Bitcoin Forum
February 28, 2020, 07:07:23 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.19.0.1 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Bitcoin Repeating History: 10 Part TA Series (September-October 2019)  (Read 919 times)
dragonvslinux
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 630
Merit: 226


Permabull


View Profile WWW
September 29, 2019, 11:47:30 AM
Last edit: January 31, 2020, 01:59:57 PM by dragonvslinux
Merited by suchmoon (4), lionheart78 (2), El duderino_ (2), adaseb (1), veleten (1), Pab (1), o48o (1), exstasie (1), LeGaulois (1), Coin-1 (1), teosanru (1), tranthidung (1), masulum (1)
 #1

Descending Triangle Breakdowns

Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018 (I)
Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown (C)
Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low (I)
Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown
Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario (C)

Other Indicators

Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1 (I)
Part 7: Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross (C)
Part 8: Bitcoin's Full Moon Reversal 6 Month Pattern (C)
Part 9: TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?
Part 10: Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses


Completed (C) or Inactive (I) Patterns: no longer relevant

Click on images for "live" trading view charts, see next post for newer analysis



Analysis & Status

Similar (7)] | Relevant (3) | Irrelevant (0)
Short (7) | Neutral (3) | Long (0)
Active (3) | Completed (4) | Inactive (3)

Updated: January 23rd 2019



Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018 (Short - Inactive)

Update 23/01/20: Price confirmed support where resistance is fore-casted in the future, therefore negating the $2,600 possibility.




Source: Trading View, September 14th 2019. Screenshot: January 23th 2020.

The daily bars of the 2018 descending triangle are starting to match the current 2019 descending triangle . If the bearish breakdown also repeats itself in the same way, then this would be the outcome, continuing on from where the charts fit together. Notice how a similar bearish breakdown would take us to the 200 Week MA, given its current trajectory. This would be long-term bullish if this happened, ie finding support again one year later $2K higher. I'd therefore find it unlikely to return to a bear market, or even continued consolidation (which would both be under the 200 Week MA).



Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown (Short - Completed)

Update 23/12: Broke down as expected with a delayed but eventual re-test of triangle resistance that held up, price reached target within a $20 margin or error.





In 2018 there was an accuracy within 0.25% ($16) of the measured breakdown of the descending triangle . The calculation equaled $3,145 (-48.2%) with the low arriving at $3,129. Based on the 2019 Weekly descending triangle, the measured move of -32% takes the price to $6,410, give or take $16. If this Weekly triangle is breached to the upside I will calculate the Daily descending triangle, that has a reduced measured move.



Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low (Short - Inactive)

Update 23/01/20: Price followed the path of a "slow grind" reversal for a few months, but successfully broken away from previous pattern. Target of $2,500 cancelled.


This worst case scenario extrapolates the second half of the 2014 bear market going into 2020 with ATL at $2,500 and new ATH in November 2021, as well as reaching $30,000 within the same year. This assumes a double bottom will form in April 2020 prior to the halving, followed by 1.5 years of accumulation/consolidation, with a new ATH being made 4 years after the 2017 ATH.



Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown (Short - Re-Active)

Update 23/12: Price continues to find support from similar breakdown level as the 2012 consolidation, suggesting further range-bound prices until block halving.


Bitcoin 2012: Descending triangle breakdown to measured target of -20%. Price consolidated in a tight range between $4.21 to $5.30 after disbelief rally. 7 years later, Bitcoin 2019: Descending triangle with measured breakdown target of -32%. Repeating 2012 suggests a consolidation between $6,415 to $9,420 for 1 year.

The time frames are very different, however the emphasis here is on a BTCUSD descending triangle at the top of a disbelief rally from the bottom of the bear market after a 250% (3.5x) rise. The measured move back then was -20% that Bitcoin achieved. The -32% breakdown target after a 340% (4.4x) doesn't seem unreasonable.


Credit to KaliCrypto for the inspiration.



Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario (Short - Completed)

Updated 23/11: The re-test of triangle resistance was delayed but price successfully achieved breakdown target of $6,875, as expected.


I remind you of July 2017 descending triangle that completely overshot the measured target by around 12%. This is for all the traders who claim descending triangles never break to the downside in bull markets at the top of the trend. Bare in mind this was at the top of a full-blown bull market, after reaching a new ATH and 3.2x from April 2017 low. This was otherwise half way through the 2017 bull market from a 2016 low of $150, so roughly 20x. This is yet another example in the repeating Bitcoin history series to show how they do break to the downside, especially after parabolic bull markets.

The extrapolated breakdown comes to a low of $5,350 (-43%) with a measured target on the Daily descending triangle of $6,875 (-27%). Note this is different to the Weekly descending triangle measured target of $6,410 (-32% see Part 2 above), and is therefore dependent on BTC breaking out of the Weekly descending triangle to the upside, while remaining within the Daily triangle, which isn't a lot to ask for.
[1]

[1] Never happened, BTC broke down from Weekly descending triangle.



Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1 (Neutral - Inactive)

Update 23/01: Price flipped this month to a Green 1, which remains unconfirmed, but implies that the 1-4 candle correction is over, as opposed to a 7-9 count.


With the month of September coming to close in the coming days on a Monthly TD Sequential Red 1 price flip, October will be critical as to whether Bitcoin's monthly candle will close as a green 1 to break the sequential correction, or continue with another 6-8 red candles - as has happened in 2014 and 2018 during bear markets. Note that the Monthly Red 1 candles immediately preceding ATH have been excluded, as previously only have led to a 1-4 candle correction.

As intriguing is that 4 years have now passed since Bitcoin's 2014 Monthly Red 1 candle that led to the 2016-2017 bull market. Additionally, the monthly RSI has broken down from 60 (bullish) to neutral territory, indicating scope for a 7-9 candle correction.




Part 7: Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross (Short - Completed)

Update 24/10: Price broke down after further rejection followed by the bearish crossover as the nail in the coffin, pattern completed.


A quick look at the projected 200 EMA & MA bear-cross on the Daily chart . From the March 16th 2018 bearcross at $8,273, the bullcross didn't occur until over a year later on April 4th 2019 at $4,911 after a 40% correction. The current gain in price since this 2019 bullcross has been 60%. Unless the price moves above $8500 within the coming days, the EMA & MA bear-cross is due to occur by the end of the week.

Many traders complain that due to Bitcoin's volatility the MA bull & bear crosses on longer timeframes are delayed indicators, while others prefer to utilize the EMA's (Exponential Moving Averages) for this reason. Here you see the value of trading the 200 EMA & MA bull & bear crosses. Note that following the 2018 bearcross the price first increased by 20% to the 200 Day MA, before signaling the longer-term downtrend.




Part 8: Bitcoin's Full Moon Reversal 6 Month Pattern (Neutral - Completed)

Update 24/10: Price notably continued to move downwards after making a final swing high during the Harvest Moon, pattern completed.


Full moons in 2019

  • May 18 Flower Moon
  • Jun. 17 Strawberry Moon
  • Jul. 16 Buck Moon
  • Aug. 15 Sturgeon Moon
  • Sep. 14 Harvest Moon
  • Oct. 13 Hunter's Moon

Source: https://www.space.com/16830-full-moon-calendar.html



Part 9: TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction? (Neutral - (Re)-Active)

Updated 23/01: Price accurately followed the path of the "bullish TD 9" since the 9, implying further sideways movement until a breakout.


Next week looks set for a bullish TD Sequential 9 on the Weekly chart that hasn't been seen since July 2018. Back then this led to a 40% increase in the price of Bitcoin followed by 4 months of consolidation. This scenario is labeled "A". Extrapolation C is the inverse of the "bearish" TD 9 in April 2019 that led to a continuation of the bull trend. Hence, C is labeled as the "bullish" TD 9 but would be the most bearish scenario. Scenario B is the extrapolation of the 2018 wedge breakdown, as documented in Part 1 of the Bitcoin repeating history series.

The two year vpvr "average price" is referenced as a key level to break (and close) above at $8376.




Part 10: Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses (Short - Active)

Update 23/01: Price is noticeably now looking more similar to 2012 than 2018 bear-cross scenarios, as well as establishing it's own unique path.


It's time to talk about the bear cross that was confirmed yesterday, the 50 Day MA crossing the 200 Day MA. 3 out of 4 of Bitcoin's bear crosses have been bearish long-term indicating a further 50% drop in price (2011*, 2014 and 2018). In the shorter-term, Bitcoin also twice rallied by 50% in two of these occasions (2014 and 2015) before continuing higher or falling back down. Only 1 out of 4 of these cases it came at the end of the bear market, in 2015. Here are the current statistics and visual representation of the bear crosses: 2011*, 2014, 2015 and 2018.

*Correction: 2011 not 2012, as originally stated

Extrapolating these bear crosses to the current bear cross suggests the following:

  • 75% probability of reaching the descending triangle breakdown target of $6,410
  • 75% probability of dropping a further 50% before the block halving
  • 50% probability of rallying further to $12,000 by the end of October
  • 50% probability of double bottom at $3,200, specifically in July 2020
  • 25% probability of breaking above $9,410 and never coming back down.



If Bitcoin Repeats History?
Descending Triangles Breakdown Summary

  • 2012: Breakdown to $6,415 with 1 year consolidation (Part 4) ❓
  • 2014: Breakdown to $2,500 with 1.5 years consolidation (Part 3) ❌
  • 2017: Breakdown to $5,350 with 2 months consolidation (Part 5) ❌
  • 2018: Breakdown to $5,050 with 6 months consolidation (Part 1) ❌
  • 2019: Measured move to $6,410 to $6,875 (Part 2 & 5) ✔️

That's a range between $2,500 and $6,875, with anywhere between 2-18 months of consolidation. ✔️
Conclusion: Anything could happen. Look for clues.


1582916843
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1582916843

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1582916843
Reply with quote  #2

1582916843
Report to moderator
1582916843
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1582916843

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1582916843
Reply with quote  #2

1582916843
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
dragonvslinux
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 630
Merit: 226


Permabull


View Profile WWW
September 29, 2019, 12:54:57 PM
Last edit: January 30, 2020, 10:05:13 AM by dragonvslinux
Merited by EdenHazard (1)
 #2

Previous updates archived, now moved to OP. Merit received based on archived version of post.

Recent Bitcoin TA:







[/center]















YuginKadoya
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1610
Merit: 1028



View Profile
September 29, 2019, 05:43:52 PM
 #3

Anything can sure happen, but I really like your research and looking back on the recent charts and recent movements for bitcoin I should say your assumption is pretty detailed it can sure happen for the year of December could be a new All-time high but it could be a red flag as well, But if we passed the 2020 red outbreak  we may welcome a real All-time high, well judging by the chart if my theory is correct, But that period of consolidation is very long, Well I can handle the wait but that is how it works, 4 year wait then we might get another bull run for the year 2021 or 2020, in my opinion,

But this is all speculation and my way of analysis the charts.

BTCitcointalk
.    ██████████████████████████████████
                                                                 ██
                                                               ███   ██
                                                      ██      ███  ███
                                                     ███     ██  ███  ██
    ▄▄████▄▄    █▌                                         ███  ██  ██
  ██▀       ▀▀  █▌                                   ▀▀   ██▌███  ███ ██
▄█              █▌  ▄▄▄▄        ▄▄▄▄▄  ▄▄   ▄   ▄▄▄█▄████████ ████   
█▌              ███▀.   ██    ██     ▀███   ███▀
   ████████████████      ▐█
█               ██       █   ██        ██   ██
     █████████▌██████       ▐█
█▌              █▌       █▌  █         ██   ██
      ██████████▀   █       ▐█
 █▄             █▌       █▌
█████████████████████████████████▌     █       ██
  ▀██▄     ▄██  ██
████████▌██████████████████████████████████     ██▄   ▄███
     ▀████▀▀████████████████████▀▀▀▀▀██████               ██▄▀▀██    ▀▀▀  ██
   ███▀▀▄▄▄█████████████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀                           ██████▄     ██
 ███▄▄██████████▀                                                 ▀█████▀▀
                                                                        ███
.

█████████████████████████████
Program

❤️
Give Hope To Everyone
━━━━━━━» $1 Is A Big Thing For Them

❤️
.
Pab
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1862
Merit: 1012


View Profile
September 29, 2019, 05:59:30 PM
 #4

Thanks for sharing your work
If Bitcoin will close below 7350 $ on weekly or even on daily i will be very bearish
7350$ is 114 MA Peter Brandt trend line second one is 14 MA
I don"t believe any 3K or something like that but i am sure we will have a lot of dirty games and manipulation what will force people to sell at low level.
It could be that level of consolidation will be between 6600$ -7600$ or around
Many things begin to happen in the world and more will come
Personally i am not recognizing Bitcoin like a safe heaven but rather highly risky asset
So when appetite on risk will be back bitcoin price will begin to increase 

 
                                . ██████████.
                              .████████████████.
                           .██████████████████████.
                        -█████████████████████████████
                     .██████████████████████████████████.
                  -█████████████████████████████████████████
               -███████████████████████████████████████████████
           .-█████████████████████████████████████████████████████.
        .████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
       .██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████.
       .██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████.
       ..████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████..
       .   .██████████████████████████████████████████████████████.
       .      .████████████████████████████████████████████████.

       .       .██████████████████████████████████████████████
       .    ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████
       .█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████.
        .███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
           .█████████████████████████████████████████████████████
              .████████████████████████████████████████████████
                   ████████████████████████████████████████
                      ██████████████████████████████████
                          ██████████████████████████
                             ████████████████████
                               ████████████████
                                   █████████
.CryptoTalk.org.|.MAKE POSTS AND EARN BTC!.🏆
adaseb
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2254
Merit: 1181



View Profile
September 29, 2019, 08:16:54 PM
 #5

Giving you a merit because unlike most posts you at least support your analysis with a few charts. And I mostly am looking at the same thing. Right now however it doesn't look like we will hit the $6400 area yet without retesting the $9100 area resistance within the next few days or weeks.

But I think the halving should be interesting because historically it presented a small rising before the halving and usually a few weeks after the halving a huge surge happened. However we only have 2 data points so who knows if this time will it be the same.

People are expecting a pump and we might get the opposite, a dump. Just like people were expecting the $6000 area support to hold back in Nov 2018.

███████████████████████████
███████████████████████████
████████▀▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀▀████████
██████▀▄██▀▀▄▄ ████▄▀██████
█████ ███ ████ ▀▀████ █████
████ █████ ███▀▀▀▄████ ████
████ ███▀▀▀▄▄▄████████ ████
████ ██▄▄▀▀███████▀▄▄█ ████
█████ █████ █▀██▀▄███ █████
██████▄▀███▀▄█▀▄███▀▄██████
████████▄▄▀▀▀ ▀▀▀▄▄████████
██████████▀▄███████████████
██████████████████████████
.
.FORTUNEJACK   JOIN INVINCIBLE JACKMATE AND WIN......10 BTC........
█████████████████████████
█████████████████████████
██████▀▀▀       ▀▀▀██████
█████  ▄▄▄█████▄▄▄  █████
█████  █████ █████  █████
█████  ██▄     ▄██  █████
█████  ████   ████  █████
█████▄  ██▄▄█▄▄██  ▄█████
██████▄  ███████  ▄██████
███████▄   ▀▀▀   ▄███████
██████████▄▄ ▄▄██████████
█████████████████████████
█████████████████████████
.
..
exstasie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000


View Profile
September 29, 2019, 08:37:26 PM
 #6

Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018


Interesting comparison, although it employs some curve-fitting.

The chart cuts off the first half of 2018 which makes it look like last year's triangle was much smaller than it really is. The 2018 triangle was 3x as long (time-wise) than this one, implying a much stronger breakout in percentage terms. I don't think we can necessarily plan on a 63% decline this time.

josephdd1
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1162
Merit: 513


Luckydice.com


View Profile
September 29, 2019, 08:53:47 PM
 #7

It is very common for people to assume that a descending triangle is a falling wedge.. i for some time though they were the same, in fact, both are different are give two different indications.
Falling wedge is good. A descending triangle.. not so much. Falling wedge is almost always a bullish indicator and is different from a descending triangle as it has a sloping base. In case of a descending triangle, the base is horizontal..

▄▀▀▀▀▀▄▄              ▄▄▀▀▀▀▀▄
▐▌ █▄▄▄  ▀▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀▀  ▄▄▄█ ▐▌
█ ████▄█   ▀▄██████▄▀   █▄████ █
█ █▄▀▀  ▄ ▄  ▀▀▀▀▀▀  ▄ ▄  ▀▀▄█ █
▐ ▀     ▄▄▄          ▄▄▄     ▀ ▌
▐▌   ▄▀▀▄▄▄▀▀▄    ▄▀▀▄▄▄▀▀▄   ▐▌
▐▌  ▐█ █████ █    █ █████ █▌  ▐▌
█ ▄ ▐█ ▀███▀ █    █ ▀███▀ █▌ ▄ █
█▀  ▄▀▀▄▄▄▄▀▀ ▀██▀ ▀▀▄▄▄▄▀▀▄  ▀█
▀▄▄▀███▄▀▀     ▐▌     ▀▀▄███▀▄▄▀
▀▄██▄▀ ▄▄▄████████▄▄▄ ▀▄██▄▀
▀▀▄    ▀▀▀██████▀▀▀    ▄█▀
▀▀▀▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀▀▀▀

    ▄▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄▄      ▐▌
  ▄▀███████████▀▄  ▀███▄
 ▐▌███████████████  ▐▌
 ▌███████▄▄▄█████▐▌
████▀▀▀▄▄▄▄▄▄██▐▌
███▄▄█▀█▄▄▄▄███▐▌
███▄█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄███▐▌
██████▄▄█▄▄████
████▀█▄▄█▄▄█▄██
████████████▀▀██
 ▀▄████████████▄▀
   ▀▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀▀
.Luckydice.
██ ██
▄▄ ▄▄
▀▀ ▀▀
██ ██
▄▄ ▄▄
▀▀ ▀▀
██ ██

██ ██
▄▄ ▄▄
▀▀ ▀▀
██ ██
▄▄ ▄▄
▀▀ ▀▀
██ ██
.PLAY NOW.
██ ██
▄▄ ▄▄
▀▀ ▀▀
██ ██
▄▄ ▄▄
▀▀ ▀▀
██ ██
dragonvslinux
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 630
Merit: 226


Permabull


View Profile WWW
September 29, 2019, 09:10:21 PM
 #8

Giving you a merit because unlike most posts you at least support your analysis with a few charts. And I mostly am looking at the same thing. Right now however it doesn't look like we will hit the $6400 area yet without retesting the $9100 area resistance within the next few days or weeks.

I agree with this sentiment, a retest of triangle breakdown does seem more likely and the current scenarios that are playing out (Part 2, 4 and arguably 5) include this likelihood.

Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018


Interesting comparison, although it employs some curve-fitting.

The chart cuts off the first half of 2018 which makes it look like last year's triangle was much smaller than it really is. The 2018 triangle was 3x as long (time-wise) than this one, implying a much stronger breakout in percentage terms. I don't think we can necessarily plan on a 63% decline this time.

Agreed, hence the measured move (Part 2) working out to $6,410 instead for the Weekly triangle that broke down, rather than the $5k area of -63% (top to bottom). Consider Part 2 a correction to Part 1 regarding he measured move of the breakdown (hence the title). Part 1 was an extrapolation of the 2017 drop, which I found interesting as it would take the price towards the trajectory of the 200 Week MA for support (where BTC was last supported at it's swing low), but they are not proportionate you are right. The descending triangle also broke down much sooner than that of 2018, as you mentioned, so should not be considered a valid pattern at present.



I don't see how you could extend the triangle any further than the above however. That initial wick down to $6k you see was the first time the price reached this support level.
I'd be happy to see an alternative triangle which shows a drop further than 50%, given the swing high was $12k and the low was $6k, but would consider the evidence if provided.

Strongkored
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1302
Merit: 1007


LuckyB.it is Back!


View Profile
September 29, 2019, 09:52:52 PM
 #9

Observations and analyzes that can help many people.

I myself think that Bitcoin will always follow the same pattern every year especially if approaching the halving year.

Out there are too many predictions that say it will touch the price of $3,000 I feel is impossible.

In my opinion it is difficult to drop below $5,000, but the worse case maybe can happen there many different thing affacted BTC currently.


                         ▄▄▄▄▄▄
             ▄▄█████▄▄███████████▄▄
     ▄▄    ▄████▀▀█████▀▀▀  ▄███████▄
  ▄█████  ████    ███▀     ███▀▀▀████▌
 ▐██▀    ████    ▐██▀  ▄  ▐███    ███▌
 ▐██▄   █████  ▄▄███  ███ ███▌   ▄███
  ▀█████████████████▄███ ▐█████████▀
    ▀▀▀▀████▀▀  ▀▀████▀  ██████████
       ▐███▌            ▐███    ▀███▄
       ████             ███▌     ████
    ▄▄█████       ▄██▄ ▐███     ▄███▀
 ▄███████████▄▄▄█████▀ █████▄▄▄████▀
█████▀▀▀▀██████████▀ ▐███████████▀
▀▀          ▀▀▀▀▀     ▀▀▀▀  ▀▀▀













██████████████████
████████████████████████
████████████████████████████
███████████████████████▀▀    ███
████████████████████▀▀   ▄▄██  ███
██████████████████▀▀   ▄▄██████  █████
██
████████████▀▀   ▄▄██████████  █████
███
████████▀▀   ▄▄██████████████  ██████
██
█████▀▀   ▄▄██████████████████  ██████
██
██▀   ▄▄██████████████████████  ██████
██
██
▄▄██████████████████████████  ██████
██
██
████████████████████████████  ██████
███
██
███████████████████████████  ██████
██
███
█████████████████████████  █████
████
██
█████████████████████████  █████
███
██
████████████████████████████
███
████
██████████████████████████
████
█████
███████████████████
██████
██████████████████
██████████████████












● Great Prizes
● Trophies
● The Original Plinko
● Great Community
● Chat Lotto
● Low House Edge
dragonvslinux
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 630
Merit: 226


Permabull


View Profile WWW
September 30, 2019, 10:52:59 AM
 #10

Here's the first update for Part 1-5 from the Weekly close, for those who can't press play to see the result of the analysis.
I think it's fair to say there are similarities in all these scenarios so far.

Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018



Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown



Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low



Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown



Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario



Part 6 will be added on the Monthly close tomorrow Smiley I'll otherwise try and keep these updated when relevant, if they are still being useful.

carlfebz2
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1414
Merit: 628


LuckyB.it is Back!


View Profile
September 30, 2019, 03:04:34 PM
 #11


Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario




This part 5 is really interesting to look at but breakouts can happen on least we expect.Patterns might happen or not
Im not fan of looking or to believe on triangle breakouts but its good to look at which we do have at least some basis.
Does history repeat itself? Lets see on upcoming days and weeks.

                         ▄▄▄▄▄▄
             ▄▄█████▄▄███████████▄▄
     ▄▄    ▄████▀▀█████▀▀▀  ▄███████▄
  ▄█████  ████    ███▀     ███▀▀▀████▌
 ▐██▀    ████    ▐██▀  ▄  ▐███    ███▌
 ▐██▄   █████  ▄▄███  ███ ███▌   ▄███
  ▀█████████████████▄███ ▐█████████▀
    ▀▀▀▀████▀▀  ▀▀████▀  ██████████
       ▐███▌            ▐███    ▀███▄
       ████             ███▌     ████
    ▄▄█████       ▄██▄ ▐███     ▄███▀
 ▄███████████▄▄▄█████▀ █████▄▄▄████▀
█████▀▀▀▀██████████▀ ▐███████████▀
▀▀          ▀▀▀▀▀     ▀▀▀▀  ▀▀▀













██████████████████
████████████████████████
████████████████████████████
███████████████████████▀▀    ███
████████████████████▀▀   ▄▄██  ███
██████████████████▀▀   ▄▄██████  █████
██
████████████▀▀   ▄▄██████████  █████
███
████████▀▀   ▄▄██████████████  ██████
██
█████▀▀   ▄▄██████████████████  ██████
██
██▀   ▄▄██████████████████████  ██████
██
██
▄▄██████████████████████████  ██████
██
██
████████████████████████████  ██████
███
██
███████████████████████████  ██████
██
███
█████████████████████████  █████
████
██
█████████████████████████  █████
███
██
████████████████████████████
███
████
██████████████████████████
████
█████
███████████████████
██████
██████████████████
██████████████████












● Great Prizes
● Trophies
● The Original Plinko
● Great Community
● Chat Lotto
● Low House Edge
figmentofmyass
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1316
Merit: 1153



View Profile
September 30, 2019, 07:12:58 PM
 #12

  • 2012: Breakdown to $6,415 with 1 year consolidation (Part 4)
  • 2014: Breakdown to $2,500 with 1.5 years consolidation (Part 3)
  • 2017: Breakdown to $5,350 with 2 months consolidation (Part 2)
  • 2018: Breakdown to $5,050 with 6 months consolidation (Part 1)
  • 2019: Measured move to $6,410 to $6,875 (Part 2 & 5)

That's a range between $2,500 and $6,875, with anywhere between 2-18 months of consolidation. Conclusion: Anything could happen. Look for clues.

the bears must be licking their chops now! $2500---i think that's the lowest target i've seen yet!

i'm leaning towards $6300-$7500 range for a final bottom and definitely favoring "part 5" more than any of the others. what odds would you give that scenario?

dragonvslinux
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 630
Merit: 226


Permabull


View Profile WWW
September 30, 2019, 07:49:04 PM
Last edit: September 30, 2019, 08:34:39 PM by dragonvslinux
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #13

  • 2012: Breakdown to $6,415 with 1 year consolidation (Part 4)
  • 2014: Breakdown to $2,500 with 1.5 years consolidation (Part 3)
  • 2017: Breakdown to $5,350 with 2 months consolidation (Part 2)
  • 2018: Breakdown to $5,050 with 6 months consolidation (Part 1)
  • 2019: Measured move to $6,410 to $6,875 (Part 2 & 5)

That's a range between $2,500 and $6,875, with anywhere between 2-18 months of consolidation. Conclusion: Anything could happen. Look for clues.

the bears must be licking their chops now! $2500---i think that's the lowest target i've seen yet!

i'm leaning towards $6300-$7500 range for a final bottom and definitely favoring "part 5" more than any of the others. what odds would you give that scenario?

Yeh $2500 is not a level I would expect either, as I referenced that would be so bearish if we got near there we'd be talking about $1500 again! So very doubtful imo. I can only see it happening if we get stuck between $6k and $8k for "too long" without being able to break through resistance. Then we would plunge lower for sure. Personally I'm leaning to $5,500 to $6,500, to the measured target with the possibility of people getting confused and overselling it, similarly to Part 5.

The chance of Part 5 happening, at this point in time, is probably the same as flipping a coin and seeing if it lands on heads or tails.  None of these charts give you any probabilities, they only showing where price has previously gone when measured targets are set based on bearish patterns. Apart from Part 3, the worst case scenario, they all look more or less accurate for now, so the price could follow any direction from here onwards.

Disclaimer: I'm buying it as it goes down because of what these charts tell me.

exstasie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000


View Profile
September 30, 2019, 08:22:58 PM
 #14

Personally I'm leaning to $5,500 to $6,500, to the measured target with the possibility of people getting confused and overselling it, similarly to Part 5.

The chance of Part 5 happening, at this point in time, is probably the same as flipping a coin and seeing if it lands on heads or tails.  None of these charts give you any probabilities, they only showing where price has previously gone when measured targets are set based on bearish patterns. Apart from Part 3, the worst case scenario, they all look more or less accurate for now, so the price could follow any direction from here onwards.

Disclaimer: I'm buying it as it goes down because of what these charts tell me.

Excellent analysis. My expected target range is essentially the 0.618-0.786 retracement area, which lines up nicely with some historic S/R. In the "overselling" scenario, that points to a bottom in the $5,400s. That would be a hell of a knife catch opportunity!

Heimer
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 250


View Profile
September 30, 2019, 09:37:51 PM
 #15

Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018
Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown
Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low
Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown
Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario
Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1


Click on images for "live" trading view charts or click here for updated versions



Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018



Source: Trading View, September 14th 2019

The daily bars of the 2018 descending triangle are starting to match the current 2019 descending triangle . If the bearish breakdown also repeats itself in the same way, then this would be the outcome, continuing on from where the charts fit together. Notice how a similar bearish breakdown would take us to the 200 Week MA, given its current trajectory. This would be long-term bullish if this happened, ie finding support again one year later $2K higher. I'd therefore find it unlikely to return to a bear market, or even continued consolidation (which would both be under the 200 Week MA).



Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown



Source: Trading View, September 15th 2019

In 2018 there was an accuracy within 0.25% ($16) of the measured breakdown of the descending triangle . The calculation equaled $3,145 (-48.2%) with the low arriving at $3,129. Based on the 2019 Weekly descending triangle, the measured move of -32% takes the price to $6,410, give or take $16. If this Weekly triangle is breached to the upside I will calculate the Daily descending triangle, that has a reduced measured move.



Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low



Source: Trading View, September 15th 2019

This worst case scenario extrapolates the second half of the 2014 bear market going into 2020 with ATL at $2,500 and new ATH in November 2021, as well as reaching $30,000 within the same year. This assumes a double bottom will form in April 2020 prior to the halving, followed by 1.5 years of accumulation/consolidation, with a new ATH being made 4 years after the 2017 ATH.



Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown



Source: Trading View, September 16th 2019

Bitcoin 2012: Descending triangle breakdown to measured target of -20%. Price consolidated in a tight range between $4.21 to $5.30 after disbelief rally. 7 years later, Bitcoin 2019: Descending triangle with measured breakdown target of -32%. Repeating 2012 suggests a consolidation between $6,415 to $9,420 for 1 year.

The time frames are very different, however the emphasis here is on a BTCUSD descending triangle at the top of a disbelief rally from the bottom of the bear market after a 250% (3.5x) rise. The measured move back then was -20% that Bitcoin achieved. The -32% breakdown target after a 340% (4.4x) doesn't seem unreasonable.


Credit to KaliCrypto for the inspiration.



Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario



Source: Trading View, September 17th 2019

I remind you of July 2017 descending triangle that completely overshot the measured target by around 12%. This is for all the traders who claim descending triangles never break to the downside in bull markets at the top of the trend. Bare in mind this was at the top of a full-blown bull market, after reaching a new ATH and 3.2x from April 2017 low. This was otherwise half way through the 2017 bull market from a 2016 low of $150, so roughly 20x. This is yet another example in the repeating Bitcoin history series to show how they do break to the downside, especially after parabolic bull markets.

The extrapolated breakdown comes to a low of $5,350 (-43%) with a measured target on the Daily descending triangle of $6,875 (-27%). Note this is different to the Weekly descending triangle measured target of $6,410 (-32% see Part 2 above), and is therefore dependent on BTC breaking out of the Weekly descending triangle to the upside, while remaining within the Daily triangle, which isn't a lot to ask for.
[1]

[1] Never happened, BTC broke down from Weekly descending triangle.



Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1



Source: Trading View, September 28th 2019

With the month of September coming to close in the coming days on a Monthly TD Sequential Red 1 price flip, October will be critical as to whether Bitcoin's monthly candle will close as a green 1 to break the sequential correction, or continue with another 6-8 red candles - as has happened in 2014 and 2018 during bear markets. Note that the Monthly Red 1 candles immediately preceding ATH have been excluded, as previously only have led to a 1-4 candle correction.

As intriguing is that 4 years have now passed since Bitcoin's 2014 Monthly Red 1 candle that led to the 2016-2017 bull market. Additionally, the monthly RSI has broken down from 60 (bullish) to neutral territory, indicating scope for a 7-9 candle correction.




If Bitcoin Repeats History?

  • 2012: Breakdown to $6,415 with 1 year consolidation (Part 4)
  • 2014: Breakdown to $2,500 with 1.5 years consolidation (Part 3)
  • 2017: Breakdown to $5,350 with 2 months consolidation (Part 2)
  • 2018: Breakdown to $5,050 with 6 months consolidation (Part 1)
  • 2019: Measured move to $6,410 to $6,875 (Part 2 & 5)

That's a range between $2,500 and $6,875, with anywhere between 2-18 months of consolidation. Conclusion: Anything could happen. Look for clues.

This is probably one of the rarest post that contains some value and good insight on current market situation. Thank you for your effort my friend Smiley
scambust
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1610
Merit: 1007



View Profile
October 01, 2019, 07:35:42 PM
 #16

I dunno. I also feel bearish but the weekly chart is way too oversold. Maybe if the next cycle high momentum is weak and stalls around $9,500 - $10,000, we will indeed be seeing your predicted lows.

But do not discount the buying before the May 2020 halving event.


▄▄▄███████▄▄▄
▄▄█████▀▀''`▀▀█████▄▄
▄███P'            `YY██▄
▄██P'                  `Y██▄
███'                      `███
███'                         ███
▄██'   ▄█████▄▄  ,▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄p   ███
▄██▀  ,████▀P▀███.`██████████P   ▀██▄
███[ ,████ __. ███.   ,▄████▀    ███
███[ ]████████████[  ▄████▀       ███
███[ `████   ,oo2 ▄████▀'       ,███
▀██▄  `████▄▄█████d███████████   ▄██▀
▀██.   `▀▀▀▀▀▀"  Y▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀  ,██▀
███.                        ,███
▀██▄                      ▄██▀
▀███▄_                 ,███▀
▀███▄▄_          _▄▄███▀
▀▀████▄▄ooo▄▄█████▀
▀▀███████▀▀'

365

TM

EZ365 is a digital ecosystem that combines
the best aspects of online gaming, cryptocurrency
trading
and blockchain education. ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

..WHITEPAPER..    ..INVESTOR PITCH..

.Telegram     Twitter   Facebook

                       .'M████▀▀██  ██
                      W█Ws'V██  ██▄▄███▀▀█
                     i█████m.~M████▀▀██  ███
                     d███████Ws'V██  ██████
                     ****M██████m.~███f~~__mW█
          ██▀▀▀████████=  Y██▀▀██W ,gm███████
      g█████▄▄▄██   █A~`_WW Y█  ██!,████████
   g▀▀▀███   ████▀▀`_m████i!████P W███  ██
 _███▄▄▄██▀▀▀███Af`_m███   █W ███A ]███  ██
__ ~~~▀▀▀▀▄▄▄█*f_m██████   ██i!██!i███████
Y█████▄▄▄▄__. i██▀▀▀██████████ █!,██████
 8█  █▀▀█████.!██   ██████████i! █████
 '█  █  █   █W M█▄▄▄██████   ██ !██
  !███▄▄█   ██i'██████████   ██
   Y███████████.]██████████████
   █   ███████b ███   ██████
   Y   █   █▀▀█i!██   ████
    V███   █  █W Y█████
      ~~▀███▄▄▄█['███
            ~~*██

Play

            │
    │      ███
    │      ███
    │      ███
    │   │  ███
   ███  │  ███
   ███ ███ ███
 │  ███ ███ ███
███ ███ ███ ███
███ ███  │   │
███ ███  │   │
 │   │
 │

Trade

           __▄▄████▄▄
     __▄▄███████████████▄▄▄
 _▄▄█████████▀▀~`,▄████████████▄▄▄
 ~▀▀████▀▀~`,_▄▄███████████████▀▀▀
   d█~  =▀███████████████▀▀
   ]█! m▄▄ '~▀▀▀████▀▀~~ ,_▄▄
  ,W█. *████▄▄__ '  __▄▄█████
  !██P  █████████████████████
   W█. - ██████████████████▀
  i██[   ~ ▀▀█████████▀▀▀
 g███!
Y███

Learn
mazdafunsun
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 462
Merit: 121


send and receive money instantly, with no hidden c


View Profile
October 01, 2019, 08:11:33 PM
 #17

I also have red several predictions tied to 2017 btc pattern and I agree that it would be best case scenario. The thing i did not know that in 2017 pattern there was important event - mt gox and I dont believe tat bakkt is equally important event. So thats a negative aspect for the best case scenario.

scambust
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1610
Merit: 1007



View Profile
October 07, 2019, 08:21:28 PM
 #18

I also have red several predictions tied to 2017 btc pattern and I agree that it would be best case scenario. The thing i did not know that in 2017 pattern there was important event - mt gox and I dont believe tat bakkt is equally important event. So thats a negative aspect for the best case scenario.

Bakkt launch was an important event. It was probably the reason why the Bitcoin price took off in March. Something like buying the rumor and selling the news type of trading. As you can see the price fell from the triangle exactly on September 23. But the thing is unlike December 2017, the price is not yet in a parabolic move. I think the halving event will be the parabolic move.


▄▄▄███████▄▄▄
▄▄█████▀▀''`▀▀█████▄▄
▄███P'            `YY██▄
▄██P'                  `Y██▄
███'                      `███
███'                         ███
▄██'   ▄█████▄▄  ,▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄p   ███
▄██▀  ,████▀P▀███.`██████████P   ▀██▄
███[ ,████ __. ███.   ,▄████▀    ███
███[ ]████████████[  ▄████▀       ███
███[ `████   ,oo2 ▄████▀'       ,███
▀██▄  `████▄▄█████d███████████   ▄██▀
▀██.   `▀▀▀▀▀▀"  Y▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀  ,██▀
███.                        ,███
▀██▄                      ▄██▀
▀███▄_                 ,███▀
▀███▄▄_          _▄▄███▀
▀▀████▄▄ooo▄▄█████▀
▀▀███████▀▀'

365

TM

EZ365 is a digital ecosystem that combines
the best aspects of online gaming, cryptocurrency
trading
and blockchain education. ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

..WHITEPAPER..    ..INVESTOR PITCH..

.Telegram     Twitter   Facebook

                       .'M████▀▀██  ██
                      W█Ws'V██  ██▄▄███▀▀█
                     i█████m.~M████▀▀██  ███
                     d███████Ws'V██  ██████
                     ****M██████m.~███f~~__mW█
          ██▀▀▀████████=  Y██▀▀██W ,gm███████
      g█████▄▄▄██   █A~`_WW Y█  ██!,████████
   g▀▀▀███   ████▀▀`_m████i!████P W███  ██
 _███▄▄▄██▀▀▀███Af`_m███   █W ███A ]███  ██
__ ~~~▀▀▀▀▄▄▄█*f_m██████   ██i!██!i███████
Y█████▄▄▄▄__. i██▀▀▀██████████ █!,██████
 8█  █▀▀█████.!██   ██████████i! █████
 '█  █  █   █W M█▄▄▄██████   ██ !██
  !███▄▄█   ██i'██████████   ██
   Y███████████.]██████████████
   █   ███████b ███   ██████
   Y   █   █▀▀█i!██   ████
    V███   █  █W Y█████
      ~~▀███▄▄▄█['███
            ~~*██

Play

            │
    │      ███
    │      ███
    │      ███
    │   │  ███
   ███  │  ███
   ███ ███ ███
 │  ███ ███ ███
███ ███ ███ ███
███ ███  │   │
███ ███  │   │
 │   │
 │

Trade

           __▄▄████▄▄
     __▄▄███████████████▄▄▄
 _▄▄█████████▀▀~`,▄████████████▄▄▄
 ~▀▀████▀▀~`,_▄▄███████████████▀▀▀
   d█~  =▀███████████████▀▀
   ]█! m▄▄ '~▀▀▀████▀▀~~ ,_▄▄
  ,W█. *████▄▄__ '  __▄▄█████
  !██P  █████████████████████
   W█. - ██████████████████▀
  i██[   ~ ▀▀█████████▀▀▀
 g███!
Y███

Learn
figmentofmyass
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1316
Merit: 1153



View Profile
October 08, 2019, 09:59:24 PM
 #19

Bakkt launch was an important event. It was probably the reason why the Bitcoin price took off in March. Something like buying the rumor and selling the news type of trading.

we were already trading in the $8000s in may when we got the first bakkt news of the year that user acceptance testing was slated for july. so i hardly think bakkt hype was the reason for the whole bull run.

it was a "sell the news" event, i'll give you that. but i think the "buy the rumor" phase was in mid-august when they finally announced a launch date.

Pab
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1862
Merit: 1012


View Profile
October 08, 2019, 10:36:09 PM
 #20

There is problem with liquidity in general.Best pattern what works for me now is RSI 30 buy and RSI around 60 sell.Of course it can change.Price is stagnant volume is low.Financial environment not so much supporting risky assets like Bitcoin is.Crash on stocks is coming i don"t think Wall Street will avoid really big sell .i don"t believe in Bitcoin price below 6600 $ and even in not so much in 6600$
 

 
                                . ██████████.
                              .████████████████.
                           .██████████████████████.
                        -█████████████████████████████
                     .██████████████████████████████████.
                  -█████████████████████████████████████████
               -███████████████████████████████████████████████
           .-█████████████████████████████████████████████████████.
        .████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
       .██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████.
       .██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████.
       ..████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████..
       .   .██████████████████████████████████████████████████████.
       .      .████████████████████████████████████████████████.

       .       .██████████████████████████████████████████████
       .    ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████
       .█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████.
        .███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
           .█████████████████████████████████████████████████████
              .████████████████████████████████████████████████
                   ████████████████████████████████████████
                      ██████████████████████████████████
                          ██████████████████████████
                             ████████████████████
                               ████████████████
                                   █████████
.CryptoTalk.org.|.MAKE POSTS AND EARN BTC!.🏆
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!