Bitcoin Still Repeating History? 10 Part TA Series (September-October 2019)

[dragonvslinux]

OP finally updated, a few parts no longer active, only a few that remain relevant now. Half have now completed.

Descending Triangle Breakdowns

Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018 (I)
Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown (C)
Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low (I)
Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown
Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario (C)

Other Indicators

Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1 (I)
Part 7: Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross (C)
Part 8: Bitcoin's Full Moon Reversal 6 Month Pattern (C)
Part 9: TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?
Part 10: Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses

Completed (C) or Inactive (I) Patterns: no longer relevant

Click on images for "live" trading view charts, see next post for newer analysis

More relevant is some TA from the past few months:

Recent Bitcoin TA:

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Will probably update this monthly from now on, unless the there are major changes in how these 3 final parts are looking.

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[1715002320]

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[dragonvslinux]

Updated OP summary with results of initial targets (❓/❌/✔) for transparency sake. Looks like my summarized target has been achieved 

If Bitcoin Repeats History?
Descending Triangles Breakdown Summary

• 2012: Breakdown to $6,415 with 1 year consolidation (Part 4) ❓
• 2014: Breakdown to $2,500 with 1.5 years consolidation (Part 3) ❌
• 2017: Breakdown to $5,350 with 2 months consolidation (Part 5) ❌
• 2018: Breakdown to $5,050 with 6 months consolidation (Part 1) ❌
• 2019: Measured move to $6,410 to $6,875 (Part 2 & 5) ✔

That's a range between $2,500 and $6,875, with anywhere between 2-18 months of consolidation. ✔
Conclusion: Anything could happen. Look for clues.

Prediction reference: Published on TradingView (Part 5) September 17th 2019 @ $10,265.


As a reminder, we are now at the horizontal resistance level of the descending triangle breakdown, in case you might be wondering why price is facing resistance:



Although a descending triangle from many months ago may seem irrelevant, on the bigger picture, it's still the resistance level that needs to be broken (and found support above) for price to move higher. Fortunately, this isn't the first time testing this resistance level, so the chances of making breaking above and turning it into support is more likely, though bare in mind this acted as support for 3 months (July-September), hence acting as resistance for 3 months would not be surprising (October-January).

Credit to @Sawcruhteez for reminding me of this resistance level, despite the confirmation of a cup & handle pattern with a target of $11,800. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see prices move upto $10K this week based on 2019 possible fractal, followed by a pull back, then further upside:

[dragonvslinux]

Thought it was time to review some of last year's technical analysis before attempting to provide any fresh perspectives.
Part 1 and 3 have therefore been re-activated due to their relevance returning with Part 10 also cointuing to remain relevant:

Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018 (Short - Re-active)

Update 14/03/20: Price broke through major support that will now act as strong resistance, putting the $2,600 possibility back on the table.

Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low (Short - Re-active)

Update 14/03/20: Price has fallen back into the 2014 fractal, with $6,200 now anticipated as strong resistance as indicated. $2,500 is back on the table.

Part 10: Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses (Short - Active)

Update 14/03/20: Price is noticeably dropped to similar levels as the 2012 death cross, .

This doesn't mean I'm suddenly "bearish" again, I'm still relatively neutral, whilst acknowledging the bearish possibility of falling lower - I can't ignore my own TA!
Similar to Tone Vays who thinks there's a 10% of breaking new lows, I also believe there is a low chance (around 20-25%) of falling lower than the new $3,850 low.
I will be providing some neutral/bullish analysis next week, after the Weekly close, as given the uber-bearish sentiment in the markets, I'm feeling more bullish again