase drastically Making the price and numeration difficult so I think we would start using Satoshi's gradually.
Or.maybe mini Satoshis

[Theb]

If prices continues to jump wildly in the market or in short still be volatile now then the supply changes in the next halving would be irrelevant now. Bitcoin might not be as scarce as we think since we all know Bitcoin can be bought not it's entirety of 1 BTC people can have it on small denominations in satoshis which are also valuable. But back to my main point is with big changes like this and still we always re-visit prices back when we are mining 3600 BTCs per day we all know that supply isn't really the one affecting the price movements but the market timing itself. So if the next halving will make Bitcoin scarcer then it's a plus on our side but we don't really need to expect that this will be the automatic outcome.

[hatshepsut93]

If prices continues to jump wildly in the market or in short still be volatile now then the supply changes in the next halving would be irrelevant now. Bitcoin might not be as scarce as we think since we all know Bitcoin can be bought not it's entirety of 1 BTC people can have it on small denominations in satoshis which are also valuable. But back to my main point is with big changes like this and still we always re-visit prices back when we are mining 3600 BTCs per day we all know that supply isn't really the one affecting the price movements but the market timing itself. So if the next halving will make Bitcoin scarcer then it's a plus on our side but we don't really need to expect that this will be the automatic outcome.

There won't be any instant price jump after halving, like some people imagine, because halving is a well-known and predictable event, it has been priced in already. Markets are not some mindless mechanisms that instantly react to change, it's just manifestation of thousands of real human choices, and humans plan ahead. The last time I've witnessed a halvening, the market started growing months before it happened, and then continued to do so for many more months. I'm not going to say that it will be exactly the same, but we need to think about effects of halvening over long periods of time rather than just one time.