Bitcoin network's hash rate is back up

[metallica101]

So, with the hash rate back to normal levels, do you expect the prices will start recovering?

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=60days

[1715030437]

1715030437

[Carlton Banks]

So, with the hash rate back to normal levels, do you expect the prices will start recovering?

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=60days

there is no evidence it ever dropped


long gaps between blocks (which is the only thing that definitely happened) are random. finding new blocks is probabilistic, not mechanistic. That means there is natural variability in how fast new blocks are solved, and natural variability can easily account for the tiny drop that happened for only a few hours on September 23rd.


If this isn't a whole load of bullshit psychological price manipulation, how come the price didn't react until Sep 24th, over 24 hours later? because it is, if you panic sold, you've been mugged

[o_e_l_e_o]

As Carlton says, there was a 1 hour 16 minute gap between blocks 596166 and 596167. These kind of gaps have happened before and are not only possible but entirely expected given how mining works. Given that the hashrate graphs you see online are all estimated based on difficultly and the rate of blocks being mined, these graphs misinterpreted this gap as a drop in hashrate, when in actual fact it was a perfectly normal delay in blocks being mined.

In the hour before this gap, 10 blocks had been mined, which is way above average. Then we had a period which is way below average. If you look at the block production over several hours or days, it all averages out. Nothing happened except entirely normal random fluctuations, and people who don't understand how bitcoin works jumped on it as being some big news story.

It reminds me a lot of people who get panicked when they see a transaction of 10,000 bitcoins and are convinced the market is about to dump, and every time it turns out to be a complete non-story and just some exchange just moving their cold storage around.

[Carlton Banks]

Given that the hashrate graphs you see online are all estimated based on difficultly and the rate of blocks being mined, these graphs misinterpreted this gap as a drop in hashrate, when in actual fact it was a perfectly normal delay in blocks being mined.

well, not quite. the graphs were calculated perfectly well


If you look only at a very short period hashrate graph (say, 24 hours of data), then you only have very short windows over which to calculate the averages (e.g. a 24 hour period might use 1 line for the average over 4 hours, a 2nd line for the average over 2 hours and then a 3rd line for the average over 1 hour).

The misinterpretation was human, and deliberately so to exaggerate the effects of only 1 long block, 1 long block amongst many shorter than average blocks. If you focus on the shortest possible window to calculate the average predicted hashrate, of course it's going to indicate more extreme swings in variability, an average with very few data points is inherently more sensitive to higher variance than averages with larger amounts of data points.

It reminds me a lot of people who get panicked when they see a transaction of 10,000 bitcoins and are convinced the market is about to dump, and every time it turns out to be a complete non-story and just some exchange just moving their cold storage around.

anyone who gets tricked by this sort of thing deserves to lose their money, quite frankly

[Reosta_]

There are different sources that says different things about Bitcoin hash rate but there is not any source that proves hash rate dropped and got back to normal levels. So, we can't give a guarantee that Bitcoin price will start to rise up now.

[NeuroticFish]

We hope for the price recovery, but the history has shown us that's wiser to not expect anything.

And as said, that hashrate story is just a clickbait, most probably nothing has happened.

[franky1]

So, with the hash rate back to normal levels, do you expect the prices will start recovering?

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=60days

there is no evidence it ever dropped


long gaps between blocks (which is the only thing that definitely happened) are random. finding new blocks is probabilistic, not mechanistic. That means there is natural variability in how fast new blocks are solved, and natural variability can easily account for the tiny drop that happened for only a few hours on September 23rd.


If this isn't a whole load of bullshit psychological price manipulation, how come the price didn't react until Sep 24th, over 24 hours later? because it is, if you panic sold, you've been mugged

1. the time gap between blocks does not prove or disprove hashrate speed.
hashrate is based on speed and time. so even if say blocks done 600,000exa every 10 minutes (100ex/sec)
another pool can find a block in 6 minutes(400,000exa) but not broadcast it straight away, thus although the hash is 400k exa. the time shows as 10 minutes not 6 minutes because of the broadcast being late. thus appears to others as only ~60exa/s
thus giving a pool 4 minutes head start for the next block before anyone even knows there is a solved block
(yes pools have don this before and will do this again. although personally id say holding off for minutes is risky)

2. also the reason why there would be delay from hashrate drops to their being a price drop can be for several reasons
a. the 100block reward maturity = not able to spend coins instantly
b. the price unrelated to rewards of day, but traders fearing a scare, so reacting in a self fulfilling prophecy to cause the scare
c. the delay bing due to that not all traders watch hashrate but do watch news alerts, and news took time to notice and report

[bitart]

As Carlton says, there was a 1 hour 16 minute gap between blocks 596166 and 596167. These kind of gaps have happened before and are not only possible but entirely expected given how mining works.
...
In the hour before this gap, 10 blocks had been mined, which is way above average. Then we had a period which is way below average. If you look at the block production over several hours or days, it all averages out. Nothing happened except entirely normal random fluctuations, and people who don't understand how bitcoin works jumped on it as being some big news story.
...

Gaps happen quite frequently...
Last time I managed to see a gap (took nearly 40 minutes) was just after when my transaction got into a block and had to wait for that 40 minutes for another confirmation... after it, 3 block had been found in 5 minutes time.
So yes, in the end it all averaged out, but those 40 long minutes were really long for me that time

[Bountyhonter]

Bitcoin price will surely move up back that's how it has been for years and it will still continue to have lows and highs.

[Kakmakr]

It is all smoke and mirrors, because someone looking for something negative will always find something and they were lucky to find a temporary "slow Block" situation and used that to spread panic and fear to manipulate the price.    I seriously doubt that this was done on purpose by any large miner or a group of miners, like it is hyped in the media articles. 

One thing about Bitcoin is the counter measures that are put in place to balance out certain scenarios and it worked perfectly in this scenario.     The hash rate is back to normal now, even if it was wrongly interpreted by the media ... so let's get back to business.