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Author Topic: Bollinger: "BTCUSD is in a BB Squeeze, Awaiting confirmation of a move higher."  (Read 286 times)
exstasie
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September 19, 2019, 07:40:06 PM
 #21

I wonder if that tag of the daily lower band is all we get! Bulls look to be closing the day pretty strong, nice reaction.

Bollinger calling it a head fake!

Looking at the weekly candles, we've only tested it twice. One more would be typical of a triangle. I agree with you that repeatedly hammering support often suggests an eventual breakdown, but it's not a hard rule either. The $200 area in 2015 is one example where that thinking failed.
That situation was a bit different though. The price was bouncing between $200-$300 for almost a whole year, with more $300 touches than $200 based on Bitstamp's chart.

I don't want to get into a thing over it, but looking at the weekly chart there were 4 distinct runs at the low $200s or below. Per conventional wisdom, we should have crashed on the 3rd or 4th attempt......but we didn't.

Currently we're not hammering the same horizontal resistance level, but lower ones as the resistance descends further and further.

We aren't making lower lows at all. Every low on the weekly chart since the initial July crash is a higher low. There may be a descending trend line but there's also an ascending one that's being respected.

Another difference is that we back in 2015 were in the process of bottoming out with how exhausted the sellers were, while currently we might be in the process of topping out with how bearish the triangular formation is.

Triangles tend to be continuation patterns, not tops. There is a huge and budding uptrend on the monthly chart. I don't see any reason to bet against it.

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September 20, 2019, 10:42:09 AM
 #22

I meant to mention this site before which goes over various patterns and their percentage accuracy in confirming the pattern as significant.   I think BTC is especially hard to pin down as volume is distributed not centralised to mostly one exchange as is more common in FIAT bound quotes.

http://thepatternsite.com/TimePerformance.html
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So it would seem it can break either way, only a slight bias to upwards.    We see the volume declining so that fits but the lows are slightly higher, yesterdays low was higher by a few hundred.

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September 20, 2019, 03:38:14 PM
 #23

http://thepatternsite.com/TimePerformance.html

So it would seem it can break either way, only a slight bias to upwards.    We see the volume declining so that fits but the lows are slightly higher, yesterdays low was higher by a few hundred.

That's for a descending triangle, also known as a "bearish triangle." So even bearish triangles break upwards a majority of the time.

Technically, the pattern on the chart is a symmetrical triangle. Bulkowski's backtesting says they break upward 60% of the time and he isn't even controlling for trend direction. If he did, I'm confident the numbers would be even better:

Quote
In Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (1948), Edwards and Magee suggest that roughly 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. The reversal patterns can be especially difficult to analyze and often have false breakouts.
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle_continuation

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September 21, 2019, 09:48:12 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3)
 #24

The daily Bollinger bands are already squeezing, but it seems like we're gearing up for an even bigger squeeze on the weekly chart. Here you can see the weekly BBs plotted against BB width to highlight the coiling that's occurring, just like in March this year:



In March, you can also see some tagging of the BB basis (the 20-week MA), very similar to the current price action. I expect October to play out similarly to April too.

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September 25, 2019, 08:34:49 AM
 #25

February this year is where I recognized a positive trend forming but it was still below the radar, too small and easily dismissed or ignored.   Thats the one I regret because the prices were nicer, March and April is the safer confirmation of that early recovery in BTC but prices already higher by then, we know obviously it was worth taking that buy.   So just like now theres the sharp end of the stick where it could be painful to buy but also greater gains.

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I favor the long term MAs over the short term any day.

Long term is the better perspective always to consider because it contains all the data, short term anything can happen.   I will argue there is alot of space or free air in the long term view for where we can be day to day and we can have a candle or pin far outside where people thought the boundary would be, especially when we are switching to weekly or monthly candles or moving averages, etc    
   Someone else said it on a video I watched but I totally agree, BTC always over runs both its positive and when its negative.    A move away from a tight formation is going be like an elastic band, I hope to catch some of the movement shorter term.
 
 So the BB shows 7350 as a possible price target on a weekly view.   Mostly a question as I not used BB for many years so I could easily consider it in the wrong way.

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