20% price drop 7 months before the May 2020 halving?

[truehedge]

Hello Everyone,

I suppose everyone is well aware that the next Bitcoin halving will be around May 2020 which makes it 7 months before the halving.

Previous two halvings happened on 2012-11-28 and 2016-07-09.

Looking 7 months before the halving in 2012 and 2016 I don't see a parallel for the current situation. I'm not sure how much of a market we can talk about in April 2012 but the December of 2015 probably was a valid and well quite developed market, yet I don't see any huge drops around December 2015 (between 2015-11-02 and 2015-11-09 it went from $501 to $297 but back then this was still considered "normal" I suppose).

So how is it different now? What actually triggered the sell-off and why it happened?

• Is it just random walk and it will recover in 2 weeks?
• Is it the futures market swinging it?
• Is it the deteriorating economic conditions?
• Something else?

To me this looks like the sell-off during November 2018 when we went from $6300 to $3100 in matter of 4 weeks which made absolutely no sense to me either.

Any thoughts especially with references are greatly appreciated.

Reference: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

[pooya87]

yet I don't see any huge drops around December 2015 (between 2015-11-02 and 2015-11-09 it went from $501 to $297 but back then this was still considered "normal" I suppose).

it is all about the percentage-wise size of any movement not the absolute size. from $501 to $297 is a 40% drop so it can not be considered "normal" really even in bitcoin market. so if you wanted to compare it to this month's drop it is half that size.
in any case i don't think we can make this kind of comparison on small levels. we can compare them with a bigger perspective meaning expecting the big hyped up rise 1-2 months prior to the halving, a mini bubble by the time of halving, its burst right on halving and slow rise 1 month after it.

[Dart18]

It is still far away.
So what could be the reason behind all this dump?
In my own humble opinion, it could be just for making ready for the next bull run.
They want it cheap, but they are having a hard time making people bite the FUD or the dump which they have done. Manipulating the bitcoin market could really be a difficult task.

[mk4]

yet I don't see any huge drops around December 2015 (between 2015-11-02 and 2015-11-09 it went from $501 to $297 but back then this was still considered "normal" I suppose).

It's more "normal" back then because volatility was expectedly very high, but it's pretty much the same today. Liquidity might got higher, but it's still almost just as volatile.

One thing you should remember: regardless how much bitcoin is being generated per block, heck, it could be .01 BTC per block, but if there isn't enough demand to clear off the sell offers on exchanges, don't really expect a price rise. Though supply is definitely a huge factor, demand is still the biggest factor.

[exstasie]

Looking 7 months before the halving in 2012 and 2016 I don't see a parallel for the current situation.

Every cycle is different. Even if we're in another bullish cycle, it won't look the same as the previous ones.

I'm not sure how much of a market we can talk about in April 2012 but the December of 2015 probably was a valid and well quite developed market, yet I don't see any huge drops around December 2015 (between 2015-11-02 and 2015-11-09 it went from $501 to $297 but back then this was still considered "normal" I suppose).

Why was it normal back then but not now? The Bitcoin markets may be more mature now by some metrics but they are still illiquid and volatile. This dump looks totally normal to me, though not exactly what I hoped to see.

So how is it different now? What actually triggered the sell-off and why it happened?

Bakkt "sell the news" event, CME futures settlement. In technical terms, the downside break of the triangle triggered sellers, which broke supports in the $9,000s. That support break caused a huge cascade of stop losses, resulting in the crash.

To me this looks like the sell-off during November 2018 when we went from $6300 to $3100 in matter of 4 weeks which made absolutely no sense to me either.

Maybe. I think it's unlikely to play out exactly the same way but time will tell.

[joelsamuya]

yet I don't see any huge drops around December 2015 (between 2015-11-02 and 2015-11-09 it went from $501 to $297 but back then this was still considered "normal" I suppose).

It's more "normal" back then because volatility was expectedly very high, but it's pretty much the same today. Liquidity might got higher, but it's still almost just as volatile.

One thing you should remember: regardless how much bitcoin is being generated per block, heck, it could be .01 BTC per block, but if there isn't enough demand to clear off the sell offers on exchanges, don't really expect a price rise. Though supply is definitely a huge factor, demand is still the biggest factor.

Volatility remains one of the best known hallmarks of Bitcoin and what we are experiencing these past few days are very much manifestation of this characteristic. There are a lot of ideas and speculations as to what really triggered this recent slump but for me it is all about demand and supply. Let's hope that the pullback is in fact a preparation for a good bull run in 2020. It would be interested how Bitcoin will eventually close its price this December but for sure there is a slim chance of a "moon" type run in the remaining months of 2019.

[beerlover]

There are few reasons for it, first of all the whales can make a ton of money from bitcoin going down now. Short futures created that option that didn't existed back in the day in 2015 nor in 2012 which is why I feel like this is the first time they can abuse the market by just shorting and then selling all their coins. They know what will happen when they sell, they have enough bitcoins to drop the market, they know their power so they can literally 100x leverage the market and short right before they sell all their coins and drop the price.

Aside from that there are panic sellers, in 2015 and 2012 there wasn't this much people and money involved, price was lower, now there are more people with more risks so they get scared a lot easier this time around. Those look like the biggest reasons.

[Febo]

Hello Everyone,

I suppose everyone is well aware that the next Bitcoin halving will be around May 2020 which makes it 7 months before the halving.

Previous two halvings happened on 2012-11-28 and 2016-07-09.

Looking 7 months before the halving in 2012 and 2016 I don't see a parallel for the current situation. I'm not sure how much of a market we can talk about in April 2012 but the December of 2015 probably was a valid and well quite developed market, yet I don't see any huge drops around December 2015 (between 2015-11-02 and 2015-11-09 it went from $501 to $297 but back then this was still considered "normal" I suppose).

You should take longer period of time and not just look at 7 months before halving. Look what happened a year until half year or a year and a half until halving. You will see that start of this year from March until June was extremely positive for Bitcoins price. You could say that price was manipulated to grow more then it should. Now that is getting corrected.

[Silberman]

Hello Everyone,

I suppose everyone is well aware that the next Bitcoin halving will be around May 2020 which makes it 7 months before the halving.

Previous two halvings happened on 2012-11-28 and 2016-07-09.

Looking 7 months before the halving in 2012 and 2016 I don't see a parallel for the current situation. I'm not sure how much of a market we can talk about in April 2012 but the December of 2015 probably was a valid and well quite developed market, yet I don't see any huge drops around December 2015 (between 2015-11-02 and 2015-11-09 it went from $501 to $297 but back then this was still considered "normal" I suppose).

So how is it different now? What actually triggered the sell-off and why it happened?

• Is it just random walk and it will recover in 2 weeks?
• Is it the futures market swinging it?
• Is it the deteriorating economic conditions?
• Something else?

To me this looks like the sell-off during November 2018 when we went from $6300 to $3100 in matter of 4 weeks which made absolutely no sense to me either.

Any thoughts especially with references are greatly appreciated.

Reference: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

Your confusion comes from the fact that you are trying to use the past to interpret the future and you expect the markets to move in the same exact way and things do not work like that, the circumstances that happened back in the day are not the same ones that are happening right now, it is better to just watch the price and respond to its movements instead of trying to make sense of all of this since there so many factors to take into consideration that make impossible to draw parallels between those events.

[mersal]

It was not a random price drop,it was highly trapped by the price manipulators to setup a price region of fice digit figures for a while then make it to 20% price drop within days of time frame,but nothing yet too serious for the long term holders since they might be holding bitcoins for atleast from $3000 region in the same year so we are above 200% ROI in this year itself.

[darkangel11]

You did not count in manipulation.

My opinion is that the main difference between the previous markets and previous halvings and what we have now is futures. Back then when big players wanted to make money on fear they had to spread FUD. They would exit their BTC positions making people anxious that there's something the big players know, something that is about to happen. This made them ready to dump, and then whales would put out FUD like about some countries like Korea banning bitcoin. That they have insider information from the government. People dumped whales bought and profited.

Now they don't have to FUD they just put USD into BTC futures and when it's high they short it like now when it was at 10k and when it's low they long it like they did at 3k. There's big money to be made especially when you liquidate idiots who trade with 10x leverage.

[Quidat]

yet I don't see any huge drops around December 2015 (between 2015-11-02 and 2015-11-09 it went from $501 to $297 but back then this was still considered "normal" I suppose).

It's more "normal" back then because volatility was expectedly very high, but it's pretty much the same today. Liquidity might got higher, but it's still almost just as volatile.

One thing you should remember: regardless how much bitcoin is being generated per block, heck, it could be .01 BTC per block, but if there isn't enough demand to clear off the sell offers on exchanges, don't really expect a price rise. Though supply is definitely a huge factor, demand is still the biggest factor.

It would vary all in demand because this would work on the very basic principle of economics.If we cant see those
high number(demands) then we cant expect for a price rise.People do keep speculating the upcoming halving event
possibilities.We cant deny that we have seen or experience the history of price rise of btc after these events but there
were no guarantees that we would able to hit it up once again.

[Kemarit]

The sell off during November-December 2018 was due to the war between BCH and BSV. Some Bitcoin holders sold of their coins to support either of the two faction. And there's also the miners as well, who take sides and shift their gear to either Ver's BCH or CSW BSV.

Of course we can't really say that the first or the second halvening will be the same next year. We could see a massive drop of 20% today and then recover 10% or more in the following weeks. Investors are getting smarter every year and there could be irrational buyers, but they will be in a rude awakening. My point is it's hard to understand how the market really moves and most of the time it invalidate all the factors that we thought are the reasons behind the downward spiral or a massive spike prior or after the halvening event.

[rdluffy]

I don't like the idea of try to predict the future looking for patterns in the past, it doesn't make sense for me
The current market is totally different of the past, and people sold BTC and price falled, just that, no conspirations, no theories...

[iamsange]

Actually i am little forget how price move before 2016 halving, but from what i see it is increased steady but sure until it's ATH. And not pump and dump in short time that come (correct me if i am wrong). That is why price of bitcoin stay longer in high price and then back to this price for now. Maybe dump and pump is something that usually happen and people only need to know the pattern so can make any decision with their investment from it.

[trumpman]

Looking 7 months before the halving in 2012 and 2016 I don't see a parallel for the current situation

Past behavior does not predict future behavior. Btc could go well hit 20 k tomorrow or dump to 1k. Both are highly unlikely but you can never know with bitcoin.  Personally I put some around from 6 and up to 7.5 k just in case it drops more. Just enjoy the ride, buy some with the cost average cost method, be patient and hope for the best  

[eaLiTy]

you are trying to use the past to interpret the future and you expect the markets to move in the same exact way and things do not work like that

If you want to have a statistical calculation you need to have a model to have a reference on how the market will move and we have a small data available as this is a new market, we cannot expect the market to move the same all the time but it is the only reference we can have on how the market used to perform in the past during those situations  .

Past behavior does not predict future behavior. Btc could go well hit 20 k tomorrow or dump to 1k.

It is highly unlikely to happen just like that. The past behavior will give you an idea on how the market will perform, it cannot be an accurate prediction but you can use that as a reference.

[AjithBtc]

you are trying to use the past to interpret the future and you expect the markets to move in the same exact way and things do not work like that

If you want to have a statistical calculation you need to have a model to have a reference on how the market will move and we have a small data available as this is a new market, we cannot expect the market to move the same all the time but it is the only reference we can have on how the market used to perform in the past during those situations  .

Past behavior does not predict future behavior. Btc could go well hit 20 k tomorrow or dump to 1k.

It is highly unlikely to happen just like that. The past behavior will give you an idea on how the market will perform, it cannot be an accurate prediction but you can use that as a reference.

We don't have much of data as mentioned. This is a new market which is very yound. Just ten years have passed from its existence, by this time where it has reached is big. Upon the same we cannot make the predictions, we can take some references from the earlier market movements and predict the future. In this act even the experts predictions won't be cent percent perfect.

[bhabygrim]

Why do people always want to make things complicated?
I mean 20% drop before the next halving is an issue or what?
We have seen it gain more than 20% in the last couple of months surely a 7 months period before halving would also make a great up trend .
We couldn't know what is the real reason behind this 20% price drop because there are so many reason that could be used to it.

[shield132]

Current 20% price drop isn't even in touch with upcoming halving. To be fair I really don't like current situation and kills some hopes in me and also think does the same in a lot of people too and it affect market price even hardly (I still try to keep btc instead of selling them). But if we remember from past, there was some falls before halving and after that it was stable 600$ for a while which killed also hope in some people of further rise because they were expecting huge and immediate rise after halving but as we see it still happened, wasn't quick but rise was huge, yeah, it started from 600$, become 1000, then 2000 and this growth continued, continued until 20K usd which is a huge achievement. I hope we will repeat that again and even with higher price, let's wait for some months, halving will answer our questions.