you are correct that the reduced inflation will somewhat balance the reward halving shock.
but considering that today transaction fee's are a very negligible profit for miners it seems to me that the block reward halving (and thus almost halving of the miner's income unless the current situation changes)
will be a major shock to the network despite the relatively small reduction in inflation.
It is unlikely to be a shock, because it is a known event, that miners planning to operate a certain mining venture past that date, can take into account today; the bigger risk for miners today, is not the predictable halving, BUT the difficult or impossible to predict rate of increase of the network hashrate and therefore hash difficulty --- and the future exchange rate of Bitcoins.
Mining can be rendered unprofitable, for many potential miners - due to their equipment+electricity cost --- long before the halving.
If some miners shut down their rig: the hash rate goes down, and mining becomes more profitable for other miners who continue their mining operation.
Also, just because a certain mining operation has been rendered unprofitable -- does not mean that it stops mining: as long as the incremental operational expense of operating the mining rig for 1 day does not exceed the incremental value of the daily reward, then stopping the mining rig creates an even bigger loss.
It is rational for mining to continue for those that already purchased equipment, as long as the average daily Watts of electricity, air conditioning, space, and maintenance cost consumed per hash per second continue to be less than the dollar value of the fraction of a daily Bitcoin that can be mined per hash per second.
Otherwise.... if the daily dollar/fiat cost of operating the miner is greater than reward + ~1% exchange fee, then it makes sense to shutdown the mining rig, and ---- if the idea was to get bitcoins, trade fiat for Bitcoin on a reputable exchange instead.
On the other hand, future increase in exchange rate might eventually change formerly unprofitable mining to profitable, if the Bitcoin reward was retained.
ALSO, Just because it might be rational to shutdown the rig, does not mean miners will do so. It is quite possible many miners continue to operate, even after the reward is less than the electricity cost.
In other words: miners speculating on future exchange rates, and using mining over buying Bitcoins on an exchange, as a preferred way of obtaining Bitcoins, since mined coins may be kept more securely and anonymously, than bitcoins purchased from an exchange, that might have privacy protection issues or questionable security.....
