I wonder if that tag of the daily lower band is all we get! Bulls look to be closing the day pretty strong, nice reaction.
Bollinger calling it a head fake!Looking at the weekly candles, we've only tested it twice. One more would be typical of a triangle. I agree with you that repeatedly hammering support often suggests an eventual breakdown, but it's not a hard rule either. The $200 area in 2015 is one example where that thinking failed.
That situation was a bit different though. The price was bouncing between $200-$300 for almost a whole year, with more $300 touches than $200 based on Bitstamp's chart.
I don't want to get into a thing over it, but looking at the weekly chart there were 4 distinct runs at the low $200s or below. Per conventional wisdom, we
should have crashed on the 3rd or 4th attempt......but we didn't.
Currently we're not hammering the same horizontal resistance level, but lower ones as the resistance descends further and further.
We aren't making lower lows at all. Every low on the weekly chart since the initial July crash is a
higher low. There may be a descending trend line but there's also an ascending one that's being respected.
Another difference is that we back in 2015 were in the process of bottoming out with how exhausted the sellers were, while currently we might be in the process of topping out with how bearish the triangular formation is.
Triangles tend to be continuation patterns, not tops. There is a huge and budding uptrend on the monthly chart. I don't see any reason to bet against it.