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Author Topic: The dimensions of SpaceX’s Starship 1 and 2 and Mars colonization  (Read 267 times)
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September 28, 2019, 11:59:25 PM
Merited by suchmoon (4), paxmao (1)
 #1

I already posted why I think that Elon Musk is wrong about the prospects of Mars colonization:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1741917.0

Because of the long travel time, the lack of gravity during the voyage and solar and cosmic radiation are major threats to any crew or passengers health.
Furthermore, Mars 1/3 of gravity, lack of a magnetic field able to protect residents from solar and cosmic radiation, perchlorate on Mars sands, low pressure and lack of oxygen on Mars atmosphere, all combine to make Mars a living hell.

Recently, another study confirmed how damaging radiation can be to the brain:
https://www.space.com/space-radiation-damage-mars-astronauts-brains.html

Unfortunately, SpaceX’s pictures of a future Mars colony, on the surface and without any means to create artificial gravity, seems another dream.

Anyone living there for a few years would get major health problems and probably wouldn’t be able to return to Earth gravity again.

The US Government would pay for the voyages of personal sent there for political reasons. And there would need to be a continuously rotating personal to avoid permanent damages. But the USA probably would veto the transportation of personal from other Governments, except major allies.

On the first times, there would be a few crazy tourists. After all, there are people willing to pay very well to go die on Everest. But that is a crazy month on their life, not about 3 years.

Also, some young scientists would be willing to ruin their health trying to make a name for themselves on Mars. But it would be a few of them.

So, I doubt Musk will be able to sell many tickets of 100,000/200,000 USDs to Mars.

That makes Starship a costly unnecessary big spacecraft. He could make history and send the first humans to Mars easily with a smaller one.

He is trying to create the Transcontinental Railroad on the XVIII century when there was no demand for it.

Check the wise Zubrin comments about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xN1rqhRSTE

Of course, that makes Musk’s projected Starship 2, with a diameter of 18 meters, another dream: https://www.businessinsider.nl/elon-musk-spacex-starship-mars-rocket-spaceship-next-generation-diameter-2019-8

A chemical propelled craft won’t ever have enough passengers on a Mars voyage to justify that dimensions.

We’ll need a new type of propelling system and a Mars base able to create artificial gravity (a moving one, in circle?) and completely protected from cosmic and solar radiation (underground?).
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September 29, 2019, 01:13:12 AM
Merited by suchmoon (4), paxmao (2), vapourminer (1)
 #2

Lets not forget that you get a single trip through the Van Allen Radiation belt when leaving the earth, and it pretty much guarantees that you will have cancer at some point.

Its really the low tech problems that are the long term problems. Even if we figure out some ultra energy and cost efficient way to shuttle people, you still have to deal with the space debris impacts on the planet. We on earth don't have many craters, take a look at mars. Magnetic fields and friction from the atmosphere are the reason why the earth has palm sized meteors land that tourists can search around for instead of more frequent dinosaur extinction causing high impact masses. Setting up little camps with artificial gravity, extreme air conditioning systems, grow lights, etc would not change the fact that we'd need to change the center of the planet to avoid immediate threats.

Finally, lets not forget the little green men that'd take offense to our colonization. Assuming we are technologically able to win the fight, we'd need to ethically decide whether we should.
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October 10, 2019, 12:28:45 PM
 #3

I believe, there are many decades before a man lands on mars.
In the mean time, technology can make new breakthroughs against radiation.
I strongly believe that after an anthropoid robot, an old man will follow willing to be sacrificed.
There will be many volunteers. Do you remember some years ago how many wanted to be the first to go there?
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October 10, 2019, 07:42:25 PM
 #4

Elon is always in for a bit of hype and free promo.
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October 12, 2019, 01:08:28 PM
 #5

Elon is always in for a bit of hype and free promo.

That goes without say  Grin

"The Boring Company" which might actually be boring work (as in uninteresting) and at the same be a different type of boring work (as in the act or process of making or enlarging a hole) might not get far off the ground to bore under the ground because of the regulation. Time will tell if the hype and the Elon effect works on that one.

As for Space X and the Mars project, it will be quite difficult to achieve though not impossible. While competitors such as Virgin and Blue Origin continue to make their own strides in to space the pressure will be on them to expand further than our own orbit. Maybe if they start announcing their own plans or prospectuses for Mars then things might very interesting as different type of space race might begin.
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October 15, 2019, 11:46:00 AM
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"The Boring Company" which might actually be boring work (as in uninteresting) and at the same be a different type of boring work (as in the act or process of making or enlarging a hole) might not get far off the ground to bore under the ground because of the regulation.

Elon plans ahead. I believe he is planning to bore tunnels to Mars and Moon too.
Tunnels would make great safe and shielded living spaces.

That is one reason he converted the boring machines to run on electricity.
And one reason why BFR is so big.
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October 22, 2019, 01:48:31 PM
 #7


That is one reason he converted the boring machines to run on electricity.


Please, just don't play shitstory. TBMs are running with electricity wayyy before Elon could walk.

It is estimated that Elon would need to reduce tunneling costs by a factor of more than 10. Drilling cost as today cannot be reduced by addressing a single factor, since there are around 10 main sources of costs and these include things such as permits, indirect costs, energy costs and many others that are not a problem of "Engineering"... As it is today, the Boring Company is a just a kids tale.

Having said that, reducing the diameter obviously reduces costs, yet there are safety factors to consider when doing so.
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November 20, 2019, 04:00:10 AM
 #8

Another study just confirmed how damaging is the lack of gravity for astronauts. It can disrupt the flow of blood in dangerous ways:
"Assessment of Jugular Venous Blood Flow Stasis and Thrombosis During Spaceflight"
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2755307

I think that SpaceX (with NASA jumping on board as soon as it realizes that Musk is really going to be able to send the first humans to Mars) will indeed send the first humans to Mars, not on 2024-2025, as Musk is aspirationally wanting, but possible before 2030.

But they will reach Mars on a debilitated health condition, with their immune system and vision affected and probably also with some small mental problems because of radiation exposure during the voyage.

After 6 months on gravity 0, they will also have muscular and bone problems, but, actually, Mars will help them on this.

When returning Earth, after 6 months on International Space Station, astronauts normally can't even stand up, much less walk on their own.

But humans on Mars will have to deal with only a third of the normal gravity, thanks to the low gravity of Mars. So, probably, even if with some problems, they will be able to walk and work in Mars about one year until the next window of Mars-Earth proximity in order to return to Earth.

However, even if, on a technological level, everything works according to plans, they will arrive Earth with very serious health problems. Wouldn't be surprised that some of them would die or would have permanent health conditions because of the voyage, beside the very increased risk of cancer.

But I agree that Musk won't have a lack of voluntaries to go. He can pay with glory and money all their health problems.

And Musk already left clear that the health of the first humans on Mars won't be a major concern.
"Elon Musk: First humans who journey to Mars must 'be prepared to die"
https://www.theverge.com/2016/9/27/13080836/elon-musk-spacex-mars-mission-death-risk

And taking in account that we are talking about the most remarkable achieve on humankind history I have to agree with him. Their life must be a major concern, their health, not really.

By the way, for the reasons I wrote here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1538764.msg29108349#msg29108349, I have serious doubts that there are any technological developed alien civilizations on our Galaxy. Science fiction assumed we were common beings, but it seems we are probably not only the most extraordinary being on the all of the galaxy, but the only real extraordinary being.

So, no problems from this perspective. No alien first contacts, except with unicellular beings and the occasional planet with complex basic animals. The Milky Way will be our backyard for us to take.

If that wasn't the case, we would see traces of any alien civilization all over the galaxy.

And Starship will cross the Van Allen Belt very fast. This isn't the problem, as long as there is no solar storm, but the other 6 months of exposure during the voyage:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_Allen_radiation_belt#Implications_for_space_travel
https://www.space.com/33948-van-allen-radiation-belts.html
"The astronauts on the ISS do not regularly spend time inside the belts, but from time to time solar storms expand the belts to the orbit of the space station. In the 1960s, several Apollo crews went through the Van Allen belts on their way to and from the moon. Their time in that radiation-intensive region, however, was very short, in part because the trajectory was designed to pass through the thinnest known parts. With more study, astronauts can be better protected for long-term stays in Earth orbit."

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January 06, 2020, 12:50:25 AM
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That is one reason he converted the boring machines to run on electricity.


Please, just don't play shitstory. TBMs are running with electricity wayyy before Elon could walk.

It is estimated that Elon would need to reduce tunneling costs by a factor of more than 10. Drilling cost as today cannot be reduced by addressing a single factor, since there are around 10 main sources of costs and these include things such as permits, indirect costs, energy costs and many others that are not a problem of "Engineering"... As it is today, the Boring Company is a just a kids tale.

Having said that, reducing the diameter obviously reduces costs, yet there are safety factors to consider when doing so.

Ultimately though, will the Boring project actually take off? Will there be a demand for it and will it be a financially viable business to operate after the small trialling tunnel are tested?
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January 09, 2020, 03:06:41 PM
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That is one reason he converted the boring machines to run on electricity.


Please, just don't play shitstory. TBMs are running with electricity wayyy before Elon could walk.

It is estimated that Elon would need to reduce tunneling costs by a factor of more than 10. Drilling cost as today cannot be reduced by addressing a single factor, since there are around 10 main sources of costs and these include things such as permits, indirect costs, energy costs and many others that are not a problem of "Engineering"... As it is today, the Boring Company is a just a kids tale.

Having said that, reducing the diameter obviously reduces costs, yet there are safety factors to consider when doing so.

Ultimately though, will the Boring project actually take off? Will there be a demand for it and will it be a financially viable business to operate after the small trialling tunnel are tested?

Maybe not. But it seems like Elon isn't doing this just for the money.
I think he wants a place in history books.
He wants to be remembered.
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January 10, 2020, 04:53:05 PM
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Ultimately though, will the Boring project actually take off? Will there be a demand for it and will it be a financially viable business to operate after the small trialling tunnel are tested?

elon musk wants to make things that are better priced to be used more often. if you look at the cost involved to make the euro tunnel between france and the UK, using elon musks method will make it cheaper for a similar tunnel to be made.

at the moment the US pay millions to russia to service the international space station. elons space x wants to make it cheap to take on that contract.
yes he wants some historic recognition to tell his grandkids. but he also wants to be a government contractor taking on huge projects at competitive prices... and its working.

he is getting alot of R&D money from science and eco-grants for his promises of helping science. to fund the projects that will then make profits fromm less science purposes.
he isnt interested in terraforming mars. he just wants to be the transport company of the government both above the atmosphere and below ground and on the road
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January 18, 2020, 11:23:03 PM
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That is one reason he converted the boring machines to run on electricity.


Please, just don't play shitstory. TBMs are running with electricity wayyy before Elon could walk.

It is estimated that Elon would need to reduce tunneling costs by a factor of more than 10. Drilling cost as today cannot be reduced by addressing a single factor, since there are around 10 main sources of costs and these include things such as permits, indirect costs, energy costs and many others that are not a problem of "Engineering"... As it is today, the Boring Company is a just a kids tale.

Having said that, reducing the diameter obviously reduces costs, yet there are safety factors to consider when doing so.

Ultimately though, will the Boring project actually take off? Will there be a demand for it and will it be a financially viable business to operate after the small trialling tunnel are tested?

Yes of course. My guess is that someone in Elon´s payrole finally noticed that most transport infrastructure in cities has to be buried. The money they can get from a Hyperloop system is peanuts compared to what they can make drilling.
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January 23, 2020, 04:58:24 PM
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Haven't they found a habitable planet? It's only 100 light years away. Elon would need some big batteries to send an electric rocket there. Smiley
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January 25, 2020, 03:17:28 PM
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Haven't they found a habitable planet? It's only 100 light years away. Elon would need some big batteries to send an electric rocket there. Smiley

or solar panels.

anyway elon wants to be the uber of transportation. and the governments engineet for cheap machanics.
imagine the euro tunnel costing 21bill. and then elon coming along and saying he can make eurotunnel 2 for less.

or other tunnels made cheaper than bridges
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January 25, 2020, 04:22:51 PM
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Ultimately though, will the Boring project actually take off? Will there be a demand for it and will it be a financially viable business to operate after the small trialling tunnel are tested?

Yes of course. My guess is that someone in Elon´s payrole finally noticed that most transport infrastructure in cities has to be buried. The money they can get from a Hyperloop system is peanuts compared to what they can make drilling.

The you have phrased it shows that in the end it seems all about money rather than about creating something which could be a useful tool.

The technology behind the hyperloop is interesting, I know there are some companies already testing these things. If it takes off in just one city then it just might be implemented in many places. I would prefer to see a hidden version of hyperloop where the tubes are not so visible or some how hidden so not to be an eyesore.
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January 25, 2020, 05:25:21 PM
 #16

elons 'boring' project is cheaper than above ground hyperloop

why?
simple. he doesnt have to buy the land. he doesnt need to deforrest, compensate displacement. doesnt then need to get architects and land surveyers to cost out leveling it. doesnt need all the stuff like bridges and other infrustructure.

he just drills a hole underground at no land vale cost less paperwork. less butting heads with people.

ofcourse once he has an effiecient drill. he can make alot of money by multiplying projects. just like hi space project. he is not interested in nasa's mission once on mars. he just interested in making a cheap way to get people to where they want

even his mega battery farm will make things cheaper. im from the UK and even the UK is developing battery farms for electric. that way when there is excess. its not lost. meaning it solves the supply demand when production supply is low. as they have stored supply.
elons not interested in being the top electrical company. he just wants to lease batteries and let others do ll the 'trading' stuff

so  if you want to be the next elon musk. think of something thats normally expensive and not well government funded because of the expense. and think of a way to do the job cheaper. then make and lease that idea to others for their projects

next projects i can see happening in the future that will revolutionise things.
1. desalinating sea water
2. small yardage high yielding farming
3. actual affordable housing construction
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February 03, 2020, 01:42:07 AM
 #17

elons 'boring' project is cheaper than above ground hyperloop

why?
simple. he doesnt have to buy the land. he doesnt need to deforrest, compensate displacement. doesnt then need to get architects and land surveyers to cost out leveling it. doesnt need all the stuff like bridges and other infrustructure.

he just drills a hole underground at no land vale cost less paperwork. less butting heads with people.

ofcourse once he has an effiecient drill. he can make alot of money by multiplying projects. just like hi space project. he is not interested in nasa's mission once on mars. he just interested in making a cheap way to get people to where they want

even his mega battery farm will make things cheaper. im from the UK and even the UK is developing battery farms for electric. that way when there is excess. its not lost. meaning it solves the supply demand when production supply is low. as they have stored supply.
elons not interested in being the top electrical company. he just wants to lease batteries and let others do ll the 'trading' stuff

so  if you want to be the next elon musk. think of something thats normally expensive and not well government funded because of the expense. and think of a way to do the job cheaper. then make and lease that idea to others for their projects

next projects i can see happening in the future that will revolutionise things.
1. desalinating sea water
2. small yardage high yielding farming
3. actual affordable housing construction


He can actually make the hyperloop on Mars without the pods since there's no atmosphere there and there's no need for tubes (<1% air density compared to Earth), with only rails.

Desalinization of sea water is already happening. It's a rather simple project.
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