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Author Topic: BTC bearish sentiment breaks 2018 levels & folks start calling the bottom  (Read 205 times)
baltasarlicht
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September 27, 2019, 02:48:56 PM
 #1

Bearish sentiment across Twitter, Reddit & Bitcointalk not been that high since Dec 2018!
And folks start calling the bottom:

https://i.imgur.com/9qZR4Ta.png
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September 27, 2019, 03:31:09 PM
 #2

Bearish sentiment across Twitter, Reddit & Bitcointalk not been that high since Dec 2018!
And folks start calling the bottom:



Thanks for sharing. It does look like bearish sentiment is approaching December 2018 levels. I don't think the market has bottomed yet based on the price action but that could be an indication we're getting close.

Does Augmento have any free data feeds? The site is hard to navigate.

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September 27, 2019, 03:44:23 PM
 #3

I don't think the market has bottomed yet based on the price action but that could be an indication we're getting close.

I also do not, I would not be surprised with figures below the $7k mark. But I do think that whatever bottom the value settles at would be a historic level, and we would not go below that again after the price bounces back from this period of dip.

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September 27, 2019, 04:21:34 PM
 #4

New metric for me, but I wonder if there's data that stretches back farther than that? I'd love to see 2016 when I properly entered, cause I remember a lot of no hopers and people trying to convince me I missed out already and was too late.

I must say the forum here also is beginning to see some of the doomsayers come out more actively with their "I told you sos". Usually this is a good time for me to whip out my invoice book and start chasing debts;)

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September 27, 2019, 11:13:08 PM
 #5

I must say the forum here also is beginning to see some of the doomsayers come out more actively with their "I told you sos". Usually this is a good time for me to whip out my invoice book and start chasing debts;)
This forum is a great representation of the overall crypto market in terms of measuring the sentiment. I however don't think that it means the bottom is in or that we're near a bottom, so I would wait a bit before jumping in.

Bearish sentiment can drag on for months straight where the sentiment turns worse each month that goes by. I really think we have to see some form of capitulation selloff before going back up again.

I also want to see the mainstream media like CNBC turn bearish for some time to actually be more comfortable about the current price action. Lately, they have been extremely bullish and we saw what the price did....

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September 28, 2019, 06:47:19 AM
 #6

that really isn't a good metric to look at. there are certain times where bitcoin price makes an unpredictable move like the past couple of days or the start of this year when it went below $6k and it surprises everyone so there is obviously a lot more topics being created about "the bottom" and the "sentiments", etc. but it really doesn't show anything about the actual "market sentiment" which can be anything even if the topics say something else.

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September 28, 2019, 01:48:57 PM
 #7

People having bearish taught is not really that important in bitcoin world. Normally what the price is decided is what people think it will do, because when people think it will go up they buy and because they buy it goes up, and when they think it goes down they sell so the price should go down.

However, even though that should be what happens, the reality is that there could be thousands upon thousands of people who do trades according to their feelings, there comes one or two whales who do thousands of bitcoins worth of trades and then it moves to another direction, so people sell because they think it will go down then a whale buys a bunch and it goes up or people think it will go up so they buy but a whale comes up and sells even more so it goes down.

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September 28, 2019, 01:56:57 PM
 #8

Pah. The people in this market are so pathetic and skittish that give it a $200 move upwards and it'll be back to '100k by Christmas' again.

After all this time I still find it pitiful how easily spooked or stoked people are.

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September 28, 2019, 04:58:17 PM
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 #9

Pah. The people in this market are so pathetic and skittish that give it a $200 move upwards and it'll be back to '100k by Christmas' again.

After all this time I still find it pitiful how easily spooked or stoked people are.

Maybe, but this was quite a drop. The weekly candle declined 23% from top to bottom. That's nothing to sneeze at.

I'd say the change in sentiment is notable. People were acting like another bull run was in the bag, riding Bakkt hype and talking about the halving next year. Now I'm seeing people say "$10K is impossible" and "we're in a new bear market now" etc.

Bull runs are built on pessimism and disbelief. Not everyone is bearish yet but we're getting there. Smiley

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September 28, 2019, 05:30:36 PM
 #10

Now I'm seeing people say "$10K is impossible" and "we're in a new bear market now" etc.

Precisely me point. It was a hefty move but not exactly unprecedented. It's happened before. I don't get why it's so hard to have just a little bit of perspective especially when it comes from people who've been around for a while.

If they wish to wallow in that sentiment and let it colour their moves then they should feel free. No one else is going to care and whatever happens won't pander to that attitude.


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September 28, 2019, 05:36:08 PM
 #11

@bithodler yeah it is isn't it? Kind of funny for me too how a lot of people also jump on the posts of others here and defend it with such fervour. Not really much different from Twittersphere or wherever else tbh.

But anyway, it's all fun and games and the more people tale it so seriously the more I enjoy it yay.

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September 28, 2019, 05:42:18 PM
 #12

Now I'm seeing people say "$10K is impossible" and "we're in a new bear market now" etc.

Precisely me point. It was a hefty move but not exactly unprecedented. It's happened before. I don't get why it's so hard to have just a little bit of perspective especially when it comes from people who've been around for a while.

In that way, crypto markets are no different than other markets. Stocks, whatever. You remember last December when the stock markets had a few bloody weeks? The markets were in panic and people were making comparisons to 2008 and even the Great Depression. Four months later, the S&P 500 made a new ATH. Cheesy

It's just the nature of markets.....herd mentality around fear and greed. That's why I never ignore sentiment data. When everyone is expecting the worst, the opposite usually happens, and vice versa.

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September 28, 2019, 05:47:33 PM
 #13

Pah. The people in this market are so pathetic and skittish that give it a $200 move upwards and it'll be back to '100k by Christmas' again.

After all this time I still find it pitiful how easily spooked or stoked people are.

Maybe, but this was quite a drop. The weekly candle declined 23% from top to bottom. That's nothing to sneeze at.

I'd say the change in sentiment is notable. People were acting like another bull run was in the bag, riding Bakkt hype and talking about the halving next year. Now I'm seeing people say "$10K is impossible" and "we're in a new bear market now" etc.

Bull runs are built on pessimism and disbelief. Not everyone is bearish yet but we're getting there. Smiley

I would still say there isn't much to panic about. It is still above $8000 and let's not forget the fact that it remains below $7K for most of the time in 2018. If it can recover 65% contraction of 2017-18 then this one is just a soft hit in the belly.
As we all know crypto market mainly rides on news and FOMOs and the events you mention especially halving next year are surely gonna create buzz again. I don't see any radical changes in speculative articles online. Most of them still stressing the idea that Bitcoin will cross the mark of $20K again next year.
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October 05, 2019, 01:54:40 PM
 #14

Now I'm seeing people say "$10K is impossible" and "we're in a new bear market now" etc.

Precisely me point. It was a hefty move but not exactly unprecedented. It's happened before. I don't get why it's so hard to have just a little bit of perspective especially when it comes from people who've been around for a while.

In that way, crypto markets are no different than other markets. Stocks, whatever. You remember last December when the stock markets had a few bloody weeks? The markets were in panic and people were making comparisons to 2008 and even the Great Depression. Four months later, the S&P 500 made a new ATH. Cheesy

It's just the nature of markets.....herd mentality around fear and greed. That's why I never ignore sentiment data. When everyone is expecting the worst, the opposite usually happens, and vice versa.

As long as the cryptocurrency market is made of people, I think we can be experiencing almost the same things that also baffled many traders in the stock market. When the sentiment is really down, there would be some who will magnify a good deal of possible gloom and doom scenarios and then surprisingly days after we see that things are just forgotten as new developments already enveloped the market. In other words, it can be so easy to swing the pendulum of extreme of pessimism to optimism sometimes even without any solid reasons.

Personally, the recent dip has not shocked me at all because I am sure that eventually Bitcoin will be back on its usual game and it would not matter to me if the bull will not be officially back until 2020. All of these things are just very normal part of the ups and down cycle of the whole market and this is true not just in cryptocurrency but in many other investment vehicles as well. So we might as well relax, see a movie, have fun and get a life while waiting for the bulls to come out and dominate the whole scene.




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October 05, 2019, 02:21:37 PM
 #15

So this day, we see bitcoin price is down and it still down. It is going to reach below than $8k but the war is still happening in the market but the price still goes down. Somehow, I think bitcoin price will make a new adjustment or correction for a while but I don't expect to see the price will go down deeper unless many people are panic to see the situations of the market. The support in the order buy is not too big and that will break with instant sell from people who panic. But if we check on the trend, we are still at a lower price and with a little correction after this, we might see the higher price comes.

 
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October 05, 2019, 03:39:56 PM
 #16

So how does this work exactly? If I post bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom - does this make the bottom come sooner? Or does it have to be in the thread title?

I always wanted to be a whale and manipulate the markets, this might be my dream coming true.
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October 05, 2019, 08:55:18 PM
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So how does this work exactly? If I post bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom - does this make the bottom come sooner? Or does it have to be in the thread title?

I always wanted to be a whale and manipulate the markets, this might be my dream coming true.

What is exactly your point? are you thinking that cryptocurrency can easily be manipulated? even if you post something like that it will not gain the most attention and most people would just notice you're just saying FUD in the market, I don't count on that kind of strategy and it is just wishful thinking on your side,

If you want to be a whale someday then work hard and you need to establish some good decision making when you are in the cryptocurrency market it is not easy at all, even though there are stories that a kid just earn millions by investing to bitcoin, this is just coincidental occurrence the kid is pretty lucky in gaining the upper hand because he mostly gets in the bitcoin boat when the price is very low, and right now it is not the same as before lightning will not strike the second time around, and you will need to work your ass in gaining profit with cryptocurrency.

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October 06, 2019, 12:05:28 AM
 #18

What is exactly your point? are you thinking that cryptocurrency can easily be manipulated? even if you post something like that it will not gain the most attention and most people would just notice you're just saying FUD in the market, I don't count on that kind of strategy and it is just wishful thinking on your side,

Lighten up and read the OP. The chart seems to imply that using the word "bottom" means some sort of market sentiment, not me.
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October 06, 2019, 03:43:16 AM
 #19

So how does this work exactly? If I post bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom - does this make the bottom come sooner? Or does it have to be in the thread title?

I always wanted to be a whale and manipulate the markets, this might be my dream coming true.

haha, that is exactly what OP thinks. and you'd be surprised to see how much of this type of thinking is going around. they have even created bots for it!!!
this has been a new trend too (probably a year old). basically people fail to predict bitcoin price movements through normal ways and the more they get surprised by the moves the more ridiculous ways they come up with next to try and predict price with.
"watching the social media" is the latest weird one. there was another similar one looking at google trends to try and associate number of searches with price rises!

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October 06, 2019, 09:34:13 AM
 #20

I'm not sure if you could fairly say that the bearish sentiment right now exceeds that of the 2018 bear market, because I think that is definitely a hell of an exaggeration if you ask me.

There were a lot more doomsayers in 2018 just anecdotally on this forum compared to now, with a ton of institutions that have turned their backs on bitcoin and called it a scam, etc. While right now, the fundamentals are infinitely better with institutional investors engaged, and LN deployed.

While this correction could last longer than some expect, I doubt it's going to be anything ultra-long term.

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